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« Odgovor #30 poslato: 29.05.2014, 14:26:05 »
Daily Technical Analysis
29th May 2014





EURUSD



Summary
Wednesday EURUSD traded lower as the price action tested the 78.6% Fibonacci support level.

Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.

More recently we have seen an extended move lower that has traded beneath multiple prior pivot levels. The next major price target being 1.3476 being the 3rd February swing low.

Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.

I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3476 support level.

Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action trade back up to the 1.3670 level.


GBPUSD



Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD traded lower as the price action tested the 1.6700 support level.

Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. Yesterday’s move lower traded aggressively as the price action traded under the 1.6731 level being the minor pivot low of the 15th May. This move lower does put a question mark on the health of the daily up trend.

From a weekly perspective the price action is now trading under the 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which comes in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.

Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Wednesday’s candle range.
 
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6700 support level.

Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action test the 1.6795 level.






USDJPY



Summary
Wednesday USDJPY tested the 101.70 support level as the price action traded within the 8 and 34 period daily moving averages.
 
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. I am now monitoring the price action for signs of a continuation under the 101.32. A failure to sustain a move beneath this level would put forward the possibility that the breach of the 101.32 level was a fake break down which could lead to further a resumption of the prior uptrend.

Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly as the price action tests within Wednesday’s candle ranges.

Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.70 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY test the 34 period daily moving averages.
 


USDCHF



Summary
Wednesday USDCHF traded higher as the price action tested the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.
 
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.

Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
 
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and retest Fibonacci resistance.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the 8 period daily moving averages.


Gold



Summary
Wednesday Gold continued to trade lower as the price action broke under the 61.8% Fibonacci support level.
 
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.

Focus on today
This morning Gold has open negatively as the price action trades below Wednesday’s candle ranges. 
 
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1250.00 support level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the averages.


USDCAD



Summary
Wednesday USDCAD experience a positive day as the price action traded above the prior broken downward sloping trend line and tested the 8 period daily moving averages.

Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.

More recently USDCAD has corrected back to and breach both the 8 period daily moving averages and trend line resistance. The price action rejected its attempt to breach the 34 period daily moving averages. A failure to sustain a move above this average opens up the possibility of a resumption of the daily down trend.

A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.
 
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietley as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
 
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0790 support level.

Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the broken 34 period daily moving averages.



AUDUSD




Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD closed lower as the price action rejected a move into the 8 period daily moving averages.

Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.

The downside break opens up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.

Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened strongly as the price trades above Wednesday’s candle ranges.
 
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.

Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.


Oil



Summary
Wednesday Oil broke lower as the price action traded under the 8 period daily moving averages. The move lower was only halted when the price action tested the 103.00 support level.

Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.

The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level. I am monitoring the price action for a move up to the 105.00 level being the April high.

Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action at the lows Wednesday’s candle range.

Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.

Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil trade up to the 105.00 level being the April high.


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« Odgovor #31 poslato: 02.06.2014, 18:26:51 »
Daily Technical Analysis
2nd June 2014




EURUSD




Summary
Friday EURUSD reversed its downward momentum as the price action traded above the highs of the previous two days ranges. The up move was only halted at the 8 period daily moving averages.

Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.

More recently we have seen an extended move lower that has traded beneath multiple prior pivot levels. The next major price target being 1.3476 being the 3rd February swing low.

Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Friday’s candle range.

I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3550 support level.

Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action trade back up to the 1.3670 level.


GBPUSD



Summary
Friday GBPUSD traded higher as the price action bounced off the  1.6700 support level.

Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. However the recent move lower has seen the price action trade under the 1.6731 level being the minor pivot low of the 15th May. This move lower does put a question mark on the health of the daily up trend.

From a weekly perspective the price action is now trading under the 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which come in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.

Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Friday’s candle range.
 
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6795 resistance level.

Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6700 level.






USDJPY



Summary
Friday USDJPY experience a quiet day as the price action initially tested but closed above the 101.70 support level.
 
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. I am now monitoring the price action for signs of a continuation under the 101.32. A failure to sustain a move beneath this level would put forward the possibility that the breach of the 101.32 level was a fake break down which could lead to further a resumption of the prior uptrend.

Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened bullishly as the price action trades above Friday’s candle ranges.

Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY test the 101.70 support level.
 


USDCHF



Summary
Friday USDCHF traded traded lower as the price action tested and closed under the 8 period daily moving averages.
 
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.

Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Friday’s candle ranges.
 
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and retest Fibonacci resistance.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.



Gold



Summary
Friday Gold continued to trade lower as the price action tested the 1250 support level.
 
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.

Focus on today
This morning Gold has open bearishly as the price action trades within Friday’s candle ranges. 
 
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to close under the 1250.00 support level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the averages.


USDCAD



Summary
Friday USDCAD experienced a quiet day with the price action being squeezed between the downward sloping trend line and the 8 period daily moving averages.

Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.

More recently USDCAD has corrected back to and breach both the 8 period daily moving averages and trend line resistance. The price action rejected its attempt to breach the 34 period daily moving averages. A failure to sustain a move above this average opens up the possibility of a resumption of the daily down trend.

A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.
 
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietley as the price action trades within Friday’s candle range.
 
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0790 support level.

Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the broken 34 period daily moving averages.




AUDUSD



Summary
Friday AUDUSD attempted to test the 34 period daily moving averages. However by the close of business the price action close near its open.

Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.

The downside break opened up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.

However the recent prior price action has had the effect of creating a bullish consolidation pattern at the highs of this daily up trend.

Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bearishly as the price trades under Friday’s candle ranges.
 
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential a test of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.

Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trade back up to the last weeks highs.


Oil



Summary
Friday Oil traded lower with the price action closing under both the 103.00 support level and the 8 period daily moving averages.

Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.

The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level. I am monitoring the price action for a move up to the 105.00 level being the April high.

Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened bullishly as the price action bounces of the 103.00 support level.

Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 8 period daily moving averages.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 level being the April high.


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« Odgovor #32 poslato: 05.06.2014, 15:51:38 »
Daily Technical Analysis
5th June 2014









EURUSD



Summary
Wednesday EURUSD traded lower as the price action rejected the 8 period daily moving averages.

Market overview

The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.

More recently we have seen an extended move lower that has traded beneath multiple prior pivot levels. The next major price target being 1.3476 being the 3rd February swing low.

Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.

I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3550 support level.

Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action trade back up to the 1.3670 level.




GBPUSD



Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD again tested the 8 period daily moving averages however the price action was not able to sustain the move higher and ny the close of business finished the day marginally higher.

Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. However the recent move lower has seen the price action trade under the 1.6731 level being the minor pivot low of the 15th May. This move lower does put a question mark on the health of the daily up trend.

From a weekly perspective the price action is now trading under the 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which come in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.

Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
 
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6700 support level.

Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action test the 1.6795 level.








USDJPY



Summary
Wednesday USDJPY continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 102.14 level being the minor swing high of the 27th May.
 
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. I am now monitoring the price action for signs of a continuation under the 101.32. A failure to sustain a move beneath this level would put forward the possibility that the breach of the 101.32 level was a fake break down which could lead to further a resumption of the prior uptrend.

More recently yesterday’s price action has traded above the 102.14 level being the minor swing high of the 27th May. This adds further impetus to the long side of the trade.

Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades with Wednesday’s candle ranges.

Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 103.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY test the 101.70 support level.
 




USDCHF



Summary
Wednesday USDCHF continues to trade around the 8 period daily moving averages.

Market overview

The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving within the Fibonacci resistance area. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.

Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
 
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher within the Fibonacci area and test the 0.9020 resistance level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.





Gold



Summary
Wednesday Gold experience a quiet day at the price action traded within the previous 3 days ranges.
 
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.

Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges. 
 
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to continue its move under the under the 1250.00 support level and test yesterdays lows.

Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the averages.






USDCAD



Summary
Wednesday USDCAD traded higher as the price action tested the 1.0940 resistance and closed above the 34 period daily moving averages.

Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a daily down trend however the weekly uptrend continues to trade positively. A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.

However the recent price action has seen a double bottom form. This pattern has been confirmed with USDCAD trading higher.

Focus on today

This morning USDCAD has opened bullishly as the price action trades at the highs Wednesday’s candle range.
 
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0940 resistance level.

Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the 1.0790 support level.






AUDUSD



Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD continued to trade between the averages and the converging triangle formation.

Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.

The downside break opened up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.

The recent prior price action has had the effect of creating a bullish consolidation pattern at the highs of this daily up trend.

Focus on today

This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
 
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential a re-test of the 34 period daily moving averages.

Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.




Oil





Summary
Wednesday Oil tested the 8 period daily moving averages but was unable to sustain higher prices and by the end of business closed the day lower.

Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.

The recent price action has seen OILUSD trade with a very large converging triangle formation.
 
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Wednesday’s candle range.

Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 8 period daily moving averages and 103.00 levels.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade test to the 34 period daily moving averages.


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« Odgovor #33 poslato: 10.06.2014, 16:08:31 »
Daily Technical Analysis
10th June 2014







EURUSD



Summary
Although Monday was a Bank Holiday for most of Continental Europe EURUSD did see a good range day. The price action initially tested the 1.3670 resistance level but was not able to sustain a move above this level. The failure to move higher eventually led to a strong down move with the price action closing under the 8 period daily moving averages.

Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.

Last week’s price action and the rejection of the 1.3550 support level have put a question mark on the daily down trend.

From the perspective of a lower time frame the 4 hour chart on a swing bias has changed to up however yesterday we did see a strong corrective pullback. In remains to be seen if this pulls back is nothing more a controlled correction which will revert back to the upside. I am therefore monitoring the 1.3550 level for potential signs that EURUSD can hold above this level and trade higher.

Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows at the lows of Monday’s candle range.

I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3550 support level.

Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action test the 8 period daily moving averages.




GBPUSD



Summary
Monday GBPUSD had a quiet day as the price action closing marginally above the 1.6795 support level.

Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. More recently we have seen a corrective zigzag formation set up which is made up of lower highs and lower lows. A break below the 1.6700 support level would put a question mark over the current daily up trend as this would most probably change the trend on a swing basis to down.

From an intraday point of view the price action on both a swing and moving averages basis on a 4 hour chart is trading in an uptrend.
 
From a weekly perspective the price action has traded under its 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which come in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.

Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
 
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of 34 period daily moving averages.

Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade down to the 1.6700 level.



USDJPY



Summary
Monday USDJPY experinced a quiet day following its failure to to sustain a move towards the 103.00 level. 
 
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. The price action over the past few trading sessions has seen a move above both the 102.13 and 102.36 pivot highs. This could indicate that the daily trend could be coming back into line with the bullish weekly trend.

Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades under the 8 period daily moving averages.

Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.

Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back into the direction of the 103.00 level.
 


USDCHF



Summary
Monday USDCHF bounced higher as the price action bounced off the 0.8930 support level and closed above the 8 period daily moving averages.
 
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction.

There has been a great deal of recent volatility with the 0.9037 level being the high of last week’s spike being a line that needs to be crossed if we are to see further strength in the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc.

As such USDCHF continues to trade within a weekly downtrend and the price action has moved back into the Fibonacci resistance areas. I am therefore monitoring the possibility of a rotation of the price action back to the short side.

Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of Monday’s candle ranges.
 
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially test last week’s highs.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF break down from the Fibonacci area and trade down to the 34 period daily moving averages.


Gold



Summary
Monday Gold had a quiet day as the price action traded within a two day range.
 
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.

Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle ranges. 
 
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to continue its move under the under the 1250.00 support level and test yesterdays lows.

Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1270.00 resistance level.


USDCAD



Summary
Monday USDCAD consolidated around its averages as the price action continued to test the 1.0940 resistance level.

Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a daily down trend however the weekly uptrend continues to trade positively. A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.

However the recent price action has seen a double bottom form. This pattern has been confirmed with USDCAD trading higher.
 
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened negativley as the price action trades below Monday’s candle range.
 
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a re-test 1.0940 resistance level.

Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the 1.0790 support level.









AUDUSD



Summary
Monday AUDUSD had a quiet day as the price action traded within the previous days range.

Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.

The downside break opened up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.

The recent prior price action has had the effect of creating a bullish consolidation pattern at the highs of this daily up trend.

Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bullishly as the price action tests trend line resistance.
 
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential break above the triangle top.

Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.


Oil



Summary
Monday Oil had a strong day as the price action traded up to the highs of the triangle top.

Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.

The recent price action has seen OILUSD trade within a very large converging triangle formation.
 
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened bullishly as the price action trades above Monday’s candle range and tests the triangle top and the 105.00 level.

Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the triangle top and the 105.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 8 period daily moving averages.


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« Odgovor #34 poslato: 11.06.2014, 19:45:01 »
Daily Technical Analysis
11th June 2014




EURUSD



Summary
Tuesday EURUSD continued to trade lower as the price action tested and closed under the 1.3550 support level.

Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.

Last week’s price action and the rejection of the 1.3550 support level have put a question mark against the health daily down trend.

From the perspective of a lower time frame the 4 hour chart on a swing bias continues to point up however a breach of the 1.3500 level would turn the intraday bias to negative.

From a recent perspective what is of great interest the range of the 5th June candle. The range of this bar is a large 165 pips.  Therefore a move above or below the high of this range should give an indication of the direction of the medium term price action with the key levels being 1.3670 up and 1.3500 down

Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.

I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3500 pivot level.

Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action trade back to the 8 period daily moving averages.


GBPUSD



Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD traded lower as the price action failed to sustain a move above the 34 period daily moving averages.

Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. More recently we have seen a corrective zigzag formation set up which is made up of lower highs and lower lows. A break below the 1.6700 support level would put a question mark over the current daily up trend as this would most probably change the trend on a swing basis to down.

From an intraday point of view the price action on both a swing and moving averages basis on a 4 hour chart is trading in an uptrend.
 
From a weekly perspective the price action has traded under its 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which come in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.

Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
 
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of 1.6750 resistance level.

Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade down to the 1.6700 level.



USDJPY



Summary
Tuesday USDJPY experinced another quiet day following its failure to to sustain a move towards the 103.00 level. 
 
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. The price action over the past few trading sessions has seen a move above both the 102.13 and 102.36 pivot highs. This could indicate that the daily trend could be coming back into line with the bullish weekly trend.

Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades under the 8 period daily moving averages.

Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.

Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back into the direction of the 103.00 level.
 


USDCHF



Summary
Tuesday USDCHF traded higher as the price action moved towards a potential test of the 0.9020 resistance level.
 
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction.

There has been a great deal of recent volatility with the 0.9037 level being the high of last week’s spike being a line that needs to be crossed if we are to see further strength in the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc.

As such USDCHF continues to trade within a weekly downtrend and the price action has moved back into the Fibonacci resistance areas. I am therefore monitoring the possibility of a rotation of the price action back to the short side.

Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle ranges.
 
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially test the 0.9020 resistance level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF break down from the Fibonacci area and trade down to the 0.8930 support level.





Gold



Summary
Tuesday Gold experienced a strong up day as the price action traded and closed and the previous 3 day range.
 
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.

Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle ranges. 
 
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to continue its move under the under the 1270.00 resistance level and test yesterdays lows.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back down to the 1250.00 support level.


USDCAD



Summary
Tuesday USDCAD continues to consolidate around its averages in what was a quiet days trading.

Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a daily down trend however the weekly uptrend continues to trade positively. A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.

However the recent price action has seen a double bottom form. This pattern has been confirmed with USDCAD trading higher.
 
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietly as the price action trades below Tuesday’s candle range.
 
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a re-test 1.0940 resistance level.

Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the 1.0790 support level.



AUDUSD



Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD had a strong up day as the price action traded and closed above trendline resistance.

Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.

The downside break opened up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.

However the recent prior price action has had the effect of creating a bullish consolidation pattern at the highs of this daily up trend with yesterday’s price actually breaking and closing above this price pattern.

Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bullishly as the price action tests the 0.9390 resistance level.
 
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential continuation above the triangle top.

Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.


Oil



Summary
Tuesday Oil attempted but failed to sustain a move above the 105.00 resistance level.

Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.

The recent price action has seen OILUSD trade within a very large converging triangle formation.
 
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened bullishly as the price action trades with Tuesday’s candle range and tests the triangle top and the 105.00 level.

Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the triangle top and the 105.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 8 period daily moving averages.


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« Odgovor #35 poslato: 13.06.2014, 17:25:07 »
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« Odgovor #36 poslato: 02.07.2014, 18:38:39 »
Intra Day Fractal Analysis
2nd July 2014







Currency pair: EURUSD



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Price action: Moving averages have turned negative with the price action beginning to trend lower
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3675
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3685
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3678, R1 1.3704, R2 1.3730, S1 1.3653, S2 1.3627




Currency pair: GBPUSD



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as a support area
Probable scenario: Long above 1.7152
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.7139
Intraday levels: Open: 1.7149, R1 1.7184, R2 1.7219, S1 1.7114, S2 1.7079



Currency pair: USDJPY



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as a support area
Probable scenario: Long above 101.65
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.51
Intraday levels: Open: 101.52, R1 101.70, R2 101.88, S1 101.33, S2 101.15



Currency pair: USDCHF



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Moving averages have turned positive with the price action beginning to trend higher
Probable scenario: Long above 0.8879
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.8872
Intraday levels: Open: 0.8874, R1 0.8894, R2 0.8914, S1 0.8854, S2 0.8835





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« Odgovor #37 poslato: 03.07.2014, 21:53:06 »
Intra Day Fractal Analysis
for 3rd July 2014





Currency pair: EURUSD



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Price action: Price action has corrected back up to the negatively layered moving averages and these could act as an area of resistance
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3646
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3660
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3658, R1 1.3683, R2 1.3708, S1 1.3633, S2 1.3608



Currency pair: GBPUSD



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as an area of support
Probable scenario: Long above 1.7167
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.7149
Intraday levels: Open: 1.7164, R1 1.7197, R2 1.7230, S1 1.7131, S2 1.7098



Currency pair: USDJPY



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as an area of support
Probable scenario: Long above 101.94
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.75
Intraday levels: Open: 101.77, R1 101.95, R2 102.14, S1 101.58, S2 101.40



Currency pair: USDCHF



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Moving averages have turned positive with the price action beginning to trend higher
Probable scenario: Long above 0.8894
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.8887
Intraday levels: Open: 0.8888, R1 0.8907, R2 0.8926, S1 0.8869, S2 0.8850





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« Odgovor #38 poslato: 04.07.2014, 13:15:15 »
Intra Day Fractal Analysis
for 4th July 2014





Currency pair: EURUSD



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Price action: Price action trading lower following a move back to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3601
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3611
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3610, R1 1.3636, R2 1.3662, S1 1.3583, S2 1.3557



Currency pair: GBPUSD



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as an area of support
Probable scenario: Long above 1.7180
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.7149
Intraday levels: Open: 1.7154, R1 1.7188, R2 1.7223, S1 1.7120, S2 1.7085



Currency pair: USDJPY



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as an area of support
Probable scenario: Long above 102.22
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 102.17
Intraday levels: Open: 102.18, R1 102.38, R2 102.57, S1 101.99, S2 101.79




Currency pair: USDCHF



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action trading higher following a move back to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.8938
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.8930
Intraday levels: Open: 0.8932, R1 0.8952, R2 0.8972, S1 0.8911, S2 0.8891


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« Odgovor #39 poslato: 09.07.2014, 14:37:55 »
Intra Day Fractal Analysis





EURUSD



GBPUSD



USDJPY



USDCHF


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« Odgovor #40 poslato: 24.07.2014, 17:36:35 »
London Open Intra Day Analysis 24.07.2014

The London open






Currency pair: EURUSD



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: Price action trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages and this morning has already tested R1.
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3450
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3464
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3462, R1 1.3484, R2 1.3506, S1 1.3440, S2 1.3418



Currency pair: GBPUSD



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading back into the negatively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.7023
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.7051
Intraday levels: Open: 1.7042, R1 1.7074, R2 1.7106, S1 1.7010, S2 1.6978



Currency pair: USDJPY



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: Price action trading back into positively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Long above 101.58
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.45
Intraday levels: Open: 101.48, R1 101.64, R2 101.80, S1 101.31, S2 101.16



Currency pair: USDCHF



Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action trading back into positively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9031
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9020
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9022, R1 0.9037, R2 0.9053, S1 0.9006, S2 0.8991






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« Odgovor #41 poslato: 25.07.2014, 18:50:28 »
London Open Intra Day Analysis 25.07.2014

The London open




EURUSD




Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: Moving averages have just turned positive with the price action trending higher.
Probable scenario: Long above 1.3473
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.3457
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3463, R1 1.3485, R2 1.3507, S1 1.3441, S2 1.3419




GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading back into the negatively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6985
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6993
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6986, R1 1.7019, R2 1.7053, S1 1.6952, S2 1.6919



USDJPY




Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: Price action trading back into positively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Long above 101.80
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.70
Intraday levels: Open: 101.80, R1 101.98, R2 102.15, S1 101.63, S2 101.46




USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Neutral
Price action: Moving averages are attempting to turn negative as the rice action moves lower.
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9030
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9007
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9025, R1 0.9040, R2 0.9056, S1 0.9009, S2 0.8994






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« Odgovor #42 poslato: 28.07.2014, 10:45:09 »
London Open Intra Day Analysis 28.07.2014



The London open





EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading back into the negatively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3426
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3436
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3431, R1 1.3453, R2 1.3476, S1 1.3408, S2 1.3385



GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading back into the negatively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6974
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6996
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6978, R1 1.7009, R2 1.7040, S1 1.6946, S2 1.6915



USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: Price action trading back into positively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Long above 101.86
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.74
Intraday levels: Open: 101.78, R1 101.94, R2 102.11, S1 101.62, S2 101.46




USDCHF




Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: Price action trading back into positively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9052
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9043
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9045, R1 0.9061, R2 0.9076, S1 0.9029, S2 0.9014






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« Odgovor #43 poslato: 29.07.2014, 17:11:24 »
London Open Intra Day Analysis 29.07.2014

The London open





EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3420
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3444
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3438, R1 1.3458, R2 1.3479, S1 1.3417, S2 1.3396



GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6966
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6989
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6982, R1 1.7011, R2 1.7040, S1 1.6953, S2 1.6924



USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The price action is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting pull back
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.82
Intraday levels: Open: 101.85, R1 102.00, R2 102.16, S1 101.70, S2 101.55



USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: The price action is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting pull back
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9038
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9039, R1 0.9053, R2 0.9068, S1 0.9024, S2 0.9009






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« Odgovor #44 poslato: 30.07.2014, 18:37:47 »
London Open Intra Day Analysis 30.07.2014

The London open






EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3400
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3416
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3408, R1 1.3429, R2 1.3449, S1 1.3387, S2 1.3366



GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6940
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6955
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6943, R1 1.6972, R2 1.7002, S1 1.6914, S2 1.6884



USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The price action is correcting down towards the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 102.16
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 102.03
Intraday levels: Open: 102.11, R1 102.27, R2 102.42, S1 101.95, S2 101.80



USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: The price action is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9074
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9064
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9069, R1 0.9084, R2 0.9099, S1 0.9053, S2 0.9038