FOREX SRBIJA
Analize i predviđanja => Tehnička analiza => Temu započeo: ACFX AtlasCapital 03.04.2014, 00:20:14
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Daily Technical Analysis
2nd April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s16.postimg.org/8oznjrk1x/eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD continued to traded higher following its bounce off the 50 to 61.8% Fibonacci support area. This lead to an upward penetration of the moving averages.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. However there has been a recent strong correction which has had the effect of creating a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is marked by the ellipse. There has been a break beneath the right shoulder could see EURUSD trade down to trend line support.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened positively as it trades within the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.3875 being the 24th March pivot high.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that this pair trades back to Fibonacci support.
GBPUSD
(http://s16.postimg.org/n5mwyc9j9/gbpusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD continued to trade above the above the prior broken up trend line.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
More recently GBPUSD has experienced a strong downside correction and this has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle consolidation pattern. As GBPUSD has bow bounced off Fibonacci support and with the weekly trend pointing up I would expect this triangle pattern when it breaks to trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of the recent up move.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6700 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6570 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s16.postimg.org/nekho9mbp/usdjpydaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY continued to trade higher as it approached the 103.76 level being the prior swing high of the 7th March.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened strongly with the price action penetrating the 103.76 level being the prior swing high of the 7th March.
Today I am monitoring a potential close above the 103.76 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade down to the 103.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://s16.postimg.org/fe66zs5dx/usdchfdaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF continued to reject higher prices at the 8 to 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. I am therefore monitoring signs for a base to be built that will allow for further upside move and a test of the downward sloping trend line. The bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern that is forming puts the price pattern in line with this hypothesis. However daily and weekly bias does continue to be fixed to the downside therefore shorting rallies is still probably the most logical strategy to adopt.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened negatively as within Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a move down from moving average value area.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF test last week’s high.
Gold
(http://s16.postimg.org/46srdxemd/golddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Gold traded lower as the preice action penetraded the 50% Fibonacci level.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The break above the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened positively as the price within the previous days candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1270.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade up to the 1310.00 level.
Oil
(http://s16.postimg.org/b2hlaryh1/wtidaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Oil broke lower as the price action slashed through the 100.00 level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened negatively with the price action trading at the bottom of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 98.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil trade back up to the 100 level.
AUDUSD
(http://s16.postimg.org/ycr5splj9/audusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD managed to trade above last weeks high but was not able to sustain higher prices and eventually closed the day down.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietley as the price action trades with Tuesday’s range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move to the 61.8 Fibonacci level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests 8 period moving averages.
Dow30
(http://s16.postimg.org/yffmtaekl/ws30daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Dow30 continued to trade higher as the price action tested the 16,570 resistance level.
Market overview
Yesterday’s move above the 16,514 being the 7th March swing high has changed the daily trend to up. This has put the daily trend in gear with the weekly trend.
Focus on today
This morning Dow30 haso pened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of the previous days candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential re-test of the 16,570 resistance level.
Alternatively if Dow30 fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that Dow30 tests the 8 period moving averages.
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Daily Technical Analysis
3rd April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s15.postimg.org/8yf8k88nv/eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday EURUSD intially traded higher but was not able to close above the moving averages.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. However there has been a recent strong correction which has had the effect of creating a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is marked by the ellipse. There has been a break beneath the right shoulder could see EURUSD trade down to trend line support.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened negatively as it trades within the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move back to Fibonacci support.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility tests 1.3875 being the 24th March pivot
GBPUSD
(http://s15.postimg.org/avbyoszbv/gbpusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD continued to trade above the above the prior broken up trend line.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
More recently GBPUSD has experienced a strong downside correction and this has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle consolidation pattern. As GBPUSD has bow bounced off Fibonacci support and with the weekly trend pointing up I would expect this triangle pattern when it breaks to trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of the recent up move.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6700 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6570 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s15.postimg.org/ccxf0d42j/usdjpydaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDJPY continued to trade higher as it penetrated the 103.76 level being the prior swing high of the 7th March.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly with the price action trading at the highs of yesterday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a move towards the 104.85 level being the prior swing high of the 25th January
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade down to the 103.40 level.
USDCHF
(http://s15.postimg.org/xdngla7kr/usdchfdaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCHF the prior two day down move as it slashed through and closed above the 8 to 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. I am therefore monitoring signs for a base to be built that will allow for further upside move and a test of the downward sloping trend line. The bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern that is forming puts the price pattern in line with this hypothesis. However daily and weekly bias does continue to be fixed to the downside therefore shorting rallies is still probably the most logical strategy to adopt.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially trade up to last week’s high.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the moving averages.
Gold
(http://s15.postimg.org/f0mvapx3v/golddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Gold bounce higher off the 50% Fibonacci support level.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The break above the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened positively as the price action trades at the highs of the previous days candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to trade up to the 1310.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to penetrate the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1270.00 level.
Oil
(http://s15.postimg.org/hx9wb02xn/wtidaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Oil continued to trade lower as the price action closed at the lows of the previous days range.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly with the price action trading within Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 100.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 98.00 level.
AUDUSD
(http://s15.postimg.org/y702dwdln/audusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD experienced a quiet day as it traded down to the 8 period moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened negativley as the price action tests the 8 period moving averages.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of trend line support.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 61.8 Fibonacci resistance level.
Dow30
(http://s15.postimg.org/ur7y4cgd7/ws30daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Dow30 continued to trade higher as the price action tested the 16,570 resistance level.
Market overview
The move above the 16,514 being the 7th March swing high has changed the daily trend to up. This has put the daily trend in gear with the weekly trend.
Focus on today
This morning Dow30 haso pened quietly as the price action trades within the previous days candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential re-test of the 16,570 resistance level.
Alternatively if Dow30 fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that Dow30 trades down to the 16,500 support level.
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Necu da serem po necijem trudu ali ovo je forum fxsrbija ne vidim razlog da se analize pisu na eng. Drugo izgleda kao copy/paste sa drugog stranog foruma sto je malo smesno sa obzirom da se radi o reklamiranju brokerske kuce da kazem sa ovih prostora. pozdrav
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Daily Technical Analysis
4th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s11.postimg.org/o0exdbs43/eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Thursday EURUSD broke down from its averages as the price action traded down to Fibonacci support.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. However there has been a recent strong correction which has had the effect of creating a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is marked by the ellipse. The downside target for a completion of the head and shoulders pattern is in the region of the 1.3420 support level.
However as the weekly chart continues to have a positive bias I am monitoring signs for a base to build within the Fibonacci support area.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened negatively as it trades at the lows of the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential bounce off trend line and Fibonacci support.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility tests trend line support.
GBPUSD
(http://s11.postimg.org/gcwm8ritv/gbpusddaily.png)
Summary
Thursday GBPUSD traded and closed under the prior broken up trend line as the price action traded down to the 1.6570 support level.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
More recently GBPUSD has experienced a strong downside correction and this has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle consolidation pattern. As GBPUSD has bow bounced off Fibonacci support and with the weekly trend pointing up I would expect this triangle pattern when it breaks to trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of yesterday’s range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6570 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action test the 1.6700 resistance level.
USDJPY
(http://s11.postimg.org/lyefz2u4z/usdjpydaily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDJPY continued to trade higher as it closed for the second day above the 103.76 level being the prior swing high of the 7th March.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly with the price action trading within yesterday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a move towards the 104.85 level being the prior swing high of the 25th January
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade down to the 103.40 level.
USDCHF
(http://s11.postimg.org/g8y7ernyr/usdchfdaily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDCHF traded and closed above the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. The upside move continued all day until the price action was held at the 50% Fibonacci level, the 0.8930 resistance level and trend line resistance.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has now broken to the upside I am now monitoring the possibility that this pattern reaches its upside target of 0.9080.
However daily and weekly bias does continue to be fixed to the downside therefore shorting rallies is still probably the most logical strategy to adopt. I am therefore monitoring the price action as it tests the downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance for signs of a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened positively as it trades at the highs of Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially test the 0.8930 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the moving averages.
Gold
(http://s11.postimg.org/joqbobl77/golddaily.png)
Summary
Thursday Gold following its bounce off the 50% Fibonacci support level failed to break above the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades within the previous 3 days candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to trade up to the 1310.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to penetrate the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1270.00 level.
Oil
(http://s11.postimg.org/bsafttz4j/wtidaily.png)
Summary
Thursday Oil had a strong up day as the price action traded back up to its averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened positively with the price action trades above Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 level.
AUDUSD
(http://s11.postimg.org/p6nipv5sj/audusddaily.png)
Summary
Thursday AUDUSD experienced a quiet day as it traded around the 8 period moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietley as the price action tests the 8 period moving averages.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of trend line support.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 61.8 Fibonacci resistance level.
Dow30
(http://s11.postimg.org/nz4zjwqab/ws30daily.png)
Summary
Thursday Dow30 continued to trade higher as the price action tested the 16,570 resistance level.
Market overview
The move above the 16,514 being the 7th March swing high has changed the daily trend to up. This has put the daily trend in gear with the weekly trend.
Focus on today
This morning Dow30 haso opened quietly as the price action trades above the 16,570 level and within the previous days candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential close above the 16,570 resistance level.
Alternatively if Dow30 fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that Dow30 trades down to the 16,500 support level.
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Daily Technical Analysis
7th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s17.postimg.org/b3m79mtj3/eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Friday EURUSD continued to trade lower as the price action traded down to Fibonacci, trend line and the 1.3670 support level.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. However there has been a recent strong correction which has had the effect of creating a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is marked by the ellipse. The downside target for a completion of the head and shoulders pattern is in the region of the 1.3420 support level.
However as the weekly chart continues to have a positive bias I am monitoring signs for a base to build within the Fibonacci support area.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as it trades within the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential bounce off trend line and Fibonacci support.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility tests trend line support.
GBPUSD
(http://s17.postimg.org/w1sd7ptdr/gbpusddaily.png)
Summary
Friday GBPUSD continued to trade lower as the price action tested the 1.6570 support level.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
More recently GBPUSD has experienced a strong downside correction and this has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle consolidation pattern. As GBPUSD has bow bounced off Fibonacci support and with the weekly trend pointing up I would expect this triangle pattern when it breaks to trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within the previous days range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6570 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action test the 1.6700 resistance level.
USDJPY
(http://s17.postimg.org/y2iwsjpj3/usdjpydaily.png)
Summary
Friday USDJPY broke down from its highs as the price action traded down to the 8 period moving averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened bearishly with the price action breaching the 8 period daily moving averages and tests the 103.00 support level.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 103.00 support level and possible move to the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY test the 103.40 resistance level.
USDCHF
(http://s17.postimg.org/mrg946inz/usdchfdaily.png)
Summary
Friday USDCHF attempted to traded above trend line resistance but was not able to hold above it.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has now broken to the upside I am now monitoring the possibility that this pattern reaches its upside target of 0.9080.
However daily and weekly bias does continue to be fixed to the downside therefore shorting rallies is still probably the most logical strategy to adopt. I am therefore monitoring the price action as it tests the downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance for signs of a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Friday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially retest the 0.8930 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the moving averages.
Gold
(http://s17.postimg.org/l4r1iy6m7/golddaily.png)
Summary
Friday Gold continued to trade higher as the price action bounced off Fibonacci support and closed well above the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of Friday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to trade up to the 1310.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade down to the 1270.00 level.
Oil
(http://s17.postimg.org/fhuolh43j/wtidaily.png)
Summary
Friday Oil had a strong up day as the price action closed above its averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Friday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 102.20 level being a prior swing high.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 level.
AUDUSD
(http://s17.postimg.org/67ikhxtdr/audusddaily.png)
Summary
Friday AUDUSD bounce higher off the 8 period daily moving averages as the price action closed above Tuesday’s high.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietley as the price action trades at the highs of Friday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move to the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the 8 period daily moving averages.
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Daily Technical Analysis
8th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s15.postimg.org/7clb858yj/eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Monday EURUSD bounce higher off Fibonacci, trend line and the 1.3670 support level as the price action tested the 8 period moving averages.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. However there has been a recent strong correction which has had the effect of creating a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is marked by the ellipse. The downside target for a completion of the head and shoulders pattern is in the region of the 1.3420 support level.
However as the weekly chart continues to have a positive bias I am monitoring signs for a base to build within the Fibonacci support area.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 8 period daily moving average and move to the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility tests trend line support.
GBPUSD
(http://s15.postimg.org/8swtqabvf/gbpusddaily.png)
Summary
Monday GBPUSD bounced higher off the 1.6570 support level as the price action tested the moving averages.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
More recently GBPUSD has experienced a strong downside correction and this has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle consolidation pattern. As GBPUSD has bow bounced off Fibonacci support and with the weekly trend pointing up I would expect this triangle pattern when it breaks to trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of the previous days range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the moving averages and move to up to the prior broken up trend line.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6570 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s15.postimg.org/6cv0cftsr/usdjpydaily.png)
Summary
Monday USDJPY continued to trade lower as the price action closed beneath the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing the third day of a strong corrective pull back.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened bearishly with the price action breaching the 8 103.00 support level.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a close beneath the 103.00 support level and possible move to the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY test the 103.40 resistance level.
USDCHF
(http://s15.postimg.org/51ruhpnkr/usdchfdaily.png)
Summary
Monday USDCHF experienced a strong downside correction off trend line resistance with the price action ultimatley closing just above the 8 period daily moving
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has now broken to the upside I am now monitoring the possibility that this pattern reaches its upside target of 0.9080.
However daily and weekly bias does continue to be fixed to the downside therefore shorting rallies is still probably the most logical strategy to adopt. I am therefore monitoring the price action as it tests the downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance for signs of a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades below Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially test of the 8 period daily moving averages and a move down to the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF retest trend line resistance.
Gold
(http://s15.postimg.org/7gjq253tn/golddaily.png)
Summary
Monday Gold was moderatley bearish day as the price action closed lower but at the highs of Friday’s range.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened strongly as the price action tests the 1310.00 resistance level and trades above Friday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to trade up to the 1310.00 level and move to the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade down to the 8 period moving averages.
Oil
(http://s15.postimg.org/wqehp8al7/wtidaily.png)
Summary
Monday Oil traded within a volatile range around its averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened bullishly as the price action trades above its averages.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 102.20 level being a prior swing high.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 level.
AUDUSD
(http://s15.postimg.org/66lwn3a1n/audusddaily.png)
Summary
Monday AUDUSD experienced a moderatley down down as the price action traded within Friday’s candle range and closed above the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bullishly as the price action trades at the highs of Friday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move to the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the 8 period daily moving averages.
Dow30
(http://s15.postimg.org/8k3ue3ogr/us30daily.png)
Summary
Monday Dow30 continued to trade lower as the price action corrected down to the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The move above the 16,514 being the 7th March swing high has changed the daily trend to up. This has put the daily trend in gear with the weekly trend. However we have now seen a strong two day corrective down move that has take the price action back down to the 16,245 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Dow30 has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of the previous days candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 16,245 support level.
Alternatively if Dow30 fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that Dow30 tests the 8 period daily moving averages and then trades up to the 34 period daily moving averages.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
9th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s8.postimg.org/olzhhw1h1/eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD continued to trade higher as the price action traded upto the 34 period moving averages.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. However there has been a recent strong correction which has had the effect of creating a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is marked by the ellipse. The downside target for a completion of the head and shoulders pattern is in the region of the 1.3420 support level.
However as the weekly chart continues to have a positive bias I am monitoring signs for a base to build within the Fibonacci support area.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 34 period daily moving averages and move to the 1.3875 level being the 24th March prior pivot high.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a move back to the 50% Fibonacci support level.
GBPUSD
(http://s8.postimg.org/kqw3fbib9/gbpusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD continued to trade higher as the price action traded and closed well above last weeks high. The result of the move also broke and closed above the 1.6700 resistance level. Yesterday’s price action has made an initial attempt to break above the top of the triangle.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
More recently GBPUSD has experienced a strong downside correction and this has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle consolidation pattern.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of the previous days range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the triangle formation and move to the 1.6795 level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6700 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s8.postimg.org/czfdgre5x/usdjpydaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY continued to trade lower as the price action traded and closed beneath the 34 period daily moving averages. The move lower did manage to penetrate the 101.70 support level but USDJPY was not able to close the day beneath this level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing the third day of a strong corrective pull back. A breach of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low would change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly with the price action trading at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a close beneath the 101.70 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.
USDCHF
(http://s8.postimg.org/7vo3sk31x/usdchfdaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF continued to experienced a strong downside correction off trend line resistance with the price action ultimatley closing just above the 34 period daily moving
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has now broken to the upside I am now monitoring the possibility that this pattern reaches its upside target of 0.9080.
However daily and weekly bias does continue to be fixed to the downside therefore shorting rallies is still probably the most logical strategy to adopt. I am therefore monitoring the price action as it tests the downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance for signs of a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF retest trend line resistance.
Gold
(http://s8.postimg.org/b18pirlo5/golddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Gold saw a resumption of the uptrend as the price action closed above Friday’s candle range and tested thed 1310 resistance level.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action tests the 1310.00 resistance level and trades above Friday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to trade up to the 1310.00 level and move to the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade down to the 8 period moving averages.
Oil
(http://s8.postimg.org/a6m5wqdth/wtidaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Oil resumed its prior uptrend with the price action closing above last weeks high.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of yesterday’s range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 level.
AUDUSD
(http://s8.postimg.org/5bsgygfhx/audusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD traded higher as the price action bounced off the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bullishly as the price action trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 0.9390 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the 8 period daily moving averages.
Dow30
(http://s8.postimg.org/5fmaepkz9/us30daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Dow30 continued to trade lower as the price action corrected down to the 34 period daily moving averages and 16,245 support level.
Market overview
The move above the 16,514 being the 7th March swing high has changed the daily trend to up. This has put the daily trend in gear with the weekly trend. However we have now seen a strong two day corrective down move that has take the price action back down to the 16,245 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Dow30 has opened quietly as the price action trades within the previous days candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 16,245 support level.
Alternatively if Dow30 fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that Dow30 tests the 34 period daily moving averages and then trades up to the 8 period daily moving averages.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
10th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s29.postimg.org/vdwsb6p3b/eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday EURUSD continued to trade higher as the price action traded into the upper range of the 24th March high.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. The large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the past three days of bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3875 level being the 24th March prior pivot high.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a move back to the averages.
GBPUSD
(http://s29.postimg.org/x6zozia9z/gbpusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD continued to trade higher as the price action the 1.6795 resistance level whoch coincided with the prior high of the 17th February.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. The past two day’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of the previous days range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the triangle formation and move to the 1.6795 level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6700 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s29.postimg.org/5kwxetqx3/usdjpydaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDJPY consolidated at the lows of Tuesday’s big down leg with the price action being unable to pentrate beneath the 101.70 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing the third day of a strong corrective pull back. A breach of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low would change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively with the price action testing the 101.70 support level.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a close beneath the 101.70 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.
USDCHF
(http://s29.postimg.org/4xy0pau13/usdchfdaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCHF continued to experienced a strong downside correction off trend line resistance with the price action trading and closing beneath the 34 period daily moving
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 3 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am therefore monitoring the price action as it tests the downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance for signs of a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the lows of Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially move into the direction of the 13th March low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF retest trend line resistance.
Gold
(http://s29.postimg.org/f9eyvpb47/golddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Gold continued to test the 1310 resistance level.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened strongly as the price action trades above the 1310.00 resistance level.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to hold above the 1310.00 level and move to the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade down to the 8 period moving averages.
AUDUSD
(http://s29.postimg.org/dexj07ypz/audusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 0.9390 resistance level and accelarates towards the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bullishly as the price action trades at the highs of Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 0.9535 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the 0.9390 support level.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
11th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s7.postimg.org/nwye1hejv/eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday EURUSD continued to trade higher as the price action traded and closed above the 1.3875 level being the prior pivot high of the 24th March high.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3966 level being the 13h March prior swing high.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a move back to the averages.
GBPUSD
(http://s7.postimg.org/hbh2nz9bf/gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday GBPUSD continued to trade higher as the price action once again tested the 1.6795 resistance level which coincided with the prior high of the 17th February.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. The past two day’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of the previous days range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6795 level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6700 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s7.postimg.org/d3maf87vv/usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDJPY resumed its downward journey as the price action traded and closed below the 101.70 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing the third day of a strong corrective pull back. A breach of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low would change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened positively with the price action trading above the 101.70 support level.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a close beneath the 101.70 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.
USDCHF
(http://s7.postimg.org/x0wt1xg4r/usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDCHF continued to experienced a strong downside correction off trend line resistance with the price action continuing to trade beneath the 34 period daily moving
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 4 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am therefore considering the break down from trend line and Fibonacci resistance as a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the lows of Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially move into the direction of the 13th March low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF trade back to its averages.
Gold
(http://s7.postimg.org/6h47zsfl7/xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday Gold traded and closed above the 1310 resistance level and traded towards the 34 period moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade down to the 1310.00 support level.
AUDUSD
(http://s7.postimg.org/n8pjijfu3/audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday AUDUSD continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 0.9390 resistance level and accelarates towards the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bearishly as the price action trades beneath Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 0.9535 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the 0.9390 support level.
Oil
(http://s7.postimg.org/412elxxij/oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Oil continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 103.00 resistance level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 103.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil trade up to the 105.00 level.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
14th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/14.04eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday EURUSD did continue to trade higher as the price action remained above the 1.3875 level being the prior pivot high of the 24th March high.
There was an attempt to trade above the significant 1.3900 level however the price action failed to maintain upside momentum above this level
and ultimatley closed the day lower..
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high.
The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend.
Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly but with a gap down from Friday’s close.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential move back to averages.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see a test of the 1.3900 level.
GBPUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/14.04gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday GBPUSD traded lower as the price action rejected the 1.6795 resistance level which coincided with the prior high of the 17th February.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
Last week’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. However Friday’s price action has seen a move back to the converging triangle and the
1.6700 level and 8 period daily moving averages which should offer a level of support. A failure to maintain upside momentum at these levels will put a significant question on the strength of the daily trend.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Friday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a bounce off the 1.6700 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade back into the triangle formation.
USDJPY
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/14.04usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Friday USDJPY continued to trade under the 101.70 and at the lows of Thursday’s range.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and
therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the
head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing a strong corrective pull back.
A breach of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low would change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly with the price action trading within the previous two days candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.
USDCHF
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/14.04usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Friday USDCHF continued to trade lower but with greatley reduced momentum.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it.
That recent 5 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am therefore considering the
break down from trend line and Fibonacci resistance as a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the lows of Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially move into the direction of the 13th March low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF trade back to its averages.
AUDUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/14.04audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday AUDUSD continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 0.9390 resistance level and accelarates towards the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February.
However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area.
The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Fridaty’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 0.9535 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the 0.9390 support level.
GOLD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/14.04xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday Gold experience a quiet day as it continued to test the 34 period moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December.
The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month
double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and
Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
More recently Gold has experienced a strong rally that has push the price action back into the daily averages. This area can possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts.
Notwithstanding as Gold is now approaching the large downward sloping trend line we may see the price action naturally move to this area.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened bullishly as the price action trades above the 34 period daily moving averages and last week’s range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1335.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade down to the 1310.00 support level.
OIL
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/14.04oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Friday Oil continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 103.00 resistance level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December.
The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to
Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened strongly as the price action trades tests Friday’s high candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 105.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 level.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
15th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s1.postimg.org/djvvgavm7/eurusd_daily15_04.png)
Summary
Monday EURUSD traded down from the 1.3900 level and ended the day bouncing moderatley off its averages.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within a tight range at the bottom of Monday’s candle.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential downside test of the averages.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see a test of the 1.3900 level.
GBPUSD
(http://s1.postimg.org/a92x2ogb3/gbpusd_daily15_04.png)
Summary
Monday GBPUSD traded lower as the price action tested the 1.6700 support level and 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. Last week’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. However past two day’s price action has seen a move back to the converging triangle and the 1.6700 level and 8 period daily moving averages which should offer a level of support. A failure to maintain upside momentum at these levels will put a significant question on the strength of the daily trend.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a bounce off the 1.6700 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade further into the triangle formation.
USDJPY
(http://s1.postimg.org/4we2ojsen/usdjpy_daily15_04.png)
Summary
Monday USDJPY for the 6th day continued to trade around the 101.70 and ultimatley closed slightly above this level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing a strong corrective pull back. A breach of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low would change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly with the price action trading at the highs of a 5 day candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.
USDCHF
(http://s1.postimg.org/p6fzhfixb/usdchf_daily15_04.png)
Summary
Monday USDCHF experienced a corrective up day as the price action close above Friday’s candle range.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 5 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am therefore considering the break down from trend line and Fibonacci resistance as a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened bullishly as it trades above Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade back to its averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could possibly see a move into the direction of the 13th March low.
Gold
(http://s1.postimg.org/wigu98brj/xauusd_daily15_04.png)
Summary
Monday Gold traded higher as the price action tested the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
More recently Gold has experienced a strong rally that has push the price action back into the daily averages. This area can possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts. Notwithstanding as Gold is now approaching the large downward sloping trend line we may see the price action naturally be drawn to this area.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened bearishly as the price action tests the lows of Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1335.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade down to the 1310.00 support level.
AUDUSD
(http://s1.postimg.org/eaolm2xzj/audusd_daily15_04.png)
Summary
Monday AUDUSD continued to traded at the 0.9390 resistance level.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bearishly as the price action tests the lows of Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 0.9535 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the 0.9390 support level.
Oil
(http://s1.postimg.org/kltt2hz7z/oilusddaily15_04.png)
Summary
Monday Oil traded marginally higher but closed slightly above its opening pricec and above the 103.00 support level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 105.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 support level.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
16th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/s71z66cs7/eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD traded around its averages in what was a news driven small range but volatile days trading.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened bullishly as the price action tests the high of Tuesday’s candle.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential upside move to the 1.3900 level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a test of trend line support.
GBPUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/dqeprlnav/gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD traded through the 1.6700 level but found support at the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. Last week’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. However past two day’s price action has seen a move back to the converging triangle and the 1.6700 level and 8 period daily moving averages which should offer a level of support. A failure to maintain upside momentum at these levels will put a significant question on the strength of the daily trend.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a bounce off the 1.6700 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 34 period daily moving averages.
USDJPY
(http://s13.postimg.org/qyioyaa7r/usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY for the 6th day continued to trade in a range around the 101.70 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing a strong corrective pull back. A breach of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low would change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened strongly as the price action trades above the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
(http://s13.postimg.org/p1hdfyu5z/usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF continued to correct to the upside as the price action traded back to its averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 5 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am therefore considering the break down from trend line and Fibonacci resistance as a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially bounce lower of the averages and take out the 0.8743 level being the 11th April pivot low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could possibly see a test of the averages and move towards the down trend line.
Gold
(http://s13.postimg.org/fxiyfisl3/xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Gold broke down from its averages as the price action slashed traded higher as the price action tested the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
More recently Gold has experienced a strong rally that has push the price action back into the daily averages. This area can possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts. Notwithstanding as Gold is now approaching the large downward sloping trend line we may see the price action naturally be drawn to this area.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 50% Fibonacci support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold to bounce off Fibonacci support and trade up to the 1335.00 resistance level.
AUDUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/pgsn8zg3b/audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD continued broke below the 0.9390 resistance level and traded down to the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bearishly with the price auctioning already testing the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move beneath the low of Tuesday’s candle range and move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back above the 0.9390 level.
Oil
(http://s13.postimg.org/m4ucfooc7/oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Oil traded tested the the 103.00 support level but failed to sustain a move lower.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 105.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 support level.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
17th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s15.postimg.org/pgayj9owb/17_04eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday EURUSD experienced a fairly volatile session as the price action pivoted around its moving averages.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened bullishly as the price action tests the high of Wednesday’s candle.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential upside move to the 1.3900 level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a test of trend line support.
GBPUSD
(http://s15.postimg.org/hso20yq8b/17_04gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD traded spiked through the 1.6795 level as the price action bounced off its averages.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. Last week’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. Following a corrective move back into the averages the price action appears to have resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened bullishly as the price action trades above the 1.6822 level being the 17th February pivot high.
I am today monitoring the price action for a close above the 1.6822 level being the 17th February pivot high prior to a continuation of the move to the 1.6895 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 1.6700 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s15.postimg.org/5gl5nh2dn/17_04usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDJPY bounced higher as the price action closed above the 5 day range.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
(http://s15.postimg.org/jgn7fm43v/17_04usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCHF continued to correct to the upside as the price action closed above its averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 5 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am therefore considering the break down from trend line and Fibonacci resistance as a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened negativley as it trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially bounce lower of the averages and take out the 0.8743 level being the 11th April pivot low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could possibly see a test of the averages and move towards the down trend line.
Gold
(http://s15.postimg.org/eqx9r0d3f/17_04xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Gold traded for the entire session at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
More recently Gold has experienced a strong rally that has push the price action back into the daily averages. This area can possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts. Notwithstanding as Gold is now approaching the large downward sloping trend line we may see the price action naturally be drawn to this area.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 50% Fibonacci support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold to bounce off Fibonacci support and trade up to the 1335.00 resistance level.
AUDUSD
(http://s15.postimg.org/69xrg38ej/17_04audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD found support at the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bearishly with the price action trading within Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move beneath the low of Wednesday’s candle range and move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back above the 0.9390 level.
Oil
(http://s15.postimg.org/rr90nfznv/17_04oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Oil traded tested and bounce higher off the 103.00 support level and 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened bulllishly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 105.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 support level.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
22nd April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/5yw5o2ap3/22_04eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday EURUSD traded in a fairly small bank holiday range as the price action tested the 1.3789 level being the low of the 15th April.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action tests the lows of Monday’s candle.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3789 level being the low of the 15th April.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see a breach of the averages and a test of last week’s high of 1.3864.
GBPUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/x87j2kbs7/22_04gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday GBPUSD experienced a quiet day’s trading as the price action hovered around the 1.6795 level.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. Last week’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. Following a corrective move back into the averages the price action appears to have resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action tests the 1.6795 level.
I am today monitoring the price action for a close above the 1.6822 level being the 17th February pivot high prior to a continuation of the move to the 1.6895 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 1.6700 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s13.postimg.org/76a3ga0tj/22_04usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDJPY continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
(http://s13.postimg.org/cvqc0l6zr/22_04usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDCHF continued to correct to the upside as the price action closed above its averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 5 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. However we require a breach of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially test the downward sloping trend line.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could possibly see a resumption of the daily down trend.
Gold
(http://s13.postimg.org/7lld9amqv/22_04xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday Gold traded in a fairly volatile sessionas the price action tested Fibonacci support.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
More recently Gold has experienced a strong rally that has push the price action back into the daily averages. This area can possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts. Notwithstanding as Gold is now approaching the large downward sloping trend line we may see the price action naturally be drawn to this area.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 50% Fibonacci support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold to bounce off Fibonacci support and trade up to the 1310.00 resistance level.
AUDUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/439dcwluv/22_04audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday AUDUSD traded in a narrow range under the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bullishly with the price action tests the 8 period daily moving averages.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move beneath the low of Monday’s candle range and move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back above the 0.9390 level.
Oil
(http://s13.postimg.org/czk5guch3/22_04oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Monday Oil traded lower as the price acton tested the 103.00 support level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 105.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 support level.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
23rd April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/5vj567kg1/23_04eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD continued to trade in smallish range with the price action testing but not able to close beneath the 1.3789 level being the low of the 15th April.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has been trading with a volatile range that has seen the price action trade above the averages.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3789 level being the low of the 15th April.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see a breach of the averages and a test of last week’s high of 1.3864.
GBPUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/4cnr18dvl/23_04gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD continued to trade above the the 1.6795 level.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. Last week’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. Following a corrective move back into the averages the price action appears to have resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within yesterday’s candle ranges.
I am today monitoring the price action for a close above the 1.6822 level being the 17th February pivot high prior to a continuation of the move to the 1.6895 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 1.6700 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s30.postimg.org/dzr9ay6v5/23_04usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY traded marginally higher but ultimatley the price action closed just below its opening price.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
(http://s30.postimg.org/fmggw6iwx/23_04usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF traded marginally higher but ultimatley the price action closed just above its opening price.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 5 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. However we require a breach of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially test the downward sloping trend line.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could possibly see a resumption of the daily down trend.
Gold
(http://s30.postimg.org/xk5sdq7gh/23_04xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Gold continued to trade lower and tested the 1277 level being the 1st April low.
Market overview
Yesterdays breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend.
However we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to retest the 1277 level being the 1st April low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold to bounce off Fibonacci support and trade up to the 1310.00 resistance level.
AUDUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/5nqwvyk3l/23_04audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD traded higher as the price action tested the the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bearishly as the price trades beneath last week’s low.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential continuation of the downside momentum and move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back above the 0.9390 level.
Oil
(http://s30.postimg.org/kmdx44ojl/23_04oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Oil traded lower as the price acton tested the 103.00 support level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened bearishly as the price action moves into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil trade back up to the 103.00 level.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
25th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/6ihi7hnj5/25_04eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Thursday EURUSD experienced a mixed day as the price action spiked above and below its averages.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietley as the price action trades within Thursday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of Thursday’s high.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a move back to the range of this week’s low.
GBPUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/vltzdqvs1/25_04gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday GBPUSD continued to trade around the 1.6795 level and 8 period moving averages.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. The recent price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. Following a corrective move back into the averages the price action appears to have resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within Thursday’s candle ranges.
I am today monitoring the price action for a close above the 1.6822 level being the 17th February pivot high prior to a continuation of the move to the 1.6895 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 1.6700 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s30.postimg.org/a0ti3vof5/25_04usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDJPY traded lower as the price action attempted but failed to close beneath Wednesday’s candle range.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly as the price action trades within Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
(http://s30.postimg.org/ueg1lj5nl/25_04usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDCHF traded lower as the price action attempted but failed to close beneath Wednesday’s candle range.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent price activity has seen USDCHF back up to the downward slopping trend line. However it appears that higher prices have been rejected and there has been a resumption of the down trend. A breach of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can move in the direction of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could possible retest of the upward sloping trend line.
Gold
(http://s30.postimg.org/o20wbp2ld/25_04xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday Gold traded strongly higher as the price action rejected the 1270.00 support level and closed back at the 8 period moving averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend.
However yesterday’s strong rejection of the 1270.00 support level could indicate that the recent change of trend to down is a bear trap which could potentially be followed by an appreciation in the value of Gold.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold reject the 8 period daily moving averages and lead to a retest of the 1270.00 support level.
AUDUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/7n6yz4km9/25_04audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday AUDUSD continued to trade lower as the price action moved into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price trades at the lows of Thursday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential continuation of the downside momentum and move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back above the 0.9390 level.
Oil
(http://s30.postimg.org/66vggzhpd/25_04oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Thursday Oil experienced a quiet day as the price action hovered above the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
However the recent price action has seen a move back down to the 34 period daily moving averages which could be viewed as a possible value area to add longs.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil trade back up to the 103.00 level.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
30th April 2014
EURUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/30.04eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD broke down from the previous days high as the price action traded down to its averages.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of this week high.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a move back to the averages.
GBPUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/30.04gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD traded within Monday’s candle range.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. The recent price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside with GBPUSD now trading at the 8 period moving averages.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within Tuesday’s candle ranges.
I am today monitoring the price action for a close above the 1.6822 level being the 17th February pivot high prior to a continuation of the move to the 1.6895 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 1.6700 support level.
USDJPY
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/30.04usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY traded higher as the price action closed above the averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened bearishly as the price action trades beneath the low of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/30.04usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF traded higher as the price action tested the downward sloping trend line.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent price activity has seen USDCHF back up to the downward slopping trend line. However it appears that higher prices have been rejected and there has been a resumption of the down trend. A breach of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can test the upward sloping trend line.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF possibly move in the direction of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
AUDUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/30.04audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD tested the 34 period daily moving averages. However by the end of business AUDUSD have paired its losses and closed higher.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened positively as the price trades at the above Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 8 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back to the 34 period daily moving averages.
GOLD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/30.04xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Gold spiked beneath the 8 period daily moving averages however ultimatley closed at its open.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend.
However the recent strong rejection of the 1270.00 support level could indicate that the recent change of trend to down is a bear trap which could potentially be followed by an appreciation in the value of Gold.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold reject the 8 period daily moving averages and lead to a retest of the 1270.00 support level.
OIL
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/30.04oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Oil spiked higher and tested the 8 period moving averages. However the price action was not able to sustain higher and ultimatley closed the day lower.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a move back down to the 34 period daily moving averages which could be viewed as a possible value area to add longs.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened negatively as the price action trades beneath Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 100 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil trade back up to the averages.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
5th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s12.postimg.org/jc8o43xx9/05_05eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday EURUSD spent most of the London session trading in a tight range as the market awaited the Non Farm Payroll data. The better than expected numbers intially had the impact of EURUSD breaking lower as the price action penetrate under its expected lower range boundary and testedm the 34 period daily moving averages. However at these level buyers came into the market as EURUSD paired all the losses for the day and eventually closed marginally higher.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend.
With Friday’s price action closed slightly above trend line resistance I will be monitoring EURUSD for further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietely as the price action trades at the highss of Thurday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.3900 resistance level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a move back to the prior broken down trend line.
GBPUSD
(http://s12.postimg.org/cx9n7fr7h/05_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday GBPUSD initially spiked lowed as the price action penetrated the 8 period daily moving averages and tested the 1.6795 support level. However by the closed of business GBPUSD had paired the majority of its lossess and closed slightly down on the day.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages appear to be offering strong support to the current up move.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within Friday’s candle ranges.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of last week’s candle range high.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 1.6795 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s12.postimg.org/47ck6l9q5/05_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Friday USDJPY spiked higher off the Non Farm Payroll data. However the 103.00 level offered good resistance as the price action was undable to sustain a move above this level. This ultimatley led to a collapse as sellers came into the market. By the close of business USDJPY closed down on the day and under its averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend. However a sustain move beneath the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low would put a big question mark against the health of this uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades under last week’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.70 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 13.00 resistance level.
USDCHF
(http://s12.postimg.org/87jpiu071/05_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF spiked higher off the Non Farm Payroll data as the price action tested the downward sloping trendline. However this trendline once again proved to be good resistance as USDCHF was unable to maintain a move above this level. This ultimatley led to a collapse as sellers came into the market. By the close of business USDCHF closed down on the day and under its averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent price activity has seen USDCHF back up to the downward slopping trend line. However it appears that higher prices have been rejected and there has been a resumption of the down trend. A breach of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened negatively as it trades under Friday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF possibly move in the direction of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF can test the upward sloping trend line.
Gold
(http://s12.postimg.org/dqm901x8d/05_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday Gold experience a strong up day as the price action rejected the 1270.00 support level. The price action continued to trade higher and was only held at the 1310.00 resistance level and the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend.
A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened positively as the price action trades above the highs of Friday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back to the 8 period daily moving averages.
AUDUSD
(http://s12.postimg.org/fc1irv7gd/05_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday AUDUSD spiked lower off the Non Farm Payroll data as the price action tested the upward sloping trendline. However this trendline proved to be good resistance as AUDUSD was unable to maintain a move below this level. This ultimatley led to a rally as buyers came into the market. By the close of business AUDUSD closed marginally up on the day.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area. I am now monitoring the price action as it trades at trend line support for an indication of the next phase of the market action.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within Friday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential bounce off the upward sloping trend line.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the upward sloping trend line.
Oil
(http://s12.postimg.org/7xc6zhlkt/05_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Friday Oil traded higher as the price action tested the 100.00 level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong downward correction towards the 98.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened positively as the price action trades within Friday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 100.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 98.00 price levels.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
6th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/atnrv1gr1/06_05eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Monday EURUSD in a tight range during the UK bank holiday.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. I will be monitoring EURUSD for further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietely as the price action trades at the within Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.3900 resistance level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a move back to the prior broken down trend line.
GBPUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/luix028zx/06_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday GBPUSD in a tight range during the UK bank holiday.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages appear to be offering strong support to the current up move.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened positively as the price trades above Monday’s candle ranges.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of last week’s candle range high.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 1.6795 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s28.postimg.org/3y3jbxma5/06_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDJPY had an indifferent trading day with the price action closing marginally beneath its open.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend. However a sustain move beneath the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low would put a big question mark against the health of this uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades within yesterday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.70 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 13.00 resistance level.
USDCHF
(http://s28.postimg.org/h4szbghzh/06_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF gapped down but by the close of business ended the days trading closing higher.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent price activity has seen USDCHF back up to the downward slopping trend line. However it appears that higher prices have been rejected and there has been a resumption of the down trend. A breach of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within yesterday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF possibly move in the direction of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF can test the upward sloping trend line.
Gold
(http://s28.postimg.org/txh3bdtl9/06_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday Gold traded higher as the price action tested the 1310.00 resistance level.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend.
A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back to the daily moving averages.
AUDUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/lj1gnasjx/06_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday AUDUSD traded within a tight range around the averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area. I am now monitoring the price action as it trades at trend line support for an indication of the next phase of the market action.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential bounce off the upward sloping trend line.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the upward sloping trend line.
Oil
(http://s28.postimg.org/ukg00wqh9/06_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Monday Oil traded lower as the price action failed to closed above the 100.00 level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong downward correction towards the 98.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened positively as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 100.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 98.00 price levels.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
7th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/r64m0b4f1/07_05eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD broke higher as the price action traded and closed above the 1.3905 level being the 11th April high.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. I will be monitoring EURUSD for further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietely as the price action trades at the within Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.3966 level being the 13th March high.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a move back to the 8 period daily moving averages.
GBPUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/kuzejw36l/07_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD broke higher from its averages as the price action tested the 1.6985 resistance level.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages appear to be offering strong support to the current up move.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle ranges.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6985 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade back down to the averages.
USDJPY
(http://s4.postimg.org/72kzo9cf1/07_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY experienced a strong down day as the price acion tested the 101.70 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend. However a sustain move beneath the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low would put a big question mark against the health of this uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades beneath yesterday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade back to the averages.
USDCHF
(http://s4.postimg.org/6si2inn6l/07_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF continued to trade lower as the price action tested and closed under the 0.8743 being the swing low of the 11th April.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent price activity has seen USDCHF back up to the downward slopping trend line. However it appears that higher prices have been rejected and there has been a resumption of the down trend. The breach and close under the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April has confirmed that the down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within yesterday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can test the 0.8698 level being the 2014 low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF trade back to the 8 period daily moving averages.
Gold
(http://s4.postimg.org/vobi659ul/07_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Gold traded at the highs of Monday’s candle range as the price action tested the 1310 resistance level.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back to the daily moving averages.
USDCAD
(http://s4.postimg.org/o0k0a3lst/07_05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCAD broke lower off the daily moving averages and trend line resistance.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. A breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietly as the price trades at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD trades back up to the 1.0940 resistance level.
Oil
(http://s4.postimg.org/igc4d7cbh/07_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Oil traded around the 100 level and with Monday’s candle range.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong downward correction towards the 98.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened positively as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 100.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 98.00 price levels.
AUDUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/o72aqxkbh/07_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD broke higher off the daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area. I am now monitoring the price action as it trades at trend line support for an indication of the next phase of the market action.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the of the 0.9390 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the daily moving averages.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
8th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/63x0qwhot/08_05eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday EURUSD traded within a tight 30 pip range for most of the day as the market awaited the FOMC statement and hearing.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. I will be monitoring EURUSD for further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietely as the price action trades at the within Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.3966 level being the 13th March high.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a move back to the 8 period daily moving averages.
GBPUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/4raqb9uvh/08_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD had a quiet day as the price action consolidated at the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages appear to be offering strong support to the current up move.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6985 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade back down to the averages.
USDJPY
(http://s4.postimg.org/877fykhhp/08_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDJPY initially tested the weekly low however buyers came into the market and by the close of business closed the day higher.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend. However a sustain move beneath the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low would put a big question mark against the health of this uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades within yesterday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade back to the averages.
USDCHF
(http://s4.postimg.org/sbweqalxp/08_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCHF have a quiet as the price action traded within Tuesday’s candle range.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent price activity has seen USDCHF back up to the downward slopping trend line. However it appears that higher prices have been rejected and there has been a resumption of the down trend. The breach and close under the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April has confirmed that the down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within yesterday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can test the 0.8698 level being the 2014 low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF trade back to the 8 period daily moving averages.
Gold
(http://s4.postimg.org/l10we65jh/08_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Gold broke down from the 1310 resistance level as the price action traded down to Fibonacci support.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1270 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back to the daily moving averages.
USDCAD
(http://s4.postimg.org/6lnkt0hvx/08_05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCAD had a quiet day as the price action trade within Tuesday’s candle range.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. A breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietly as the price trades withins Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD trades back up to the 1.0940 resistance level.
AUDUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/denxpa8p9/08_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD had a quiet day as the price action trade within Tuesday’s candle range.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened positively as the price trades at the price action tests the 0.9390 resistance level.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the of the 0.9390 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the daily moving averages.
Oil
(http://s4.postimg.org/jxgs27kwd/08_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Oil traded broke above the 100 level and tested the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong downward correction and bounce off the 98.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 98.00 price levels.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
9th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/h3dhdx8nx/09_05eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday EURUSD experienced some strange price action. Initially EURUSD broke higher and traded above the 1.3966 level being the 2014 high. However EURUSD immediatley reversed its directrion and collapsed by over 150 pips. This move down was only halted when EURUSD hit the top of the prior broken triangle formation.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. Yesterday’s collapse has brought EURUSD back into the averages and support. This can possibly be viewed as a value area to add longs.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietely as the price action trades at the lows Thursday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 34 period daily moving averages and trend line support.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see a bounce off support and move back to the 8 period daily moving averages.
GBPUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/xxe35rn6l/09_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday GBPUSD had a quiet day as the price action consolidated at the highs of this weeks range.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages appear to be offering strong support to the current up move.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price trades at the 8 period daily moving averages.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6985 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade back down to the 1.6795 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s28.postimg.org/jn9480w7x/09_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDJPY traded within the prior two days candle ranges.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend. However a sustain move beneath the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low would put a big question mark against the health of this uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades within yesterday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back to the averages.
USDCHF
(http://s28.postimg.org/s0et2ovfh/09_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDCHF broke down and at one point tested the 2014 low. However the direction immediatley reversed its direction. USDCHF rallied strongly. By the close of business USDCHF had end the day above the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent price activity has seen USDCHF back up to the downward slopping trend line. However it appears that higher prices have been rejected and there has been a resumption of the down trend. The breach and close under the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April has confirmed that the down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades above yesterday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially bounce lower off trend line resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF test both the 34 period daily moving averages trend line resistance.
Gold
(http://s28.postimg.org/52s1d7199/09_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday Gold had a quiet day as the price action traded at lows of Wednesday’s range.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades within Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1270 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back to the daily moving averages.
USDCAD
(http://s28.postimg.org/alpzgo8wt/09_05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDCAD experienced a strong down day as the price action breached the 9th April low and moved towards the 1.0790 support level.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietly as the price trades at the lows of Thursday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.0790 support level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD trades back up to 8 periods daily moving averages.
AUDUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/dbzbdv5lp/09_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday AUDUSD had a strong up day as the price action tested the 0.9390 resistance level.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price trades at the price action trades at the highs of Thursday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the of the 0.9390 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the daily moving averages.
Oil
(http://s28.postimg.org/l79usof8d/09_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Thursday Oil traded above the 100 level and the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong downward correction and bounce off the 98.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 98.00 price levels.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
13th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s22.postimg.org/nnzfjantd/13_05eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday EURUSD traded in a small range for the entire days business.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly price action continues trend in an upward direction. EURUSD has now moved into an area of Fibonacci support. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where longs could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietely as the price action trades at the lows Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential bounce back up to the 34 period daily moving averages and trend line resistance.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a test of Friday’s low and the 1.3672 level being the 4th April swing low.
GBPUSD
(http://s22.postimg.org/ili3oiej5/13_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday GBPUSD traded at tge lows of Friday’s candle range.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages appear to be offering strong support to the current up move.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6795 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action bounce higher and test the 8 period daily moving averages.
USDJPY
(http://s22.postimg.org/k5nfmwmxd/13_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDJPY traded higher as the price action closed above prior three days candle ranges.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend. However a sustained move beneath the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low would put a big question mark against the health of this uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened positively as the price action trades tests the 34 period daily moving averages.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade back to the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low.
USDCHF
(http://s22.postimg.org/69f7b0qoh/13_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDCHF continued to trade higher as the price action closed above Friday’s high.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Monday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and test Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF trade back down to the averages.
Gold
(http://s22.postimg.org/bsmc5zd3l/13_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday Gold experienced a volatile days trading as the price action traded both above and below its averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as it trades within Monday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1270 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1310.00 resistance level.
USDCAD
(http://s22.postimg.org/vodq7s4r5/13_05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDCAD experienced a very quiet days trading following Friday’s impressive rally.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietly as the price trades within Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of trend line resistance.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that USDCAD trades back down to the Friday’s lows.
AUDUSD
(http://s22.postimg.org/i51hftg5t/13_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday AUDUSD had a quiet day as the price action tested the 0.9390 resistance level.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened negatively as the price trades at the price action trades below Monday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the of the 0.9390 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the daily moving averages.
Oil
(http://s22.postimg.org/u48e9dwcx/13_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Monday Oil traded continued to trade within the 8 and 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong downward correction and bounce off the 98.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 price levels.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
14th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/n4zcjk0fr/14_05eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD broke lower as it traded towards the 1.3672 level being the 4th April swing low.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly price action continues trend in an upward direction. EURUSD has now traded deep into the Fibonacci support area.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietely as the price action trades at the lows Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3672 level being the 4th April swing low.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see a move back to yesterday’s high.
GBPUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/5az94irzr/14_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD closed lower as the price action moved into the direction of the 1.6795 support level.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages had been offering good support to this up move. However the recent price action has seen GBPUSD trade and close under this average for the past 3 periods.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6795 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action bounce higher and test the 8 period daily moving averages.
USDJPY
(http://s13.postimg.org/itaqujtiv/14_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY traded higher as the price action tested the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend. However a sustained move beneath the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low would put a big question mark against the health of this uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade back to the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low.
USDCHF
(http://s13.postimg.org/pnl1k8m5z/14_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF continued to trade higher as the price action moved towards the 0.8930 resistance level.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Tuesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and test Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF trade back down to the averages.
Gold
(http://s13.postimg.org/4bdjmk27r/14_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Gold traded within Tuesday’s candle range for the entire day’s business.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as it trades within Tuesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1270 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1310.00 resistance level.
USDCAD
(http://s13.postimg.org/m7obwxzjr/14_05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCAD traded higher as the price action tested the downward sloping trend line.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
More recently USDCAD has corrected back to the 8 period daily moving averages which could possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietly as the price trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of trend line resistance.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that USDCAD trades back down to the Friday’s lows.
AUDUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/myh22q1x3/14_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD had a quiet day as the price action tested the 0.9390 resistance level.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
More recently AUDUSD has bounced off trend line and moving average support and is once again testing the 0.9390 resistance level.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened positively as the price trades at the price action trades above Tuesday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the of the 0.9390 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the daily moving averages.
Oil
(http://s13.postimg.org/x9tevdtmf/14_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Oil broke higher as the price action closed above the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 price levels.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
15th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s12.postimg.org/4u7dp5d71/15_05eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday EURUSD experienced a quiet day as the price action traded at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly price action continues trend in an upward direction. EURUSD has now traded deep into the Fibonacci support area.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietely as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3672 level being the 4th April swing low.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see a move back to Tuesday’s high.
GBPUSD
(http://s12.postimg.org/hqtwj2jnx/15_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD traded lower as the price action breached the 1.6795 support level and tested moving average and trend line support.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages had been offering good support to this up move. However the recent price action has seen GBPUSD trade and close under this average for the past 4 periods.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6700 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action bounce higher and test the 1.6795 resistance level.
USDJPY
(http://s12.postimg.org/axoy923gt/15_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDJPY traded lower as the price action tested the 101.70 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend. However a sustained move beneath the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low would put a big question mark against the health of this uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade back to the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low.
USDCHF
(http://s12.postimg.org/6v2inpyq5/15_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCHF experienced a quiet day as the price action failed to test the 0.8930 resistance level.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and test Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF trade back down to the averages.
Gold
(http://s12.postimg.org/gr3lnd4i5/15_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Gold broke higher as the price action tested the 1310.00 resistance level.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as it trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1270.00 support level.
USDCAD
(http://s12.postimg.org/osn8rixvx/15_05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCAD tested but failed to breach the downward sloping trend line.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
More recently USDCAD has corrected back to the 8 period daily moving averages which could possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened negatively as the price action has broken down from the downward sloping trend line.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0790 support level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retests the downward sloping trend line.
AUDUSD
(http://s12.postimg.org/t4gfu9u6l/15_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD made a strong effort to break above the 0.9390 resistance level. However by the close of business the price action failed to close above this level.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
More recently AUDUSD has bounced off trend line and moving average support and is once again testing the 0.9390 resistance level.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened positively as the price trades at the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the of the 0.9390 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the daily moving averages.
Oil
(http://s12.postimg.org/nb1sfyt59/15_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Oil traded higher but was not able to test the 103.00 resistance level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 price levels.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
16th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/16.05eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday EURUSD spiked lower as it traded under the 1.3672 level being the 4th April swing low. However EURUSD was not able to sustain the move lower. Buyers did come into the market at support which had the result of EURUSD pairing most of its losses.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly price action continues trend in an upward direction. EURUSD has now traded deep into the Fibonacci support area. Yesterday’s price action and more specifically the reject of lower prices at support opens up the possibility for a move back up to the averages.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietely as the price action trades within Thursday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential move back up to the averages.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a retest of the 1.3672 level being the 4th April swing low.
GBPUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/16.05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday GBPUSD traded lower as the price action continued to test moving average and trend line support.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages had been offering good support to this up move. However the recent price action has seen GBPUSD break under this average and now test trend line support.
From a weekly perspective the price action is now testing the 8 period weekly moving averages. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Thursday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6700 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action bounce higher and test the 1.6795 resistance level.
USDJPY
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/16.05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDJPY traded lower as the price action closed under the 101.70 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend. However a sustained move beneath the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low would put a big question mark against the health of this uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly as the price action trades within Thursday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade back to the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low.
USDCHF
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/16.05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDCHF spiked higher as the price action breached the 0.8930 resistance level and moved into the Fibonacci resistance level. However the move higher was viewed as a shorting opportunity by bears and this led to a substantial sell off.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Thursday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and test Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF trade back down to the averages.
AUDUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/16.05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday AUDUSD traded lower as the price action tested the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
More recently AUDUSD has bounced off trend line and moving average support and is once again testing the 0.9390 resistance level.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within Thursday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the of the 0.9390 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the daily moving averages.
GOLD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/16.05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday Gold traded lower as the price action traded back down to the averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as it trades within Thursday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1270.00 support level.
OIL
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/16.05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Thursday Oil traded traded lower as the price action tested the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 price levels.
USDCAD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/16.05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday USDCAD traded lower as the price action traded down from the averages.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
More recently USDCAD has corrected back to the 8 period daily moving averages which could possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietley as the price action trades within Thursday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0790 support level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retests the downward sloping trend line.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
16th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s27.postimg.org/qdahdzd03/19_05eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday EURUSD experienced a quiet day as the price action traded within Thursday’s range.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly price action continues trend in an upward direction. EURUSD has now traded deep into the Fibonacci support area. The recent reject of lower prices at support opens up the possibility for a move back up to the averages.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened positivley as the price action tests the highs of Friday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential move back up to the averages.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a retest of Friday’s low.
GBPUSD
(http://s27.postimg.org/ok7kpnrtf/19_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday GBPUSD traded lower as the price action tested the 8 period moving averages and closed above trend line support.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages had been offering good support to this up move. However the recent price action has seen GBPUSD break under this average and now test trend line support.
From a weekly perspective the price action is now testing the 8 period weekly moving averages. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Friday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 8 period moving averages.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action back to the the 1.6795 resistance level.
USDJPY
(http://s27.postimg.org/qh4au8ihf/19_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Friday USDJPY experienced a quiet day as the price action traded within Thursday’s range.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend. However a sustained move beneath the 101.32 level being the 11th April swing low would put a big question mark against the health of this uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action test the lows of Friday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back to the 101.70 level.
USDCHF
(http://s27.postimg.org/9a7pigwb7/19_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Friday USDCHF experienced a quiet day as the price action traded within Thursday’s range.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Friday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and retest Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF trade back down to the averages.
Gold
(http://s27.postimg.org/58qmct40j/19_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday Gold experienced a quiet day as the price action traded around the averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as it trades within Friday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1270.00 support level.
USDCAD
(http://s27.postimg.org/bnpn9haqb/19_05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Friday USDCAD traded lower as the price action traded down from the averages.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
More recently USDCAD has corrected back to the 8 period daily moving averages which could possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietley as the price action trades within Friday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0790 support level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retests the downward sloping trend line.
AUDUSD
(http://s27.postimg.org/sqsf4zrf7/19_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday AUDUSD experienced a quiet day as the price action traded within Thursday’s range.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
More recently AUDUSD has bounced off trend line and moving average support and is once again testing the 0.9390 resistance level.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within Friday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the of the 0.9390 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the daily moving averages.
Oil
(http://s27.postimg.org/cm60bro2b/19_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Friday Oil traded traded higher as the price action bounced off the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened positively as the price action trades above Friday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 price levels.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
20th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s18.postimg.org/pza2yzqux/20_05eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday EURUSD traded most of the day marginally higher as the price action tested the highs of the previous 3 day range.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly price action continues trend in an upward direction. The recent rejection of lower prices at the 1.3672 support level being the swing low of the 4th April and bounce off the 34 period weekly moving averages has opened up the possibility for a move back up to the averages.
However that the price action is now trading at the 8 period daily moving averages draws our attention is drawn to a potential negative rotation at an area of resistance.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietley as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 8 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a retest of 1.3764 level being the swing low.
GBPUSD
(http://s18.postimg.org/3r63lux89/20_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday GBPUSD experienced a quiet day with the price action confined within the averages.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. The 8 period daily moving averages had been offering good support to this up move. However the recent price action has seen GBPUSD break under this average and now test trend line support.
From a weekly perspective the price action is now testing the 8 period weekly moving averages. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 8 period moving averages.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action back to the 1.6795 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s18.postimg.org/a2bb29ygp/20_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDJPY spiked lower as the price action tested the 101.00 level. However by the close of business USJPY had paired most of its losses.
Market overview
Yesterday’s breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. I am now monitoring the price action for signs of a continuation under the 101.32. A failure to sustain a move beneath this level would put forward the possibility that the move beneath the 101.32 level was a fake break down which could lead to further a resumption of the prior uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back to the 101.70 level.
USDCHF
(http://s18.postimg.org/mnbs5oz3t/20_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDCHF experienced a quiet day as the price action traded within Thursday’s range.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Monday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and retest Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF trade back down to the averages.
Gold
(http://s18.postimg.org/ilup016t5/20_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday Gold experienced a quiet day as the price action traded around the averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as it trades within Monday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1270.00 support level.
USDCAD
(http://s18.postimg.org/etb6karax/20_05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDCAD traded higher as the price action traded back up to the averages.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
More recently USDCAD has corrected back to the 8 period daily moving averages which could possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened positivley as the price action trades above Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0790 support level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retests the downward sloping trend line.
AUDUSD
(http://s18.postimg.org/mkrwiuvg9/20_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday AUDUSD traded lower as the price action tested the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
Furthermore this morning we have witnessed a break beneath the averages and trend line support. The opens up a possibility of a lower high forming which adds further weight to the short side.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened negatively as the price trades under the averages and trend line support.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential sustained move under trend line support.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back up to the broken trend line.
Oil
(http://s18.postimg.org/elnjnsgc9/20_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Monday Oil traded traded higher as the price action moved into the direction of the 103 resistance level. However by the closed of business Oil had lost the majority of its gains.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened positively as the price action within Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 price levels.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
21st May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s29.postimg.org/tk701gmwn/21_05eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD experienced a quiet days trade as the price action traded marginally lower. However by the end of business EURUSD had paired the majority of its losses.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly price action continues trend in an upward direction. The recent rejection of lower prices at the 1.3672 support level being the swing low of the 4th April and bounce off the 34 period weekly moving averages has opened up the possibility for a move back up to the daily averages.
However that the price action is now trading at the 8 period daily moving averages draws our attention is drawn to a potential negative rotation at an area of resistance.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietley as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 8 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a retest of 1.3764 level being the swing low.
GBPUSD
(http://s29.postimg.org/dxfqo394n/21_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD traded marginally higher as the price action bounced off the averages and trend line support.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. More recently GBPUSD has managed to break above its daily moving averages which can be seen positively for GBPUSD.
From a weekly perspective the price action is now testing the 8 period weekly moving averages. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a sustained move above the 8 period moving averages.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action back to the 1.6795 support level.
USDJPY
(http://s29.postimg.org/nqwy0wb93/21_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY resumed its bearish momentum as the price action moved away from the 101.70 resistance level and 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. I am now monitoring the price action for signs of a continuation under the 101.32. A failure to sustain a move beneath this level would put forward the possibility that the move beneath the 101.32 level was a fake break down which could lead to further a resumption of the prior uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action tests within Tuesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back to the 101.70 level.
USDCHF
(http://s29.postimg.org/slqmz69kn/21_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF experienced a quiet day as the price action tested the 0.8930 resistance level.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Tuesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and retest Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the 8 period daily moving averages.
Gold
(http://s29.postimg.org/xlo374f7b/21_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Gold experienced a quiet day as the price action traded around the averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as it trades within Tuesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1270.00 support level.
USDCAD
(http://s29.postimg.org/nykkxem7r/21_05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCAD traded higher as the price action tested the downward sloping trend line.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
More recently USDCAD has corrected back to the 8 period daily moving averages and trend line resistance which could possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietley as the price action trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0790 support level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD trades up to the 1.0940 resistance level.
AUDUSD
(http://s29.postimg.org/4odkdz08n/21_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD continued to trade lower as the price action broke trend line support and traded towards the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
Yesterday’s downside break opens up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened negatively as the price trades under Tuesday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential a test of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back up to the broken trend line.
Oil
(http://s29.postimg.org/4ffzo1ng7/21_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Oil found support at its averages and broke higher as the price action tested the 103.00 resistance level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action at the highs Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to its averages.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
28th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/28.05eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD traded lower in what was a good range day.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. The past three days price action has seen a sustained move under this last support level.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3550 support level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action trade back up to the 1.3670 level.
GBPUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/28.05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD traded marginally lower as the price action tested the 1.6795 support level.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. More recently GBPUSD has managed to break above its daily moving averages which can be seen positively for GBPUSD.
From a weekly perspective the price action is now testing the 8 period weekly moving averages. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a sustained move above the 8 period moving averages.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6795 support level.
USDJPY
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/28.05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY traded within the 8 and 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. I am now monitoring the price action for signs of a continuation under the 101.32. A failure to sustain a move beneath this level would put forward the possibility that the breach of the 101.32 level was a fake break down which could lead to further a resumption of the prior uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly as the price action tests within Tuesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.70 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY test the 34 period daily moving averages.
USDCHF
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/28.05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF experienced a strong up day as the price action tested the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Tuesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and retest Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the 8 period daily moving averages.
AUDUSD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/28.05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD continued to trade higher as the price action tested the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
The downside break opens up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price trades under Tuesday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 34 period daily moving averages.
GOLD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/28.05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Thursday Gold traded lower as the price action traded back down to the averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. A breach of the 1270.00 support level would confirm the daily down trend.
However the recent price action has seen a rejection of the 1270 support level and a move above the 1306 level being the swing high of the 28th April.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as it trades within Thursday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1310.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1270.00 support level.
OIL
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/28.05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Oil continues to trade above the 8 period daily moving averages as the price action moves into the direction of the prior 2014 highs.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level. I am monitoring the price action for a move up to the 105.00 level being the April high.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action at the highs Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 105.00 level being the April high.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to its averages.
USDCAD
(http://www.acfx.com/content/images/28.05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCAD traded lower as the price action traded back down to the prior broken downward sloping trend line.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
More recently USDCAD has corrected back to and breach both the 8 period daily moving averages and trend line resistance. The price action rejected its attempt to breach the 34 period daily moving averages. A failure to sustain a move above this average opens up the possibility of a resumption of the daily down trend.
A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietley as the price action trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0790 support level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the broken 34 period daily moving averages.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
29th May 2014
EURUSD
(http://s21.postimg.org/4bt7kqmd3/29_05eurusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday EURUSD traded lower as the price action tested the 78.6% Fibonacci support level.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.
More recently we have seen an extended move lower that has traded beneath multiple prior pivot levels. The next major price target being 1.3476 being the 3rd February swing low.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3476 support level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action trade back up to the 1.3670 level.
GBPUSD
(http://s21.postimg.org/u3ej9xtbr/29_05gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD traded lower as the price action tested the 1.6700 support level.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. Yesterday’s move lower traded aggressively as the price action traded under the 1.6731 level being the minor pivot low of the 15th May. This move lower does put a question mark on the health of the daily up trend.
From a weekly perspective the price action is now trading under the 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which comes in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Wednesday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6700 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action test the 1.6795 level.
USDJPY
(http://s21.postimg.org/vnogm2r3r/29_05usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDJPY tested the 101.70 support level as the price action traded within the 8 and 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. I am now monitoring the price action for signs of a continuation under the 101.32. A failure to sustain a move beneath this level would put forward the possibility that the breach of the 101.32 level was a fake break down which could lead to further a resumption of the prior uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly as the price action tests within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.70 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY test the 34 period daily moving averages.
USDCHF
(http://s21.postimg.org/3ouav7ph3/29_05usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCHF traded higher as the price action tested the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and retest Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the 8 period daily moving averages.
Gold
(http://s17.postimg.org/favckkz1b/29_05xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Gold continued to trade lower as the price action broke under the 61.8% Fibonacci support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open negatively as the price action trades below Wednesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1250.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the averages.
USDCAD
(http://s21.postimg.org/7g3vhj35j/29_05usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCAD experience a positive day as the price action traded above the prior broken downward sloping trend line and tested the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
More recently USDCAD has corrected back to and breach both the 8 period daily moving averages and trend line resistance. The price action rejected its attempt to breach the 34 period daily moving averages. A failure to sustain a move above this average opens up the possibility of a resumption of the daily down trend.
A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietley as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0790 support level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the broken 34 period daily moving averages.
AUDUSD
(http://s21.postimg.org/k4tkngjw7/29_05audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD closed lower as the price action rejected a move into the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
The downside break opens up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened strongly as the price trades above Wednesday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.
Oil
(http://s21.postimg.org/3l0heyjzr/29_05oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Oil broke lower as the price action traded under the 8 period daily moving averages. The move lower was only halted when the price action tested the 103.00 support level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level. I am monitoring the price action for a move up to the 105.00 level being the April high.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action at the lows Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil trade up to the 105.00 level being the April high.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
2nd June 2014
EURUSD
(http://s12.postimg.org/8n2aad5il/02_06eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday EURUSD reversed its downward momentum as the price action traded above the highs of the previous two days ranges. The up move was only halted at the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.
More recently we have seen an extended move lower that has traded beneath multiple prior pivot levels. The next major price target being 1.3476 being the 3rd February swing low.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Friday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3550 support level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action trade back up to the 1.3670 level.
GBPUSD
(http://s12.postimg.org/adlbbun1p/02_06gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday GBPUSD traded higher as the price action bounced off the 1.6700 support level.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. However the recent move lower has seen the price action trade under the 1.6731 level being the minor pivot low of the 15th May. This move lower does put a question mark on the health of the daily up trend.
From a weekly perspective the price action is now trading under the 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which come in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Friday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6795 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6700 level.
USDJPY
(http://s12.postimg.org/8fenduujx/02_06usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Friday USDJPY experience a quiet day as the price action initially tested but closed above the 101.70 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. I am now monitoring the price action for signs of a continuation under the 101.32. A failure to sustain a move beneath this level would put forward the possibility that the breach of the 101.32 level was a fake break down which could lead to further a resumption of the prior uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened bullishly as the price action trades above Friday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY test the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
(http://s12.postimg.org/7akl8h831/02_06usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Friday USDCHF traded traded lower as the price action tested and closed under the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving into the direction of Fibonacci resistance. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Friday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher and retest Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Gold
(http://s12.postimg.org/p1w7mxnhp/02_06xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday Gold continued to trade lower as the price action tested the 1250 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open bearishly as the price action trades within Friday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to close under the 1250.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the averages.
USDCAD
(http://s12.postimg.org/4kb9babe5/02_06usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Friday USDCAD experienced a quiet day with the price action being squeezed between the downward sloping trend line and the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a weekly uptrend however the daily trend has recently changed to negative. The breach of the 1.0857 level being the daily swing low of the 9th April will open up the possibility for a further move lower down to the 1.0790 support level.
More recently USDCAD has corrected back to and breach both the 8 period daily moving averages and trend line resistance. The price action rejected its attempt to breach the 34 period daily moving averages. A failure to sustain a move above this average opens up the possibility of a resumption of the daily down trend.
A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietley as the price action trades within Friday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0790 support level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the broken 34 period daily moving averages.
AUDUSD
(http://s12.postimg.org/5nvdn8w19/02_06audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Friday AUDUSD attempted to test the 34 period daily moving averages. However by the close of business the price action close near its open.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
The downside break opened up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.
However the recent prior price action has had the effect of creating a bullish consolidation pattern at the highs of this daily up trend.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bearishly as the price trades under Friday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential a test of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trade back up to the last weeks highs.
Oil
(http://s12.postimg.org/7ytfrf6st/02_06oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Friday Oil traded lower with the price action closing under both the 103.00 support level and the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen a strong bounce off the 98.00 and 100.00 support level. I am monitoring the price action for a move up to the 105.00 level being the April high.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened bullishly as the price action bounces of the 103.00 support level.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 8 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 level being the April high.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
5th June 2014
EURUSD
(http://s8.postimg.org/w8cl5js4l/05_06eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday EURUSD traded lower as the price action rejected the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.
More recently we have seen an extended move lower that has traded beneath multiple prior pivot levels. The next major price target being 1.3476 being the 3rd February swing low.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3550 support level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action trade back up to the 1.3670 level.
GBPUSD
(http://s8.postimg.org/uzopjx06d/05_06gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD again tested the 8 period daily moving averages however the price action was not able to sustain the move higher and ny the close of business finished the day marginally higher.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. However the recent move lower has seen the price action trade under the 1.6731 level being the minor pivot low of the 15th May. This move lower does put a question mark on the health of the daily up trend.
From a weekly perspective the price action is now trading under the 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which come in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6700 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action test the 1.6795 level.
USDJPY
(http://s8.postimg.org/jsfvbsysl/05_06usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDJPY continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 102.14 level being the minor swing high of the 27th May.
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. I am now monitoring the price action for signs of a continuation under the 101.32. A failure to sustain a move beneath this level would put forward the possibility that the breach of the 101.32 level was a fake break down which could lead to further a resumption of the prior uptrend.
More recently yesterday’s price action has traded above the 102.14 level being the minor swing high of the 27th May. This adds further impetus to the long side of the trade.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades with Wednesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 103.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY test the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
(http://s8.postimg.org/dvgl8q71h/05_06usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCHF continues to trade around the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction. USDCHF is now moving within the Fibonacci resistance area. This Fibonacci zone could possibly be viewed as a value area where shorts could potentially be added.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially trade higher within the Fibonacci area and test the 0.9020 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Gold
(http://s8.postimg.org/sm6rswlr9/05_6xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Gold experience a quiet day at the price action traded within the previous 3 days ranges.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to continue its move under the under the 1250.00 support level and test yesterdays lows.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the averages.
USDCAD
(http://s8.postimg.org/jicy679k5/05_06usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday USDCAD traded higher as the price action tested the 1.0940 resistance and closed above the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a daily down trend however the weekly uptrend continues to trade positively. A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.
However the recent price action has seen a double bottom form. This pattern has been confirmed with USDCAD trading higher.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened bullishly as the price action trades at the highs Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of the 1.0940 resistance level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the 1.0790 support level.
AUDUSD
(http://s8.postimg.org/r4lbhch0l/05_06audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD continued to trade between the averages and the converging triangle formation.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
The downside break opened up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.
The recent prior price action has had the effect of creating a bullish consolidation pattern at the highs of this daily up trend.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price trades within Wednesday’s candle ranges.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential a re-test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.
Oil
(http://s8.postimg.org/bkdxqt6w5/05_06oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Wednesday Oil tested the 8 period daily moving averages but was unable to sustain higher prices and by the end of business closed the day lower.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen OILUSD trade with a very large converging triangle formation.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 8 period daily moving averages and 103.00 levels.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade test to the 34 period daily moving averages.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
10th June 2014
EURUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/tqdmgtqe5/10_06eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Although Monday was a Bank Holiday for most of Continental Europe EURUSD did see a good range day. The price action initially tested the 1.3670 resistance level but was not able to sustain a move above this level. The failure to move higher eventually led to a strong down move with the price action closing under the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.
Last week’s price action and the rejection of the 1.3550 support level have put a question mark on the daily down trend.
From the perspective of a lower time frame the 4 hour chart on a swing bias has changed to up however yesterday we did see a strong corrective pullback. In remains to be seen if this pulls back is nothing more a controlled correction which will revert back to the upside. I am therefore monitoring the 1.3550 level for potential signs that EURUSD can hold above this level and trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows at the lows of Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3550 support level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action test the 8 period daily moving averages.
GBPUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/lv3320grh/10_06gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday GBPUSD had a quiet day as the price action closing marginally above the 1.6795 support level.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. More recently we have seen a corrective zigzag formation set up which is made up of lower highs and lower lows. A break below the 1.6700 support level would put a question mark over the current daily up trend as this would most probably change the trend on a swing basis to down.
From an intraday point of view the price action on both a swing and moving averages basis on a 4 hour chart is trading in an uptrend.
From a weekly perspective the price action has traded under its 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which come in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade down to the 1.6700 level.
USDJPY
(http://s4.postimg.org/6avpbh6n1/10_06usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDJPY experinced a quiet day following its failure to to sustain a move towards the 103.00 level.
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. The price action over the past few trading sessions has seen a move above both the 102.13 and 102.36 pivot highs. This could indicate that the daily trend could be coming back into line with the bullish weekly trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades under the 8 period daily moving averages.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back into the direction of the 103.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://s4.postimg.org/uc2lcxlgd/10_06usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDCHF bounced higher as the price action bounced off the 0.8930 support level and closed above the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction.
There has been a great deal of recent volatility with the 0.9037 level being the high of last week’s spike being a line that needs to be crossed if we are to see further strength in the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc.
As such USDCHF continues to trade within a weekly downtrend and the price action has moved back into the Fibonacci resistance areas. I am therefore monitoring the possibility of a rotation of the price action back to the short side.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of Monday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially test last week’s highs.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF break down from the Fibonacci area and trade down to the 34 period daily moving averages.
Gold
(http://s4.postimg.org/y5w1m32sd/10_06xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday Gold had a quiet day as the price action traded within a two day range.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to continue its move under the under the 1250.00 support level and test yesterdays lows.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1270.00 resistance level.
USDCAD
(http://s4.postimg.org/aqe4gqj19/10_06usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Monday USDCAD consolidated around its averages as the price action continued to test the 1.0940 resistance level.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a daily down trend however the weekly uptrend continues to trade positively. A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.
However the recent price action has seen a double bottom form. This pattern has been confirmed with USDCAD trading higher.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened negativley as the price action trades below Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a re-test 1.0940 resistance level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the 1.0790 support level.
AUDUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/hjehd09ul/10_06audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Monday AUDUSD had a quiet day as the price action traded within the previous days range.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
The downside break opened up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.
The recent prior price action has had the effect of creating a bullish consolidation pattern at the highs of this daily up trend.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bullishly as the price action tests trend line resistance.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential break above the triangle top.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.
Oil
(http://s4.postimg.org/z5mchshy5/10_06oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Monday Oil had a strong day as the price action traded up to the highs of the triangle top.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen OILUSD trade within a very large converging triangle formation.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened bullishly as the price action trades above Monday’s candle range and tests the triangle top and the 105.00 level.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the triangle top and the 105.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 8 period daily moving averages.
-
Daily Technical Analysis
11th June 2014
EURUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/o9wnygy4t/11_06eurusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD continued to trade lower as the price action tested and closed under the 1.3550 support level.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.
Last week’s price action and the rejection of the 1.3550 support level have put a question mark against the health daily down trend.
From the perspective of a lower time frame the 4 hour chart on a swing bias continues to point up however a breach of the 1.3500 level would turn the intraday bias to negative.
From a recent perspective what is of great interest the range of the 5th June candle. The range of this bar is a large 165 pips. Therefore a move above or below the high of this range should give an indication of the direction of the medium term price action with the key levels being 1.3670 up and 1.3500 down
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3500 pivot level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action trade back to the 8 period daily moving averages.
GBPUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/3ypepwv65/11_06gbpusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD traded lower as the price action failed to sustain a move above the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. More recently we have seen a corrective zigzag formation set up which is made up of lower highs and lower lows. A break below the 1.6700 support level would put a question mark over the current daily up trend as this would most probably change the trend on a swing basis to down.
From an intraday point of view the price action on both a swing and moving averages basis on a 4 hour chart is trading in an uptrend.
From a weekly perspective the price action has traded under its 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which come in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of 1.6750 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade down to the 1.6700 level.
USDJPY
(http://s28.postimg.org/hut1o2219/11_06usdjpy_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY experinced another quiet day following its failure to to sustain a move towards the 103.00 level.
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. The price action over the past few trading sessions has seen a move above both the 102.13 and 102.36 pivot highs. This could indicate that the daily trend could be coming back into line with the bullish weekly trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades under the 8 period daily moving averages.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back into the direction of the 103.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://s28.postimg.org/csgb70i4t/11_06usdchf_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF traded higher as the price action moved towards a potential test of the 0.9020 resistance level.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction.
There has been a great deal of recent volatility with the 0.9037 level being the high of last week’s spike being a line that needs to be crossed if we are to see further strength in the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc.
As such USDCHF continues to trade within a weekly downtrend and the price action has moved back into the Fibonacci resistance areas. I am therefore monitoring the possibility of a rotation of the price action back to the short side.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially test the 0.9020 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF break down from the Fibonacci area and trade down to the 0.8930 support level.
Gold
(http://s28.postimg.org/bsq0bb2z1/11_06xauusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Gold experienced a strong up day as the price action traded and closed and the previous 3 day range.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to continue its move under the under the 1270.00 resistance level and test yesterdays lows.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade back down to the 1250.00 support level.
USDCAD
(http://s28.postimg.org/uz37ehjgt/11_06usdcad_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday USDCAD continues to consolidate around its averages in what was a quiet days trading.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a daily down trend however the weekly uptrend continues to trade positively. A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.
However the recent price action has seen a double bottom form. This pattern has been confirmed with USDCAD trading higher.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened quietly as the price action trades below Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a re-test 1.0940 resistance level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the 1.0790 support level.
AUDUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/b5mi81gp9/11_06audusd_daily.png)
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD had a strong up day as the price action traded and closed above trendline resistance.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
The downside break opened up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.
However the recent prior price action has had the effect of creating a bullish consolidation pattern at the highs of this daily up trend with yesterday’s price actually breaking and closing above this price pattern.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bullishly as the price action tests the 0.9390 resistance level.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential continuation above the triangle top.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.
Oil
(http://s28.postimg.org/d3t661971/11_06oilusddaily.png)
Summary
Tuesday Oil attempted but failed to sustain a move above the 105.00 resistance level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen OILUSD trade within a very large converging triangle formation.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened bullishly as the price action trades with Tuesday’s candle range and tests the triangle top and the 105.00 level.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the triangle top and the 105.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 8 period daily moving averages.
-
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Intra Day Fractal Analysis
2nd July 2014
Currency pair: EURUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/soszlu00t/eurusd_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Price action: Moving averages have turned negative with the price action beginning to trend lower
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3675
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3685
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3678, R1 1.3704, R2 1.3730, S1 1.3653, S2 1.3627
Currency pair: GBPUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/fm1ygaz6l/gbpusd_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as a support area
Probable scenario: Long above 1.7152
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.7139
Intraday levels: Open: 1.7149, R1 1.7184, R2 1.7219, S1 1.7114, S2 1.7079
Currency pair: USDJPY
(http://s28.postimg.org/ybpcjb2jh/usdjpy_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as a support area
Probable scenario: Long above 101.65
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.51
Intraday levels: Open: 101.52, R1 101.70, R2 101.88, S1 101.33, S2 101.15
Currency pair: USDCHF
(http://s28.postimg.org/x0m6okwbh/usdchf_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Moving averages have turned positive with the price action beginning to trend higher
Probable scenario: Long above 0.8879
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.8872
Intraday levels: Open: 0.8874, R1 0.8894, R2 0.8914, S1 0.8854, S2 0.8835
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Intra Day Fractal Analysis
for 3rd July 2014
Currency pair: EURUSD
(http://s17.postimg.org/u7rqtam6n/eurusd_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Price action: Price action has corrected back up to the negatively layered moving averages and these could act as an area of resistance
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3646
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3660
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3658, R1 1.3683, R2 1.3708, S1 1.3633, S2 1.3608
Currency pair: GBPUSD
(http://s17.postimg.org/nl53044i7/gbpusd_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as an area of support
Probable scenario: Long above 1.7167
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.7149
Intraday levels: Open: 1.7164, R1 1.7197, R2 1.7230, S1 1.7131, S2 1.7098
Currency pair: USDJPY
(http://s17.postimg.org/qqpoqbn4f/usdjpy_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as an area of support
Probable scenario: Long above 101.94
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.75
Intraday levels: Open: 101.77, R1 101.95, R2 102.14, S1 101.58, S2 101.40
Currency pair: USDCHF
(http://s17.postimg.org/5fs4m24zz/usdchf_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Moving averages have turned positive with the price action beginning to trend higher
Probable scenario: Long above 0.8894
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.8887
Intraday levels: Open: 0.8888, R1 0.8907, R2 0.8926, S1 0.8869, S2 0.8850
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Intra Day Fractal Analysis
for 4th July 2014
Currency pair: EURUSD
(http://s2.postimg.org/rv3su9xi1/eurusd_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Price action: Price action trading lower following a move back to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3601
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3611
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3610, R1 1.3636, R2 1.3662, S1 1.3583, S2 1.3557
Currency pair: GBPUSD
(http://s2.postimg.org/6p9zzomop/gbpusd_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as an area of support
Probable scenario: Long above 1.7180
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.7149
Intraday levels: Open: 1.7154, R1 1.7188, R2 1.7223, S1 1.7120, S2 1.7085
Currency pair: USDJPY
(http://s2.postimg.org/degjfp80p/usdjpy_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action has corrected back down to the positively layered moving averages and these could act as an area of support
Probable scenario: Long above 102.22
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 102.17
Intraday levels: Open: 102.18, R1 102.38, R2 102.57, S1 101.99, S2 101.79
Currency pair: USDCHF
(http://s2.postimg.org/57ojo4hy1/usdchf_h1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action trading higher following a move back to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.8938
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.8930
Intraday levels: Open: 0.8932, R1 0.8952, R2 0.8972, S1 0.8911, S2 0.8891
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Intra Day Fractal Analysis
EURUSD
(http://s10.postimg.org/scq1fkt95/eurusdh1090714.png)
GBPUSD
(http://s10.postimg.org/7rb9nobo9/gbpusdh1090714.png)
USDJPY
(http://s10.postimg.org/eght3ox09/usdjpyh1090714.png)
USDCHF
(http://s10.postimg.org/b8dbqnaqh/usdchfh1090714.png)
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 24.07.2014
The London open
Currency pair: EURUSD
(http://s16.postimg.org/sab4f0c6t/2407ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: Price action trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages and this morning has already tested R1.
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3450
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3464
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3462, R1 1.3484, R2 1.3506, S1 1.3440, S2 1.3418
Currency pair: GBPUSD
(http://s16.postimg.org/nn52d8otx/2407ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading back into the negatively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.7023
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.7051
Intraday levels: Open: 1.7042, R1 1.7074, R2 1.7106, S1 1.7010, S2 1.6978
Currency pair: USDJPY
(http://s16.postimg.org/5beew3g6t/2407ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: Price action trading back into positively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Long above 101.58
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.45
Intraday levels: Open: 101.48, R1 101.64, R2 101.80, S1 101.31, S2 101.16
Currency pair: USDCHF
(http://s16.postimg.org/w7ye4ez05/2407ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: Intraday: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Price action: Price action trading back into positively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9031
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9020
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9022, R1 0.9037, R2 0.9053, S1 0.9006, S2 0.8991
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 25.07.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/84wdec3gd/2507ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: Moving averages have just turned positive with the price action trending higher.
Probable scenario: Long above 1.3473
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.3457
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3463, R1 1.3485, R2 1.3507, S1 1.3441, S2 1.3419
GBPUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/usbmkhj0d/2507ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading back into the negatively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6985
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6993
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6986, R1 1.7019, R2 1.7053, S1 1.6952, S2 1.6919
USDJPY
(http://s4.postimg.org/seya77tz1/2507ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: Price action trading back into positively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Long above 101.80
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.70
Intraday levels: Open: 101.80, R1 101.98, R2 102.15, S1 101.63, S2 101.46
USDCHF
(http://s4.postimg.org/6r9bwrtkt/2507ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Neutral
Price action: Moving averages are attempting to turn negative as the rice action moves lower.
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9030
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9007
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9025, R1 0.9040, R2 0.9056, S1 0.9009, S2 0.8994
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 28.07.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/wmot9gxa5/2807ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading back into the negatively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3426
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3436
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3431, R1 1.3453, R2 1.3476, S1 1.3408, S2 1.3385
GBPUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/o6z8ryuf1/2807ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading back into the negatively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6974
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6996
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6978, R1 1.7009, R2 1.7040, S1 1.6946, S2 1.6915
USDJPY
(http://s4.postimg.org/3o4cmwghp/2807ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: Price action trading back into positively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Long above 101.86
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.74
Intraday levels: Open: 101.78, R1 101.94, R2 102.11, S1 101.62, S2 101.46
USDCHF
(http://s4.postimg.org/wnyr2vz3x/2807ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: Price action trading back into positively layered moving averages.
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9052
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9043
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9045, R1 0.9061, R2 0.9076, S1 0.9029, S2 0.9014
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 29.07.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/tcfa3umtp/2907ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3420
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3444
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3438, R1 1.3458, R2 1.3479, S1 1.3417, S2 1.3396
GBPUSD
(http://s28.postimg.org/5zh8lc6q5/2907ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6966
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6989
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6982, R1 1.7011, R2 1.7040, S1 1.6953, S2 1.6924
USDJPY
(http://s28.postimg.org/md5ti8c99/2907ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The price action is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting pull back
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 101.82
Intraday levels: Open: 101.85, R1 102.00, R2 102.16, S1 101.70, S2 101.55
USDCHF
(http://s28.postimg.org/fy277tg5p/2907ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: The price action is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting pull back
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9038
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9039, R1 0.9053, R2 0.9068, S1 0.9024, S2 0.9009
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 30.07.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s10.postimg.org/qyfpguxyh/3007ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3400
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3416
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3408, R1 1.3429, R2 1.3449, S1 1.3387, S2 1.3366
GBPUSD
(http://s10.postimg.org/pn7y8e2cp/3007ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6940
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6955
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6943, R1 1.6972, R2 1.7002, S1 1.6914, S2 1.6884
USDJPY
(http://s10.postimg.org/fbvlfqand/3007ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The price action is correcting down towards the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 102.16
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 102.03
Intraday levels: Open: 102.11, R1 102.27, R2 102.42, S1 101.95, S2 101.80
USDCHF
(http://s10.postimg.org/3y924j04p/3007ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: The price action is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9074
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9064
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9069, R1 0.9084, R2 0.9099, S1 0.9053, S2 0.9038
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 31.07.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s21.postimg.org/5kpyd23br/3107ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is correcting up towards the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3390
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3400
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3396, R1 1.3417, R2 1.3438, S1 1.3375, S2 1.3353
GBPUSD
(http://s21.postimg.org/84ll75qvr/3107ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is correcting up towards the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6904
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6928
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6910, R1 1.6940, R2 1.6970, S1 1.6881, S2 1.6851
USDJPY
(http://s21.postimg.org/4jppnxmc7/3107ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The price action is correcting down towards the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 102.88
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 102.73
Intraday levels: Open: 102.79, R1 103.00, R2 103.19, S1 102.60, S2 102.40
USDCHF
(http://s21.postimg.org/pjaet6def/3107ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: The price action is correcting down towards the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9090
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9082
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9086, R1 0.9101, R2 0.9117, S1 0.9070, S2 0.9054
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 01.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s18.postimg.org/mwsxe3vuh/0108ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is correcting up towards the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3382
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3392
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3390, R1 1.3410, R2 1.3430, S1 1.3370, S2 1.3349
GBPUSD
(http://s18.postimg.org/t0ahy0m49/0108ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is correcting up towards the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6867
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6893
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6884, R1 1.6915, R2 1.6945, S1 1.6854, S2 1.6823
USDJPY
(http://s18.postimg.org/61idsufi1/0108_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The price action is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 103.00
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 102.73
Intraday levels: Open: 102.79, R1 102.97, R2 103.16, S1 102.60, S2 102.40
USDCHF
(http://s18.postimg.org/45r03y1a1/0108_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: The price action is correcting down towards the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9095
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9082
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9087, R1 0.9102, R2 0.9118, S1 0.9071, S2 0.9056
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 04.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/udef45ckh/0408ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The price action is correcting down towards the positively layered moving
Probable scenario: Long above 1.3433
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.3417
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3429, R1 1.3451, R2 1.3473, S1 1.3407, S2 1.3385
GBPUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/fiptpz2zl/0408ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is correcting up towards the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6816
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6833
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6830, R1 1.6863, R2 1.6895, S1 1.6798, S2 1.6766
USDJPY
(http://s30.postimg.org/gm9y1xnmp/0408ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is correcting up towards the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 102.47
Alternate scenario: Awaiting pullback
Intraday levels: Open: 102.54, R1 102.75, R2 102.96, S1 102.33, S2 102.12
USDCHF
(http://s30.postimg.org/d3xy5jmqp/0408ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Down
Price action: The price action is correcting up towards the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9067
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9045
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9046, R1 0.9063, R2 0.9080, S1 0.9029, S2 0.9011
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 07.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s11.postimg.org/x92je0nkz/0708ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The price action is correcting down towards the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.3391
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.3379
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3383, R1 1.3406, R2 1.3429, S1 1.3360, S2 1.3337
GBPUSD
(http://s11.postimg.org/nd1gedhsz/0708ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading lower and away from negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting short set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6864
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6853, R1 1.6884, R2 1.6914, S1 1.6823, S2 1.6792
USDJPY
(http://s11.postimg.org/3jtxzetsz/0708ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is correcting up towards the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 102.03
Alternate scenario: Long above 102.64
Intraday levels: Open: 102.08, R1 102.31, R2 102.54, S1 101.85, S2 101.62
USDCHF
(http://s11.postimg.org/xpsce70pv/0708ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: The price action is correcting up towards the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9071
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9075, R1 0.9093, R2 0.9111, S1 0.9056, S2 0.9038
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 08.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s16.postimg.org/l6lbzq9kl/0808ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The price action is correcting up towards the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3343
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3366
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3362, R1 1.3385, R2 1.3409, S1 1.3338, S2 1.3314
GBPUSD
(http://s16.postimg.org/fjoz2971x/0808ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading lower and away from negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting short set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6837
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6832, R1 1.6861, R2 1.6890, S1 1.6802, S2 1.6773
USDJPY
(http://s16.postimg.org/61ttfyar9/0808ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDJPY is trading lower and away from negatively layered moving
Probable scenario: Awaiting short set up
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 102.07, R1 102.30, R2 102.53, S1 101.84, S2 101.62
USDCHF
(http://s16.postimg.org/e5xc6y7sl/0808ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Down
Price action: USDCHF is trading lower and away from negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9069
Alternate scenario: Long above 0.9098
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9088, R1 0.9106, R2 0.9125, S1 0.9070, S2 0.9051
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 12.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s23.postimg.org/dygvabc7v/1208ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading down and away from negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3367
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3376
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3384, R1 1.3409, R2 1.3434, S1 1.3359, S2 1.3334
GBPUSD
(http://s23.postimg.org/5exhck3vf/1208ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBP is trading down and away from negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting short set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6792
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6787, R1 1.6814, R2 1.6842, S1 1.6759, S2 1.6732
USDJPY
(http://s23.postimg.org/p0ly8r6aj/1208ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading up and away from positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 102.36
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 102.19, R1 102.43, R2 102.63, S1 101.97, S2 101.75
USDCHF
(http://s23.postimg.org/q1m6xvna3/1208ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: USDCHF is trading up and away from positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9083
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9073
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9065, R1 0.9084, R2 0.9103, S1 0.9047, S2 0.9028
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 14.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s2.postimg.org/8pmzv0oy1/1408ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading down and away from negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3355
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3367
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3365, R1 1.3391, R2 1.3418, S1 1.3338, S2 1.3312
GBPUSD
(http://s2.postimg.org/h5ckcirt5/1408ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBP is trading up to negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6669
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6692
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6689, R1 1.6724, R2 1.6759, S1 1.6654, S2 1.6619
USDJPY
(http://s2.postimg.org/s8rl4dnpl/1408ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading down to positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 102.65
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 102.39
Intraday levels: Open: 102.42, R1 102.62, R2 102.83, S1 102.22, S2 102.01
USDCHF
(http://s2.postimg.org/dzrymb96x/1408ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: USDCHF s trading down to positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9087
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9070
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9074, R1 0.9094, R2 0.9114, S1 0.9054, S2 0.9034
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 18.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/43jsrlw01/1808ldn_EURUSD_H.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading down to positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.3400
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.3387
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3390, R1 1.3417, R2 1.3444, S1 1.3363, S2 1.3336
GBPUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/n9wzuscht/1808ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: GBP is trading down to positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.6731
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.6712
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6729, R1 1.6759, R2 1.6789, S1 1.6698, S2 1.6668
USDJPY
(http://s30.postimg.org/c049zu7gh/1808ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDJPY is trading up to negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 102.24
Alternate scenario: Long above 102.45
Intraday levels: Open: 102.32, R1 102.53, R2 102.74, S1 102.11, S2 101.89
USDCHF
(http://s30.postimg.org/d3oebss3l/1808ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Down
Price action: USDCHF is trading up to negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9022
Alternate scenario: Long above 0.9040
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9023, R1 0.9044, R2 0.9065, S1 0.9001, S2 0.8980
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 19.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/pxf5cil6f/1908ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3352
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3366
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3363, R1 1.3389, R2 1.3416, S1 1.3337, S2 1.3310
GBPUSD
(http://s13.postimg.org/ec4z4szp3/1908ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: GBP is trading down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.6737
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.6712
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6727, R1 1.6756, R2 1.6786, S1 1.6698, S2 1.6668
USDJPY
(http://s13.postimg.org/le2wr03av/1908ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 102.65
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 102.51
Intraday levels: Open: 102.56, R1 102.76, R2 102.97, S1 102.35, S2 102.14
USDCHF
(http://s13.postimg.org/ln0hgxg3b/1908ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: USDCHF is trading down to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9072
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9060
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9064, R1 0.9086, R2 0.9107, S1 0.9043, S2 0.9021
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 25.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s17.postimg.org/ndzd30ixr/2508ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading down and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3185
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3213
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3197, R1 1.3225, R2 1.3254, S1 1.3169, S2 1.3140
GBPUSD
(http://s17.postimg.org/4kdk60kpr/2508ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6535
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6586
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6542, R1 1.6573, R2 1.6604, S1 1.6512, S2 1.6481
USDJPY
(http://s17.postimg.org/jx1wds99b/2508ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 104.27
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 104.12
Intraday levels: Open: 104.26, R1 104.50, R2 104.76, S1 104.00, S2 103.76
USDCHF
(http://s17.postimg.org/oufgywb8f/2508ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: USDCHF is trading down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9179
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9156
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9172, R1 0.9194, R2 0.9216, S1 0.9151, S2 0.9129
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 26.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s27.postimg.org/hklftcgc3/2608ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3178
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3213
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3191, R1 1.3220, R2 1.3248, S1 1.3163, S2 1.3135
GBPUSD
(http://s27.postimg.org/9pawej6pf/2608ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.6595
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.6565
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6578, R1 1.6609, R2 1.6640, S1 1.6547, S2 1.6516
USDJPY
(http://s27.postimg.org/rvxsm081f/2608ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDJPY is trading up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 103.74
Alternate scenario: Long above 104.12
Intraday levels: Open: 104.05, R1 104.29, R2 104.54, S1 103.80, S2 103.56
USDCHF
(http://[IMG]http://s27.postimg.org/asv0qhrcj/2608ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)[/IMG]
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Down
Price action: USDCHF is trading down and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9140
Alternate scenario: Long above 0.9164
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9153, R1 0.9175, R2 0.9196, S1 0.9131, S2 0.9110
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 27.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/m3s060871/2708ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.3152
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3210
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3168, R1 1.3195, R2 1.3223, S1 1.3140, S2 1.3112
GBPUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/5oy2tfq7x/2708ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6536
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6560
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6540, R1 1.6570, R2 1.6600, S1 1.6509, S2 1.6479
USDJPY
(http://s4.postimg.org/9zcqp0vb1/2708ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 104.17
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 103.93
Intraday levels: Open: 104.06, R1 104.29, R2 104.54, S1 103.80, S2 103.56
USDCHF
(http://s4.postimg.org/649cmgc59/2708ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: USDCHF is trading down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9185
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9171
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9174, R1 0.9195, R2 0.9217, S1 0.9152, S2 0.9131
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 28.08.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/w8yno1mz1/2808ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting pull back
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.3188
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3193, R1 1.3221, R2 1.3249, S1 1.3165, S2 1.3137
GBPUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/47kmachot/2808ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.6604
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.6570
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6574, R1 1.6605, R2 1.6635, S1 1.6543, S2 1.6512
USDJPY
(http://s4.postimg.org/woeiusya5/2808ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDJPY is trading up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 103.69
Alternate scenario: Long above 103.92
Intraday levels: Open: 103.87, R1 104.10, R2 104.35, S1 103.63, S2 103.40
USDCHF
(http://s4.postimg.org/b0pkkcxvx/2808ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: USDCHF is trading up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9131
Alternate scenario: Long above 0.9151
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9147, R1 0.9168, R2 0.9190, S1 0.9125, S2 0.9103
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 02.09.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s27.postimg.org/d3ubogzb7/0209ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting short set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.3133
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3127, R1 1.3154, R2 1.3181, S1 1.3101, S2 1.3074
GBPUSD
(http://s27.postimg.org/8tfnsvu83/0209ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6577
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6615
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6606, R1 1.6635, R2 1.6664, S1 1.6576, S2 1.6547
USDJPY
(http://s27.postimg.org/510qqw43n/0209ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading up and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 104.34, R1 104.55, R2 104.77, S1 104.12, S2 103.91
USDCHF
(http://s27.postimg.org/nfb9uvgeb/0209ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: USDCHF is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9192
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9195, R1 0.9215, R2 0.9235, S1 0.9175, S2 0.9155
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 03.09.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s18.postimg.org/eq0ahh8fd/0309ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The layered moving averages have just turned positive
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.3121
Intraday levels: Open: 1.3132, R1 1.3157, R2 1.3182, S1 1.3107, S2 1.3082
GBPUSD
(http://s18.postimg.org/5m1vh16uh/0309ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6444
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6467, R1 1.6503, R2 1.6538, S1 1.6432, S2 1.6397
USDJPY
(http://s18.postimg.org/qho5sa31l/0309ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 105.31
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 105.10, R1 105.35, R2 105.60, S1 104.85, S2 104.60
USDCHF
(http://s18.postimg.org/q3mtsoiy1/0309ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Down
Price action: USDCHF is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting short set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 0.9200
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9190, R1 0.9209, R2 0.9228, S1 0.9171, S2 0.9152
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 05.09.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s27.postimg.org/x7me57hrn/0509ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2919
Alternate scenario: Awaiting for long setup
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2941, R1 1.2978, R2 1.3014, S1 1.2904, S2 1.2868
GBPUSD
(http://s27.postimg.org/a4vv61gab/0509ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6286
Alternate scenario: Awaiting for long setup
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6324, R1 1.6363, R2 1.6402, S1 1.6285, S2 1.6246
USDJPY
(http://s27.postimg.org/n03ussvjn/0509ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 105.19
Intraday levels: Open: 105.24, R1 105.51, R2 105.76, S1 104.98, S2 104.73
USDCHF
(http://s27.postimg.org/sn07q9y2b/0509ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: USDCHF is trading is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9335
Alternate scenario: Await short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9319, R1 0.9345, R2 0.9371, S1 0.9294, S2 0.9268
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 09.09.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s9.postimg.org/7wsrr8gtb/0909ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading lower and away from its negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting short set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.2901
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2894, R1 1.2930, R2 1.2967, S1 1.2857, S2 1.2821
GBPUSD
(http://s9.postimg.org/rfxd0lfkv/0909ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading lower and away from its negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting short set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6107
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6104, R1 1.6152, R2 1.6200, S1 1.6056, S2 1.6008
USDJPY
(http://s9.postimg.org/n9cil9fz3/0909ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDJPY is trading higher and away from its positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 105.94
Intraday levels: Open: 106.04, R1 106.37, R2 106.70, S1 105.71, S2 105.38
USDCHF
(http://s9.postimg.org/qroihngv3/0909ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDCHF is trading is trading up and away from its positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9355, R1 0.9381, R2 0.9408, S1 0.9328, S2 0.9301
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London Open Intra Day Analysis 23.09.2014
The London open
EURUSD
(http://s17.postimg.org/wf252zozz/2309ldn_EURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The layered moving averages have just turned positive
Probable scenario: Long above 1.2864
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2847, R1 1.2887, R2 1.2927, S1 1.2807, S2 1.2767
GBPUSD
(http://s17.postimg.org/4szdib5n3/2309ldn_GBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The layered moving averages have just turned positive
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.6322
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6360, R1 1.6420, R2 1.6481, S1 1.6299, S2 1.6238
USDJPY
(http://s17.postimg.org/eesxylwsv/2309ldn_USDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDJPY is trading down and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 108.59
Alternate scenario: Long above 108.86
Intraday levels: Open: 108.82, R1 109.16, R2 109.49, S1 108.47, S2 108.14
USDCHF
(http://s17.postimg.org/vtd66vtxr/2309ldn_USDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The layered moving averages have just turned negative
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9384
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9399, R1 0.9432, R2 0.9464, S1 0.9367, S2 0.9334
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The London Open Intra Day Analysis 12.11.2014
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1211ldnEURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.2474
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.2453
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2473, R1 1.2530, R2 1.2592, S1 1.2389, S2 1.2369
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1112ldnGBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.5924
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.5903
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5818, R1 1.5987, R2 1.6066, S1 1.5811, S2 1.5732
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1211ldnUSDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 115.88
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 115.24
Intraday levels: Open: 115.78, R1 116.21, R2 116.79, S1 114.74, S2 114.16
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1211ldnEURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDCHF is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9646
Alternate scenario: Long above 0.9655
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9644, R1 0.9710, R2 0.9760, S1 0.9601, S2 0.9553
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The New York Open 14.11.2014.
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1411nyEURUSDH1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2425
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.2471
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2475, R1 1.2525, R2 1.2590, S1 1.2390, S2 1.2350
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1411nyGBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5655
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5706
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5705, R1 1.5715, R2 1.5800, S1 1.5625, S2 1.5550
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1411nyUSDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 115.70
Intraday levels: Open: 115.75, R1 116.55, R2 117.10, S1 115.85, S2 115.20
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1411nyUSDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDCHF is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9672
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9635
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9663, R1 0.9715, R2 0.9760, S1 0.9605, S2 0.9555
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The New York Open 18.11.2014.
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1811nyEURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.2467
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2450, R1 1.2545, R2 1.2605, S1 1.2405, S2 1.2345
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1811nyGBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5630
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5657
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5637, R1 1.5735, R2 1.5815, S1 1.5570, S2 1.5490
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1811nyUSDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 117.05
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 116.40
Intraday levels: Open: 116.62, R1 117.15, R2 117.70, S1 115.80, S2 115.20
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/1811nyUSDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDCHF is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9577
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9645, R1 0.9680, R2 0.9730, S1 0.9575, S2 0.9530
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The New York Open 18.11.2014.
EURUSD
(http://worldwide-invest.org/images/imported/2014/11/87.jpg)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.2467
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2450, R1 1.2545, R2 1.2605, S1 1.2405, S2 1.2345
GBPUSD
(http://worldwide-invest.org/images/imported/2014/11/88.jpg)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5630
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5657
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5637, R1 1.5735, R2 1.5815, S1 1.5570, S2 1.5490
USDJPY
(http://worldwide-invest.org/images/imported/2014/11/89.jpg)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 117.05
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 116.40
Intraday levels: Open: 116.62, R1 117.15, R2 117.70, S1 115.80, S2 115.20
USDCHF
(http://worldwide-invest.org/images/imported/2014/11/90.jpg)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDCHF is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9577
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9645, R1 0.9680, R2 0.9730, S1 0.9575, S2 0.9530
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The New York Open 20.11.2014.
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2011nyEURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2505
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.2575
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2554, R1 1.2610, R2 1.2670, S1 1.2470, S2 1.2405
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2011nyGBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.5687
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.5645
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5680, R1 1.5755, R2 1.5830, S1 1.5580, S2 1.5500
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2011nyUSDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 117.88
Intraday levels: Open: 117.93, R1 119.00, R2 119.50, S1 118.00, S2 117.50
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2011nyUSDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDCHF is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9606
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9552
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9568, R1 0.9630, R2 0.9680, S1 0.9525, S2 0.9475
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The London open 21.11.2014.
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2111ldnEURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.2570
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.2530
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2539, R1 1.2620, R2 1.2680, S1 1.2475, S2 1.2410
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2111ldnGBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.5715
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.5670
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5692, R1 1.5770, R2 1.5855, S1 1.5600, S2 1.5525
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2111ldnUSDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 117.35
Alternate scenario: Long above 118.37
Intraday levels: Open: 118.14, R1 118.70, R2 119.25, S1 117.20, S2 116.20
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2111ldnUSDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Neutral
Outlook: USDCHF is trading around the moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9605
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9550
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9582, R1 0.9635, R2 0.9680, S1 0.9525, S2 0.9475
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The New York Open 24.11.2014.
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2411nyEURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2373
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2363, R1 1.2420, R2 1.2490, S1 1.2350, S2 1.2300
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2411nyGBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5635
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5675
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5635, R1 1.5750, R2 1.5825, S1 1.5575, S2 1.5500
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2411nyUSDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Neutral
Outlook: USDJPY is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 117.55
Alternate scenario: Long above 118.00
Intraday levels: Open: 117.92, R1 118.50, R2 119.00, S1 117.15, S2 116.55
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2411nyUSDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDCHF is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9719
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9725, R1 0.9735, R2 0.9785, S1 0.9680, S2 0.9630
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The London open 24.11.2014.
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2411ldnEURUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2385
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2363, R1 1.2420, R2 1.2490, S1 1.2350, S2 1.2300
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2411ldnGBPUSD_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5635
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5675
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5635, R1 1.5750, R2 1.5825, S1 1.5575, S2 1.5500
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2411ldnUSDJPY_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Neutral
Outlook: USDJPY is trading around the moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 117.55
Alternate scenario: Long above 118.00
Intraday levels: Open: 117.92, R1 118.50, R2 119.00, S1 117.15, S2 116.55
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2411ldnUSDCHF_H1.png)
Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDCHF is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9725, R1 0.9735, R2 0.9785, S1 0.9680, S2 0.9630
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Detailed technical outlook
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2511ldnEURUSD_H1.png)
RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
1.2450 1.2500 1.2360 1.2260
Yesterday’s move lower did test but failed to breach the 1.2357 level being the low of November 7. This led to a good rally taking place during Monday’s London and New York trading sessions.
Although it would now appear that on a daily chart basis that EURUSD is attempting to put in a double bottom the down move has been so aggressive and that a great deal more confirmation is required before I can safely say that the daily trend is turning from down to up.
On an intraday 1 hour basis EURUSD continues to trade in a down trend following the breach of the 1.2500 area which equates to the swing low of November 19.
A continuation of the trend lower could take EURUSD to support levels of 1.2360 and then 1.2260.
Alternatively a breach and 1 hour close above the 1.2450 level which coincides with the current swing high would technically change the trend on a swing basis to up.
The upside targets are 1.2500 and 1.2570.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2511ldnGBPUSD_H1.png)
RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
1.5715 1.5740 1.5675 1.5625
GBPUSD continues to trade in a strong aggressive down trend however the price action over the past two weeks has been in consolidation mode.
There are aspects of a possible daily double bottom forming around the 1.5590 level. It would be of interest to see if GBPUSD can kick higher from the current level and enter a period of upside correction that takes the price action into major daily resistance at the 1.5800 area.
The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD is currently experiencing some choppiness as the price action trades above the key 1.5600 level.
In terms of swings the 1 hour trend has been positive since the breach and close above the 1.5675 swing high.
A continuation of the move higher could possibly take GBPUSD up to the 1.5715 and 1.5740 levels.
Alternatively a successful test of the 1.5675 support level could see GBPUSD trade down to the 1.5625 level.
This (1.5625) level equates to the area of the prior swing low. A breach of this level would therefore effectively change the intraday trend from up to down.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2511ldnUSDJPY_H1.png)
RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
118.60 119.00 117.35 116.30
Tokyo continues to be the centre of a great deal of economic news and this is driving the action on USDJPY.
USDJPY has had a meteoric rise however the price action over the past few days has been stuck stubbornly beneath the 118.98 which if the recent high.
Dropping down to the 1 hour chart USDJPY continues to trade in an intraday up trend however the bulls might have concerns that this up move is running out of steam at least for the time being.
The reason for this is that it might appear that USDJPY is attempting to put in place a near term top and a lower high swing.
If the upside bias is to continue confirmation of this is required by USDJPY breaching the 118.60 level with any follow through resulting in a test of the 119.00 high.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 117.35 support level. A breach of this level will technically change the trend from up to down as the 117.35 levels corresponds with the most recent higher low swing.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2511ldnUSDCHF_H1.png)
RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
0.9730 0.9745 0.9660 0.9550
Over the past few trading sessions USDCHF has experienced a text book pullback and bounce higher as the price action traded within a daily uptrend.
On an intraday basis USDCHF is trading within an intraday up trend. The current upside targets for USDCHF being the 0.9730 and 0.9745.
Alternatively a breach and close beneath the 0.9660 support level would technically change the trend to down.
Further downside targets are 0.9605 and 0.9550.
XAUUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2511goldXAUUSD_H1.png)
RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
1208.00 1222.00 1192.50 1186.50
Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.
This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.
Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.
However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.
On a 1 hour basis XAUUSD is technically trading in an uptrend on a 1 hour swing basis with the current upside targets being 1208.00 and then 1222.00.
Alternatively a successful test of the 1192.50 level would breach the prior higher low swing and technically change the trend to down.
The down side targets for XAUUSD being 1186.50 and 1181.00.
OILUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2511ldnCLF5H1.png)
RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
77.00 77.90 75.40 74.75
Oil has over the past few days traded off its yearly lows as the market awaits news from OPEC and the plans for future production levels.
On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart is showing signs of weakness as the price action has now breached a prior higher low at the 75.84 level and put in a lower high swing.
A continuation of the move lower could see Oil test the 74.40 level and then go on further to test the 74.75 and 74.15 levels.
Alternatively an agreement on production quotas could see Oil test the 77.00 level being the current 1 hour swing high and then go on to test the 77.90 level.
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ACFX London opening technical report - 26.11.2014
What news will drive the markets today
With the USA heading into the Thanks Giving holiday it would not be unexpected to see the markets experience irregular volatility and low liquidity. However there are some important news releases that are coming out today which could have some impact on todays tradng direction.
We start off early in the European market with the UK's release of the Second Estitmate GDP numbers. The market is looking for no change at 0.7% with a number lower than this possibly adding downside pressure once again on the embattled Pound.
Across the Atlantic at 1:30pm we have the latest release from the Census Bureau of the Core Durable goods number. The market is looking for a beat of the prior report of -0.1% with a consensus estimate of 0.5%.
Later in the afternoon we have the important New Home Sales release again frorm the Census Bureau with traders looking for a continuation of the positive trend. The expectations are for an actual of 471K against the prior of 467K.
In the evening Kiwi watches will be monitoring the news wires for the latest release of the New Zealand Trade Balance. The market expects an improvement of the countries trade balance sheet with estimates of tonights release coming in at -645M against a prior of -1350M.
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Detailed technical outlook
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2611aldnEURUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Over the past two trading sessions EURUSD has had somewhat of a mini rally with the price action yesterday closing well above the highs of Monday’s candle.
There is a definite feel that a double forming is forming on the daily chart. However as we all know there is no such thing as a definite in trading. Therefore caution should always be exercised as price patterns have a nasty habit of failing.
If however this double top formation does pan out then realistically aim for the highs of the last swing pivot at 1.2600. If this move does gather steam then a price target of 1.2885 being the swing high of October 15 comes into play.
A failure of EURUSD to trade higher could see a retest of the 1.2360 level and a serious attempt at the 1.2050 level which coincides with a prior monthly swing low.
The intraday technical outlook
Dropping down the intraday chart the 1 hour time frame is currently trading in an uptrend. The upside target for today being 1.2500 and then 1.2570.
Alternatively a move lower could see EURUSD initial test the 1.2445 intraday support level with a breach of the 1.2400 level changing the trend from up to down. Additional downside target can be found at 1.2360 level however the possibility of this level being hit today may be limited as such a move will be outside the parameters of the typical trading range.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2611ldnGBPUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
GBPUSD over the past few weeks or so continues to trade above the key 1.5600 support level with the price action consolidating within a 150 pip range.
The price action in fact is beginning to form a bottoming triangle formation. This is especially clear on the 4 hour time frame.
It remains to be seen however if this pattern is part of a bullish reversal pattern or nothing more than a precursor of an ABC bearish continuation pattern.
As mentioned in yesterdays post a move higher could see GBPUSD target the 1.5800 resistance level.
On the other side of the coin a continuation of the down trend would have the bears aiming their sights once again on the 1.5590 level.
The intraday technical outlook
The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD continues to be bullish with the price action as I write testing the 1.5715 resistance level. The next upside targets at 1.5740 and then 1.5785.
Alternatively a successful test of the 1.5690 support level would technical change the trend from up to down.
The downside targets if GBPUSD was to breach support being 1.5640 and 1.5360.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2611ldnUSDJPY_H1.png)
The macro technical view
USDJPY continues to take breather beneath the 119.00 level with this week’s price action consolidating within the range of last week’s candle.
In terms of the macro view we really need to see a weekly close above or beneath last week’s candle as an indication of the possible medium term direction.
The intraday technical outlook
The 1 hour view has USDJPY trading in an intraday uptrend. However there are signs of negative momentum coming into play following the formation of a lower high.
Furthermore as I write USDJPY is attempting to test the 117.65 level being the area of the prior higher low. Although this level has been breached I would like first to see a 1 hour close beneath this level for confirmation that the trend has turned from up to down.
The current upside targets are 118.30 and 118.60.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 117.35 and 117.05 support levels.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2611ldnUSDCHF_H1.png)
The macro technical view
The daily chart has now thrown up a question mark about the strength of the current trend in USDCHF with the failure of the price action to trade above the 0.9745 level putting focuses on the bull’s willingness to stay the course.
Could it be that the past couple of week’s price action is now signaling a near term top?
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the breach the close under the 0.9660 level being the prior swing low level has technically changed the trend to down.
A continuation of the move with a successful test of the 0.9630 level could put into play a move to the 0.9605 level.
Alternatively a rejection of lower prices could potentially see USDCHF test the 0.9660 level with a further move above the 0.9700 changing the 1 hour trend to up.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2611ldnAUDUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday AUDUSD resumed its downward course as the price action penetrated the 0.8540 level.
Switching over to a monthly chart the move down would appear that a large head and shoulders scenario is potentially playing out with the 0.8065 level now is targeted by the bears.
The intraday technical outlook
Dropping down to the 1 hour time frame a continuation of the move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.8530 and then the 0.8510 level,
Alternatively and as posted yesterday a change of intraday trend from down to up will happen if AUDUSD can successfully test the 0.8725 level.
As this level is way off from the current price action I am monitoring the potential for possible double bottom and higher low forming.
This should mean that AUDUSD will trade above the 0.8600 resistance level and then target R2 at 0.8650.
XAUUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2611ldnXAUUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
As posted yesterday Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.
This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.
Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.
However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.
The intraday technical outlook
On a 1 hour basis XAUUSD is technically trading in an uptrend on a 1 hour swing basis however during yesterday’s trading we did have an unsuccessful test of the 1192.50 level.
A close beneath this level would technically change the 1 hour trend to down.
The current upside targets for XAUUSD being 1203.00 and then 1208.00.
Alternatively a successful test of the 1192.50 level could propel Gold down to 1186.50 and 1181.00.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2611ldnCLF5H1.png)
The macro technical view
With this week’s OPEC meeting happening tomorrow the question of will this club decide to cut or not to cut production is dominating the current price action.
On the daily chart we did get an upside correction however the price action over the past two days has paired most of the gains that had been made.
No agreement on quotas could see Oil test the 73.20 level being the most recent isolated low.
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart continues to show signs of weakness with the piece action currently testing the 73.85 support level.
Further downside momentum could see Oil target the 73.20 level and then the 71.50 level.
Alternatively an agreement on production quotas could see Oil test the 76.55 level being the current 1 hour swing high and then go on to test the 77.90 level.
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London opening technical report 27.11.2014.
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2711ldnEURUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
The bullish feel to the bigger time frames continued yesterday with the double bottom scenario playing out on the 4 hour and daily charts.
Yesterday’s daily candle closed above the high of the range of the prior day’s range the momentum is currently to the upside the medium term upside target of 1.2885 being the swing high of October 15 still a realistic possibility.
I have shorter term upside targets at the 1.2615 and 1.2770 being prior swing pivots.
The intraday technical outlook
Dropping down the intraday chart the 1 hour time frame is currently trading in an uptrend with price action currently trading just above the 1.2500 support level.
Today’s intraday upside targets are 1.2570 and 1.2600.
Alternatively a breach of the 1.2500 level could see EURUSD target the 1.2445 level.
A breach of this level would mean that the price action would have traded under the prior swing low and therefore technically changes the 1 hour trend to down
This would open up the possibility of a mover down to the 1.2400 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2711ldnGBPUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
The mini revival for Cable has pushed GBPUSD to the lofty heights of the 1.5800 big figure.
Yesterday I wrote about the potential of GBPUSD breaking above its 4 hour bullish triangle formation. This duly happened during yesterday’s trading.
With the 1.5800 level in touching distance the next obvious target level will become the 1.5835.
However the possibility does still remain that the bulls are being set up for a trap as a bearish ABC continuation pattern unfolds.
A move lower would aim to target the 1.5630 and 1.5590 levels which coincide with priors 4 hour swing low points.
The intraday technical outlook
The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD did hit the initial target of 1.5800 with eyes now being focused on the potential move above this daily resistance point and for a move higher to 1.5835 and then 1.5920.
Alternatively a breach of the 1.5785 level opens up the possibility of a move down to 1.5740 and the 1.5715.
A successful test of the 1.5675 level would breach the prior higher low and change the trend from up to down.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2711ldnUSDJPY_H1.png)
The macro technical view
As posted yesterday USDJPY continues to take breather beneath the 119.00 level with this week’s price action consolidating within the range of last week’s candle.
In terms of the macro view we really need to see a weekly close above or beneath last week’s candle as an indication of the possible medium term direction.
The 4 hour trend is now also looking bearish with the price action now painting a lower low, lower high and lower low sequence.
It remains to be seen if this price pattern is the precursor of a tipping point that propels USDJPY down to the 117.00 where we have support coming in off the back of 4 hour swing high pivots.
However the scenario of a potential bullish ABC pattern does also exist and traders will need to watch out for possible upside breakaways from the current 4 hour down trend.
The intraday technical outlook
Taking a look at the 1 hour time frame USDJPY has now breached and is trading under the 117.65 level which coincided with a higher low swing. This has effectively changed the trend from up to down.
USDJPY as I write is testing the 117.35 level. A continuation lower could see USDJPY trade down to the 117.05 and then the 116.30 levels.
Alternatively a bounce off support could potentially see USDJPY test the 117.65 level with a continuation and breach of the 118.30 level technically changing the trend from down to up.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2711ldnUSDCHF_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday I asked the question “is USDCHF” looking toppish”?
Well going by the price action over the past three days and the inability to climb above the 0.9745 does seem to confirm this scenario.
If USDCHF can now trade under the 0.9530 level, the price action would have painted a lower high and lower low swing. This would technically change the daily trend from up to down for the first time in what has been a very long period of weakness for the Swiss Franc.
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday the close under the 0.9660 level being the prior swing low level has technically changed the trend to down.
The price targets of 0.9630 and 0.9605 where both hit during yesterday’s trading
With the price action now hovering above the 0.9605 levels and successful penetration of support would open up the possibility of a move down to the 0.9550 and 0.9530 levels.
Alternatively a rejection of lower prices could potentially see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9630.
A successful test of the 0.9665 level would breach the prior lower high and turn the 1 hour trend from down to up.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2711ldnAUDUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
This morning’s positive and unexpected market data release has propelled AUDUSD higher during the Tokyo and early into the European sessions.
However the daily trend does look horribly down and to try and bet on a bottom being put in off one piece of good data could be a little premature if one was to look at the strength of the daily down trend.
Yesterday I wrote about the monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level.
The possibility of this happening does not go away.
For the longer term bulls to gain any confidence in a rival of the Aussie Dollar we really need to see a breach of a lower high swing on the 4 hour chart.
With the current last isolated 4 hour high coming in at the 0.8725 level for this to happen needs a lot more buyers of the Australian Dollar to enter into the market.
The intraday technical outlook
The 1 hour chart has today given us our lower high breach with the 0.8565 broken during the Australian session.
Confirmation that the 1 hour up trend is in good health would require the formation of a higher lower and for the price action to stay above the 0.8480 level.
The current upside targets are 0.8650 and 0.8695.
Alternatively a test of the 0.8600 support level could see AUDUSD test the 0.8565 and 0.8535 levels.
A breach of the 0.8480 level would change the 1 hour trend from up to down.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2711ldnXAUUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
As per my prior posts Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.
This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.
Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.
However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.
Looking at the weekly time frame this week’s price action has been trading within the previous week’s price action.
A move away from the 1209.00 and 1175.00 being last week’s candle range should give us more clues about the longer term price momentum for Gold.
The 4 hour medium term chart is still trading in an uptrend. As long as the price action can hold above the 1174.50 level being the last isolated 4 hour swing low the bullish scenario remains intact.
The intraday technical outlook
On a 1 hour basis the breach of the 1192.50 level has changed the trend for XAUUSD technically from up to down.
The current downside targets are 1186.50 and 1181.00.
Alternatively a test and close above the 1203.00 level being the prior isolated 1 hour swing high would turn the trend back to up.
We have a further upside target at the 1208.00 level
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2711ldnCLF5H1.png)
The macro technical view
The OPEC is finally here. As mentioned in my introduction the Oil news is not that straight forward with geopolitical issues dominating and the impact of USA domestic production causing a glut in the market.
I know it is rather difficult but let’s discount the news as it is very hard to trade off secret meetings and handshakes behind closed doors and just stick to technical’s.
If you pick any time frame from the 4 hour up to the monthly all you see is a strong down trend.
It is fairly obvious that at the present moment that trying to pick a medium to long term bullish argument is a very hard task.
The longer term level I am looking at is the 67.00 level which is the 2010 low. This being potentially a longer term price target and place where possibility of support coming into the market.
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart continues to be very bearish with 1 hour line of control at 74.45and downside targets at the 71.50 and 69.50 levels.
Alternatively upside resistance can be found at the 73.3 and 73.60 levels.
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ACFX technical report – USDCAD 28.11.2014
What awaits USDCAD after the release of the GDP report?
At 1.30pm today we get the latest release from Statistics Canada of the month on month GDP report.
This report measures the change in the inflation adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the country.
With Canada being a major hydrocarbon producer and with OPEC deciding not to cut production in will be interesting to see how this will affect the GDP numbers.
The prior report can in at -0.1% with the consensus forecast expected to coming in at 0.4%.
With the USDCAD trading in a strong up trend lower than expected numbers will only fuel the continued depreciation of the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar.
The technical review
USDCAD is trading in a daily uptrend. This can be clearly identified by a series of higher high and higher low swings.
The price action has recently experienced a controlled correction that has actually turned the moving averages negative.
However this price action did not come anyway near to penetrating the 1.1120 level.
This level is the areas of the last isolated daily swing low of the October 29.
The move down and subsequent bounce came off an area of Fibonacci support.
As the trend is up my initial long target is 1.1467 being the area of the November 5 swing high.
The next target point for USDCAD is 1.1725 being the weekly high of July 5.
A failure of USDCAD to sustain its upward momentum could be followed by a penetration of the 1.1190 level being the November 21 swing low would technically change the trend from up to down.
This would open up the possibility of a move down to the 1.0900 being the September 19 swing low
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2811USDCAD_Daily.png)
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ACFX London opening technical report – 28.11.2014
What news will drive the markets today
The drop in the value of Oil hits commodity based currencies
OPEC’s expected decision not to introduce quotas and cut oil production hit commodity based currencies such as the Norwegian Crown and the Canadian Dollar hard.
With Light Sweet Crude overnight trading at $67.66 and Brent at $71.50 traders focused on shorting national currencies where governments rely on revenues from Oil to fund their budgets.
The Norwegian Crown has hit a five year low against the Dollar with USDNOK is this morning trading at 6.9490.
The Loonie, (USDCAD) this morning is testing its New York session highs and is currently trading at 1.1350 being a two week high for this currency pairing.
Disappointing CPI numbers which are being impacted by the fall in oil prices has market sentiment expecting a need for a greater expansion of QE in Japan.
USDJPY is currently trading at 118.20 being a 112 pip increase off yesterday’s lows. The move higher for this currency pair would seem to indicate that USDJPY is once again attempting to revert to an intraday uptrend.
The deflationary problems that are hitting Japan are also effecting the ECB”s ability to generate some growth into the stagnant Eurozone economies.
There are now fears that scheduled inflation data releases today (Friday) for Germany and Spain could miss targets.
This leads us nicely to today’s data releases.
At 10:00am we have the Eurozone year on year CPI Flash Estimate. The prior was 0.4% and the ECB has its fingers crossed that the actual beats the 0.3% forecast.
Across the Atlantic in Canada, Statistics Canada releases latest month on month GDP numbers. With all the pressure on the Canadian Dollar a beat of the -0.1% prior and 0.4% forecast would give the Canadian Central Bank some relief.
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2811ldnEURUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
The bullish double bottom scenario could maybe put to the test today if we have disappointing CPI numbers.
Combined with the OPEC decision which is also deflationary are probably the main reasons why we had negative trading yesterday.
From a weekly perspective if we can get a good up close today the overall picture of a bottom forming is reinforced.
However as every major pull back on the 4 hour and daily charts has resulted in an opportunity to short the Euro it would not be a surprise if we got more of the same.
Popping up to the monthly chart we do have monthly support coming in at around the 1.2200 level. This comes off the back of a monthly trend line.
This level now becomes an obvious target for the shorts and a magnate for EURUSD to drop down to.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday this morning we had our first unsuccessful test of the 1.2445 level. This price point is the current line of control and higher low swing point. A 1 hour close beneath this level would confirm that the trend has changed from up to down.
However as long as we can stay above the 1.2445 level the 1 hour trend points upwards with the current price target being 1.2500 and 1.2570.
Alternatively a breach of the 1.2445 level could see EURUSD test the 1.2400 and then the 1.2360 levels.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2811ldnGBPUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
At one point yesterday GBPUSD managed to trade at the 1.5825 level in what has turned out to be a decent rally for the pound.
Having broken above its 4 hour triangle I am now monitoring the possibility that GBPUSD can put in a higher low or at least a double bottom above the 1.5600 level.
In terms of trying to assess a much bigger picture one really needs to take a look at the monthly chart. The monthly chart has actually put in a higher high and is now trading at the 61.8% Fibonacci support level.
We have also had no less than 5 months of lower closes. Therefore the question now becomes is this drop over done?
Therefore for all the negative sentiment that surrounds the Pound right now, the formation of higher highs on the 4 hour and daily charts would be the first sign that this large macro long play is about to begin.
These kinds of trades need big stops and big pockets to finance them but a return to a macro uptrend has a target price of 1.7050. This was top of the bottom of the 2005 monthly down swing and top of the last isolated monthly high of July of this year.
Back to reality and the current daily momentum is down. If nothing changes then the current daily targets of
1.5630 and 1.5590 levels which coincide with priors 4 hour swing low points are still valid.
The intraday technical outlook
The pound today is trading lower and as I speak is testing the 1.5715 support level.
A continuation of the move down that successfully breaches the 1.5675 level would change the trend from up to down.
The current upside targets are 1.5740 and 1.5785.
Alternative downside targets are 1.5675 and 1.5645.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2811ldnUSDJPY_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday USDJY continued to trade lower however following the disappointing inflation data and concerns that Japan has to implement even more stimulus has this morning pushed USDJPY higher.
On the weekly chart I am interested to see if USDJPY can trade above the 118.98 level being last week’s high.
Down to the 4 hour chart it would appear that the bullish ABC scenario is now in play.
This puts into focus a retest of this year’s high being the 119.00 level.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday USDJPY has this morning tested and been repelled by the 118.30 level which is my line of control.
As long USDJPY can continue to trade under this level the 1 hour bias is down.
The downside targets are 117.65 and then 117.35.
Alternatively a break above the 118.30 level could see USDJPY test the 118.60 and 119.00 levels.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2811ldnUSDCHF_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday’s higher close has had the effect of creating triangle consolidation pattern around the price action on the 4 hour and daily charts.
The question does continue to be is USDCHF now toppish however with the rejection of lower prices yesterday and this morning bullish open the focus does somewhat return to upside.
With the weekly time frame looking bullish trying to find areas of resistance and potential price targets forces me to take a look at the weekly and monthly time frames.
The 0.9915 and 0.9970 levels do offer obvious price points which are created by weekly and monthly swing lows and highs.
Alternatively a downside triangle break has an initial target at the 0.9530 level.
A breach and daily close under this level would change the daily trend from up to down.
The intraday technical outlook
This morning we have had a 1 hour close above the 0.9665 level which is the intraday line of control.
Technically this changes the intraday trend from down to up.
However not one to jump the gun I want to see how USDCHF now pulls back.
What is important is if USDCHF can form a higher low. This will then become a base that propels USDCHF and into a new intraday uptrend.
The upside targets are 0.9700 and then 0.9730.
Alternative downside targets are 0.9630 and 0.9605.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2811ldnAUDUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
There is a saying that one swallow does not make a summer. This can be applied to the Aussie Dollar with one piece of good data not being enough to keep the AUDUSD trading higher.
The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.
The intraday technical outlook
The 1 hour chart continues to point up but only just.
AUDUSD is now trading very near to the 0.8480 level which is the intraday line of control.
A breach and close of this level would turn the intraday trend from up to down.
The current upside targets are 0.8535 and 0.8635.
Alternatively a test of the 0.8480 support level could see AUDUSD test the 0.8325 and 0.8075 levels.
These levels are a bit away from the current price action. The reason for this is that there are no recent 1 hour swing points to target.
The only points I can really target are off the weekly time frame. However one could also use significant numbers such as 00 and 50 levels and pivot points.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2811ldnXAUUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
I mentioned in my previous posts that Gold had entered into area of Fibonacci resistance.
It would now appear that this has been targeted by some traders who are now attempting to push XAUUSD back into a daily down trend.
A key level to watch today is the 1175.00 level which coincides with an area just beneath last week’s low.
The 4 hour medium term chart is still trading in an uptrend. As long as the price action can hold above the 1174.50 level being the last isolated 4 hour swing low the bullish scenario remains intact.
The intraday technical outlook
On a 1 hour basis the breach of the 1192.50 level has changed the trend for XAUUSD technically from up to down.
The current downside targets are 1181.00 and 1174.50.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 1186.50 and 1192.50.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/27.06/2811ldnCLF5H1.png)
The macro technical view
What a surprise. OPEC did not cut production and the net effect was both Light Sweet Crude and Brent dropping like a stone.
In terms of long term technical’s nothing has really changed from yesterday with my 67.00 target for Light Sweet Crude now in touching distance.
There are no real arguments for the long side just yet with the momentum from 4 hour and up being so bear ugly.
Let’s see if we get any signs of life at the 67.00 2010 low level.
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday on an intraday basis the 1 hour chart continues to be very bearish with 1 hour line of control at 74.45.
The 71.50 and 69.50 downside targets have been hit. All eyes are now on the 67.00 level
Alternatively if bulls are brave enough to show their face we may get a bounce back to 69.50.
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ACFX London opening technical report – 03.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0312ldnEURUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday EURUSD resumed is downward slide as it took out intraday support levels of 1.2445, 1.2420 and 1.2400.
We will soon have our answer to the possible double bottom scenario with a breach of the 1.2360 level confirming that the down trend in higher time frames is intact.
As mentioned in prior posts we do have monthly support coming in at around the 1.2200 level. This comes off the back of a monthly trend line.
This level now becomes an obvious target for the shorts and a magnate for EURUSD to drop down to.
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s breach of the 1.2420 level changed the 1 hour trend back to down with the line of control now at the 1.2505 level.
The downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2240.
Alternatively upside targets for today are at the 1.2400and 1.2420 levels.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0312ldnGBPUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday GBPUSD traded lower as it broke down through 1.5715 and 1.5675 supports levels.
Cable is now currently trading around the 1.5645 support level.
The possible double bottom scenario is still on play on both the 4 hour and daily charts.
However as mentioned yesterday I still want to see the formation of a higher low and even better a higher high on the 4 hour chart.
This would give me more confidence that a bottom has formed.
Looking for a bottoming formation when the momentum being so bearish might be foolhardy however the markets do and will change their mood.
However in prior posts I wrote that the weekly chart does however not reinforce the negative picture that is found on the smaller time frames with the price action having corrected to an area of possible Fibonacci support following its initial bullish impulse move higher.
This view continues to be confirmed by the monthly chart. The monthly chart has actually put in a higher high.
As mentioned in my prior posts we have also had no less than 5 months of lower closes. Therefore the question now becomes is this drop over done?
With this in mind if GBPUSD can hold above the 1.5600 level we may just have the first signs that this longer term bullish play is about to unfold.
The upside target for GBPUSD being 1.7050. This was top of the bottom of the 2005 monthly down swing and top of the last isolated monthly high of July of this year.
A failure however to stay above the 1.5600 level could however see GBPUSD test the 1.5420 support level.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5765 level.
The intraday downside targets are at the 1.5625 and 1.5585 levels.
Alternative a upside resistance comes in at 1.5675 and 1.5715.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0312ldnUSDJPY_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday USDJPY broke above the 119.00 level. With this level broken the 120.00 level comes into focus.
All times frames from 4 hour and above are very bullish with the only real concern being the amount of green candles in succession that are shown on the weekly chart.
On the premise that what goes up must come down so at some point we could get a good correction.
The monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 117.85 level.
Upside areas of interest being the 119.50 and 119.75 levels.
Alternatively down side levels are 119.00 and 118.60.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0312ldnUSDCHF_H1.png)
The macro technical view
USDCHF is this morning trading testing the 0.9730 high. With USDJPY having broken above its 119.00 level there is a possibility that USDCHF follows suit.
The 4 hour chart has now committed to the long side by painting a higher low and higher high swing and it looks like the daily time frame will soon joint this club.
A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.
The intraday technical outlook
The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9615.
The current upside targets are 0.9745 and 0.9800.
Alternative downside targets are 0.9700 and 0.9665.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0312ldnAUDUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
As mentioned in my introduction the latest GDP numbers have added to the gloom surrounding the Australian Dollar.
AUDUSD is currently trading at the 0.8400 level having this morning breached the 0.8415 support level.
Today’s move now means that the 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.
The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.
In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.
Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require so basing movement to happen on lower time frames. This is something I have yet to notice.
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is trading in a intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8470.
This morning’s AUDUSD is testing the 0.8400 support level.
The current downside targets are 0.8400 and 0.8350.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8415 and 0.8470.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0312ldnXAUUSD_H4.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday Gold traded down to the 1192.50 support level.
At these levels buyers have coming into the market to push XAUUSD higher.
The 4 hour chart is now trading in an uptrend and is attempting to put in a higher low swing.
The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high on the very of being painted.
I am now monitoring this week’s close to see if Gold can put in place a weekly double bottom.
On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the 1 hour is up with the line of control at 1192.50 level.
Current upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1221.15
Alternatively downside targets are 1192.50 and 1189.30.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0312ldnCLF5H1.png)
The macro technical view
Oil continues to trade under the 69.60 resistance level.
However the pullback from the test of this level was not as aggressive as expected with the price action now finding support at 67.00.
All higher frames from 4 hours and up are bearish.
As mentioned in prior posts it is now a case of trying to identify key levels where the price action could bounce off.
Focus now falls on the 63.65 level which was the last support level.
If the price action can form a higher low above this level preferably on the 4 hour chart there is the possibility that we get a much stronger correction which takes Oil up to the 73.60 level
However a failure to hold above the 63.65 levels could see Oil challenge the 58.75 support level.
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 69.60 level.
A break above the 69.60 would technically change the 1 hour trend to up.
Current support is at the 67.00 level.
Alternatively successful test of the 69.60 level opens up the possibility of a move up to the 73.60 level.
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ACFX London opening technical report – 05.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0512ldnEURUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday Super Mario decided to sit on his hands with respect to QE and this sent EURUSD higher.
This afternoon however we have the NFP being released.
A strong number will most likely push EURUSD down in the direction of the significant monthly trend line support that comes in at around the 1.2200 level.
In terms of other times frames the 4 hour, daily and weekly charts even after yesterdays minor rally are still trading in a technical down trend.
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s breach of the 1.2325 level changed the 1 hour trend back to up with the line of control now at the 1.2275 level.
The upside targets for today are at the 1.2400 and 1.2445 levels.
Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2325
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0512ldnGBPUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday was an indifferent day for Cable as GBPUSD traded around its open and then closed slightly lower.
On the 4 hour and daily charts we are seeing a great deal of consolidation as the price action holds above the 1.5585 low.
The possible double bottom scenario is still on play on both the 4 hour and daily charts.
However as mentioned in prior posts I still want to see the formation of a higher low and even better a higher high on the 4 hour chart.
This would give me more confidence that a bottom has formed.
Looking for a bottoming formation when the momentum being so bearish might be foolhardy however the markets do and will change their mood.
However in prior posts I wrote that the weekly chart does however not reinforce the negative picture that is found on the smaller time frames with the price action having corrected to an area of possible Fibonacci support following its initial bullish impulse move higher.
This view continues to be confirmed by the monthly chart. The monthly chart has actually put in a higher high.
As mentioned in my prior posts we have also had no less than 5 months of lower closes. Therefore the question now becomes is this drop over done?
With this in mind if GBPUSD can hold above the 1.5600 level we may just have the first signs that this longer term bullish play is about to unfold.
The upside target for GBPUSD being 1.7050. This was top of the bottom of the 2005 monthly down swing and top of the last isolated monthly high of July of this year.
A failure however to stay above the 1.5600 level could however see GBPUSD test the 1.5420 support level.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5725 level.
The intraday support is at 1.5625 and 1.5585 levels.
Alternative upside resistance comes in at 1.5645 and 1.5675.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0512ldnUSDJPY_H1a.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday we got the push I was watching for above the 120.00 level.
However traders did push USDJPY close to the 119.30 support level in what was a bout of corrective profit taking however during the Tokyo session USDJPY has resumed its upward course once more.
All times frames from 4 hour and above are very bullish with the only real concern being the amount of green candles in succession that are shown on the weekly chart.
On the premise that what goes up must come down so at some point we could get a good correction.
For the time however with the upside momentum being so strong it is probably unwise to be brave enough to get in front of what has become a USDJPY juggernaut.
The monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 119.30 level.
Upside areas of interest being the 120.50 and 120.75 levels.
Alternatively down side levels are 119.30 and 119.00.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0512ldnUSDCHF_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday USDCHF experienced a strong pull back as it broke down through the 0.9730 and 0.9630 levels.
Support finally came in at the 0.9650 level.
Both the 4 hour and daily charts has now committed to the long side by painting a higher high swings.
The weekly time frame will also turned positive if we get a move above the 0.9845 level.
A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.
The intraday technical outlook
The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9650.
The current upside targets are 0.9730 and 0.9800.
Alternative downside targets are 0.9690 and 0.9650.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0512ldnAUDUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
With a break beneath the 0.8400 level becoming a reality has there ever been a case of ground hog day being more applicable to a currency pair then AUDUSD.
All chart time frames from 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.
The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.
In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.
Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require some basing movement to happen on lower time frames. This is something I have yet to notice.
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8415.
The current downside targets are 0.8350 and 0.8315.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8400 and 0.8445.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0512ldnXAUUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Gold has traded in a relatively small range over the past two business days with the price action confined within the 1203.00 and 1215.00 levels.
The 4 hour chart is now trading in an uptrend and is attempting to put in a higher low swing.
The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high on the very of being painted.
I am now monitoring this week’s close to see if Gold can put in place a weekly double bottom.
On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the 1 hour is up with the line of control at 1192.50 levels.
Current upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1215.00
Alternatively support comes in at 1203.00 and 1192.50
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0512ldnCLF5H1.png)
The macro technical view
As mentioned in yesterday’s post the 68.00 area has now become a significant area of intraday resistance with the 68.20 level becoming the line in the sand.
The bulls really need to get a close above this level if the upside momentum is to be maintained.
All higher frames from 4 hours and up are bearish however the 4 hour time frame is attempting to paint a bullish higher low.
For the shorts a confirmation of the longer term downward momentum needs a significant breach of the 63.65 level.
As long as the price action can hold above this level there is a possibility that a base can be built base from where a corrective rally can unfold.
However a failure to hold above the 63.65 levels could see Oil challenge the 58.75 support level.
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 68.20 level.
A break above the 69.60 would technically change the 1 hour trend to up.
Current support is at the 66.65 level.
Alternatively successful test of the 8.20 level opens up the possibility of a move up to the 69.60 level.
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ACFX daily technical report – London Open 09.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/912ldnEURUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
EURUSD traded higher in what was a technical correction.
As posted in prior articles further downside momentum could push EURUSD in the direction of the significant monthly trend line support that comes in at around the 1.2200 level.
In terms of other times frames the 4 hour, daily and weekly charts even after yesterdays minor rally are still trading in a technical down trend.
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control way up at the 1.2455 level.
Current downside support comes in at 1.2325 and 1.2275.
Alternatively upside resistance can be found at 1.2360 and 1.2400.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/912ldnGBPUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher. As with the EURUSD the move had more to do with a technical correction rather than any real news driven event.
The 4 hour and daily chart are now down trending with Friday’s price action now opening up the possibility of a GBPUSD now testing the monthly support trend line.
This support area comes in around 1.5200 to 1.5250.
The weekly and monthly time frames continue to point upwards therefore the 1.5200/50 area becomes a significant line in the sand.
A breach of this area could set the pound up for a multi month down trend.
However a bounce off major support opens up the possibility for a move to the 1.7050 level.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5695 level.
The intraday support is at 1.5645 and 1.5625 levels.
Alternative upside resistance comes in at 1.5675 and 1.5695.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/0512ldnUSDJPY_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Following the unsuccessful attempt at the 122.00 level USDJPY has experienced a strong downside correction.
I mentioned in my prior posts that this up move did look a little over bought, especially when one looked at the amount of green bullish candles on the weekly chart.
A correction was therefore on the cards.
The question is are we just seeing a 1 or 2 candle daily correction that will allow buyers to jump onto the long side at better values or will this correction be more cyclical and last week’s rather than days.
It is rather too early to tell however with all times frames from 4 hour and above being bullish the prudent choice would be to wait for a technical change of trend before deciding to commit to the short side of the trade.
In terms of the monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 119.30 level.
Upside areas of interest being the 120.25 and 121.00 levels.
Alternatively down side levels are 119.30 and 118.60.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/912ldnUSDCHF_H1.png)
The macro technical view
After testing the 0.9800 area USDCHF has experienced a decent pull back.
This correction is a technical pull back with all time frames from 1 hour to the daily pointing up.
The weekly time frame will also turn positive if we get a move above the 0.9845 level.
A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.
The intraday technical outlook
The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9650.
The current upside resistance is at the 0.9800 and 0.9845 levels.
Alternative downside targets are 0.9730 and 0.9690 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/912ldnAUDUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
Unlike the other majors AUDUSD has not had any type of a pullback.
The overnight NAB survey has only reinforced the negativity surrounding the Aussie Dollar.
All chart time frames from 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.
The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.
In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.
Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require so basing movement to happen on lower time frames.
This is something I have yet to notice.
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8315.
This morning’s AUDUSD is testing the 0.8250 support level.
The current downside targets are 0.8250 and 0.8200.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8260 and 0.8315.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/912ldnXAUUSD_H1.png)
The macro technical view
After experiencing a moderate pull back Gold is once again trading higher.
Gold continues to trade in a 4 hour uptrend as the price action attempts to paint a higher low swing.
The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high being painted.
Last week XAUSD closed higher and actually put in a higher low.
This price could possibly be the precursor of a double bottom forming on the weekly chart.
On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the 1 hour trend is down with the line of control at 1214.95 levels.
Current support comes in at 1203.00 and 1192.50.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1214.95.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/images/technical-analysis/30.06/912CLF5H1.png)
The macro technical view
Oil continues to slide with the price action yesterday penetrating the 63.65 support level.
This level was identified in prior posts as the target the shorts where gunning for.
With the 63.65 now broken the 58.75 target now comes into play.
The recent price action has not put all time frames from 4 hour and above into negative territory.
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 66.65 level.
Current support comes in at 60.00 and 58.75.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 63.65 and 66.85.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 12.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/yocm6vvap/eurusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD traded lower at it moved into the area of the last isolated low at the 1.2360 area.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control way up at the 1.2360 level.
Current upside resistance can be found at 1.2400 and 1.2450.
Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2330.
The macro technical view
The move higher has turned the 4 hour trend positive following the breach of the 1.2450 resistance level
The daily trend continues to be negative today’s as the price action trades under the 1.2600 daily resistance levels.
The move under the 1.2750 has turned the weekly trend to down with support coming in around 1.2250.
The monthly frame is interesting.
Although the current swing count is negative the monthly price action is trading within a converging triangle with support coming in off the 1.2200 to 1.2250 level which corresponds to trend line support
GBPUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/ev0ie6hwx/gbpusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD traded down to the area of its prior intraday swing low at the 1.5650 level.
However it’s stay in these regions was brief as it traded higher throughout the rest of the London and New sessions.
Intraday the pound is trading in an uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5650 level.
The intraday upside resistance comes in at 1.5725 and 1.5750.
Alternative support is at 1.5645 and 1.5625 levels.
The macro technical view
The breach of the 1.5725 technically changed the 4 hour trend to up.
However there is some concern that the candle could not paint a 4 hour close above the 1.5725 level.
The daily chart is trading in a technical down trend with resistance coming in at 1.5825.
The weekly chart saw GBPUSD breach the 1.6390 level and a multi month down trend line.
This move has technically changed the weekly trend to positive.
The weekly and monthly time frames continue to point upwards therefore the 1.5200/50 area becomes a significant line in the sand.
The 1.5200/50 area is a zone of support that is offered by a multi month trend line.
A breach of this area could set the pound up for a multi month down trend.
However a bounce off major support opens up the possibility for a move to the 1.7050 level.
USDJPY
(http://s30.postimg.org/xq0uic7ch/usdjpy.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday the area of the 119.55 being intraday resistance held back the rise of USDJPY.
However with Sunday’s election looming large on the horizon downward traders will be anticipating potential further Yen weakening following a possible Abe election victory.
Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.55 level.
Downside support is at 118.25 and 117.90.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 118.95 and 119.30.
The macro technical view
Longer term position traders will once again be eyeing a potential retest of the 122.00 level on Monday if Abe as is expected wins Sunday’s election.
The 4 hour time frame has been in an uptrend since the breach of the 118.95 resistance level.
The daily time has been bullish for some time and the correction that it recently experienced is due to recent news events but also to a large part of traders simply realizing profits.
Much the same for the weekly chart however we do have weekly support at the 115.70 level.
The weekly chart gives us the interesting possibility of a lower close for the first time since October 5,
The 117.85 level will be a key level to watch today being last weeks low.
The monthly chart has a price target of 124.15.
After such weakness in the Yen and with the prospect of Fed tightening and the Bank of Japan implementing massive stimulus the 124.15 level is looking a probable prospect.
USDCHF
(http://s30.postimg.org/mwoqw30oh/usdchf.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF had a good run up after it failed to test the 0.9600 level
The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is down with the line of control at 0.9725.
The downside support is at 0.9650 and 0.9610 levels.
Alternative current upside resistance is at the 0.9690 and 0.9725 levels.
The macro technical view
The highlight of the price action on the 4 hour chart with the market rejecting repeated attempts to sustain a move under the 0.9650 level.
The daily chart does look like a staircase with price action having experience what looks like a typical downside controlled correction.
The upside target of 0.9840 being weekly resistance is still in play.
The weekly time frame will also turn positive if we get a move above the 0.9840 level.
A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend
AUDUSD
(http://s30.postimg.org/x1rzze8mp/audusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday AUDUSD once again reverted to form as it broke beneath the 0.8280 and 0.8265 support levels.
However the price action was held at the 0.8220 support level being the area of the prior isolated low.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8375.
The current downside support is at the 0.8265 and 0.8220.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8280 and 0.8315.
The macro technical view
All chart time frames from 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.
The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.
In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.
Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require so basing movement to happen on lower time frames.
This is something I have yet to notice.
GOLD
(http://s30.postimg.org/6e5lh02lt/gold.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following Gold’s breach of the 1215.00 resistance level the price action has been trending up.
However we have now had the painting of a lower high swing pivot at the 1232.00 level.
Gold needs to trade above this level for confirmation that the uptrend is in good health,
On an intraday basis the 1 hour trend is uptrend with the line of control at 1215.00 levels.
Current upside resistance comes in at 1225.60 and 1232.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1221.00.00 and 1215.00.
The macro technical view
Gold continues to trade in a 4 hour uptrend as the price action attempts to paint a higher low swing.
The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high being painted.
Last week XAUSD closed higher and actually put in a higher low.
This price could possibly be the precursor of a double bottom forming on the weekly chart.
On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.
OIL
(http://s30.postimg.org/aw3avct9t/oil.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to slide with the price action yesterday penetrating the 60.45 support level.
The decline was somewhat held at the 59.25 level.
Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 61.45 level.
Current support comes in at 59.25 and 56.50.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 64.45 and 61.65.
The macro technical view
With all time frames from 4 hour and above point down the next the 59.25 level becomes today’s battleground.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 15.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://s8.postimg.org/dgp4e252t/eurusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has over the past three sessions traded within a 1.2370 to 1.2495 range.
A significant brake of this range will potentially dictate the medium term trading direction.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.2370 level.
Current upside resistance can be found at 1.2495 and 1.2530.
Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2450 and 1.2420
GBPUSD
(http://s8.postimg.org/8ofb2maet/gbpusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has been trading within a 1.5650 to 1.5750 trading range over the past three sessions.
A significant brake of this range will potentially dictate the medium term trading direction.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5650 level.
The intraday upside resistance comes in at 1.5750 and 1.5790.
Alternative support is at 1.5725 and 1.5650 levels.
USDJPY
(http://s8.postimg.org/f9wmg4fn9/usdjpy.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is trading within a 118.00 to 119.00 trading range.
A significant brake of this range will potentially dictate the medium term trading direction.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 119.05 level
Downside support is at 118.25 and 117.50.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 119.05 and 119.55.
USDCHF
(http://s8.postimg.org/g9iby35f9/usdchf.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Overnight USDCHF tested the 0.9625 support level.
A significant breach of this level would confirm that the intraday downtrend is intact.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 0.9710 level
The downside support is at 0.9625 and 0.9610 levels.
Alternative current upside resistance is at the 0.9690 and 0.9710 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://s8.postimg.org/m9631qq7p/audusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Overnight AUDUSD tested but could not sustain a move under the 0.8200 support level.
A significant breach of this level would confirm that the intraday downtrend is intact.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8300 level.
The current downside support is at the 0.8200 and 0.8070.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8300 and 0.8350.
GOLD
(http://s8.postimg.org/6xwa14svp/gold.png)
The intraday technical outlook
XAUUSD this morning tested and bounced off the 1215.00 support level.
A significant breech of this level would change the 1 hour from up to down.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday uptrend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.
Current upside resistance comes in at 1221.00 and 1225.60.
Alternatively support comes in at 1215.00.00 and 1204.75.
OIL
(http://s8.postimg.org/x7hcjxet1/oil.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil overnight continued to trade lower.
However the downward slide was held at the 56.50 support level.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 59.25 level.
Current support comes in at 56.50 and 53.00.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 59.25 and 60.45.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 16.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://s24.postimg.org/56bus18vp/eurusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD traded in a fairly narrow range as the price action stayed within the range of the December 11 candle.
Currently the price action has painted a lower high at the 1.2485 level.
Although I have the line of control at the 1.2370 level a breach and close beneath the the 1.2420 level being the prior swing low would be sufficient to change the trend from up to down.
The price action this morning is trading around the 1.2450 level.
A close above or below this level could potentially indicate the direction of today’s trading.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.2370 level.
Current upside resistance can be found at 1.2495 and 1.2530.
Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2420 and 1.2400.
GBPUSD
(http://s24.postimg.org/dd3ujlyyd/gbpusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD yesterday experienced significant bearish price action that saw it break beneath the 1.5695 support level and trade through the 1.5650 level,
However the decline was stopped around the 1.5625 support area.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5750 level.
The support is at 1.5660 and 1.5625 levels.
Alternative intraday upside resistance comes in at 1.5725 and 1.5750.
USDJPY
(http://s24.postimg.org/rni08u4ol/usdjpy.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDJPY broke under the 117.50 support level.
The next level of support comes in at the 115.70 area which was a prior weekly pivot.
As this level is far away from the current price action the next possible levels of support are the round trading numbers starting at 117.00.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.05 level
Downside support is at 117.00 and 116.50.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.50 and 118.25.
USDCHF
(http://s10.postimg.org/n9bd2v7vd/usdchf.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF experienced choppy price action that saw it trade within the 0.9625 to 0.9675 range.
This morning USDCHF open negatively as the price action trades under the 0.9650 support level.
A breach of the 0.9625 is required so as to confirm that the bearish intraday outlook.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 0.9675 level
The downside support is at 0.9625 and 0.9610 levels.
Alternative current upside resistance is at the 0.9650 and 0.9675 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://s10.postimg.org/5e5x85mzd/audusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
During yesterday and this morning AUDUSD has made 3 attempts to penetrate through the 0.8200 level.
This level is significant as it is both a round number and a level of prior monthly support/resistance.
This morning AUDUSD has open positively as the price action trades above the 0.8220 support level.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8265 level.
The current downside support is at the 0.8220 and 0.8200.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8265 and 0.8285.
GOLD
(http://s10.postimg.org/i9dwux28p/gold.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The recent bullish feel surrounding XAUUSD has gone over the past two business days as Gold emphatically broke the the 1215.00 support level.
Yesterday’s slide however was stopped at the 1191.65 support level.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1232.00 level.
Current support comes in at 1191.65 and 1185.25.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 1204.75 and 1215.00
OIL
(http://s10.postimg.org/kt9jp0psp/oil.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil on Monday initially bounced off the 56.50 support level.
However traders where unable to push crude up to the 59.25 resistance level.
In afternoon trading Oil reverted to its downward direction as the market push oil through the 56.50 support level.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour intraday downtrend with the line of control at the 56.50 level.
Current support comes in at 53.00 and 50.35.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 56.50 and 59.25.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 17.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/h42ehscal/eruusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With Fed day finally upon us watch out for big moves today for the euro and all major currency pairs, commodities and metals.
Yesterday EURUSD continued with its recent strong rally.
EURUSD did break above the 1.2500 level and at one point seemed that it would test the 1.2570 resistance level.
However in the afternoon traded EURUSD traded off its highs as it moved back down to the 1.2500 support area.
This morning EURUSD is making an attempt to trade beneath its down channel.
This is a very early sign of weakness in EURUSD.
A confirmation a more bearish sentiment is being felt by the market would see EURUSD make a weak pull back back into its up channel before once again rolling over.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.2420 level.
Current upside resistance can be found at 1.2500 and 1.2575.
Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2450 and 1.2420.
GBPUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/uifhdtiyl/gbpusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday was a wild ride for cable.
Initially it attempted to test the 1.5600 support level before turning in a dime and breaking higher.
The rally was so dramatic the we had an actual close above the 1.5750 level.
This has necessitated a trend change from down to up.
In the afternoon trade we had very choppy action at the highs.
This morning GBPUSD is trading lower in quiet action as the market awaits the latest MPC rate vote.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5600 level.
Upside resistance comes in at 1.5750 and 1.5790.
Alternative intraday Support can be found at 1.5725 and 1.5660 levels.
USDJPY
(http://s4.postimg.org/kg0pb341p/usdjpy.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The 115.70 level yesterday offered a good area of support.
We did get an initial test of the 117.50 level.
This morning it would appear that this level and the top of the down channel are about to be tested once more.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.05 level
Downside support is at 115.70 and 113.85.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.50 and 118.25.
USDCHF
(http://s4.postimg.org/yjwkjhb99/usdchf.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDCHF is retesting the 0.9625 level.
This was a level USDCHF yesteday failed to trade above.
The price action is also trading above its down channel.
I am monitoring the price action for a potential pull back into this channel.
A weak pullback would signal that market sentiment is changing to a more bullish outlook.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.9675 level
The downside support is at 0.9610 and 0.9550 levels.
Alternative current upside resistance is at the 0.9625 and 0.9650 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://s4.postimg.org/h7w7y1hrx/audusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday for the most part AUDUSD had a good day as the price action bounced off the 0.8200 level.
We did get a retest of the 0.8265 resistance level however the price action was not able to sustain a close above this level.
In early morning trading AUDUSD has broken lower as it slashed through yesterday support.
The next support level is the 0.8070 level being a prior weekly swing pivot.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8265 level.
The current downside support is at the 0.8100 and 0.8070.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8200 and 0.8265.
GOLD
(http://s4.postimg.org/n3q5lfx31/gold.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday had a wild day of trading which saw the price action test both the 1221.00 resistance and 1191.65 support level.
This morning XAUUSD is trading at the lows of yesterdays range and between the 1191.65 and 1204.85 levels.
We do have a down channel developing.
I will be monitoring the price action with a view on how Gold reacts to a potential move up to the top of its channel.
However a break beneath the 1191.65 would confirm that the down move will potentially continue.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level.
Current support comes in at 1191.65 and 1186.25.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 1204.85 and 1215.00
OIL
(http://s4.postimg.org/um9au2ofx/oil.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday Oil managed to avoid hitting the 53.00 support level.
This will no doubt come as a bit of a relief to oil producers.
In afternoon trading Oil staged a mini US$3.00 rally which saw it test the 56.50 level.
This morning Oil is trading off the previous days highs at the 54.75 level.
I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 53.00 level or a retest of the 56.50 level.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 59.25 level.
Current support comes in at 53.00 and 50.35.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 56.50 and 59.25.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 18.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://s22.postimg.org/vapcrsukh/eurusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday evening the Euro extended its losses after the Fed announcement on interest rates.
Pressure on EURUSD continues this morning as the US Dollar continues to strengthen.
EURUSD made feeble attempts yesterday to trade back into its up channel and the breach of the 1.2420 level completed the bearish story by turning the intraday trend from up to down.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.2575 level.
Support comes in at 1.2280 and 1.2245.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.2330 and 1.2360.
GBPUSD
(http://s22.postimg.org/ocl8luwg1/gbpusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD collapsed from its up channel and traded down to the 1.5540 support area.
During the Asia trade GBPUSD did manage to muster a minor rally up to the 1.5590 level but in the past two hours is coming under pressure.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5790 level.
Support can be found at 1.5540 and 1.5500 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5600 and 1.5625.
USDJPY
(http://s22.postimg.org/6nthu8kox/usdjpy.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDJPY continue to trade higher following the break of its down channel.
Overnight we had a test of the 119.05 level.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential retest of this level.
A 1 hour close above this level will technically change the trend from down to up.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.05 level
Support is at 118.25 and 117.50.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 119.05 and 119.55.
USDCHF
(http://s22.postimg.org/a2boadg3l/usdchf.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s move higher from its down channel was accelerated following the FOMC news.
This morning USDCHF has continued to rise as it breaks through the 0.9795 and 0.9820 resistance levels.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9555 level
Support is at 0.9820 and 0.9795 levels.
Alternative resistance is at the 0.9840 and 0.9900 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://s22.postimg.org/6g5uxq9q9/audusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday AUDUSD also like other currencies had a wild ride.
The price action did actual try to trade above its down channel but was unable to sustain the move higher.
What followed was an aggressive spike down that took out the days low of 0.8138.
This morning AUDUSD is experiencing a minor rally as the price action would appear that it wants to test the top of its down channel.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8265 level.
Support is at the 0.8100 and 0.8070.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8200 and 0.8265.
GOLD
(http://s22.postimg.org/a3lm3shxd/gold.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday did spike lower on the Fed news however the move lower was held at the 1186.25 level.
The price action over the last 3 days of trading has created 3 lower low swings within a relatively tight range which are closely spaced together.
With the price action now hovering under the 1203.00 resistance level I am interested to see if XAUUSD can breach this level and make an attempt to test the top of its down channel.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1203.00 level.
Current support comes in at 1191.65 and 1186.25.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 1203.00and 1215.00
OIL
(http://s22.postimg.org/5izfouy81/oil.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday crude had a strong rally following the breech of its down channel.
The move higher took out the 56.50 level which necessitated a change of trend from down to up.
At one point it appeared that Oil would even attempt to make a test of the 59.25 resistance level.
However into the news Oil like most other instruments weakened against the US Dollar.
The move lower was however held at the 56.50 support level.
This level becomes today’s battle ground with a move away in either direction potentially dictating the trend for today.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 54.15 level.
Resistance comes in at 56.50 and 59.25.
Alternatively support comes in at 53.60 and 50.35.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 19.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://s24.postimg.org/huy0fwxx1/eurusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD continued to trade lower.
However overnight the price action has based around the 1.2280 level.
This could be a precursor to a possible upside correction with traders looking to take profits after making a killing from this two day collapse in EURUSD.
The signs of a corrective move is a foot would be if we get a close above the 1.2295 level.
This level corresponds to the high of the lowest candle printed in this down sequence.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.2575 level.
Support comes in at 1.2280 and 1.2245.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.2330 and 1.2360.
GBPUSD
(http://s24.postimg.org/kqb3ms1x1/gbpusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher and effectively painted a 1 hour double bottom formation above the 1.5540 level.
Cable however continues to be stuck at the 1.5660 resistance level.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5790 level.
Support can be found at 1.5625 and 1.5600 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5660 and 1.5725.
USDJPY
(http://s24.postimg.org/kazttrfzp/usdjpy.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s move above the 119.00 level took a prior intraday swing high.
This move has technically changed the trend from down to up.
This morning USDJPY continues to move higher.
I will be watching for a potential test of the 119.55 resistance level during the London open.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour u[trend with the line of control at the 118.25 level
Resistance levels are at 119.55 and 119.90.
Alternatively support is at 119.05 and 118.25.
USDCHF
(http://s24.postimg.org/p39n57anp/usdchf.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s move by the Swiss National Bank to apply negative interest rates on deposits added weakness to the Swiss Franc.
During volatile trading the price action did at one stage test but was repelled from the 0.9840 resistance level.
This morning USDCHF is trading at the highs of this 3 day up move and within a tight overnight range of 0.9795 to 0.9820.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9555 level
Resistance is at the 0.9820 and 0.9840 levels.
Alternatively support is at 0.9795 and 0.9740 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://s24.postimg.org/fntrrzsmt/audusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday AUDUSD did have a a strong move up that breached its channel and had an unsuccessful test of the 0.8200 resistance level.
A pronounced inverse head and shoulders pattern is now forming on the 1 hour chart.
If this pattern does break to the upside there is a possibility that we see a move to the 0.8265 resistance level.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8265 level.
Support is at the 0.8150 and 0.8100.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8200 and 0.8265.
GOLD
(http://s24.postimg.org/68dwesalx/gold.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday XAUUSD did close above its down channel but was not able to sustain the move higher and traded back into its prior trading range.
This morning Gold has once again broken above the down channel.
This move follows Gold to painting a higher low swing.
I am monitoring the price now for a possible retest of the 1203.00 resistance level.
A break above this level would open the door for a potential move to the 1215.00 resistance level.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1186.25 level.
Current upside resistance comes in at 1203.00 and 1215.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1191.65 and 1186.25.
OIL
(http://s24.postimg.org/vsg6l7vzp/oil.png)
The intraday technical outlook
There is still much volatility to be found in Oil trading.
Yesterday the price action made an unsuccessful attempt to retest the 58.85 resistance level but was ultimately pushed back as broke through the 56.50 support level.
The move down was finally held at the 54.15 support level.
This level now becomes key intraday support as a 1 hour close under this level will technically change the trend from up to down.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 54.15 level.
Resistance comes in at 56.50 and 58.25
Alternatively support comes in at 54.15 and 53.60.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 23.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/EURUSDH123122014.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD yesterday attempted to pair some of the recent losses.
However by the afternoon negative Euro sentiment came back into the market.
During the latter part of the New York session EURUSD was trading at the 1.2215 level.
This being above the significant 1.2200 big figure and monthly trend line support.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.2245 level.
Support comes in at 1.2200 and 1.2150.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.2245 and 1.2270.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/GBPUSDH123122014.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD traded lower into the New York session as traders pushed cable through the 1.5600 support level.
We did get a small pop up and retest of the 1.5600 level.
However GBPUSD has not been able to get back above this level.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5660 level.
Support can be found at 1.5540 and 1.5500 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5600 and 1.5660.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/USDJPYH123122014.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has continued to trade higher in what appears to be an upward procession.
With the 120.00 level being broken we have a weekly resistance level at the 120.70 level.
We can use this level as the next possible upside target.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 118.80 level
Resistance levels are at 120.70 and 121.80.
Alternatively support is at 120.00 and 119.00.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/USDCHFH123122014.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The recent upside momentum for USDCHF has declined as the price action consolidates within a narrow range.
As the trend is up it would be expected that we get an upside break of the 0.9840 area.
is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9800 level
Resistance is at the 0.9840 and 0.9920 levels.
Alternatively support is at 0.9820 and 0.9800 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://s23.postimg.org/o3xgbfl7f/audusd.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The overnight news coming out of Western Australia with respect to state finances brought back the negative market sentiment surrounding the Aussie Dollar.
This led to a break lower of the converging triangle pattern and a breach of the 0.8100 level.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8170 level.
Support is at the 0.8100 and 0.8070.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8140 and 0.8170.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/GOLDH12312214.png)
The intraday technical outlook
XAUUSD broke lower from its consolidation pattern with some power during the New York session as the price action slashing through the 1191.65, 1186.25 and 1178.65 support levels.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1203.00 level.
Current support comes in at 1178.65 and 1170.60.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 1186.25 and 1191.65.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/CLG5H123122014.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The negative news from the Saudi Oil minister sent the price of crude crashing yesterday.
However the price action continues to consolidated within a very broad converging triangle pattern.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 54.15 level.
Resistance comes in at 56.50 and 58.85
Alternatively support comes in at 54.15 and 53.00.
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ACFX AFTERNOON TECHNICAL REPORT – NEW YORK OPEN 24.12.2014
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/24122014nyEURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Not much has changed this morning which is not surprising with markets soon to close for Christmas.
A combination of continued political instability in Greece and the best USA GDP numbers in 11 years was enough to finally push EURUSD through the 1.2200 support level.
With the year fast coming to a close I would like to see a monthly close under the 1.2200 as confirmation that Euro weakness will continue into 2015.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.2245 level.
Support comes in at 1.2150 and 1.2100.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.2200 and 1.2245.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/24122014nyGBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning Cable has a bit of a rally as profit takers square up short positions prior to the long holiday.
With yesterdays price action having broken under the recent daily swing low of 1.5540 trying to pick the next support level becomes problematic as there is clear air between the current price and the next target.
The next major level being a 1.5340 being a prior weekly support area.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5600 level.
Support can be found at 1.5500 and 1.5450 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5540 and 1.5600.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/24122014nyUSDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning there is not much to report with USDJPY trading between the 120.00 to 120.70 levels
We may get some volatility coming into the market during the Tokyo session as the market waits for the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and for Bank of Japan governor Kuroda to give a speech.
However with most of Europe and the West closed for the annual festivities one would expect that the volatility is limited.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 120.00 level
Resistance levels are at 120.70 and 121.80.
Alternatively support is at 120.00 and 119.00.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/24122014nyUSDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDCHF has traded back to support as the price action moves in a tight range.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9820 level
Resistance is at the 0.9920 and 0.9950 levels.
Alternatively support is at 0.9840 and 0.9800 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/24122014nyAUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With Australia now closed for the Christmas period I would expect to see limited liquidity during today’s trading.
However that is not to say that we may get volatility spikes during the day.
AUDUSD yesterday had a bit of a yoyo session as it initially broke down from its triangle pattern then trade back into only for sellers to smack it down once again.
This scenario was predicted in yesterday mornings analysis.
AUDUSD has now formed a double bottom above the 0.8080 level.
A breach of this level is required to confirm a continuation of the down trend.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8140 level.
Support is at the 0.8100 and 0.8070.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8140 and 0.8170.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/24122014nyGOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning Gold is trading within a tight range.
A breach of the 1170.60 level is required to maintain the downside momentum.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1186.25 level.
Current support comes in at 1178.65 and 1170.60.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 1186.25 and 1191.65.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/24122014nyCLG5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning Oil has traded lower off its open as downside pressure increases.
Oil continues to traded within a large converging triangle formation as the markets contemplate the next moves to be made by OPEC and look for signs that an increased global growth can stimulate demand for crude.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 54.15 level.
Resistance comes in at 58.65 and 59.25.
Alternatively support comes in at 56.50 and 54.15.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 05.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/05012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD spiked lower on the open as the price action traded down to the 1.1851 level.
However buying came into the market which pushed EURUSD back up to its opening area.
The morning spike down has had the effect of creating a pin bar bottom.
I will today be monitoring the price action to see how EURUSD reacts to a potential move into the the areas of a of Fridays low and at the the top of its down channel.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.2185 level.
Current support comes in at 1.1950 and 1.1875.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.2000 and 1.2040.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/05012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD spiked lower at is open as it tested both the 1.5245 support level and major multi month trend line support.
However just like EURUSD buyers came into the market and pushed Cable back to its opening range.
I am monitoring the price action for a potential move higher of what is a major trend line support area.
A failure hold above trend line support could of course signal the start of a dramatic weakening for GBPUSD.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5605 level.
Current support can be found at 1.5245 and 1.5200 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5340 and 1.5485.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/05012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The morning USDJPY is trading within Fridays range as the price action moves within a choppy albeit bullish bias.
With the US Dollar being so strong of late I would expect that a successful test of the 120.70 level to happen today.
A failure to trade above this level could see USDJPY to consolidate within a tight range before it decided to make its next move.
However as USDJPY has broken above its recent down channel it would not be a surprise if we saw a continuation of the move higher.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 118.85 level
Current resistance levels are at 120.70 and 121.80.
Alternatively support is at 120.15 and 119.55.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/05012015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF spiked higher on its open as the price action broke above the 1.000 level.
At one point USDCHF did trade above the 1.0100 level however selling did come into the market which has pushed USDCHF back down to its opening range.
The USDCHF chart is now the mirror image of the price action that has happening on EURUSD.
A bearish pin bar has formed and this could now prompt a move down to the high of Friday and even down to the low of the channel bottom.
I will therefore be monitoring the price action to see how USDCHF reacts to a possible move to lower levels with a rejection of lower prices putting the focus back to the long side of the trade.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9865 level
Current resistance is at the 1.0050 and 1.0100 levels.
Alternatively support is at 1.000 and 0.9920 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/05012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD continued its relentless collapse as the price action broke under the 0.8070 support level.
With the next major monthly support level at the 0.8000 a further collapse in commodity prices combined with a continuation of weakness in China will add the pressure on AUDUSD and make a move down to this level more likely.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8215 level.
Current support is at the 0.8070 and 0.8120
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8050 and 0.8000.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/05012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday’s bounce off the 1170.60 level has continued into today’s trade as the price action approaches the 1199.20 resistance level.
I will be monitoring the price action to see if momentum increases or drops if we see Gold attempt to pull back.
The focus will be to identify if XAUUSD is attempting to paint a higher low which will potentially be a precursor to an assault on the 1210.00 level.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1170.60 level.
Current support comes in at 1191.65. and 1182.20.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 1199.20 and 1210.00.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/05012015CLG5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil on Friday traded under its 53.00 support level as the price action tested the 51.50 level.
I am currently watching if Oil can trade back up to the 53.00 level.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 54.50 level.
Current support comes in at 51.50 and 51.00.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 52.00 and 53.00.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 06.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/06012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Today has seen a continuation of yesterday’s theme.
This morning EURUSD failed once again to break above the 1.1965 level as the power if tge bullish pin bar formation begins to dissipate.
A penetration of yesterday’s low will confirm that the down trend is intact.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1965 level.
Current support comes in at 1.1900 and 1.1875.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1965 and 1.2040.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/06012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning GBPUSD has given up all of yesterday’s gains as it trades under 1.5245 area which is also a mufti month support level.
A penetration of yesterday’s low will confirm that the down trend is intact.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5270 level.
Current support can be found at 1.5160 and 1.5100 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5270 and 1.5340.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/06012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY collapsed during the New York session and this move lower has broken multiple support levels.
The move lower also penetrated the 119.80 support level.
The breach of this level has technically changed the 1 hour trend from up to down.
A continuation of the move lower would on a daily basis create a higher low formation with a move under the 115.70 level technically changing the daily trend from up to down.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 120.70 level
Current support is at 118.85 and 118.25.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 119.55 and 121.15.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/06012015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
What strikes me today is how detached USDJPY and USDCHF have become over past trading sessions.
We have USDJPY attempting to paint a daily lower high whilst USDCHF is testing the prior hourly high of 1.0112.
With such bullish momentum in USDCHF it would not be a surprise if USDCHF takes out the prior high in today’s trading.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.0040 level
Current resistance is at the 1.0100 and 1.0150 levels.
Alternatively support is at 1.0050 and 1.000 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/06012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD this morning has continued with yesterday’s strong up move as the price action tests the 0.8140 level.
A successful retest of this level could see AUDUSD also test the 0.8160 level.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8215 level.
Current support is at the 0.8120 and 0.8085
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8140 and 0.8160.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/06012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold during today’s session has breached the 1210.00 level.
In the daily time frame XAUUSD has now painted a higher low and a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern.
A completion of this pattern will need Gold to trade above the 1238.00 level.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1186.25 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1221.00 and 1228.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1210.00 and 1199.20.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/06012015CLG5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Overnight Oil broke under the significant 50.00 level.
The downward momentum continues as Oil attempts to test the low 48 levels.
With no end in sight to Oils capitulation it remains to be seen if the price action can test the 2008 crisis lows of US$ 34.00 per barrel.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 54.50 level.
Current support comes in at 48.00 and 47.50.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 50.35 and 53.00.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 07.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/07012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The general negativity surrounding EURUSD continued today as the morning price action took out the recent low of 1.1851.
The price action however over the past three sessions has put in place two pin bar support candles around the 1.1840 level.
This could be the first indication that a base is forming that could propel EURUSD back up to its channel top.
However with the momentum being so bearish a breach of the 1.1840 support levels is the natural direction of least resistance.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1970 level.
Current support comes in at 1.1875 and 1.1840.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1970 and 1.2040.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/07012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning GBPUSD has opened up negatively as the price action traded under the 1.5160 support level.
The recent move lower has now penetrated a multiple year trend line support.
However I would like to see a weekly or even better monthly close beneath this level as confirmation that this move is not a fake long term break down.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5245 level.
Current support can be found at 1.5100 and 1.5050 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5160 and 1.5245.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/07012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has experience an overnight rally following its bounce off the 118.25 support level.
I am targetting a move today back up to the 119.55 resistance level which now coincideds with the top of the down channel.
A failure to trade higher during the London session will put the focus back on the short side with a retest of the 118.85 being a possibility.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 120.70 level
Current support is at 118.85 and 118.25.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 119.55 and 120.15.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/07012015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF this morning opened up bullishly the price action taking out the prior 1 hour high.
However into the European session the current candle has broken under the 1.0110 support level.
A move lower would indicate that the mornings retest of resistance resulted in a fake break out.
I will be therefore be monitoring the price action for a potential move to the channel bottom.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.0040 level
Current resistance is at the 1.0110 and 1.0150 levels.
Alternatively support is at 1.0040 and 1.000 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/07012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
During the New York and Asia sessions AUDUSD has given up the majority of its gains.
However during the overnight and early into the European sesssion AUDUSD has built a small base off the 0.8050 level.
I await to see in AUDUSD can paint a higher low formation from these levels.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8160 level.
Current support is at the 0.8035 and 0.8000.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8070 and 0.8120.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/07012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Overnight Gold made an initial attempt to test the 1221.00 level but was not able to sustain the move higher.
The current price action could indicate that a retest of the 1221.00 level is a possibility.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1186.25 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1221.00 and 1228.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1210.00 and 1199.20.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/07012015CLG5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Overnight Oil broke under the significant 48.00 level.
The downward momentum continues as Oil attempts to test the low 47 levels.
With no end in sight to Oils capitulation it remains to be seen if the price action can test the 2008 crisis lows of US$ 34.00 per barrel.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 54.50 level.
Current support comes in at 47.00 and 46.50.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 50.35 and 53.00.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 08.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/08012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s US jobs report which indicated that there had been an increase in US employment pushed EURUSD slightly lower.
However news later in the day from the FOMC that there will be no rise in short term interest rates before April help the single currency gain some value as EURUSD bounced slightly higher.
With multiple year support and a large converging triangle broken to the down side the next longer term target is the 1.1640 level being the 2005 low.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1970 level.
Current support comes in at 1.1800 and 1.1750.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1840 and 1.1875.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/08012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD continued to trade lower.
Although Cable did manage to bounce higher in overnight trading it was unable to reverse any of yesterday’s losses.
The recent move lower has now penetrated a multiple year trend line support.
However I would like to see a weekly or even better monthly close beneath this level as confirmation that this move is not a fake long term break down.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5245 level.
Current support can be found at 1.5050 and 1.5000 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5160 and 1.5245.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/08012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDJPY continued to trade higher in what can be described as a typical staircase fashion.
The resulting move has now broken above a recently created broad down channel.
The price action has traded higher from what can be described as simple inverse head and and shoulders formation as indicated by the up arrows.
I am monitoring the price action for a possible pull back that creates a higher low formation that will build a base for USDJPY to proceed with its current upward momentum.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 120.70 level
Current support is at 119.80 and 119.55.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 120.15 and 120.70.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/08012015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yestderday USDCHF continued to trade in a bullish fashion as the price action took out prior recent highs.
This morning USDCHF has opened up bullishly and a test of the overnight high of 1.0175 is a possibility.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.0040 level
Current resistance is at the 1.0200 and 1.0250 levels.
Alternatively support is at 1.0110 and 1.0040 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/08012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has experienced a decent bounce since putting in an overnight low.
The price action has now formed a double bottom formation above the 0.8035 level.
Furthermore AUDUSD has broken above a recently formed down channel.
With this in mind I will be monitoring the price action for a possibility that AUDUSD creates a higher low swing from where a move higher could potentially happen.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8160 level.
Current support is at the 0.8085 and 0.8070.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8120 and 0.8140.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/08012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday traded lower for the entire session.
This morning this trend has continued in what can be described at present as a corrective pull back.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1186.25 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1210.00 and 1221.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1199.20 and 1191.65.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/08012015CLG5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The unexpected contraction in US oil inventories helped boost oil as it rallied off the 47.00 area lows.
However this morning it would appear that the up move is now beginning to run out of steam.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 54.50 level.
Current support comes in at 48.00 and 46.80.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 50.35 and 53.00.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 09.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/09012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD attempted to pair some of its losses but ultimately ended the day lower.
Overnight EURUSD has traded in a tight range as traders await this afternoons latest Non Farm Payrolls number.
A continuation of the positive jobs trend is bound to add more pressure onto the Euro.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1970 level.
Current support comes in at 1.1750 and 1.1700.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1840 and 1.1875.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/09012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Cable has open quietly this morning as traders await the latest Manufacturing Production numbers.
This follows yesterdays Bank of England decision not to increase interest rates.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5245 level.
Current support can be found at 1.5050 and 1.5000 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5100 and 1.5160.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/09012015USDJPYH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDJPY attempted to test the 120.00 area but ultimately failed to breach this area of resistance.
Overnight this area was retested but the price action failed to trade above the prior intraday high.
As per yesteday’s post USDJPY has traded higher in what can be described as a typical staircase fashion.
The resulting move has now broken above a recently created broad down channel.
The price action has traded higher from what can be described as simple inverse head and and shoulders formation as indicated by the up arrows.
I am monitoring the price action for a possible pull back that creates a higher low formation that will build a base for USDJPY to proceed with its current upward momentum.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 120.00 level
Current support is at 118.85 and 118.25.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 120.00 and 120.70.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/09012015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF put in a new intraday high as it traded above the 1.0200 level.
However in afternoon and overnight trading USDCHF experiencde a moderate corrective pullback.
With the up trend being so strong I am monitoring the possibility of USDCHF continuing with its bullish momentum at attempts to put in a new intraday high.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.0040 level
Current resistance is at the 1.0200 and 1.0250 levels.
Alternatively support is at 1.0110 and 1.0040 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/09012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning the Australian Bureau of Statistics released disappointing Retail Sales numbers.
This has allowed AUDUSD to experience a very moderate corrective sell off.
The price action has now formed a double bottom formation above the 0.8035 level.
Furthermore AUDUSD has broken above a recently formed down channel.
With this in mind I will be monitoring the price action for a possibility that AUDUSD creates a higher low swing from where a move higher could potentially happen.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8160 level.
Current support is at the 0.8120 and 0.8085.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8140 and 0.8160.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/09012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday experienced a moderate bounce off the 1205.00 level and although there was an aggressive sell off during the afternoon this support area once again proved to strong for the Bears to overcome.
Following this corrective pullback I am monitoring the price for a retest of the 1221.00 resistance level.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1205.00 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1221.00 and 1228.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1205.00 and 1199.20.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/09012015CLG5H11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has experienced some good corrective price action following its bounce off the 47.00 level.
The price action has resulted in Oil painting a higher low formation with Oil now testing the top of its down channel.
A break and close above the 49.50 level will technically change the trend from down to up.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 49.50 level.
Current support comes in at 48.00 and 47.00.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 49.50 and 50.35.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 13.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/13012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within yesterday’s range.
Yesterday’s price action did break above the current down channel as EURUSD painted a higher high and higher low formation.
I will today be monitoring the price action for a possible retest of the 1.1875 level which coincides with yesterdays high.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1785 level.
Current resistance can be found at 1.1875 and 1.1970.
Alternatively support comes in at 1.1785 and 1.1755.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/13012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning GBPUSD has bounce lower following a retest of the 1.5195 level.
This level coincides with yesterday’s high.
The resulting price action has created a minor intraday double top formation and a higher low swing.
This morning there is a great deal of economic data coming our of the UK with the highlight being the year on year CPI number.
One would assume that a lower than expected forecast number would add to the downward pressure Cable is currently experiencing.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5195 level.
Current support can be found at 1.5095 and 1.5030 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5195 and 1.5245.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/13012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY sat down yesterday following the latest release of Japan’s current account.
In early morning trading USDJPY rebounded off the 117.75 level.
With a Japan budget due to be announced tomorrow that plans to disclose record levels of support for the Japanese economy one could expect the possibility of increased market volatility and continued Yen weakness.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.30 level
Current support is at 118.25 and 117.75.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 118.85 and 119.30.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/13012015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following the break of its upward channel USDCHF has traded within a fairly tight range.
A double bottom has formed above the 1.0100 level and this would appear to today’s battle ground.
A breach and close of the 1.0200 level which is slight above yesterday’s high of 1.0188 would give confirmation that the current up trend is intact.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.0110 level
Current resistance is at the 1.0200 and 1.0250 levels.
Alternatively support is at 1.0110 and 1.0040 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/13012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday AUDUSD corrected aggressively lower as traders took profits off the table.
However in afternoon trading AUDUSD found support at the 0.8125 level.
I will this morning monitoring the price action for signs that AUDUSD is attempting to put in place a bullish higher low formation.
Such an occurrence could propel AUDUSD back up to yesterday’s high of 0.8255.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.8125 level.
Current resistance can be found at 0.8200 and 0.8255.
Alternatively support is at the 0.8160 and 0.8120.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/13012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold this morning continues to trade higher and as I write is resting the 1238.00 resistance level.
The move higher came off a bounce off the channel bottom.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1238.00 and 1254.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1230.00 and 1221.00.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/13012015CLG5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to trade lower as the price action slashes through the US$45.00 per barrel level.
Following an acceleration of downward momentum the possibility of Oil hitting the US$40.00 becomes more likely.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 49.50 level.
Current support comes in at 44.00 and 40.85.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 45.00 and 46.80.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 14.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/14012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
In afternoon trading EURUSD moved lower as the price action breached the 1.1785 support level.
The move below the 1.1785 level means that the price action breached the last prior isolated swing low.
This move technically changes the trend from up to down.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1860 level.
Current support comes in at 1.1755 and 1.1700.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1785 and 1.1860.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/14012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The market did initially sell off following the worse than expected CPI number.
However both the governor of the Bank of England, Mr, Mark Carney and the Chancellor of the Exchequer Mr. George Osborne have gone out of the way to play down the risk of deflation by focusing the discussion on the Oil story which on the whole is positive for the UK economy.
It would seem that the markets have a similar view with cable yesterday pairing most of its losses and closed just under its open.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5195 level.
Current support can be found at 1.5095 and 1.5030 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5195 and 1.5245.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/14012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s announcement of a record budget would seemed to have been welcomed as the Yen appreciated against the US Dollar.
The failure of USDJPY to retest December’s highs has given traders food for thought.
Falling US yields forced investors to sell the Green Back and shift their funds to lower risk assets.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 118.85 level
Current support is at 117.00 and 116.50.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.75 and 118.25.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/14012015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF traded higher off its double bottom formation as the price action took out the 1.0190 resistance level and retested the 1.0215 high.
However the price action was not about to sustain a move above the 1.0215 level and has during overnight and morning trading move back down to its channel bottom.
I am this morning currently monitoring the price action for a possible rebound off the channel bottom and a retest of the 1.0215 level.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.0125 level
Current resistance is at the 1.0215 and 1.0250 levels.
Alternatively support is at 1.0125 and 1.0100 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/14012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This mornings breach of the 0.8125 level will technically change the trend from up to down.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8200 level.
Current support is at the 0.8070 and 0.8035.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8125 and 0.8160.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/14012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday Gold put in a new recent high in late morning trading.
However as the day continued XAUUSD sold off.
This morning the sell off has continued as Gold trades under its down channel.
This morning a minor support level has now been established above the 1225.00 level with a minor one hour pin bar double bottom forming.
I will be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the current up trend.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1240.00 and 1244.50.
Alternatively support comes in at 1230.00 and 1221.00.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/14012015CLG5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil yesterday bounced off the US$44.25 area as the price action corrected above the US$45.00 level.
However the negativity has once again entered the market as Oil once more approaches the US$45.00 level.
Expect increased market volatility around the time of the US Oil Inventories report.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 49.50 level.
Current support comes in at 44.25 and 40.85.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 45.00 and 46.80.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 15.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/15012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD traded higher as the Dollar weakened due to a disappointing Retail Sales number.
The resulting move higher broke above the high of the current down channel.
Although EURUSD did trade above the high of its intraday swing pivot which technically changes the trend from down the move higher does look a little anemic.
Especially if one was to compare the strength in the other currency pairs and especially AUDUSD and Oil.
This maybe because of the the legal go ahead given by the European Court of Justice to the ECB with respect to Bond purchases, traders will still have an eye on shorting rallies in EURUSD.
As confirmation that this move higher will continue I would like to see a rejection of a move lower to the 1.1725 level which is yesterdays low and the possible formation of a double bottom / higher low.
From this base we will need to see 1.1845 taken out as this level is yesterday’s high and the last 1 hour isolated high pivot.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1725 level.
Current resistance can be found at 1.1810 and 1.1845.
Alternatively support comes in at 1.1755 and 1.1725.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/15012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher as the price action moved above the 1.5195 level.
The breach and close above this level has technically changed the trend from down to up.
The move higher was finally held at the 1.5245 level.
This coincides with the bottom of a recently broken multiple year trend line.
From a longer term perspective if the this months candle can close above this trend line then we have a powerful case for a continuation of higher prices.
I will discuss this further in a longer term GBPUSD analysis.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5075 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1.5245 and 1.5340.
Alternative support can be found at 1.5195 and 1.5100 levels.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/15012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Last night the Cabinet Office released the latest month on month Core Machinery Orders number.
The latest release missed the forecast by reporting 4.8% whereas the actual came in at 1.3%.
This news helped propel USDJPY higher as this currency pair put in a V bottom formation.
With USDJPY this morning testing the 117.75 level I am monitoring the price action for a possible test of the down channel top.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 118.85 level
Current support is at 117.00 and 116.10.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.75 and 118.25.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/15012015USDCHFH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF experienced a volatile session as it tested the 1.0235 level before falling back in the afternoon following the release of US data.
The move lower did breach and close under the 1.0165 level being the last isolated low.
The breach of this level technically changes the trend from up to down.
The recent price action has resulted in a rising wedge forming,
With the USDCHF now trading within a rather congested and choppy range it would probably best to trade this range.
Longer term directional traders can potentially taken if the range is broken.
USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.0235 level.
Current support is at 1.0125 and 1.0100 levels.
Alternatively resistance is at the 1.0215 and 1.0250 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/1501215AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Overnight the Australian Bureau of Statistics published its latest Employment Change number.
The number was a big surprise as the actual of 37.4K being a big beat on the forecast of 5.3K.
This news did much to propel AUDUSD higher as the price action broke the 0.8200 resistance level.
The breach of the 0.8200 level means that the price action has broken above the last isolated high and this has resulted in the trend technically changing from down to up.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.8070 level.
Current resistance can be found at 0.8255 and 0.8350.
Alternatively support is at the 0.8200 and 0.8160.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/15012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday attempted to test but ultimately failed to breach the 1244.00 resistance level.
It would now appear that there is a possibility that trading range will form between the 1225.00 and 1244.00 levels.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1225.00 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1240.00 and 1244.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1225.00 and 1221.00.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/15012015CLG5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s Crude Oil Inventories report stated the reserves had expanded to 5.4M.
This number beat the forecast of 1.2M by a wide margin.
Although inventories expanded Oil shrugged off the news as it traded higher.
The move higher broke above the current large down channel and the last isolated high at the 46.80 level.
The breach of the 46.80 level technically changes the 1 hour trend from down to up.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 45.00 level.
Current resistance comes in at 49.50 and 50.35.
Alternatively support comes in at 47.00 and 45.00.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 16.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/1601215EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following yesterday’s news the focus once again is on the Swiss National Bank.
The SNB as a holder of a very substantial position of Euro’s is now a downward pressure on the EURCHF and EURUSD currency pairs.
With Euro stimulus seemingly on the way I expect sell offs into strength to continue.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1845 level.
Current support comes in at 1.1560 and 1.1500.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1640 and 1.1725.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/16012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following the news of the SNB action GBPUSD made another attempt at the 1.5245 resistance level.
As I have mentioned in prior post this level coincides with the bottom of a recently broken multiple year trend line.
From a longer term perspective if the this months candle can close above this trend line then we have a powerful case for a continuation of higher prices.
I will discuss this further in a longer term GBPUSD analysis.
With the SNB implementing a policy of negative interests rates I would expect to see a shift of funds into the pound and more specifically the safe haven of the London real estate market.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5150 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1.5195 and 1.5245.
Alternative support can be found at 1.5150 and 1.5100 levels
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/16012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday the SNB announcement has necessitated a flight to safety and the Yen together Gold has been one of the major beneficiaries.
We have a prior weekly support level at the 115.70 level.
I would expect that the markets have also identified this level and will possibly attempt to test it at some stage.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 117.75 level
Current support is at 116.10 and 115.70.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.75 and 118.25.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/16012015USDCHFMonthly.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Due to the SNB action any charts shorter than a monthly time frame are for the time being very difficult to read.
Furthermore the range based levels based off the average true range or off pivots for the time being are unreliable.
Therefore to try and give an intraday perspective for the time being is hard to do.
The trend is most definitely down and will all things being equal will continue to point it this direction.
I will take a detail look at the Swiss Franc tomorrow but for the time being I will let the market work through this excessive volatility.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/16012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD corrected downwards in afternoon and overnight trading.
However this morning it appears that support has held at the 0.8200 level.
This morning AUDUSD has resumed its upward direction.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.8070 level.
Current resistance can be found at 0.8255 and 0.8295.
Alternatively support is at the 0.8200 and 0.8160.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/16012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
I focused on Gold this week as technically there looked like an opportunity for a longer term buy trade setting up.
The SNB decision would seem to have time the technical’s and fundamentals to perfection.
Especially with Swiss Banks now penalizing deposits with negative interest rates holding Gold now becomes that little bit more attractive.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1225.00 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1269.00 and 1280.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1254.00 and 1225.00.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/16012015CLG5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil at one stage traded at US$51.00 to the barrel.
However in afternoon trading Oil sold off as the price action collapsed under the 47.15 isolated low.
The breach and close under the 47.15 technically changes the trend from up to down.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 51.00 level.
Current support comes in at 45.00 and 44.25.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 46.80 and 51.00.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 19.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/19012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The Euro continues to slide as the ECB decision begins to loom large this week.
With market volatilty increasing day by day could it be in the realms of possibility that we have a test of the 1.1000 level by the time of the ECB meeting.
For now the the mid 1.20 levels in December seem like a long time ago.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1640 level.
Current support comes in at 1.1560 and 1.1500.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1640 and 1.1725.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/19012015GBPUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Late on Friday GBPUSD broke the 1.5150 support level.
The breach of the prior isolated low technically changes the trend from up to down.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5230 level.
Current support can be found at 1.5100 and 1.5070 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5150 and 1.5195
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/19012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY on Friday bounced off the double bottom support area that is found at 116.10.
What followed was an attempt to retest the 117.75 resistance level.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 117.75 level
Current support is at 116.10 and 115.70.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 117.75 and 118.25.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/USDCHFMonthly.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The market volatility that was caused by the SNB action continues to play havoc with the charts.
I am awaiting for new data to feed into the chart as only this will this help to smooth out the recent market volatility.
In meantime a new range has been formed between the 0.8205 to 0.9125 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/19012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
On Friday AUDUSD traded higher as the price action bounced off the 0.8160 area.
The move higher continued into today’s trader however the recent price action has been rather choppy.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.8160 level.
Current resistance can be found at 0.8255 and 0.8295.
Alternatively support is at the 0.8200 and 0.8160.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/19012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold traded higher on Friday as traders and investors looked safety in this turbulent market.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1254.00 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1280.00 and 1306.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1269.00 and 1254.00.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/19012015CLG5H12.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The SNB news has relegated the Oil story out of the spotlight.
The ECB meeting and the Greek election will further allow Oil to drop out of the limelight.
This lack of focus on Oil could just be what is required to allow Oil to build a base above the 45.00 level.
Friday’s break under the 47.15 support level has changed the trend from up to down.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 48.85 level.
Current support comes in at 46.00 and 45.00.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 48.85 and 51.00.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 20.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/20012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD failed to breach the 1.1640 when it retested this level.
Subsequently the price action traded back down to the 1.1565 support level.
With the QE decision looming large the market is now trying to second guess which way the ECB will decide to go.
The SNB move had initially made it look like a decision on Euro Zone stimulus was a certainty however there are now concerns that the ECB could spring a surprise on traders.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1640 level.
Current support comes in at 1.1560 and 1.1500.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1640 and 1.1725.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/20012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GDPUSD continued to slide as the price action took out a recent isolated 4 hour pivot low at the 1.5075 level.
It would appear that traders are now targeting the 1.5030 2015 low.
With the weekly and monthly charts looking so bear ugly there is a possibility that we do see a continuation of the downward momentum.
The only hope presently for the bulls is if a double bottom forms above the 1.5030 on the daily time frame.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5175 level.
Current support can be found at 1.5075 and 1.5030 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5100 and 1.5150.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/20012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY overnight broke above both the 117.75 resistance level and the downward channel.
The move above the 117.75 level has technically changed the trend from down to up.
With the Bank of Japan governor due to deliver a press conference in the early hours of Wednesday morning a reaffirmation of the current dovish stance will only add to this recent USDJPY rally.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 116.90 level
Current resistance levels are at 118.85 and 119.30
Alternatively support is at 118.25 and 117.75.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/20012015USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
The market volatility that was caused by the SNB action continues to play havoc with the charts.
I am awaiting for new data to feed into the chart as only this will this help to smooth out the recent market volatility.
In meantime a new range has been formed between the 0.8450 to 0.8815 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/19012015AUDUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning AUDUSD traded lower on the China GDP news.
However the sell off has been limited as the market digests the news that this data was not as bad as expected.
In the past four hours AUDUSD has traded higher off the 0.8160 support level.
I am now monitoring the price action for a possible retest of the 0.8240 level.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.8160 level.
Current resistance can be found at 0.8200 and 0.8215.
Alternatively support is at the 0.8160 and 0.8125.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/20012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold this morning is trading higher following its one day consolidation with the price action currently testing the 1280.00 resistance level.
A breach and close above this level could accelerate the pace of upward momentum.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1254.00 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1280.00 and 1306.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1269.00 and 1254.00.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/20012015CLG5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday Mr. Mohammed al-Sabban who is the Saudi Arabia minister for petroleum said that his could country would not suffer economically even if oil prices stay at low levels for “at least eight years”.
It is obvious that such comments are made to spook the markets and came at a time when the price of oil has risen moderately.
Although oil did drop on the back of these comments the fall was not as dramatic and deep as could have been expected.
The intraday chart has now arrived at a juncture in that the price action is now trading in a 46.00 to 49.00 range.
A brake above or beneath this range will potentially dictate the medium term directional momentum.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 48.85 level.
Current support comes in at 46.00 and 45.00.
Alternatively resistance comes in at 48.85 and 51.00.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 22.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/22012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD traded nervously as the market battled to form a view on the soon to announced us ECB stimulus program.
The markets have already priced in EUR 500 billion and an “open ended” ECB policy.
A failure to deliver this could send European equities crashing and the Euro higher.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1640 level.
Current support comes in at 1.1565 and 1.1500.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 1.1640 and 1.1725.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/22012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD traded lowers on the news that all MPC policy makers had decided to keep interest rates on hold.
Up until recently two of the Monetary Policy Committee members had advocated a increase in interest rates. Therefore this shift in opinion puts back further the possibility of an interest rate increase.
Trying to make sense of the 1 hour chart for Cable at the moment is a little difficult as the price action has become very volatile with wild swings in price occurring.
A look at the four hour chart one can see the price action forming one of the most difficult patterns to trade which is an expanding triangle.
The price action needs to break above or beneath this range for more clarity to come into the trade.
GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5175 level.
Current support can be found at 1.5100 and 1.5200 levels.
Alternative resistance comes in at 1.5100 and 1.5050.
USDJPY
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/22012015USDJPYH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY continues to trade above both the 117.75 resistance level and the downward channel.
The move above the 117.75 level has technically changed the trend from down to up.
USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 117.15 level
Current resistance levels are at 118.25 and 118.85.
Alternatively support is at 117.75 and 117.15.
USDCHF
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/22012015USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
The market volatility that was caused by the SNB action continues to play havoc with the charts.
I am awaiting for new data to feed into the chart as only this will this help to smooth out the recent market volatility.
In meantime a new range has been formed between the 0.8450 to 0.8815 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/22012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday AUDUSD crashed through its 0.8160 support level.
This move has changed the intraday trend from up to down.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8230 level.
Current support is at the 0.8070 and 0.8035.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8125 and 0.8160.
GOLD
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/22012015GOLDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has experienced a two day correction that has taken the price action close to its channel bottom and the 1280.00 support level.
I am monitoring the price action for a potential rebound off these levels.
Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1269.00 level.
Current resistance comes in at 1306.00 and 1321.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1280.00 and 1269.00.
OIL
(http://acfxblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/22012015CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The recent price action on oil has seen the trading ranges get smaller and smaller day by day.
Trying to get a 1 hour trend bias is difficult at the moment.
Although we have a break above a prior swing high which means we are in a technical up trend the structure of the recent price action leads me to question the validity of current directional momentum.
That we have had a break of a large down channel does give an indication that the longer term bias is up.
However the price of Oil at the moment is dictated by through away comments by official and semi official comments and current geo-political events.
More clarity will come once we have the ECB meeting and this afternoons Crude Inventories report.
Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 46.80 level.
Current resistance comes in at 48.20 and 48.85
Alternatively support comes in at 46.80 and 46.00.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 27.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/27012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD bounced higher as it traded back up to the 1.2950 level.
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades in a very tight range.
I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.1100 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1640 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/27012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has had a good bounce that has taken the price action back up to its channel top.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential resumption of its prior down trend.
In terms of news the BBA mortgage approvals data and more importantly the Preliminary GDP data is out this morning at 9:30 am London time.
This news could cause market volatility.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5195 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/27012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY continues to trade within a very large range between the 117.15 to 118.85 levels.
This morning USDJPY is trading lower off its open as it retraces back to the 117.75 level.
A successful test of the 118.85 is required to confirm the strength of the up trend.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 117.15 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/27012015USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
The market volatility that was caused by the SNB action continues to play havoc with the charts.
I am awaiting for new data to feed into the chart as only this will this help to smooth out the recent market volatility.
In meantime a new range has been formed between the 0.8450 to 0.8815 levels.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/27012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has traded higher as it approaches its channel top.
The move higher has taken the price action back into its averages.
I am currently monitoring a potential resumption of the down trend.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8125 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/27012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold this morning broke above its very narrow down channel.
This could be the first signs that the recent downside correction is coming to an end.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1298.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/27012015CLH5H11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s news from OPEC that prices have bottom helped keep Oil above the US$ 45.00 per barrel level.
However further evidence is required before I will take notice of a possible upside reversal.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 30.01.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/30012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD finished the day testing its channel top.
This morning EURUSD has made a successful attempt to break above this resistance level.
With European CPI data out this morning and the markets eyeing events in Athens we may see some volatility hit the Euro trade today.
Today I will be monitoring a continuation of the recent up move towards the 1.1465 resistance level.
The breach of the 1.1295 level being the prior isolated swing high has changed the trend from down to up.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1295 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/30012015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD collapse was finally reversed late into the New York session.
We did get a good bounce off the 1.5030 support level which took the price action back up to the 1.5075 resistance level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a resumption of the down trend.
A breach of the 1.5150 support level has technically changed the trend from up to down.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5220 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/30012015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The market ignored the overnight data with the price action continuing to trade in a tight 8 day range.
USDJPY continues to trade within a very large range between the 117.15 to 118.85 levels.
This morning USDJPY is trading lower off its open as it retraces back to the 117.75 level.
A successful test of the 118.85 is required to confirm the strength of the up trend.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 117.15 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/30012015USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF continues its mini revival as the price action broke above its 0.9140 level.
With some normality coming back into the USDCHF price action I will soon once more be taking a closer look at the intraday USDCHF price action
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/30012015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s decline in AUDUSD was finally halted at the 0.7720 area.
However with the trend is still pointing down I will be monitoring the price action for a possible continuation of this move and a test of the 0.7700 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.8000 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/30012015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold continued to trade lower throughout the day. However this move was finally halted at the 1254.00 support level.
I am today monitoring the price action for a potential move back up to the channel top.
A failure to trend higher could see Gold retest the 1254.00 support level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1293.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/30012015CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday Oil broke under its US$45.00 support level and traded down to the US$43.50 area before reversing of it lows.
The price action is currently trading just above the the top of its down channel.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a possible resumption of the down trend.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 46.35 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 03.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/03022015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD broke out of its down channel.
The price action is currently trading within a five day range.
A break above or below this range could indicate the direction of the medium term trend with key levels being 1.1220 and 1.1420.
The breach of the 1.1295 level being the prior isolated swing high has changed the trend from down to up.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1295 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/03022015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following Cable’s break above it’s down channel the bulls would have hoped that there would have been some upside follow through.
However this was not to be with GBPUSD pairing a lot of the gains of its recent up move.
The price action tested and was repelled by at the 1.4990 level.
This morning GDPUSD is once again retesting the 1.4990 support level.
The breach of the 1.5150 support level has technically changed the trend from up to down.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5075 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/03022015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDJPY broke lower from its 10 day congestion area.
However the move lower was short lived as the price action moved back to the 117.75 resistance level.
This morning we have seen USDJPY once again retested and bounce off the 116.90 support level.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of 117.75 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 117.75 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/0302015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The chart for USDCHF is slowly getting back to normal.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9160 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/030202015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The action by the Reserve Bank of Australia has sent the Aussie Dollar into free fall.
The comments from the RBA that their Dollar is still over valued can only put more pressure on AUDUSD.
The next major level for AUDUSD is the 0.7315 weekly support target.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.7800 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/03022015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Over the past two days trading XAUUSD has broken above its down channel.
This could be an indication the Gold has once again resumed its prior up trend.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1269.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/03022015CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Some positive sentiment has come back into the market as traders have begun to bet that the fall in the price of crude has found a floor.
With the price of crude rebounding off the US$45.00 level and is currently trading above the US$50.00 level the rally so far has been very impressive.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 44.25 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 04.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/04022015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD yesterday experienced a strong rally yesterday following the conciliatory statements coming from the Greek administration.
The move higher has taken EURUSD back into major resistance in the shape of the 21 period daily moving averages.
Professional traders will be eyeing this level for signs of weakness that sends EURUSD back into its downward intraday direction.
The breach of the 1.1295 level being the prior isolated swing high has changed the trend from down to up.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1310 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/040202015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s UK construction PMI data helped pushed GBPUSD higher.
With the FTSE 100 now feeding off capital inflows that stimulate higher stock market prices could add to a further appreciation in the price of cable.
The price action has now put in place a double bottom formation at the 1.4990 level.
This followed a prior break above a large down channel.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.4990 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/04022015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The price action that has unfolded over the past two days has had the effect of creating a double bottom formation above the 116.90 level.
The daily chart would indicate that a large converging triangle is forming.
With the trend being so bullish on the weekly time frame I would look for an upside break of this consolidation pattern.
However as always it would be better to allow the break to happen and then trade the pullback in the direction of the initial move.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 116.90 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/04022015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s breach of the 0.9250 level has technically changed the trend from up to down.
This moves corresponds to the price action coming into an area of resistance of the 21 period daily moving averages.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.9295 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/04022015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday we witnessed a move that breached the large down channel that has formed around the AUDUSD price action.
This morning we have seen a follow through of yesterdays move.
The move above the 0.7800 has technical changed the trend from down to up.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.7630 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/04022015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s mini collapse in the price of Gold has now created a double top formation at the 1284.00 level.
The move lower also took out the 1269.00 level. The breach of this isolated low has technical changed the intraday trend from up to down.
The price action is now trading with a range of 1254.00 to 1284.00.
A breach above or beneath these levels could possibly indicate the medium term trend direction.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1284.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/04022015CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
News from the United States that the crude extractors are now pulling rigs is giving the bulls hope that the fall in the price of oil is now done.
What is now of interest is the weekly time frame. If we can now get a weekly close above the high of the prior weeks candle then we technically have a reversal signal.
However to say that the market has found its bottom is still very premature.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 44.25 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 05.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/5022015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s announcement by the ECB that it was lifting its waiver on Greek debt sent the Euro in free fall.
EURUSD slashed through multiple support levels before finally stalling at the 1.1310 level.
This morning EURUSD has bounced off this level and is testing the 1.1365 resistance level.from down to up.
The move lower has seen EURUSD breach its channel bottom. I will therefore be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move lower.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1310 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/05022015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD yesterday evening gave up some of its gains as the price action corrected downward.
The price action has now put in place a double bottom formation at the 1.4990 level.
This followed a prior break above a large down channel.
I will this morning monitoring the price action for a resumption of the upward momentum.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.4990 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/05022015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
The price action that has unfolded over the past two days has had the effect of creating a double bottom formation above the 116.90 level.
The daily chart would indicate that a large converging triangle is forming.
With the trend being so bullish on the weekly time frame I would look for an upside break of this consolidation pattern.
However as always it would be better to allow the break to happen and then trade the pullback in the direction of the initial move.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 116.90 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/05022015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
Yesterday’s breach of the 0.9250 level has technically changed the trend from up to down.
This moves corresponds to the price action coming into an area of resistance of the 21 period daily moving averages.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.9295 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/05022015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following the breach the large down channel AUDUSD has corrected down to the 0.7730 down channel.
This morning AUDUD has bounced off the 0.7730 support level and is now testing the 0.7800 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.7630 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/05022015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
The mini collapse in the price of Gold has now created a double top formation at the 1284.00 level.
The move lower also took out the 1269.00 level. The breach of this isolated low has technical changed the intraday trend from up to down.
The price action is now trading with a range of 1254.00 to 1284.00.
A breach above or beneath these levels could possibly indicate the medium term trend direction.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1284.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/05022015CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil overnight continued with its down side correction that followed off its mini rally.
This move has taken the price action back into the range of the previous weeks candle.
With the price action now trading now trading at the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the move higher I would really like to see the bulls take Oil higher from these levels.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 44.25 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 06.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/06022015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD experienced a strong bounce off the 1.1310 level which took the price action back into recently broken up channel.
This morning EURUSD has bounce lower off the bottom of the up channel.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1310 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/06022015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has traded higher yesterday as it slashed through a major resistance level which is formed by multiple year support level that was broken early in January.
This morning I will monitor the price action for a continuation of the move higher.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5175 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/06022015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
The price action that has unfolded over the past two days has had the effect of creating a double bottom formation above the 116.90 level.
The daily chart would indicate that a large converging triangle is forming.
With the trend being so bullish on the weekly time frame I would look for an upside break of this consolidation pattern.
However as always it would be better to allow the break to happen and then trade the pullback in the direction of the initial move.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 116.90 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/0602215USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
USDCHF is currently trading in a tight range at the top of the recent rally.
The breach of the 0.9250 has breached the last isolated high.
I am monitoring the price action for a potential retest of the 0.9340 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9200 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/06022015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The Reserve Bank of Australia issued a mixed message overnight but it was enough to push AUDUSD higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.7860 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.7730 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/06022015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
The mini collapse in the price of Gold has now created a double top formation at the 1284.00 level.
The move lower also took out the 1269.00 level. The breach of this isolated low has technical changed the intraday trend from up to down.
The price action is now trading with a range of 1254.00 to 1284.00.
A breach above or beneath these levels could possibly indicate the medium term trend direction.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1284.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/06022015CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday Oil bounced off the 48.00 level. I was anticipating such a move as the price action had retreated back to a Fibonacci support area.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move to the 54.15 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 47.50 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 09.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/0902-EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday close EURUSD has retraced back to 1.1310 support level, which took the price action back towards the down trading channel.
This morning EURUSD has bounced slightly higher off that support level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 1.1310 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/0902-GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
After reaching 1.5350 on Friday GBPUSD has retraced back to 1.5220 support level, where the price has stabilized this morning.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5340 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/0902-USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The USDJPY pair has shot back to 119.20 level, as at the end of Friday’s session.
With bullish trend on the weekly time frame, the probability of an upside break of this pattern is very high.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 116.90 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/0902-USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is continuing to trade in a tight range, which begun at 29 of January.
We are monitoring the price action for a potential retest of the 0.9340 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9200 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/0902-AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The recent statement of Reserve Bank of Australia did not have enough power to push AUDUSD higher.
This morning we are looking for the the price action to retest of the 0.7860 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 0.7730 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/0902-GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
There was a second pull down of the Gold price on the Friday afternoon, which has reached 1228, 00 level.
The move lower also took out the 1269.00 level. The breach of this isolated low has technical changed the intraday trend from up to down.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1225.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/0902CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning the Oil price felt short of creating a double top at 54.15 level and has retraced at the resistance of 53.00.
This morning we are monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move to the 54.15 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 47.50 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 11.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1102-EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD continue to range around 1.1310 level. Currently it is congesting around 1.13 territory in the expectation of the tonight’s outcome of Eurozone meeting regarding the Greek situation.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1310 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1102-GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD is still ranging in the range 1.52 – 1.5270 region, before continuingon further direction.
On a Daily chart the pair is trading within downtrend channel, therefore entering the buy orders will still not be prudent at the moment.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 1.5280 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1102-USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The USDJPY is continuing shooting up and currently approaching 120 resistance level.
With the strong up trend, which has begun in early 2012, we can see no reversal signs yet.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 120.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1102-USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continue to trade in 0.925 range, which begun on 29th of January.
We continue to monitor the price action for a potential retest of the 0.9340 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 0.9200 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1102-AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has retraced back from its unsuccessful attempt to break 0.786 resistance. After creating head and shoulders pattern yesterday, it might try to retest 0.7730 support level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 0.7730 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1102-GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has resumed its downward trend after the 6th February shot down.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1225.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1102-CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning the Oil price has made a double top at 54.00 level and has retraced currently
We are monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move above 54.15 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 47.50 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 12.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1202EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD became slightly stronger today but continues to trade in 1.1270 – 1.1360 range.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 1.1360 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1202-GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD is still ranging in the range 1.52 – 1.5270 region, before continuingon further direction.
On a Daily chart the pair is trading within downtrend channel, therefore entering the buy orders will still not be prudent at the moment.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 1.5280 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1202-USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The USDJPY is continuing shooting up and currently approaching 120 resistance level.
With the strong up trend, which has begun in early 2012, we can see no reversal signs yet.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 120.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1202-USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continue to trade in 0.925 range, which begun on 29th of January.
We continue to monitor the price action for a potential retest of the 0.9340 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 0.9200 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1202-AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has retraced back from its unsuccessful attempt to break 0.786 resistance. After creating head and shoulders pattern yesterday, it might try to retest 0.7730 support level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 0.7730 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1202-AUDUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has resumed its downward trend after the 6th February shot down.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1225.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1202-CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning the Oil price has made a double top at 54.00 level and has retraced currently
We are monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move above 54.15 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 47.50 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 13.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1302-EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD continued its yesterday growth, reaching new high of 1.1440 this morning.
After forming higher low in the second week of February, this might finally be a reversal sign. Especially as the US dollar is weakening currently.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 1.1465 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1302-GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has broken the significant 1.5280 resistance level on the optimistic report by the Bank of England this morning. The pair has reached 1.5387 level.
On a Daily chart the pair has broken the downwards channel, which formed in July 2014. This could be the first signs of the trend reversal, though we should expect for the trend change confirmation first.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5485 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1302-USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The USDJPY has fell over 1% this morning as Bank of Japan has announced that it has no plans for further QE.
From the larger perspective there were still no reversal signs of uptrend of the pair. USDJPY continue trading within 116.00- 120.00 range since December 2014.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 120.70 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1302-USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has finally made a new high after many days consolidation pattern. The pair has reached 0.9335 this morning, the level we were monitoring for the number of days.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9340 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1302-AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD continues its downtrend, after a new resistance level at 0.770 was formed.
The pair has pulled down sharply, as the Reserve Bank of Australia has cut its interest rate to the record low on February 3. AUDUSD continue to fall as more traders entering short positions, fearing of further interest cuts in March.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.700 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1302-GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold price has strengthened slightly, after it has reached a significant support level at 1216.00.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1216.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/1302-CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price has extended its morning gains, after it failed to reach 47.50 support line and formed higher low.
We continue to monitor the price action for a continuation of the move above 54.15 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour range with the line of control at the 48.00 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – NEW YORK OPEN 16.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/16022015nyEURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
A combination of the Presidents day holiday and the Euro Group meeting has led to quiet trading.sign. Especially as the US dollar is weakening currently.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.1270 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/16022015nyGBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD this morning did put in a new recent high however the price action was not able to sustain the move higher.
This has led to a strong decline back down to Friday’s low.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5195 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/16022015nyUSDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has experienced a quiet days trading as the price action remaining within Friday’s range.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 118.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/16022015nyUSDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continues to trade withing a tight range under the recent 0.9340 high.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9265 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/16022015nyAUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has this morning confined its trading within Friday’s range.
A double bottom has formed above the 0.7630 level.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 0.7800 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/16022015nyGOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold this morning has broken above the top of its large down channel.
This could a possible sign that the current down trend is coming to an end.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/16022015nyCLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following its recent bounce Oil is now trading with a 48 to 54 range.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 48.00 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – NEW YORK OPEN 17.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/17022015nyEURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
An up tick in ZEW data helped pushed the Euro higher this morning.
The price rise was however halted at the 1.1440 resistance level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1440 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/17022015nyGBPUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD CPI data came in at expected at 0.3% which was lower than the prior months 0.5%
The price action has been so far this morning rather choppy with the price action trading within a tight range.
However GBPUSD continues to trade back above prior broken multiple year trend line support.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5440 level
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/17022015nyUSDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDJPY has bounced off the 118.25 level.
This has seen the price action test the 118.85 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.20 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/17022015nyUSDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This afternoon the SNB chairman is due to speak.
This could cause volatility in the markets with traders monitoring the current flexible floor and ceiling levels.
USDCHF continues to trade within a tight range under the recent 0.9340 high.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9265 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/17022015nyAUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The AUDUSD has continued to trade higher as the price action breached the 0.7800 resistance level.
A double bottom has formed above the 0.7630 level.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.7730 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/17022015nyGOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has continued to decline following yesterday’s attempt to trade back above the down channel.
We still require a move above yesterday’s pivot high of 1236.65 to confirm that the uptrend is intact.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/17022015nyCLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
Following its recent bounce Oil is now trading with a 48 to 54 range.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 48.00 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – NEW YORK OPEN 18.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/18022015nyEURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The markets continue to feel the fall out of the Greek debt impasse with the ongoing indecision can be seen in the charts with EURUSD trading within a large converging triangle.
The price action has so far failed to break above the 1.1440 resistance level.
EURUSD needs to trade above this level if the current upward momentum is to be confirmed.
A breach of the triangle formation in either direction could indicate the path of possible market direction.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.1440 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/18022015nyGBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The good UK data had the effect of sending higher.
This had followed a bounce off the area of the channel bottom.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 1.5440 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/18022015nyUSDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDJPY has traded above the 119.20 resistance level.
I want to see a pull back and a retest of this level to confirm that the trend is changing to up.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.20 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/19022015nyUSDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continues to trade higher as the price action this morning has broken above the 0.9370 resistance level.
This up move has created a rather distinct up channel.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.9265 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/18022015nyAUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has had a quiet days trading as the price action consolidates above the 0.7800 support level.resistance level.
A double bottom has formed above the 0.7630 level.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 0.7730 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/18022015nyGOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted this morning:
The drop off in the price of Gold gather pace yesterday as the price action moves to test the 1200.00 level.
With the price action now trading into a Fibonacci support area I am monitoring the price action for signs of downward momentum dissipating.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/18022015nyCLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted this morning:
The recent up move in the price the price of Oil has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle formation.
I am monitoring the price action for a potential breach of the triangle top.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 48.00 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 19.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/19022015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has been trading in a broad up channel for some 7 sessions.
However the 1.1440 level continues to offer EURUSD some stiff resistance.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1440 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/19022015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD continues to rise off the back of good UK data.
This can be seem by the price action trading within a a large up channel.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5340 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/19022015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDJPY has traded off its highs as the price action moves in the direction of the 118.25 support level.
A bounce off this level and a successful retest of the 119.20 resistance level would confirm that a new up trend is under way.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/19022015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continues to trade higher with the price action having broken above the above the 0.9370 resistance level.
This up move has created a rather distinct up channel.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9310 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/19022015AUDUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD continues to spike higher and fall back.
I would really like to see AUDUSD to trade above the current structure and breach the 0.7900 level so as to confirm that major up side correction is underway.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7770 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/19022015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold continued to trade lower yesterday however late in the sessions we did get a good bounce off the 1200 area.
With the price action now trading into a Fibonacci support area I am monitoring the price action for signs of downward momentum dissipating.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1240.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/19022015CLH5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil yesterday broke under its up channel and large triangle structure.
With Crude inventory numbers out this afternoon and unexpected increase in stockpiles could send Oil falling.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 54.15 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 20.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/20022015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The Greek debt negotiations have now entered a crucial stage as the week comes to a close.
Although the meeting in Brussels today will be tough I have hopes that a consensus can be found.
From a technical view point the 1.1440 level have offered good resistance with the price action having also broken under is up channel.
We need to see a penetration of the 1.1330 level to happen as a reinforcement of the short side scenario to continue.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1440 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/20022015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
GBPUSD continues to rise off the back of good UK data.
This can be seem by the price action trading within a a large up channel.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5340 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/20022015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is this morning trading within a very narrow 5 day range.
Although the current price action is bullish we need a move above the 119.20 resistance level would confirm that a new up trend is under way.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/20022015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted this yesterday:
USDCHF continues to trade higher with the price action having broken above the above the 0.9370 resistance level.
This up move has created a rather distinct up channel.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9370 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/20022015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD this morning continues to trade within a four day range with the recent price action forming a large converging triangle structure.
We require a penetration of the triangle top as confirmation that the up trend is intact.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7770 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/20022015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday we did get a pull back off the down channel.
The price action now needs to successfully test the 1198.65 level if the current down trend is to be maintained.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/20022015CLH5H11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday we had a break of the bottom of the triangle bottom.
This move has created an isolated low just above the 48.00 level.
A continuation of the down trend will require a retest of this level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 54.15 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 23.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/23022015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With the Greek crisis put on pause for at least four months the markets can now get back to digesting news from the European center with the German Ifo survey out this morning.
The price action is currently trading in a large 14 day range between 1.1300 and 1.1450.
A break of this range would potential give us a clue of the potential medium term directional momentum.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1450 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/2322015GBPUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning GBPUSD continues to trade at the bottom of its up channel.
I am currently monitoring the price action for a potential bounce from these levels.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5320 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/23022015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is this morning trading within a very narrow 5 day range.
Although the current price action is bullish we need a move above the 119.40 resistance level would confirm that a new up trend is under way.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/230220105USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has had a good bounce off its up channel,
I am this morning monitoring a potential test of the 0.9530 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9370 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/23022015AUDUSDH1-1024x586.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD this morning continues to trade within a five day range.
With the price action forming a double bottom above the 0.7630 level we require a penetration and sustained move above the 0.7875 level so as to maintain the current upside momentum.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7745 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/23022015GOLDH12.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold continues to trade lower with the price action this morning testing the 1191.65 support level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/23022015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The recent pullback has failed to see a sustained move beneath the US$ 50 per barrel level.
We need to see a successful retest of this level for a continuation of the down trend.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 52.50 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 24.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/24022015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With the February 28th deadline looming I would expect to see a resolution of this phase of Greek crisis to happen soon.
The price action is currently trading in a large 14 day range between 1.1300 and 1.1450.
A break of this range would potential give us a clue of the potential medium term directional momentum.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1450 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/24022015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Today’s inflation hearings should give us some insight the Bank of England’s outlook with respect to the timing of interest rate rises.
However with elections due in May any increases could be put on hold until after the election.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD has bounced off its channel bottom and is retesting last weeks highs.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5320 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/24022015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is this morning trading within a very narrow 6 day range.
Although the current price action is bullish we need a move above the 119.40 resistance level would confirm that a new up trend is under way.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/24022015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continues to trade higher following a bounce off its up channel.
I am this morning monitoring a potential test of the 0.9530 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9370 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/2402215AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD continues to trade within a daily range.
With the price action forming a double bottom above the 0.7630 level we require a penetration and sustained move above the 0.7875 level so as to maintain the current upside momentum.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7745 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/24022015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold continues to trade lower with the price action remaining within a tight down channel.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/24022015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With the price action having resumed its prior bearish bias I am monitoring the potential for a a retest of this years lows.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 52.50 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 25.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/25022015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterdays dovish testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman to the Senate has put the US Dollar this morning under pressure.
This news combined with the positive outcome to the Greek debt talks has sent the Euro higher in early trading.
The price action is currently trading in a large 14 day range between 1.1300 and 1.1450.
A break of this range would potential give us a clue of the potential medium term directional momentum.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1450 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/25022015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The Pound this morning is trading higher following a bounce off its channel bottom with the price action taking out last weeks high.
The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak this morning.
The market will await any comments he may have with respect to interest rates.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/24022015USDJPYH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday we did see USDJPY pop up above the 119.40 level.
However the dovish testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman Yellen slapped USDJPY down under this level.
Although the current price action is bullish we still need a move above the 119.40 resistance level would confirm that a new up trend is under way.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/25022015USDCHFH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDCHF broke the bottom of its up channel.
Although this is not sufficient to change the trend from up to down this is a strong warning sign that a reversal is on the cards.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9370 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/25022015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday AUDUSD experienced a strong upside reversal off the 0.7745 support level.
The bounce higher was accelerated by the news from the FOMC and the better than expected construction number.
The bounce higher has followed a double bottom that formed above the 0.7630 level with the move higher taking out the key 0.7875 resistance level.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7745 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/25022015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following a long downside correction Gold this morning has broken above its down channel.
We now require a move above the 1215.00 level as a confirmation that a rotation to the long side of the trade is under way.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/25022015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday:
With the price action having resumed its prior bearish bias I am monitoring the potential for a a retest of this years lows.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 50.35 level.
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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 27.02.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/27022015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s CPI data pushed traders to buy the US Dollar.
The effect was to push EURUSD through the bottom of its downward triangle and slash through the 1.1270 support level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1390 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/27022015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The decline in the Pound accelerated following the CPI data.
This pushed GBPUSD to the bottom of its upward channel.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off this level.
Alternatively a breach of the channel bottom would open up the possibility that we see lower prices for Cable.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/27022015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
We had lots of overnight data from Japan but this hardly moved the market.
As posted previously:
We did see USDJPY pop up above the 119.40 level.
However the dovish testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman Yellen slapped USDJPY down under this level.
Although the current price action is bullish we still need a move above the 119.40 resistance level would confirm that a new up trend is under way.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/27022015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continues to staircase higher.
We did get a bit of a sell off following the inflation data.
This has pushed the price action back into the direction of the channel bottom.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off this level.
Alternatively a breach of the channel bottom would open up the possibility that we see lower prices for USDCHF.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9450 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/27022015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The sell off against the US Dollar yesterday afternoon also effected the Aussie.
The price action collapsed to an area of strong support made up by two channel bottoms and a a prior weekly congestion level at 0.7800.
Buying has come into the market following the positive Private Sector Credit number.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off this level.
Alternatively a breach of the channel bottom would open up the possibility that we see lower prices for AUDUSD.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7910 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/27022015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted previously Gold continues to propel itself higher on speculation that buying is originating in China.
Following the CPI data Gold did experience a strong pull back however support was found at the 1206.00 level.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off this level.
Alternatively a breach of the 1206.00 level would open up the possibility that we see lower prices for Gold.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1201.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/27022015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
High volatility in the Oil price has had the effect of creating a fairly distinct downward channel.
With the trend continuing to be negative I will this morning monitoring the price action for any signs of weakness as the price action trades up to its channel top.
Alternatively a breach of the channel top would open up the possibility that we see higher prices for Oil.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 51.25 level.
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MORNING BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/0032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With all the main central banks due to make announcement and with it being NFP day this Friday it looks like to another volatile and hectic week in the life of a EURUSD trader.
The price action has now well and truly broken its triangle formation with this mornings price activity breaching Thursday’s low.
This opens up the possibility for a potential move down to the 1.1100 prior weekly swing level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1245 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/02032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With the Bank of England Governor due to speak tomorrow the markets will be looking for signs of any hawkishness on interest rate policy.
We have had a strong pull back to the 1.5400 level which has broken the down channel.
However I am not not convinced that the down trend will continue.
I really want to see a sustained move under the 1.5400 level.
This leads us back tomorrow and the tone and the areas of grey in Mr. Carney’s testimony.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/02032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
During Friday afternoon the Dollar bulls took control of the market and pushed USDJPY higher.
This move as continued into this morning with USDJPY testing and trading above the 119.80 level.
The recent price action has now created a fairly broad up channel.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.10 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/02032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The 0.9450 level did provide strong support and a base for higher prices which Friday’s price action testing last weeks high.
This mornings price action has completed the job by painting a new recent high and in the process creating a much more broader and potentially more sustainable up channel.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9450 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/02032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The markets would seem to have priced in a rate cut tomorrow by Australia Reserve Bank.
This could potentially be the reason behind the recent collapse in the value of the Aussie which has seen the price action breach the bottom of no less than two up channels.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7830 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/02032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold continues to trade higher in a staircase formation.
However the steepness of the up trend does cause me some concern.
I would therefore like to see a broadening of the up channel.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1204.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/02032015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday’s price action has had the effect of breaching the large down channel.
Although this type of price action could be seen as a warning signal that the down trend is about to reverse I would really need to see a successful retest of the 49.80 level being the area of the most recent isolated high to be convinced that a new up trend is underway.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 51.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/04032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD continues to trade in a pronounced down channel.
This has followed the break down from a large triangle formation
There is some support to be found at the 1.1150 level which needs to be overcome if the price action is to remain in the confines of its down channel.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1245 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/04032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday the Pound continues to trend in a bearish fashion today following the break down from its up channel.
However there is strong upside support at the 1.5300 area.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5455 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/04032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY overnight bounced off the area of its down channel bottom.
I require a move above this weeks high at 120.25 level to confirm that the up trend is continuing.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.40 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/04032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.
The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.
Due to the bullishness of this formation I will be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the current trend.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9450 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/04032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The increase in Australia GDP has helped push AUDUSD higher.
This followed yesterday’s surprise decision not to cut interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The price action is currently testing the 0.7830 resistance level.
A sustained move above this level will technically change the trend back to up.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7830 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/04032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
There has been an increase in market volatility following the break down from the small up channel.
Gold has now created two key points of interest.
These being long above 1223.00 and short beneath 1191.65.
Within this area there is a possibility that Gold will range.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1223.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/04032015CLJ5H11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil followed its breach of its down channel by trading above the last isolated low.
A continuation of the up move will require the price action to breach the 51.00 being Monday’s high.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.40 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/05032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With the ECB meeting kicking off today in Nicosia, Cyprus traders will be awaiting news from the press conference.
The impending European stimulus has helped push EURUSD lower and towards the significant 1.1000 level.
EURUSD continues to trade in a pronounced down channel.
This has followed the break down from a large triangle formation
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1215 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/05032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Traders will be looking ahead to today’s MPC statement and will be eager to gauge the Bank of England’s plans on when interest rate hikes will kick in.
The price action having broken under the 1.5300 support level GBPUSD is this morning trading under the 1.5245 prior monthly prior support level.
I am this monitoring the price action for a continuation of the downward momentum.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/05032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has bounced off its channel bottom with the price action appearing to be increasingly bullish.
I require a move above this weeks high at 120.25 level to confirm that the up trend is continuing.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.40 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/U05032015SDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.
The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.
Due to the bullishness of this formation I will be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the current trend.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9610 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/05032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
There has been a high degree of market volatility following the surprise decision not to cut interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The price action initially took a bearish stance as it broke under its up channel but this has been followed by choppy price action between the 0.7800 and the 0.7850 level.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7800 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/05032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
There has been an increase in market volatility following the break down from the small up channel.
As the longer term trend continues to point down I will be monitoring the price action for a further move lower.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/05032015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to experience a mini rally with the price action forming a fairly obvious up channel.
The move higher has also turned the four hour trend to up.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.50 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/06032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With the ECB confirming the date that Euro stimulus will begin the focus now falls on what is the next key level of support.
The obvious level be 1.1000. As it is NFP day good US job numbers combined with a pick up in average earnings could see this level being breached during today’s trading.
The recent activity has now formed two pronounced down channels around the price action.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1100 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/06032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The price action continues to trade within a fairly steep down channel.
GBPUSD having broken under the 1.5300 support level the price action is this morning trading under the 1.5245 prior monthly prior support level.
I am this monitoring the price action for a continuation of the downward momentum.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/06032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following the bounce of its channel bottom USDJPY has once again traded above the most recent isolated high.
With the trend being so bullish the expectation is that we continue to see higher prices.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.40 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/06032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.
The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.
Due to the bullishness of this formation I will be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the current trend.
However with news soon to be released by the SNB on the level of its foreign currency reserves there will be market interest on the level and pace of buying of the Euro by the Swiss central bank.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9610 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/06032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The Aussie Dollar continues to experience a great deal of market volatility.
This is partly driven by domestic news and partly by events in China.
With the price action now trading in a tight six day range we require resolution by the price action either sustaining a higher or lower break.
The US jobs numbers could give the market the jolt it needs.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7850 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/06032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted previously previously:
There has been an increase in market volatility following the break down from the small up channel.
As the longer term trend continues to point down I will be monitoring the price action for a further move lower.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/06032015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to experience a mini rally with the price action forming a fairly obvious up channel.
However this morning the price action is making an attempt to break down from its up channel.
That the price action is trending higher on the 4 hour chart and the attempting to paint a higher low on the daily does give the bulls some room to be optimistic.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.80 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/09032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Euro stimulus gets under the way today.
With the prospect of the ECB pumping into the Eurozone some EUR60 billion per month of fresh liquidity one can only anticipate what the longer terms effect this will have on the value of the Euro.
Friday’s NFP number well and truly pushed EURUSD through the 1.1000 floor.
The next support level being the 1.0760 level being a prior weekly swing point.
A breach of this level could see EURUSD test the 1.0600 level being a monthly trend line.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1100 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/09032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD dropped aggressively off the back of the US job data.
The price action continues to trade within a fairly steep down channel.
I am this monitoring the price action for a continuation of the downward momentum.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5260 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/09032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The continued rise of the US Dollar sent USDJPY on Friday through the 120.00 level.
Although there was a brief flirtation that saw the price action trade above the 121.00 level the price action subsequently experienced a minor correction.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a resumption of positive directional momentum.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.80 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/09032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday’s NFP news led to USDCHF experiencing an acceleration of the current up trend.
USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.
The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.
Due to the bullishness of this formation I will be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the current trend.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9715 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/09032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The US Jobs number pushed AUDUSD out of its congestion range and sent it lower.
A new down channel has now formed.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7850 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/09032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The prospects of higher US interest rates sent Gold lower on Friday.
However the aggressiveness of the move lower could open up the possibility that Gold experiences a good bounce.
As the longer term trend continues to point down I will be monitoring the price action for a further move lower.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1209.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/09032015CLJ5H11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday’s break down from the brief up channel that was created would indicate that the prior down trend has once again resumed.
However there is some optimism remaining for Oil Bulls with the price action on the daily chart having broken above the top if its large down channel.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 51.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/10032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The Euro continues to grind down lower and at one point in early morning trading breached the 1.0800 level.
However over the past hour we have seen EURUSD experience a minor bounce off this area.
A continuation of the move higher could see EURUSD trade back up to the the upper level of its shorter down channel and the 1.0915 resistance level.
However with the price action being so negative a continuation of the current down trend is a strong possibility.
The shorting of rallies will therefore most probably be the more logical option rather than to try to take pips from the long side of the trade.
The next support level being the 1.0760 level being a prior weekly swing point.
A breach of this level could see EURUSD test the 1.0600 level being a monthly trend line.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0915 level.
GBPUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/10032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Overnight GBPUSD traded back up to its channel top.
However this level appeared to be a good area for the Bears to add more short positions.
A continuation of the move down could see a second attempt to test the 1.5000 level.
However over the past hour GBPUSD has been attempting to penetrate its upper channel boundary.
A breach of this level could see GBPUSD paint a higher low formation that creates a base for higher prices.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5140 level.
USDJPY
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/1032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY continues to accelerate higher.
However the price action this morning is taking a breather at the 121.80 resistance level being a prior weekly swing point.
With the price action being so extended there is a possibility that we see some down to sideways corrective movement.
Alternatively with the trend being so bullish an attempt to sustain a move above the 121.80 level should not be ruled out.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.80 level.
USDCHF
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/10032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF got its break above the 0.9840 resistance level and is now testing the 0.9900 level.
With the price action however experiencing such a strong up move there is a possibility that USDCHF may find it difficult to sustain a move above the 0.9920 prior resistance level.
USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.
The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9840 level.
AUDUSD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/10032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The good China CPI numbers did nothing to bolster the AUDUSD as the price action continued to slump.
However we did get a bounce off the 0.7630 weekly level.
With the price action being so overly bearish there is a possibility that we get a corrective bounce back up to the channel top at the 0.7700 level.
However the Bears are obviously in control therefore the logic of shortening rallies would potentially be the more appropriate policy.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.
GOLD
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/10032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has continued to trade lower early in the European session.
However the price action is now testing a prior weekly support level at the 1157.00.
A penetration of this level could see Gold test the 1133.70 support level.
Alternatively with Gold being so overly bearish there is a possibility that we see a corrective pullback back up to the 1175.00 resistance level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1175.00 level.
OIL
(http://acfxacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/10032015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has experienced some messy price action following the break down from its mini up channel.
This stems from the confusion being created by the daily chart which is showing some signs of bullishness following the price action breaking above its down channel.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/11032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD continues with its downward drive as it tests the 1.0650 area.
With seemingly no bulls in sight it would appear that there is no stopping the Euro dropping towards the 1.0570 major support level.
A break of this level would alert the markets that a move to parity is on the cards.
However there are major hurdles in the form of weekly swing levels to be found at the 1.0340, 1.0210 and 1.0090 areas.
A bounce off support could see EURUSD retest the 1.0760 resistance level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0915 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/11032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s hawkish speech by the Bank of England boss has helped establish a base at the 1.5000 area.
This morning GBPUSD has broken above its down channel and painted a double bottom formation.
I am currently monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.5140 level.
Alternatively a resumption of the downward pressure could see GBPUSD reattempt to test the 1.5000 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5140 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/11032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDJPY experienced a strong bounce within its upward channel.
I am currently monitoring the price action for a test of yesterday’s high in the 122.00 area.
Alternatively there is still room for the price action to retest the channel bottom.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.80 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/11032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has experienced a remarkable recovery and this morning is trading above the 1.0000 parity level.
The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9840 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/11032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is experiencing some messy prices action as any minor rallies are slapped down by the bears.
As the price action being so overly bearish there is a possibility that we get a corrective bounce back up to the channel top.
However the Bears are obviously in control therefore the logic of shortening rallies would potentially be the more appropriate policy.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/11032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted previously Gold continues to bounce off the prior weekly support level at the 1157.00.
I am now monitoring a potential move back up the 1175.00 resistance level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1175.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/11032015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to trade lower this morning.
This is testing the patience of the Bulls who hoped that a daily upside channel break was a sign that a base was about to form.
However the daily break is still intact and there is a possibility that we do eventually see higher prices.
A move beneath the 47.80 level will negate this scenarios and put the control back firmly in the hands of the sellers.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/12032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD continued to trade lower.
However this morning EURUSD has found some support around the 1.0500 area and is experiencing a moderate bounce.
The area of 1.0500 to 1.0600 is significant.
The reason for this is that this area coincides with a prior weekly swing level and a multiple year trend line support.
This well established level of support could act as a catalyst for EURUSD to trade higher into the 1.0760 resistance level and the short length channel top.
However with the market being so bearish the lower risk policy would be to sell into strength.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0915 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/12032015nyGBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday the Pound took a bit of a tumble as the downward momentum accelerated.
However yesterday’s down move was halted at the 1.4885 weekly support level.
This morning GBPUSD is now experiencing a minor rally as the price action tests the 1.5000 level and its channel top.
A break above the down channel could see GBPUSD test the 1.5140 resistance level.
However with Cable trading in such an obvious down trend a potentially less riskier strategy would be to sell into strength.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5140 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/12032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The overnight better than expected Japan Consumer Confidence numbers has had the effect of limiting the rise of USDJPY.
This morning USDJPY is experiencing a strong sell off.
However with support in the form of the 120.70 weekly swing level and the channel bottom being fairly close and with the trend being so obviously bullish I would looking for a bounce off these areas.
Alternatively a penetration of the channel bottom could open up the possibility of a further decline down to the 119.80 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 120.70 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/12032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
What goes up must come down and this is the case with the Swissy.
USDCHF has this morning experienced at first site collapse from its lofty heights of 1.0125.
However there are two monthly support levels at the 0.9970 and 0.9920 to be overcome if the downward momentum is to continue.
Furthermore with the trend being so bullish buying into weakness such as this mornings dip lower could possibly offer profitable opportunities.
Alternatively the move down has been fairly dramatic therefore a continuation of this downward momentum could potentially take USDCHF to the area of the current price actions channel bottom.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9840 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/12032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Better than expected Australian employment numbers have give AUDUSD a strong boost during the early morning trade.
The move higher is now approaching the area of the 0.7700 resistance level and channel top.
Furthermore with the trend being so bearish selling into weakness such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.
However with the up move being fairly dramatic there is a possibility that the penetration of the channel top could act as a catalyst for a continuation of the move higher.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/12032015GOLDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold continues to staircase lower.
The move lower has taken the price action into the area of Novembers lows.
With the trend being so bearish selling into weakness such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.
However a test of the 1170.40 swing point could open up the possibility for a move towards the 1175.00 and the current price action channel top.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1175.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/12032015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil yesterday penetrated the recent 47.80 lower.
This has had the effect of expanding the down trending price channel.
However this morning the price action has penetrated above its minor channel top.
I am now monitoring the price action for a possible test of the 49.00 level.
With the trend being so bearish selling into weakness such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/16032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With EURUSD now trading under the significant 1.0500 to 1.0600 levels it looks increasing likely that an attempt to push EURUSD to parity will be made.
However there are many hurdles first need to be overcome in the form of three prior weekly support levels at the 1.0340, 1.0210, 1.0090 areas.
We may see a correction higher however thus far corrective rallies have been used as opportunities to short EURUSD and this would logically seem the most appropriate strategy to continue to pursue.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0685 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/16032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD this morning has experienced a mini rally .
However with the price action being so bearish a resumption of the down trend should not be discounted.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5000 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/16032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDJPY has traded back down to its channel bottom.
With the macro trend being so bullish this area could potential offer an ideal location to add longs.
However with the price action having also penetrated the channel bottom a move beneath the recent low in the 121.00 area could signal the beginning of a much stronger corrective pull back.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/16032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has experienced a strong bounce off the 0.9970 support area.
However the resulting up move was not able to penetrate the 1.0125 prior high.
With the price action now painting a double top there is a possibility that the up trend in USDCHF is done for now.
However we first need to see a penetration of the channel bottom and the 0.9970 support area to confirm this scenario.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/16032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has this morning broken above its down channel top.
Although technically this does not indicate a change of trend the break above the channel does signal the potential for further upside momentum.
However confirmation is now required that this up move will continue and this will happen if we see a sustained breached of the high at the 0.7740 level.
In the mean time with the trend continuing to be down the strategy of selling into strength could possibly offer profitable opportunities.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/16032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With Gold trading close to Novembers low which can be found at the 1133.70 level the price action over the past few days has been unable to breach the 1147.50 being the most recent low.
With a potential minor double bottom forming I am monitoring the price action for a potential move back up to the 1166.35 resistance level.
A breach of this level opens up the possibility of a continuation of the up move to the channel top at the 1175.00 level.
However with the trend being so bearish selling into strength such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1166.35 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/16032015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
News that storage capacity is now running low has added to the downward pressure Oil is experiencing.
Oil on Friday broke through the 46.75 level.
The breach of this level opens up the possibility for a test of the most recent low at 43.55 area.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 48.50 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/17032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With the markets awaiting news of tomorrows FOMC statement EURUSD has been trading higher due to speculation that the Federal Reserve will not drop the word “patient” as a policy making tool.
The price action is currently trading up to the its downward channel top.
With the market being so bearish thus far corrective rallies have been used as opportunities to short EURUSD and this would logically seem the most appropriate strategy to continue to pursue.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0685 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/17032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The UK budget is to be released tomorrow and Cable seems to be rising.
With this budget being the last before the next general election the possibility of give away’s being handed to the electorate and business could potential drive the Pound higher.
This morning GBPUSD has broken above its downward channel. This is an early indication that positive bias could be returning to the Pound.
However we I would like first to to see a weak pullback that fails to test the prior low of 1.4700 to happen before taking a further look at the long side of the trade.
That GBPUSD is trading in a very strong down trend the strategy that has worked thus far has been to sell into strength and this could possibly remain a profitable opportunity.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5000 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/17032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday USDJPY has traded back down to its channel bottom.
With the macro trend being so bullish this area could potential offer an ideal location to add longs.
However with the price action having also penetrated the channel bottom a move beneath the recent low in the 121.00 area could signal the beginning of a much stronger corrective pull back.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/17032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday USDCHF has experienced a strong bounce off the 0.9970 support area.
However the resulting up move was not able to penetrate the 1.0125 prior high.
With the price action now painting a double top there is a possibility that the up trend in USDCHF is done for now.
However we first need to see a penetration of the channel bottom and the 0.9970 support area to confirm this scenario.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/17032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD continues to trade above the top of its down channel.
Although technically this does not indicate a change of trend the break above the channel does signal the potential for further upside momentum.
However confirmation is now required that this up move will continue and this will happen if we see a sustained breached of the high at the 0.7740 level.
In the mean time with the trend continuing to be down the strategy of selling into strength could possibly offer profitable opportunities.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/17032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday Gold istrading close to Novembers low which can be found at the 1133.70 level the price action over the past few days has been unable to breach the 1147.50 being the most recent low.
With a potential minor double bottom forming I am monitoring the price action for a potential move back up to the 1166.35 resistance level.
A breach of this level opens up the possibility of a continuation of the up move to the channel top at the 1175.00 level.
However with the trend being so bearish selling into strength such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1166.35 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/1703215CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s move lower for Oil tested the US$43.57 level being the prior low of January 29.
This morning the price action is currently trading under this level at US$43.50.
With the price action being so bearish a continuation of the downward momentum is a possibility.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 44.75 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/18032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
It is Federal Reserve Statement day and the markets are expecting that the word patient is to be dropped.
However there is a growing concern over the strength of the US Dollar and this could limit the room of maneuver for the Fed Boss Jane Yellen to act.
In terms of price action EURUSD has painted a higher low and higher high swing which resulted in an initial test of the channel top.
That the price action is struggling to sustain an meaningful move beneath the 1.0600 level which lines up with multiple year support should give the bulls lots of encouragement.
Alternatively with the market being so bearish thus far corrective rallies have been used as opportunities to short EURUSD and this would logically seem the most appropriate strategy to continue to pursue.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0500 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/18032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has been trading above the 1.4700 level as traders await the UK’s annual budget.
The price action continues to hug the top of the down channel and it appears that there is an attempt to print a higher low formation.
A break out of the down channel could signal higher prices and an attempt to test the 1.4810 level.
Alternatively with the trend being so bearish selling into strength being could offer potential opportunities.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.4810 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/18032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted previously with USDJPY having broken above its recently formed down there is a strong possibility that we we a resumption of the prior up trend.
Confirmation that such a move is under way would require a break above the 121.50 level.
Alternatively a move back into the down channel followed by a breach of the last isolated low at 121.08 level could signal a continuation of lower prices.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/18032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday USDCHF has this morning broken down from a converging triangle formation.
The move lower has traded under the 1.0020 has technically changed the trend to down.
However with the prior up trend being so bullish I am monitoring the price action as it now tests the channel bottom as this area could offer significant support.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/18032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Although AUDUSD has broken above its down channel we have yet to see any follow through.
The price action has now consolidated within a a tight triangle formation.
I will be today monitoring the price action for tests of the triangle pattern as this could indicate the direction of the next move.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/18032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has broken its converging triangle formation to the down side.
With the trend being so bearish I am monitoring the price action for a possible continuation of the downward momentum.
However as posted previously Gold is trading close to November’s low which can be found at the 1133.70 level and this could offer considerable support.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1166.35 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/18032015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
OILUSD is finding it increasingly difficult to trade higher with every corrective rally slammed down hard by the bears.
With the price action being so bearish a continuation of the downward momentum is a possibility.
This afternoons Crude Oil Inventory report could add further downward pressure on the price of Oil.
Oil is now entering territory not seen since the last financial crisis with support levels at the US$40.85 level and there are still no bulls in sight to stem this tide.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 44.75 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
There has been over the past few trading sessions a rotation back into the Euro and this could have been seen by the higher low and higher high formation and the subsequent break in the channel top.
However yesterday’s Fed statement had a huge impact on the Forex markets as the modification of strategy meant that interest policy continues to remains dovish had the affect of sending EURUSD higher.
The strength and scale of the move higher sent EURUSD breaking through the long dated channel top.
However the price action was unable to sustain the move higher and has during this morning’s trading has retraced significantly.
This mornings pull back was needed and to be expected. However there has been a broad market shift into the Euro with positive flows coming from AUD, CAD, GBP, JPY, NZD, SGD, TRY and Gold. This leads me to believe that the move higher has legs to go further.
Especially as the strong multiple year support that was highlighted in prior articles at the 1.0570/1.0600 level has held.
There is of course always an alternative view that yesterday’s price action was just a very oversold market letting off some steam and that selling into rallies should continue to be the strategy of choice. We will have the answer to this question if EURUSD can breech the 1.0550 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0550 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19032015GBPUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Much like the Euro, Cable yesterday experienced a stellar rally that sent it on a massive move higher.
With the price action having broken above the prior isolated swing high the 1 hour trend is firmly bullish.
There has been a a correct pullback this morning and this was to be expected.
However as long as GBPUSD can stay above the 1.4635 level the 1 hour trend remains positive.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4635 level
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The Fed statement sent USDJPY lower in what can be describes as a V bottom formation.
The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel top.
This is an areas where the Bears will test the resolve of the Bulls to push USDJPY higher.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
What I wrote for USDJPY equally applies to USDCHF.
The Fed statement sent USDCHF lower in what can be describes as a V bottom formation.
The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel top.
This is an areas where the Bears will test the resolve of the Bulls to push USDCHF higher.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0125 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The AUDUSD this morning naturally looks like a mirror image of what has happen to USDCHF and USDJPY
The Fed statement sent AUDUSD higher from its triangle consolidation pattern.
The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel bottom.
This is an areas where the Bulls will test the resolve of the Bears to push AUDUSD lower.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19032015GOLDH12.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The news that the Federal Reserve was not raising interest rates any time soon pushed Gold higher.
The price action penetrated the upper level of its down channel.
The subsequent pull back has been limited with Gold experiencing a minor correction.
I will therefore this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of the uptrend and a possible penetration of this mornings high at the 1175.00 level.
Alternatively if Gold cannot hold above the 1166.35 level there is a possibility that we see a pullback down to the 1157.00 congestion area.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1147.50 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19032015CLJ5H11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Of all the pairs that I follow Oil had the least impressive rally.
Yes the price action did spike above a prior isolated high and yes the price action penetrated the small down channel but move higher was not as impressive as what we saw in the Euro, Pound, Gold and Aussie.
To really be convinced that this move higher has some gas in the tank I would like first to see a successful retest of the yesterday’s high at the US$45.30 level.
A continuation of the move lower and a breach of the 42.00 level would firmly wipe out any hopes of a rally in Oil.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 42.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/20032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With the FOMC meeting over after it delivered a great deal of market volatility the markets today are now focused on day 2 of the European Union summit.
The FOMC meeting and its after affects has changed the 1 hour trend to up.
There is strong support in the 1.0560/1.0600 area due to a multiple year trend line.
Confirmation that the new up trend is intact will require a successful retest of the large down channel.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0550 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/20032015GBPUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With the price action having broken its recent down channel I am this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of Wednesday evenings up move.
Alternatively a breach of the 1.4635 would wipe out all the gains made and change the 1 hour trend back to down.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4635 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/20032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has traded back up to the top of the down channel.
This is an area where USDJPY could potentially find resistance and be a catalyst for a resumption of the recent down trend.
Alternatively a breach of yesterday’s high in the 121.00 area could technically change the trend from down to up.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/20032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has tested and is this morning trading above the top of its down channel.
For the trend to change back to up we require a sustained move above the 0.9970 level.
Alternatively with USDCHF hugging its channel top there is a possibility that the prices action resumes is downward direction.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/20032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD experienced a strong bounce off its 0.7610 support level.
For a continuation of the move to be maintained the price action needs to trade back into its up channel.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/20032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold continues to trade above the down channel top.
A breach of yesterday’s high is required for confirmation that the up trend is intact.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1159.50 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/20032015CLJ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil managed to stay above the top of its down channel and has painted a higher low.
We now require a move above Wednesdays high of US$45.30 to confirm the up trend.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 42.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/24032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Has Merkel and Tsipras found enough common ground allow them to bury their differences?
We should find out over the coming days.
However EURUSD has been acting very positively over the past few days.
Is this due to the FOMC’s Janet Yellen putting interest rate hikes on hold or is it due to the end game being in sight for the current Greek crisis.? Probably a bit of both.
However as long as the Euro keeps trading higher why fight the momentum?
EURUSD is now trading in a staircase pattern as the price action paints higher lows and higher highs.
That the price action is above it price channels is also very bullish.
I still want to see a breach of the 1.1035 level as upside bias confirmation.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0760 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/24032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Not all that much has happened overnight.
GBPUSD having broken above its down channel experienced a strong pullback.
However support was found at the 1.4700 level and this was a catalyst for a strong bounce.
A move above the 1.5165 level being Wednesday’s high would confirm that the up trend is intact.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4700 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/24032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With USDJPY now experiencing a strong downward correction trying to find the next major support level becomes a priority.
There are minor support levels at the 119.40, 119.10 and 118.70 however there is a weekly swing level at the 118.25 level.
This level could act as a target for the sellers to trade into.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.15 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/24032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Having retested the 0.9970 area USDCHF once again reverted its downward momentum.
A move that breaches the 0.9610 level would confirm that the down trend is in good health.
However this level coincides with a prior monthly swing level and an area that could offer considerable support to USDCHF.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9810 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/24032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
All I would like to say is that I feel a great deal of satisfaction when the technical tools I use consistently worked.
This is the case when AUDUSD yesterday bounced off the area of its channel bottom.
Take a look at yesterday’s Aussie analysis.
http://academy.acfx.com/market-briefing-london-open-23-03-2015/
With the price action trading higher the next major target is the 0.8000 level which coincides with a prior monthly swing point.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7760 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/24032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With the breach the 1182.20 level Gold is now knocking on the door of another prior weekly swing level at the 1191.65.
The move higher has been near vertical which leads me to believe that we might see some down to sideways corrective price action.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1182.20 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/24032015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has traded within a large consolidation pattern following the news from the FOMC.
With the longer term trends being so bearish I am monitoring the price action for a potential breakdown from this pattern.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 45.30 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/25032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD yesterday attempted to test the 1.1035 level but failed to break above this price
Although the price has painted a series of higher lows and higher highs there is a necessity to trade above the 1.1035 level for the up trend to be maintained.
That the price action is above it price channels is also very bullish.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0760 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/25032015GBPUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With UK inflation data once again dropping off the prospects of an interest rise becomes less and less likely.
The up move following last weeks break out has stalled somewhat with the price action consolidating within a tight range.
A breach of the 1.5000 level will confirm the upside bias whereas a break down under the 1.4810 level would put the downside bias back into focus.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4810 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/25032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDJPY did continue to trade lower but experienced a good bounce off the 119.40 area.
With a possibility of a minor double bottom forming there is the potential for a move back up to the 120.15 resistance level which coincides with the top of the down channel.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.15 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/25032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF did breach the 0.9610 monthly support level.
I am this morning monitoring a pull back towards this level for signs a weakness coming back into the trade.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9810 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/25032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Over the past three business days AUDUSD has painted a minor topping head an shoulders pattern.
This pattern could be the sign that AUDUSD could experience a substantial downward correction.
Alternatively an inability for the price action to move lower could open up the door to a retest of the 0.7910 level being this weeks high.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7760 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/25032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday the breach the 1182.20 level Gold is now knocking on the door of another prior weekly swing level at the 1191.65.
The move higher has been near vertical which leads me to believe that we might see some down to sideways corrective price action.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1182.20 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/25032015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil yesterday attempted to break up from its consolidation pattern.
However the price action could not sustain higher prices.
This morning Oil has penetrated the lows of its very narrow down channel.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of support at the 46.75.
However the penetration of the channel bottom could turn out to be a fake break down that acts as a catalyst to push Oil higher.
With the weekly crude report out this afternoon we may see an increase in volatility during the day.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 46.75 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/26032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning EURUSD is attempting to trade above last weeks high as the price action tests the 1.1000 / 1.1050 level.
A move above these levels would confirm the health of the up trend and establish a broad upward trend channel.
Alternatively a breach of the 1.0900 level would take the price action under the prior isolated low and change the trend from up to down.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0900 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/26032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD having broken above its down channel continues to trade within a tight consolidation range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action with key range / break out levels being 1.4800 / 1.5000.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4800 level
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/26032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning we have witness a dramatic drop off in the price of USDJPY as the price rapidly approaches the 118.50 /118.00 levels.
With the trend being so bearish shorting corrective rallies could off possible profitable opportunities.
Alternatively a sustained corrective rally could see USDJPY test the 119.25 level which corresponds to the area of the Channel top.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.00 level.
UDSCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/26032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The USDCHF is taking USDJPY’s lead and trading lower.
The price action is this morning attempting to test the 0.9550 level which comes in at the area of a prior isolated daily swing low.
A continuation of the move lower takes USDCHF into the area of the 0.9500 big figure.
A failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9600 level which corresponds to a prior monthly swing level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9800 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/26032015AUDUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning AUDUSD did breach the isolated low of 0.7850 level.
This move technical changed the trend from up to down.
However the secondary price filter being the channel bottom and the prior monthly swing level of 0.7800 gave support to AUDUSD and has acted as a catalyst for a strong bounce higher.
A breach of the 0.7900 would signify that this down move was a fake break down.
Alternatively a failure to breach the 0.7900 could create downward pressure and force a retest of the 0.7800 level.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7900 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/26032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This mornings move higher has propelled Gold towards the 1221.00 prior weekly swing level.
The move higher has also helped establish a more sustainable albeit still steep up channel.
Following 3 hours of solidly higher prices I am this morning monitoring the price action for the possibility of sideways to down corrective price action.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1187.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/26032015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has traded higher off the back of geo-political and strategic tensions presently affecting the Arabian Peninsula.
The move higher has created a steep up channel.
Following such a strong up move I am this morning monitoring the price action for the possibility of sideways to down corrective price action.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 47.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/27032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
During the afternoon trade EURUSD broke down from upward channel and breached the 1.0900 support level.
There was a brief consolidation during the overnight session however the sell off in EURUSD has now resumed as traders arrive at their desks in London and other major European centers.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/27032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning GBPUSD has opened negatively with the price action testing the 1.4800 prior monthly swing level.
I am this morning monitoring the price action with key range / break out levels being 1.4800 / 1.5000.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4800 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/27032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following yesterday’s bounce off the 118.50 areas USDJPY has traded higher as it tests the 119.25 resistance level.
A breach of this level could see USDJPY trade up to the top of its down channel.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/27032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The move above the 0.9600 level has technical changed the trend from down to up.
This has been followed by a breach above move above the current down channel.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/27032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With yesterday morning’s breach the isolated low of 0.7850 level has changed the 1 hour trend for AUDUSD from up to down.
This has been followed by further breaches of the 0.7800 support level and the channel bottom.
The move lower has come off a bounce from the top of a long dated down channel.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7900 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/27032015GOLDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning Gold has broken the bottom of its up channel and is trading under the 1201.00 support level.
The breach of this level has technically changed the trend from up to down.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/27032015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday Oil has traded higher off the back of geo-political and strategic tensions presently affecting the Arabian Peninsula.
The move higher has created a steep up channel.
Following such a strong up move Oil has back down towards it channel bottom,
I am this morning monitoring the price action for the possibility of a bounce from this area.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 47.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/30032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD broke down from upward channel and proceeded to trade to the 1.0800 level.
A successful retest of the 1.0800 level would confirm the current down trend.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/30032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning GBPUSD has opened negatively with the price action testing the 1.4800 prior monthly swing level.
I am this morning monitoring the price action with key range / break out levels being 1.4800 / 1.5000.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4800 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/30032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has experienced a good rally since Thursday.
This morning USDJPY has continued with the positive theme by trading above the top of its down channel.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/30032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has experienced a good rally since Thursday.
This morning USDCHF has continued with the positive theme by trading above the top of its down channel.
The move above the 0.9600 level has technical changed the trend from down to up.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/30032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The breach the isolated low of 0.7850 level has changed the 1 hour trend for AUDUSD from up to down.
This has been followed by further breaches of the 0.7800 support level and the channel bottom.
The move lower has come off a bounce from the top of a long dated down channel.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7900 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/30032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has broken the bottom of its up channel and is trading under the 1201.00 support level.
The breach of this level has technically changed the trend from up to down.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1206.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/30032015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil on Friday was not able to bounce off the bottom of its up channel.
What followed on Thursday was a strong correction that has pushed Oil in the direction of the 47.00 support area.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 47.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.03.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/31032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday EURUSD broke down from upward channel and proceeded to trade to the 1.0800 level.
A successful retest of the 1.0800 level has confirmed the current down trend.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0950 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/31032015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning GBPUSD has opened negatively with the price action trading under the 1.4800 prior monthly swing level.
A breach of the 1.4750 level being yesterdays low could possibly add further downside pressure to the trade.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.4925 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/31032015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY continued to trade higher following the upside penetration of its down channel.
The move higher led to a successful test of Friday’s intraday swing high of 119.48.
The breach of this most recent isolated high has technically changed the trend from down to up.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/31032015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continued to trade higher following the upside penetration of its down channel.
The move higher led to a successful test of Friday’s intraday swing high of 0.9691.
The breach of this most recent isolated high has technically changed the trend from down to up.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9550 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/31032015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday the breach the isolated low of 0.7850 level has changed the 1 hour trend for AUDUSD from up to down.
This has been followed by further breaches of the 0.7800 support level and the channel bottom.
The move lower has come off a bounce from the top of a long dated down channel.
I am this morning monitoring the price action as it approaches the 0.7600 support area.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7900 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/31032015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday Gold has broken the bottom of its up channel and is trading under the 1201.00 support level.
The breach of this level has technically changed the trend from up to down.
I am this morning monitoring the price action as it approaches the 1175.00 / 1166.00 support area.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1209.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/31032015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With talks continuing into today between Iran and the six nation contact group, the possibility of agreement being reached over this country’s nuclear programme could be a green light to the lifting of economic sanctions.
With Iran oil exports currently being hit by sanctions the very idea that such a large petroleum producer adding supply to the market could act as a catalyst for lower prices.
I expect today’s trading to be erratic and volatile.
As posted yesterday, Oil on Friday was not able to bounce off the bottom of its up channel.
What followed on Thursday was a strong correction that has pushed Oil in the direction of the 47.00 support area.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 47.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/02042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning’s price action has seen EURUSD breach the 1.0800 resistance level.
As this level coincides with the last prior isolated high technically this changes the trend from down to up.
However it is still relatively early in the up move and I would need to see the price action remain above the 1.0700 level to be convinced that we will continue to see higher prices.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0700 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/02042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD continues to trade within a fairly narrow range.
With political events now coming to the fore in the UK we may see this kind of price action continue up to the May 7 general election.
Traders will also be looking out for trends in the opinion polls and for traditional Political faux pas that we have become accustomed to during the election period.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.4885 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/02042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY failed to breach the prior 120.00 resistance level and subsequently fell back to the 119.50 support area.
If USDJPY can hold above the 119.50 level we may probably see a retest of the 120.25 area.
Alternatively a breach of the 119.50 area could act as a catalyst for USDJPY to move down to the 119.00 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/02042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s penetration of the 0.9680 level coincided with a breach of the breach of the prior isolated low.
This has technical changed the trend from up to down.
A successful test of the 0.9600 level act as down trend confirmation.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9750 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/02042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has continued to trade lower withe the breach of the 0.7600 level re-confirming the move.
The next major downside target being 0.7550 level which coincides with the prior daily swing low.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7650 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/02042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold’s yesterday spiked higher.
The move breached the 1192.00 area which coincides with the prior isolated weekly high.
This move has resulted in the the trend changing from down to up.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1180.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/02042015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil yesterday spiked higher.
The move breached the 48.50 area which coincides with the prior isolated 1 hour high.
This move has resulted in the the trend changing from down to up.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 47.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/06042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Fridays bad NFP number weakened the US Dollar.
This has led to EURUSD approaching the prior recent high of 1.1050.
The recent price action has seen EURUSD breach the 1.0800 resistance level.
As this level coincides with the last prior isolated high technically this changes the trend from down to up.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.1050 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0725 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/06042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday’s NFP data sent GBPUSD higher.
The resulting price action saw GBPUSD trade above the 1.4885 resistance level.
This move has technically changed the trend from down to up.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5000 resistance level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4750 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/06042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following Friday’s US jobs number USDJPY broke down from its 119.50 support level.
The move beneath this level has technically changed the trend from up to down.
This morning I am monitoring the price action as it tests the 119.00 support level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/06042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
The penetration of the 0.9680 level coincided with a breach of the breach of the prior isolated low.
This has technical changed the trend from up to down.
Friday’s US Labor news has seen USDCHF retest the 0.9500.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest or bounce off the 0.9500 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9600 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/06042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD experience a strong rally on Friday.
This came off the back of the bad US jobs number.
A breach of 0.7650 level has changed the trend from down to up.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest or bounce lower off the 0.7650 level.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7550 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/06042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has open higher with a gap as it tests the recent 1221.00 high.
A breach of this level will confirm the strength of the up trend.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce of or break above the 1221.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1195.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/06042015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted previously the breach of the 48.50 area which coincides with the prior isolated 1 hour high.
This move has resulted in the the trend changing from down to up.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 50.50 level
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 48.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/07032015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Overnight EURUSD moved lower on technical trading.
However following Monday’s strong performance in US indices the outlook for today at least looks to remain “Risk On”.
I am this morning monitoring the price action at the 1.0900 and 1.0950 levels.
A break above or beneath these levels could potentially signal the direction of prices.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0725 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/07042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday the breach of the the 1.4885 resistance level. has technically changed the trend from down to up.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5000 resistance level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4800 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/07042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s move above the 119.00 led to the price action trading above the prior swing high.
Technically this has changed the trend from down to up.
This morning I am monitoring the price action as it tests the 120.00 resistant level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.75 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/07042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s move above the 0.9550 led to the price action trading above the prior swing high.
Technically this has changed the trend from down to up.
This morning I am monitoring the price action as it tests the 0.9600 resistant level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/07042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This mornings RBA rate decision caused AUDUSD to spike higher.
The move above the 0.7650 led to the price action trading above the prior swing high.
Technically this has changed the trend from down to up.
This morning I am monitoring the price action as it tests the 0.7700 resistant level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7575 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/07042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday traded lower and has now partially field Mondays gap.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the the 1221.00 resistance level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1195.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/07042015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday Oil traded higher and broke through the 50.50 level.
As posted previously the breach of the 48.50 area which coincides with the prior isolated 1 hour high.
This move has resulted in the the trend changing from down to up.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 52.50 level
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 48.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/08042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD traded lower as value hunters looked to purchase the US Dollar ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes.
However the move lower was stop at the 1.0800 area,
This morning I am monitoring the price for a bounce back up to the 1.0900 level or retest of the 1.0800 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0725 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/08042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD traded lower as it broke through the 1.4885 level.
However the move lower was eventually held at the 1.4800 level which coincides with a prior monthly pivot.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a move back towards the 1.4885 level or a retest of the 1.4800 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4800 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/08042015USDJPYH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDJPY attempted to trade above the prior 120.25 high but was unable to sustain a move above this level.
This morning USDJPY has traded lower it what has been a fairly aggressive move down.
The initial move higher has resulted in the formation of a broad up trend channel.
I am this morning morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of lower prices that takes USDJPY back down to the 119.50 support area that coincides with the channel bottom.
Alternatively a drop off in downside momentum could see USDJPY retest the 120.00 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.75 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/08042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF continued to trade higher as the price action broke above its down channel.
However the move was held at the 0.9700/0.9680 resistance level.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of 0.9680 level as this corresponds to the most recent isolated high.
Alternatively USDCHF could trade back to the 0.9600 support level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/08042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday AUDUSD retested but could not sustain a move above the 0.7700 level.
This lead to AUDUSD trading back down into and testing the 0.7650 support level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a a retest of the 0.7700 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see AUDUSD trade back down to the 0.7650 support level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7575 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/08042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday traded lower as it came of its recent highs.
The price action has now approached the 1209.00 support level which corresponds to the channel bottom.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off this support area.
Alternatively a breach of this support zone could see Gold trade back down the 1195.00 support level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1195.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/08042015CLK5H11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has experience a stellar rally with the price action yesterday painting a new recent high.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 54.00 level being yesterdays high.
Alternatively a breach of the 52.50 support level could see Oil trade back down to its channel bottom.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 51.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/09042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD initially traded higher however the price action was not able to sustain its gains and broke down prior to the release of the FOMC minutes.
The move below the 1.0800 level has breached the prior isolated low.
This move has technically changed the trend from up to down.
I am this morning monitoring price for a possible test the 1.0750 support level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0900 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/09042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD attempted to test the high of the week at 1.4980 level but failed to break above it.
With the UK heading into a general election the price action has become very choppy.
This could be related to the political uncertainty. However the election is a little under a month away. For such volatility to enter the GBPUSD so early in the election period could indicate a continuation of this very choppy price action.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a move back towards the 1.5000 level or a retest of the 1.4800 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4800 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/09042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
During yesterday morning session USDJPY traded lower only reverse in the early afternoon.
This morning USDJPY I am monitoring the price action for a retest of this weeks high at the 120.50 area.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade back down to its channel bottom.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/09042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF traded down to its 0.9600 support level.
However this monthly swing level proved to be too powerful as the price action bounced higher.
This morning USDCHF has made a new weekly high as it tests the 0.9680 level.
A breach of the 0.9680/0.9700 level could see USDCHF trade up to the 0.9750 level.
Alternatively USDCHF a failure to breach the 0.9680 level could see USDCHF move back toward the 0.9600 support level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9600 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/09042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD continues to staircase higher as the price action experiences an upside correction.
A breach of the weekly high at the 0.7730 level is required to confirm the up trend is intact.
Alternatively a failure to breach the 0.7730 level could see AUDUSD test today’s low and the 0.7650 support level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7650 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/09042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday traded under the 1209.00 level and its channel bottom.
The move beneath the 1209.00 level also breached the prior isolated low and has resulted in a change of trend from up to down.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move lower and a break beneath the 1192.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure breach of this support zone could see Gold trade back up to the 1215.00 resistance level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/09042015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil experienced a dramatic slide yesterday.
The move beneath the 51.00 level which coincides with the prior swing low has technically changed the trend from up to down.
However the price action is now bouncing higher off its channel bottom.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce of the channel bottom.
Alternatively a breach of the channel bottom and a break below the 50.50 level could see Oil trade substantially lower.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 54.00 level
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/1004EURUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD spiked to the new monthly lows, as the U.S. Unemployment claims numbers came stronger than expected.
The pair is has formed downtrend channel since this Monday and since then is following it precisely, touching new monthly lows of 1.0620 this morning. 1.0600 level is to be targeted shortly before the likely downtrend resumption.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0900 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/1004GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD this morning has slided even further on the background of the disappointing U.K. trade balance numbers and stronger than expected U.S. Unemployment Claims report yesterday.
The pair has reached new lows of 1.4670 this morning, without any a hint for a reversal or retracement at the moment.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.4800 level
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/1004USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Last night the USDJPY has reached new highs of 120.72, on the backgorund of the further strenghtening U.S. currency
The pair is likely to retest 120.70 resistance level shortly. Alternatively 120.35 point will be traded, with subsequent target of the bottom of the channel and support of 120.00.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/1004USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continue the move higher, reaching new high of 0.9790 this morning.
In case 0.9800 level will be breached successfully, the pair will be likely to target 0.9870 resistance next.
Alternatively the support of 0.9750 might be again retested, before the pair returns to 0.9680 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9600 level
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/1004AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has lost the momentum after strengthening for for a week.
The pair is still trading within the upward channel, however the short term head and shoulders pattern might indicate that reversal is to follow.
The closest support to be traded is of 0.7650. Alternatively, 0.7750 could be tested again.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7650 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/1004GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
After breaking the upward trend channel the Gold price is consolidating below 1200.00 region.
If the breach of 1195.00 is unsuccessful, 1209.00 resistance level is the next likely point the Gold will be testing, before deciding on the move further.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/1004CLK5H11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has broken the upward trend channel and continues to move lower towards 49.80 support this morning.
The move is likely to head towards 49.00 support. Alternatively 52.00 resistance will be once more retested.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 54.00 level
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/13042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday EURUSD continued to trader lower.
The move lower has taken EURUSD back down to a major multiple month trend line and monthly support level at the 1.0550 area.
A breach of this area and the 1.0500 level opens up the possibility for move down to parity.
Alternatively a bounce off support could see EURUSD trade back up to the 1.0900 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0900 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/13042014GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
With election uncertainty gripping the markets the Pound continues to drift lower.
GBPUSD is this morning attempting to breach the 1.4600 support level.
A breach of this level opens up clear are for a move down to the 1.4250 level.
Alternatively a bounce off this level could see GBPUSD trade back up to the 1.4800 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.4980 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/1304215USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDJPY experienced a mild pullback.
However this morning buyer have come back into the market when USDJPY tested the 120.00 level.
I am this morning monitoring a potential test of the 120.70 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test its channel bottom.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 120.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/13042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continues to trade higher with the price action taking out the recent top at the 0.9750 level.
USDCHF did experience a minor pull back into the 0.9800 support area.
However it would appear that the price action has stabilized and has once again resumed its upward momentum with a target being at least Fridays high at the 0.9835 /0.9850 area.
Alternatively USDCHF fails to hold above this mornings low could see a move down to the 0.9750 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9600 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/1304215AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has collapsed this morning following the release of Chinese data.
With the momentum being so bearish there is a possibility that the 0.7550 support level is breached.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see AUDUSD trade back up to the 0.7700 resistance level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7750 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/13042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold did trade lower as it broke down from it up channel.
However the price action found support at the 1192.00 level.
This level acted as a catalyst for Gold to bounce higher.
The resulting move led Gold to breach its isolated high of 1202.50 and change the trend back to up.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1209.00 level.
Alternatively a failure breach of this resistance level see Gold trade back down to the 1192.00 support level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1192.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/1304215CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has experienced some choppy price action following last weeks corrective pullback.
The 50.50 level has acted as good support.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of Thursdays high and a continuation to the 54.00 level.
Alternatively a breach of the 50.50 support level could see Oil trade back down to 49.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 50.50 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/15042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Disappointing US Retail Sales data sent EURUSD higher during yesterday’s afternoon trading.
The move higher however found initial resistance at the 1.0700 level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of this level and a possible continuation of the move to the channel top which coincides with the 1.0750 level.
Alternatively a breach of this mornings low in the 1.0600 area could see EURUSD trade down to major support in the 1.0550 area.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0700 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/15042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD continues to trade higher as it surged past the 1.4700.
The move above his level coincides with the prior isolated high technically changes the trend from down to up.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.4800 level
Alternatively a breach of the 1.4750 support level could see GBPUSD trade down to the 1.4650 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4600 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/15042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY traded lower in afternoon trading.
The breach of the 120.00 level which coincides with the an isolated low has technically changed the trend from up to down.
The move lower has also slashed through channel support.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 119.50 level and a continuation of the move down to 119.00.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move under the 119.50 level could see USDJPY retest the 120.00 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.00 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/15042014USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF yesterday broke down from its up channel.
The breach of the 0.9770 level which coincides with the an isolated low has technically changed the trend from up to down.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.9700 level.
Alternatively a move above the 0.9750 resistance level could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9800 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9800 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/15042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has experienced a choppy couple of sessions but remains above the 0.7550 support level.
The overnight data from China may add some downside pressure on AUDUSD.
I am this morning monitoring the prices action for tests of 0.7650 and 0.7550.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7550 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/15042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday broke under its 1192.00 support level.
The breach of this level which coincides with the an isolated low has technically changed the trend from up to down.
The price action has now formed a rather steep down channel.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a move away from the 1192.00 support level and a possible test of the 1182.00 level.
Alternatively a bounce off the 1192 level could see Gold trade up to the 1209.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1209.00 level
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/15042015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to add to its impressive gains and this morning is trading above last weeks high of 54.00.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move higher.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to its channel bottom.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 51.50 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/16042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has continued its mini rally with the move above the 1.0700 level technically changing the 1 hour trend from down to up.
However this morning EURUSD slammed into the 1.0700 resistance level which is formed by the upper level of the down channel and the prior intraday isolated high.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.0070 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see EURUSD trade back down to the 1.0670 support level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0670 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/16042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD continues to trade higher as it briefly moved above the 1.4850.
With GBPUSD continuing to trade in an up trend I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.4850 level
Alternatively a breach of the 1.4800 level could see GBPUSD trade down to the 1.4700 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4700 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/16042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY experienced a strong sell off yesterday.
However a small double bottom formed above the 118.75 support level and this acted as a catalyst to send USDJPY higher.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 119.75 level and a continuation of the move down to 119.00.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY restest 119.00 and 118.75 levels.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 119.75 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/16042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF yesterday trade lower.
However this morning support has been found at the 0.9600 level which coincides with a prior monthly swing point.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.9700 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDCHF retest the 0.9600 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9750 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/16042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD spiked higher in what was an impressive up move.
However the price action found strong resistance as the top of its down channel.
I am this morning monitoring the prices action for a retest of the 0.7750 level and the channel top.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see AUDUSD trade back down to the 0.7700 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7550 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/16042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday broke above it narrow down channel and traded back up to the the area of the 1209.00 resistance area.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1209.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade above the 1209.00 level could see Gold trade back down to the 1192.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1209.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/16042015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s news from the International Energy Agency that OPEC was producing 2.5m barrels more oil than is actually needed did nothing to dampen the recent rise in the value of this commodity.
On the contrary the market seemed to take its queue from the Crude Oil Inventories report which showed a massive reduction in stockpiles from 10.9M to 1.3M.
Oil is now trading above both the daily and weekly swing high of 54.90.
This move has technical changed the the trend for both these time frames from down to up.
Although this move is significant there is a need to study closely the strength of any subsequent pull back before any firmer assessment on the strength of this move can be reached.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move higher and a retest of the 56.50 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to its channel bottom in he are of 54.00.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 51.50 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/17042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has continued higher and yesterday slashed through the 1.0700 level.
However yesterday’s rally was held a the 1.0800 area.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.0800 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see EURUSD trade back down to the 1.0700 support level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0625 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/17042015GBPUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD continued its impressive rally yesterday.
The move higher has now paired the majority of last weeks decline.
With GBPUSD continuing to trade in an up trend I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.5000 level
Alternatively a failure to breach of the 1.5000 level could see GBPUSD trade down to the 1.4800 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4810 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/17042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDJPY is finding support at the 118.80 area.
A move beneath this level is required as confirmation that the down trend is intact.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off the 118.80 area and a move higher into the direction of the 119.50 area.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY restest 118.80 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 119.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/17042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF yesterday continued to trade lower.
However this morning support has been found at the 0.9550 level.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.9600 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDCHF retest the 0.9500 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9710 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/17042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD yesterday broke above its down channel top.
This move followed a triple bottom formation on the daily and double bottom formation on the weekly charts.
I am this morning monitoring the prices action for a retest of the 0.7820 level being yesterdays high.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see AUDUSD trade back down to the 0.7750 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7550 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/17042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold over the past few days has traded in a rather sloppy fashion.
However the bigger picture does seem bullish with last weeks pin bar attempting to replicate itself with this weeks price action.
The extent of how bullish or bearish this week will end will only be known with the conclusion of today’s trading.
However there does seem to be a great deal of support forming on the daily chart around the 1180 area.
Will this be a base for the creation of a broad multiple period up trend? We first need to see Gold trade above the April high of 1224.00.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1209.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade above the 1209.00 level could see Gold trade back down to the 1192.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1209.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/17042015CLK5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday the news from the International Energy Agency that OPEC was producing 2.5m barrels more oil than is actually needed did nothing to dampen the recent rise in the value of this commodity.
On the contrary the market seemed to take its queue from the Crude Oil Inventories report which showed a massive reduction in stockpiles from 10.9M to 1.3M.
Oil is now trading above both the daily and weekly swing high of 54.90.
This move has technical changed the the trend for both these time frames from down to up.
Although this move is significant there is a need to study closely the strength of any subsequent pull back before any firmer assessment on the strength of this move can be reached.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move higher and a retest of the 57.30 level being yesterday’s high.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 55.00 support level..
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 55.05 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/22042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Having breached the 1.0730 swing level and the channel bottom EURUSD is trading in a 1 hour down trend.
Yesterday EURUSD traded lower only for the price action to reverse in morning trading.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.0700 support level and yesterdays low at 1.0650.
Alternatively a failure to breach these level could see EURUSD trade back up to the 1.0800 resistance level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0850 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/22042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Having breached the 1.4915 swing level and the channel bottom GBPUSD is trading in a 1 hour down trend.
Yesterday GBPUSD traded lower only for the price action to reverse in morning trading.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.4900 support level.
Alternatively a failure to breach these level could see GBPUSD trade back up to the 1.5000 resistance level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5050 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/22042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDJPY continued its stellar rise following the break up from above its down channel the 119.25 swing level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 119.75 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see USDJPY trade back down to the 118.80 support level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/22042015USDCHFH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF experienced a strong reversal as it paired most of the gains it had made.
However the 0.9500 level has offered good support.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.9600 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see USDCHF trade back down to the 0.9500 support level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/22042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday AUDUSD traded above the 0.7750 prior isolated high.
The move above this level has technically changed the trend from down to up.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.7840 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see AUDUSD trade back down to the 0.7700 support level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7700 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/22042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted previously Gold over the past few days has traded in a rather sloppy fashion.
However the bigger picture does seem bullish with two consecutive weekly bullish pin bars being painted.
There does seem to be a great deal of support forming on the daily chart around the 1180 area.
Will this be a base for the creation of a broad multiple period up trend? We first need to see Gold trade above the April high of 1224.00.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1209.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade above the 1209.00 level could see Gold trade back down to the 1192.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1209.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/22042015CLM5H11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil yesterday broke under its 56.65 support level.
This move has technically changed the 1 hour trend from up to down.
This morning Crude Oil is testing the low of its up channel.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off its channel bottom.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 55.00 support level..
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 58.75 level..
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/27042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday EURUSD traded higher however the price action became very erratic.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.0900 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see EURUSD trade back down to the 1.0800 support level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0800 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/27042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD spiked higher on Friday as it continued to trade above it large down channel.
The move higher over the past two weeks has put GBPUSD within touching distance of the 1.5350 area.
This area coincides with a prior broken multiple year converging triangle formation.
I am this morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5250 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD trade back down to the 1.5100 support level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5150 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/27042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday’s move under the 119.30 level has technically changed the trend from up to down.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 118.80 support level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDJPY trade back up to the 119.30 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.10 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/27042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Following Thursday’s collapse USDCHF consolidated above the 0.9500 support level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.9500 support level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9600 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/27042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday AUDUSD tested the 0.7840 resistance level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.7840 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see AUDUSD trade back down to the 0.7805/7800 support level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7700 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/27042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday Gold retested and broke through the 1184.15 support level.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a move in the direction of the large channel bottom in the 1162.00 area.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Gold retest the 1184.15 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1198.05 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/27042015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has traded in a 55.70 to 58.75 range for the past few days.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of the 58.75 / 59.000 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil test the 55.50 support level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 55.70 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/28042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday EURUSD traded higher following positive news from the Greek Government.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.0900 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move above this level could see EURUSD trade back down to the 1.0800 support level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0820 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/28042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday GBPUSD continued to trade higher as the price action tested the 1.5250 level.
Today’s GDP number should add to the market volatility.
I am this morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5250 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD trade back down to the 1.5100 support level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5100 level
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/28042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday USDJPY was range bound as it traded between the 118.80 and 119.40 levels.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 118.80 support level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDJPY trade back up to the 119.40 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 119.40 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/28042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday USDCHF was range bound as it traded between the 0.9500 and 0.9600 levels.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.9500 support level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9600 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/28042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday AUDUSD traded higher and this positive price action has followed through into today’s trade.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7900 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see AUDUSD trade back down to the 0.7800 support level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7800 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/28042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday afternoon was bid higher and the price action experienced a large spike.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1209.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Gold retest the 1198.05 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1175.35 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/28042015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to trade in a 55.50 to 58.75 range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of the 55.50 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil test the 57.85 resistance level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 57.85 level
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/29042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday EURUSD continued to rally and has now traded up to a major down channel top.
The question is can EURUSD breach this and the 1.1000 level or will sellers come into the market and push the price action lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the channel top.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move above this level could see EURUSD trade back down to the 1.0900 support level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0850 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/29042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday GBPUSD continued to rally as traders shrugged off disappointing GDP data.
GBPUSD has now traded up into prior broken support being a large multiple year converging triangle formation.
This broken support could offer strong resistance at the 1.5350 area.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5350 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD trade back down to the 1.5150 support level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5100 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/29042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday USDJPY continues to be range bound as it trades between the 118.80 and 119.40 levels.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 118.80 support level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDJPY trade back up to the 119.40 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 119.40 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/29042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday USDCHF continues to be range bound as it trades between the 0.9500 and 0.9600 levels.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.9500 support level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9600 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday AUDUSD experienced a stellar rise.
However the move higher has run into resistance at the 0.8000 level.
This level coincides with a prior monthly support area.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.8000 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see AUDUSD trade back down to the 0.7840 support level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7800 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/29042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold yesterday continued to trade higher but found some resistance at the 1214.85 level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1214.85 resistance level and a continuation to the prior top at 1222.00.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Gold retest the 1209.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1175.35 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/29042015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
As posted previously Oil continues to trade in a 55.50 to 58.75 range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of the 55.50 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil test the 57.85 resistance level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 57.85 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.04.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/30042015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday EURUSD spiked higher as the price action broke above its large down channel.
The move higher would indicate that multiple year support in the 1.0500 area is valid and strong.
The move above the channel and the significant 1.1000 level now puts into play the long side of the trade.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1200 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move above this level could see EURUSD trade back down to the 1.1050 support level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0950 / 1.1000 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/30042015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday GDPUSD traded higher as it broke through the 1.5350 resistance level.
The 1.5350 is a significant multiple year resistance level as it coincides with a prior broken converging triangle price structure.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5450 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD trade back down to the 1.5350 support level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5150 level
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/30042015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday USDJPY traded lower as it broke the 118.80 support level.
However what followed was volatile trading as the price action moved between the 118.50 and 119.40 price levels.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 118.80 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 118.50 support level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 119.40 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/30042015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday USDCHF collapsed as it broke under the 0.9500 support level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 0.9340 support level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9500 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9600 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/30042015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday AUDUSD trade higher as the price action broke above the 0.8000 and 0.8050 resistance levels.
However during morning trading AUDUSD has corrected lower with the price action trading under the last isolated low of 0.7975.
The move beneath this swing level has technically changed the direction of the 1 hour trend from up to down.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move lower and down to the area of channel support.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see AUDUSD trade back down to the 0.8000 resistance level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.8075 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/30042015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday Gold failed in its attempt to retest the 1214.85 resistance level.
Subsequently Gold corrected lower as it penetrated the prior isolated low of 1204.70.
The move beneath this swing level has technically changed the direction of the 1 hour trend from up to down.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1198.05 support level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Gold retest the 1209.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1214.85 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/30042015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday Oil broke higher from its recent tight consolidation pattern.
The break higher is in line with the directional momentum that can be found on both the daily and weekly time frames.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of yesterdays highs on the 59.00 area.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil test the 56.65 resistance level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 56.65 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/0105EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday EURUSD had a volatile trading session before finally closing up on the day and above the 1.1200 resistance level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1250 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move above this level could see EURUSD trade back down to the 1.1200 support level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/0105GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday GBPUSD retested but failed to trade above the 1.5500 resistance level.
The breach of the last isolated low at 1.5400 has change the 1 hour trend from up to down.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 1.5500 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD breach the the 1.5350 support level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5495 / 1.5500 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/0105USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday USDJPY experienced a strong rally as it broke above its down channel.
The breach of the last isolated high at 119.36 has change the 1 hour trend from down to up.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of the 119.75 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 119.40 support level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/0105USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday USDCHF broke under its 0.9340 support level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9300 support level.
Alternatively a failure to breach this level could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9445 resistance level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9445 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/0105AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday AUDUSD traded back down to its channel bottom.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a bounce off channel bottom support.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see AUDUSD trade back down to the 0.7840 support level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.8075 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/0105GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday Gold experienced a massive collapse.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1175.35 support level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Gold retest the 1192.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1207.30 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/0105CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday Oil continued to trade higher.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of the 60.00 level
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil test the 59.00 support level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 58.50 level
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/04052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday EURUSD was not able to sustain a move above last week’s highs.
What followed was a breach of the 1.1200 isolated low.
The move beneath this level has technically changed the 1 hour trend from up to down.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a move down to the 1.1050 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see EURUSD retest the 1.1200 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1285 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/04052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday GBPUSD collapsed.
The move lower followed the prior break down from the up channel and breach of the 1.5400 isolated low.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5100 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see GBPUSD test the 1.5250 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/0405015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday USDJPY continued its strong rally.
The breach of the last isolated high at 119.35 has change the 1 hour trend from down to up.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a retest of Friday’s high.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 119.75 support level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/04052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday USCHF traded lower however has since rallied.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9445 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDCHF trade back down to the last weeks lows at the 0.9275 area.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9445 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/04052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday AUDUSD broke down from its up channel.
This followed a breach of the 0.7975 isolated low.
The move beneath this level has technically changed the 1 hour trend from up to down.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7750 support level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.7840 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.8075 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/0405215GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday Gold continued to trade lower but found support at the 1175.35 level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1184.15 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Gold retest Friday’s lows.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1207.20 level
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/04052015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday Oil did trade higher however by the close of business had paired most of its gains.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of the 60.00 level
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil test the 59.00 support level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 58.50 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/06052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday EURUSD bounce higher off its channel bottom.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1285 /1.1300 resistance area.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher prices could see EURUSD retest the 1.1200 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/06052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday GBPUSD bounced higher off its 1.5100 support level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a re-test of the 1.5250 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5150 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5100 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/06052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday USDJPY tested, bounced off the 119.75 level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 119.40 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDJPY trade back up to the 119.75 support level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/06052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday USDCHF continued to trade lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9200 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9270 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9385 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/06052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday AUDUSD continued to trade higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a re-test of the broken up channel.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see AUDUSD could trade back down into the direction of the 0.7840 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7785 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/06052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday continued to trade higher but eventually found strong resistance at the 1198.05 level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a re-test of the 1198.05 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Gold re-test the 1192.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1185.45 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/06052015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday Oil broke above its recent range as it put in a very strong rally.
I am this morning monitoring the price action to consolidate or correction off the overnight highs.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Oil test the 60.00 support level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 58.50 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/07052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday EURUSD closed at its highs and this positive momentum has continued into the mornings trading.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1350 resistance area.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher prices could see EURUSD retest the 1.1285 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/07052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday GBPUSD traded higher however this morning has opened some what negatively.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5150 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see GBPUSD re-test the 1.5250 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5150 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/07052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday USDJPY traded lower but has found support at the 119.40 level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 119.40 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDJPY trade back up to the 119.75 support level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/07052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday USDCHF traded lower but eventually found support above the 0.9100 area.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9100 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9270 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9385 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/07052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday AUDUSD closed higher on the day but was however unable to hold onto most of its gains.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a re-test of the broken up channel.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see AUDUSD could trade back down into the direction of the 0.7925 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7925 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/07052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday Gold experienced a indifferent days trading however this morning a negative bias has entered the market.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1182.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Gold re-test the 1192.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1198.05 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/07052015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday Oil initially spiked higher but found resistance at the 62.50 level and gave up all its gains.
This morning monitoring the price action for a test of the 60.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Oil re-test yesterdays highs.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 58.50 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/08052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday EURUSD corrected for the entire day.
This negative bias has continued into this morning.
However the price action has now traded back to strong support in the form of the 1.1200 level and channel bottom.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a bounce off the channel bottom.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher prices could see EURUSD re-test the 1.1200 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/08052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday GBPUSD traded in a fairly tight range.
However last nights news of a shock exit poll result sent GBPUSD higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a re-test of the 1.5495 / 1.5500 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD re-test the 1.5350 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5150 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/08052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday USDJPY spiked higher off the 119.00 support area.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 120.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 119.75 support level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/08052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday USDCHF spiked higher off the 0.9070 area.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9270 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDCHF trade back down to the 0.9070 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9385 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/08052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday AUDUSD failed in its attempt to sustain a move back into its up channel.
This led to a a strong downside correction which has continued into the morning trading.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7925 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see AUDUSD could trade back down into the direction of the 0.7840 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.8025 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/08052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday Gold traded lower.
However support was found at the 1182.00 area and this has led to a move higher during Friday morning.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1192.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Gold re-test the 1182.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1198.05 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/08052015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday Oil slammed lower.
Is this a case of all good things end? With support being held at the 58.50 level we really need to see a push higher.
Otherwise the bulls who bought Oil during this up move will once again run for cover.
This morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off the 58.50 level
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Oil re-test yesterdays lows.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 61.30 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/11052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday EURUSD continued to correct lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a bounce off the mornings lows.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher prices could see EURUSD re-test the 1.1050 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/11052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday GBPUSD traded in erratic fashion for most of the day.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a re-test of the 1.5495 / 1.5500 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD re-test the 1.5350 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5350 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/11052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday USDJPY experienced a volatile trading session.
Initially USDJPY spiked higher but was unable to make much headway above the 120.00 level.
What followed was a nasty collapse that was halted around the 119.75 level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 120.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 119.75 support level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/11052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday USDCHF continued to rally as the price action traded up to its channel top.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9385 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDCHF trade back down to the 0.9270 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9180 level
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/1105215AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday AUDUSD traded in volatile fashion as the price action stayed within a tight range.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7925 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see AUDUSD could trade back down into the direction of the 0.7840 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7975 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/11052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday Gold traded higher but found resistance at its channel top.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1182.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Gold re-test the 1192.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1198.05 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/11052015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday Oil continued to trade under its channel bottom in what was volatile trading.
This morning monitoring the price action for a breach of the 60.00 level
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Oil re-test the 58.50 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 61.30 level
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/12052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday EURUSD experienced a somewhat choppy day.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1200 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher prices could see EURUSD re-test the 1.1050 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/1205215GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday GBPUSD continued to trade higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5600 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD re-test the 1.5350 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5350 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/1205215USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday USDJPY rallied for the entire day.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 120.25 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 119.75 support level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/1205215USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday USDCHF USDCHF continued to rally as the price action traded up to its channel top.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9385 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDCHF trade back down to the 0.9270 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9295 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/12052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday AUDUSD continues to trade in a tight range.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7975 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see AUDUSD could trade back down into the direction of the 0.7840 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7975 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/12052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday Gold tested but could not sustain a move above its down channel top.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1182.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Gold re-test the 1192.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1192.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/12052015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday Oil happy a choppy days trading.
This morning monitoring the price action for a breach of the 60.00 level
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Oil re-test the 58.50 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.00 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/13052015EURUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday EURUSD rallied off the 1.1250 support level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1285 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher prices could see EURUSD re-test the 1.1125 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1125 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/13052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday GBPUSD spiked higher following a bounce off the 1.5550 support level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5700 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD re-test the 1.5550 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5550 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/13052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday USDJPY failed to sustain a move above the 120.25 level and the proceeded to experience a strong correction.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 119.75 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDJPY trade back up to the 120.00 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/13052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday USDCHF broke lower off its channel top.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9180 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9340 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9340 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/13052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday AUDUSD traded higher but found resistance at the 0.8000 level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a re-test of the 0.8000 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see AUDUSD could trade back down into the direction of the 0.7925 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7875 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/13052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday Gold broke above its down channel.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1198.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Gold re-test the 1192.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1182.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/13052015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday Oil traded higher in an orderly staircase fashion.
This morning monitoring the price action for a breach of the 61.30 level
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Oil re-test the 60.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 59.00 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/14052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday EURUSD continued to trade higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1450 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher prices could see EURUSD re-test the 1.1285 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1200 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/14052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday GBPUSD continues to trade higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5800 level which coincides with a prior area of strong resistance.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD re-test the 1.5650 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5550 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/14052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday USDJPY continued to trade lower as the price action slash through multiple support levels.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 118.80
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDJPY trade back up to the 119.40 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.30 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/14052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday USDCHF traded lower following its failure to test its channel top.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9110 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9180 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9295 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/14052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday AUDUSD traded higher for most of the day.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a re-test of this mornings highs.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see AUDUSD could trade back down into the direction of the 0.8050 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7950 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/14052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday Gold broke higher from the previous days tight range.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1222.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Gold re-test the 1209.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1182.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/14052015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Wednesday Oil traded higher but failed to penetrate back into its up channel. This led to a strong downward correction.
This morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off the 60.00 area.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Oil re-test the 59.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 59.00 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/15052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday EURUSD traded within a tight range.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1450 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher prices could see EURUSD re-test the 1.1340 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1340 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/1505215GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday GBPUSD continues to trade higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5800 level which coincides with a prior area of strong resistance.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see GBPUSD re-test the 1.5650 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5650 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/15052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday USDJPY spiked higher and is now testing the upper limit of its down channel.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a bounce lower off the 119.40 level and the channel top.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDJPY trade back up to the 119.75 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.30 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/15052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday USDCHF traded lower following its failure to test its channel top.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9110 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9180 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9295 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/15052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday AUDUSD corrected lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.8075 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see AUDUSD could trade back down into the direction of the 0.8000 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7950 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/15052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday Gold closed marginally up on the day.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1222.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Gold re-test the 1212.40 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1212.40 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/15052015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday Oil closed slightly lower on the day.
This morning monitoring the price action for a test off the 59.00 area.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Oil re-test the 60.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.80 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/19052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday EURUSD tested the channel bottom and has subsequently broken it during early morning trading.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1200 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower prices could see EURUSD re-test the 1.1285 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1465 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/19052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday GBPUSD tested the 1.5650 support level.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a re- test of the 1.5650 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see GBPUSD test last weeks highs.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5650 level
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/19052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday USDJPY continued to trade above its down channel and painted a bullish higher low higher high formation.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 120.30 level
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 119.40 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.20 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/19022015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday USDCHF tested and close above its down channel.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9295 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDCHF trade back down to the 0.9250 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9130 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/19022015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday AUDUSD traded down and closed under its up channel.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7950 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.8025 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7950 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/19022015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday Gold has corrected off its highs.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a re-test of this weeks highs.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see Gold re-test the 1212.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1212.40 level
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/19022015CLM5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday Oil has continued to trade lower.
This morning monitoring the price action for a test off the 59.00 area.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Oil re-test the 60.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.80 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/20052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday EURUSD lost further ground as it broke down through multiple support levels.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1050 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower prices could see EURUSD re-test the 1.1200 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1465 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/20052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday GBPUSD tested and broke through its channel bottom.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5450 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see GBPUSD re-test the 1.5550 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5800 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/20052015USDJPYH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday USDJPY traded higher following its break out from its down channel.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 121.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 120.50 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.90 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/20052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday USDCHF traded higher following its break out from its down channel.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9385 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDCHF trade back down to the 0.9340 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9250 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/20052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday AUDUSD continued to trade lower following its break down from its channel bottom.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test 0.7875 level.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.7950 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.8000 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/20052015GOLDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday Gold broke through its down channel.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1204.70.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Gold re-test the 1212.40 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1232.20 level
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/20052015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Tuesday Oil continued to trade lower.
This morning monitoring the price action for a test off the 57.85 area.
Alternatively a failure to trade lower could see Oil re-test the 59.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 61.65 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/22052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday EURUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1180 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1125 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1180 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/22052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday GBPUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5700 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5650 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5550 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/22052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday USDJPY closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 120.75 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDJPY test the 121.25 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.25 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/22052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday USDCHF closed the day unchanged.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9340 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDCHF test the 0.9385 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9250 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/22052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday AUDUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7925 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7875 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7925 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/22052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday Gold tested the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1212.40 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1204.70 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1212.40 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/22052015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Thursday Oil closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 60.80 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 60.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.80 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/25052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday EURUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.0900 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see EURUSD test the 1.1050 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1180 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/25052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday GBPUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5550 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5450 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5700 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/25052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday USDJPY closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 122.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher prices could see USDJPY test the 121.25 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 120.75 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/25052015USDCHFH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday USDCHF closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9445 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDCHF test the 0.9385 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9295 level
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/25052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday AUDUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7785 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.7840 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7925 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/25052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday Gold closed the day unchanged.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1198.05 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see XAUUSD test the 1212.40 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1212.40 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2505215CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Friday Oil closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 60.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 59.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.80 level
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/26062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday EURUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.0900 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see EURUSD test the 1.050 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1180 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/26052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday GBPUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5350 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see GBPUSD test the 1.5450 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5700 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/26052015USDJPYH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday USDJPY closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 123.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 122.00 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 121.50 level
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/26052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday USDCHF closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9490 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDCHF test the 0.9400 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9400 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/26052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday AUDUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7785 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.7840 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7840 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/26052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday Gold closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1198.05 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see XAUUSD test the 1204.70 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 down up trend with the line of control at the 1212.40 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/26052015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Monday Oil closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 59.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see Light Sweet Crude test the 60.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.80 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2705EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has slightly revived this morning, after a slide it experienced since last Friday.
The price action has not managed to breach 1.0850 support, retracing higher and likely to retest the 1.1050 resistance, coinciding with the upper border of the downward trend channel.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher, we could see EURUSD to move towards 1.8000 support.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1180 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2705GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has also retraced this morning.
Today we are monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5450 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a higher prices could see GBPUSD to retest the 1.5350 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5700 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2705USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has returned to reconfirm the breach of the channel.
Today we are monitoring the price action to retest the return to the channel, alternatively the move higher towards 124.000 level could be seen.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 121.50 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2705USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has retraced from the yesterday’s highs this morning, breaching 0.9490 support.
Today we are monitoring the price action to test 0.9410 support, which also coincides with the lower border of the uptrend channel.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF to retest the previous high of 0.9535.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9400 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2705AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has stabilized today, after a sharp move lower during the previous week.
This morning we are monitoring the price action to test the upper border of the downward trend channel.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7720 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7840 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2705GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has yesterday reached a two week low, declining to 1185.00 level.
Today we are monitoring the price action to test the upward side of the channel. Alternatively, the failure to sustain the higher prices could see the precious metal to slide to 1184.00
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 down up trend with the line of control at the 1212.40 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2705CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Today Oil has retraced from this month lows as it reached 57.70 level yesterday.
Currently we are monitoring the price action to test 59.10 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see the commodity to slide lower towards 56.50 support.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.80 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/28052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.0900 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see EURUSD test the 1.1050 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1180 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/28052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5350 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see GBPUSD test the 1.5400 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5450 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/28052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 124.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 122.75 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 122.75 level
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/28052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9490 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDCHF test the 0.9400 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9400 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2805215AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7650 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.7750 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7750 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/28052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1182.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see XAUUSD test the 1192.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1212.40 level
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2805215CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 56.65 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see Light Sweet Crude test the 58.15 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 58.15 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.05.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/29052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1050 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.0900 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0865 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/29052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5250 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see GBPUSD test the 1.5350 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/29052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 124.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 122.75 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 122.75 level
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/29052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9500 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDCHF test the 0.9400 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/29052015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7700 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7550 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7750 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/29052015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1192.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1182.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1192.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/29052015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 59.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 57.85 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 59.00 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.06.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/06012015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.0900 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see EURUSD test the 1.1050 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0865 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/01062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5250 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see GBPUSD test the 1.5290 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5350 level
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/01062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 124.50 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 124.00 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 123.60 level
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/01062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9500 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDCHF test the 0.9400 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/01062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD closed the day unchanged.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7700 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7620 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7750 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/01062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1198.05 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1185.50 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1185.45 level
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/01062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 60.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 59.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 57.80 level
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.06.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/02062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1050 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.0900 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0865 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/02062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5150 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see GBPUSD test the 1.5290 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5290 level
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/02062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 125.50 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 124.00 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 123.60 level
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/02062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9500 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDCHF test the 0.9400 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/02062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7700 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7600 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7600 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/02062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1198.05 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1185.50 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1185.50 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/02062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 60.80 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 60.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 59.30 level
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.06.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/03062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1050 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see EURUSD test the 1.1200 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0865 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/03062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5350 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5250 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5170 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/03062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 125.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 123.60 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 123.60 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/03062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9295 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDCHF test the 0.9400 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9480 level
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/03062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7800 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7750 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7595 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/03062015GOLDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1198.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1185.45 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1185.45 level
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/03062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 60.80 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 60.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 59.30 level.
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.06.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/04062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1340 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1200 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/04062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5350 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5250 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5170 level
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/04062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 125.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 124.00 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 123.60 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/04062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9295 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDCHF test the 0.9425 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9425 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/04062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7700 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.7750 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7820 level
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/04062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1182.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see XAUUSD test the 1185.50 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1196.25 level
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/04062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 59.30 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see Light Sweet Crude test the 60.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 59.30 level.
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.06.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/05062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1340 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1200 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1200 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/05062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5350 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5250 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5250 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/05062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 125.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 124.00 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 123.60 level
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/05062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF closed the day unchanged.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9290 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDCHF test the 0.9400 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9425 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/05062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7600 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.7700 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7820 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/05062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1170.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see XAUUSD test the 1179.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1196.25 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/05062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 57.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see Light Sweet Crude test the 58.15 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.06.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/08062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1200 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1050 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1275 level
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/08062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5350 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5250 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5450 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/08062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 125.50 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 125.00 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 123.60 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/08062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9300 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDCHF test the 0.9425 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9300 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/08062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7700 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7600 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7700 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/08062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1179.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1170.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1179.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/08062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 59.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 58.15 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.00 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.06.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/09062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1380 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1275 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/09062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5250 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see GBPUSD test the 1.5350 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5170 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/09062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 125.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 124.00 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 123.60 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/09062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9300 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDCHF test the 0.9250 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9480 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/09062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7600 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.7700 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour dowm trend with the line of control at the 0.7750 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/09062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1179.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1170.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1179.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/09062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 59.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 57.80 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 57.80 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.06.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/10062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1380 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1275 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1200 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/10062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5550 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5350 level.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5250 level.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/10062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 122.75 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDJPY test the 123.60 level.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 124.60 level.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/10062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9250 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDCHF test the 0.9330 level.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9330 level.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/10062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD closed the day lower.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7820 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7750 level.
From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7700 level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/10062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1185.50 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1170.00 level.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1170.00 level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/10062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil closed the day higher.
This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 61.50 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 60.00 level.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 57.80 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.06.2015
In a turn of events that frayed the nerves of the Greek negotiation team, the IMF representatives have left the Brussels debt talks and flown back to Washington.
According to the IMF spokesman Mr. Gerry Rice the gap between Greece and the creditors is large. Mr. Rice said that the two sides are “well away from an agreement”.
The same old areas still divide Greece from its creditors of Pension, Taxation and Public Sector reform. However there has been some movement on the primary budget surplus.
With Greece needing a cash injection for a new debt deal by the end of the month, an inability to reach a workable compromise agreement will put in jeopardy a payment to the IMF on June 30.
The administration of Alexis Tsipras is looking for debt relief in exchange for a relaxation of the Greek Governments anti austerity position. However the creditors and more particularly the Eurogroup have no wish to go soft on Greece as there is a fear that other countries within the Eurozone would justifiably ask for the very same favourable terms.
One can understand both points of view. The SYRIZA party when it took power earlier in the year inherited an economy that had a debt burden too large to ever be sustainable. There is a need to find a way to allow the Greek economy to grow but at the same time reduce the immediate debt burden that the country faces.
On their part the Europeans are fearful of SYRIZA and what it stands for. SYRIZA is an anti-establishment radical left coalition of interest groups that has fed on the concerns of the Greek public.
This tide of support for new political parties has also swept across Europe with the SNP and UKIP making significant gains at the expense of the traditional centrist parties such as the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal’s in the United Kingdom.
There is going to be a general elections later in the year in Spain. In this country a political movement similar to SYRIZA called Podemos has evolved from a pressure group that is made up by dissatisfied individuals to a political force that threatens to take power. It is therefore not in the interest of the Eurogroup countries to cut a deal with SYRIZA as this will only add more energy to the Podemos movement.
So why did IMF decide to pack up all their toys and fly back to the States? Was it a case of pure frustration pushing them to exit the meeting? Or is it a case that the IMF has decided to play its hand and by toughening its stance. Will this move push the Greek Premiers Tsipras and Varoufakis into a corner that forces them make the big compromise?
Or will fear of a backlash from an electorate that was promised so much but received so little and the rank and file of the SYRIZA party make Tsipras think twice about giving way to the creditor’s demands. Maybe the only solution is to call a referendum on the plan and let the people decide.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/12062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1405
Target 2: 1.1110
Projected range: 0.0147 ATR
Daily control level: 1.1330
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/12062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5650
Target 2: 1.5385
Projected range: 0.0133 ATR
Daily control level: 1.5420
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/12062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.60
Target 2: 122.20
Projected range: 1.19 ATR
Daily control level: 124.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1206215USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9435
Target 2: 0.9210
Projected range: 0.0113 ATR
Daily control level: 0.9300
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1206215USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.2405
Target 2: 1.2175
Projected range: 0.0114 ATR
Daily control level: 1.2350
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1206215AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2405
Target 2: 1.2175
Projected range: 0.0102 ATR
Daily control level: 0.7700
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/12062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1194.15
Target 2: 1169.20
Projected range: 12.48 ATR
Daily control level: 1175.30
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1206215CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 62.30
Target 2: 58.75
Projected range: 1.76 ATR
Daily control level: 61.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.06.2015
The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has upped the game of brinkmanship by saying that there are no plans to present new proposals.
On the contrary Varoufakis wants there to be further meetings where negotiations can take place. Any new proposals will be presented at the upcoming European Finance Ministers meeting that is being held in Luxembourg on June 18.
With deadlines looming it wold appear that the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras and Varoufakis are trying to push the negotiations down to the wire in the hope that the Europeans will blink and cave into the Greek demands for debt restructuring.
There is a looming threat of a miscalculation and an accidental Grexit triggered by the attempts of the Greek Government to sow the seeds of doubt in the minds of their European counterparts. Tsipras has decided to put the game theory that Varoufakis is an expert of to the test and hope that the fear of contagion will push the Europeans towards a compromise.
However there has been a hardening of views on the part of the creditors. Donald Tusk the European Union President has only in the past few days by said “There is no more time for gambling. The day is coming, I am afraid, that someone says the game is over.”
The Greek Government was not voted to power with a mandate of negotiate or leave the Euro. In fact the Greek public on the whole what to stay part of the European family and have no wish to enter into new unchartered adventures.
Furthermore the current Greek Government has shown itself to be lacking the technical skills to navigate the introduction of a Drachma MK2. The economic fallout of an introduction of a new currency would lead to an economic meltdown which would lead to Pensioners and Public Sector Employees either not getting paid or seeing their salaries and purchasing power drastically reduced.
The Greek Government has battled against the European demands for further austerity but a re-introduction of the Drachma will bring about a drop in living standards which the SYRIZA administration has battled to avoid.
The current extension to the Greek financial support program ends on June 30. This coincides with the Greek Government having to pay back to the IMF EUR 1.5 billion. Without a new agreement it remains uncertain how the Greek Government can finance this payment.
Although a failure to pay the IMF on June 30 technical does not put Greece into default the lack of money means that every repayment deadline is now turning into a mini crisis. There is another date on the horizon which could make it an uncomfortable summer. This is on July 20 when the Greek Government has to pay back some EUR 3.5 billion to the ECB. This is when the end game finally happens as a failure to payback this money would effectively cut Greece and its banking system adrift from the European Central Bank.
With just over a month to go before the ECB deadline this game of chicken has to either end in an ugly car crash on a compromise will have to be reached. I do not see the Europeans or the IMF backing down on the two key issues of reform of Pensions and the Public Sector. If Tsipras has to swallow the bitterest pill he will ever have to take a referendum or a snap election looms on the horizon.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1662015EURUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1432
Target 2: 1.1132
Projected range: 0.0150 ATR
Daily control level: 1.1250
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/160616GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5734
Target 2: 1.5466
Projected range: 0.0134 ATR
Daily control level: 1.5485
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/16062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.46
Target 2: 122.34
Projected range: 1.06 ATR
Daily control level: 124.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/16062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9411
Target 2: 0.9169
Projected range: 0.0121 ATR
Daily control level: 0.9390
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/166062015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.2427
Target 2: 1.2215
Projected range: 0.0106 ATR
Daily control level: 1.2350
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/16062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7864
Target 2: 0.7664
Projected range: 0.0100 ATR
Daily control level: 0.7700
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/16062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1198.08
Target 2: 1173.52
Projected range: 12.28 ATR
Daily control level: 1175.30
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/16062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1:61.28
Target 2: 57.94
Projected range: 1.67 ATR
Daily control level: 61.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.06.2015
Once again the Federal Open Market Committee will take centre stage with Janet Yellen this evening due to deliver another eagerly awaited FOMC Statement.
This event which takes place 8 times a year will be monitored closely by traders and investors alike. In recent times, the FOMC Statements post the 2008 financial crisis has gained greater significance as a major event on the economic calendar.
This is due to the Federal Reserve, much like other major central banks such as the Bank of England and ECB, actively using “forward guidance” as a major policy tool. By means of “forward guidance” and through a careful manipulation of what I term as “Fed Speak” the FOMC has been able with some degree of success manage market expectations.
However with equity markets trading at the highs of this strong bull market there are major concerns surrounding the aftermath of an expected Fed tightening of interest rates that could take place as early as this summer.
A US interest rate increase will signal the end the recent era of cheap money. After some 7 years where investors made easy profits due to ideal market conditions, it will be of interest how market participants will react and adapt to a period of normalized interest rates.
Many traders and investors remember the times when global interest and inflation rates were much higher than they are today. However there are many traders, investors, hedge fund and portfolio managers who due to their age have never experienced periods of rising interest rates.
Furthermore, many of the trading algorithms that are being used currently, are based upon the present market conditions. Can these same systems be optimized to allow for periods of greater interest and inflation rate differentials across the world economy?
Back to today’s events and the FOMC has become rather data dependent. Furthermore the recent trend in data be it job, inflation or growth numbers has been inconsistent and erratic. The soft to trend less nature of the data that has been released to the markets thus far makes trying to discern what the Federal Reserve’s intentions are very difficult to comprehend. In fact does the FOMC chairwoman Janet Yellen herself know with any certainty when to flick the switch and raise interest rates? Furthermore is there any type of consensus among the other decision makers of the Fed.
I would be very surprised if the FOMC decides to raise interest rates this evening. There is a stronger possibility that we see a rate hike in September / October. For this to happen we will need better and more consistent data which would enforce a more hawkish outlook on interest rates. My gut feeling is that the FOMC will begin to normalize the interest rate picture in Q1 of 2016. Such a more cautious approach would suit the equity markets and give more time for all market participants to adapt to the new interest rate reality.
As for what I expect to happen today, I would not be surprised if leading up to the FOMC event that market volatility to drop off. However volatility should come back into the market after the statement is made. As the Fed wants to move on interest rates I see the US Dollar strengthening in the medium term. However there may be a dip lower after the statement if as expected interest rates are kept on hold.
With respect to the EURUSD there has been much resilience with the Euro holding firm despite all the negative headlines that surround Greece. The key area of 1.1400 / 1.1500 continues to be a target that could be tested.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/17062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1397
Target 2: 1.1097
Projected range: 0.0150 ATR
Daily control level: 1.1200
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/17062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5777
Target 2: 1.5515
Projected range: 0.0131 ATR
Daily control level: 1.5550
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/17062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.38
Target 2: 122.34
Projected range: 1.02 ATR
Daily control level: 124.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/17062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9442
Target 2: 0.9198
Projected range: 0.0122 ATR
Daily control level: 0.9330
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/17062015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.2395
Target 2: 1.2187
Projected range: 0.0104 ATR
Daily control level: 1.2350
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/17062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7846
Target 2: 0.7656
Projected range: 0.0095 ATR
Daily control level: 0.7700
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/17062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1193.77
Target 2: 1169.17
Projected range: 12.30 ATR
Daily control level: 1175.30
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/17062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 61.62
Target 2: 58.46
Projected range: 1.58 ATR
Daily control level: 61.50
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.06.2015
Yet another Fed statement has come and gone and not much has really happened.
The Federal Reserve is very much still a hostage to data. Although Q1 data was very soft the FOMC chairwoman’s assessment is that the US economy is on the right track and that and a normalization of the interest rate environment is on the cards in 2015.
We do have three more data cycles leading up to the September meeting. Therefore there is still time to see some good data which will give the Federal Reserve the green signal to hike rates from their current historic lows of 0.25%.
It would therefore seem that all options are on the table with Janet Yellen adopting a wait and see approach to the incoming data.
Are we ready for an interest rate rise in September? I don’t think the markets have adjusted to the new reality. A preference for Q1 2016 still seems to the most popular timing for the inevitable to happen.
However if during the coming months the data does support a future interest rate hike I do not expect the FOMC to make bold moves in raising the cost of capital. I do however expect the FOMC to test the water, increase interest rates and monitor the effects before deciding on subsequent rate increases.
With respect to division within the Federal Reserve there does not seem to be any obvious splits between members who have a dovish or hawkish view on future interest rate policy with all members accepting that this long period of historic low interest rates is coming to a close.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/18062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1490
Target 2: 1.1180
Projected range: 0.0155 ATR
Daily control level: 1.1200
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/18062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5991
Target 2: 1.5709
Projected range: 0.141 ATR
Daily control level: 1.5620
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1862015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.69
Target 2: 122.51
Projected range: 1.09 ATR
Daily control level: 124.50
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/18062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9335
Target 2: 0.9099
Projected range: 0.0118 ATR
Daily control level: 0.9330
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1806215USDCADH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.2329
Target 2: 1.2123
Projected range: 0.0103 ATR
Daily control level: 1.2350
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1806215AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7846
Target 2: 0.7648
Projected range: 0.0099 ATR
Daily control level: 0.7780
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1806215GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1198.21
Target 2: 1172.49
Projected range: 12.86 ATR
Daily control level: 1175.30
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/18062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 61.33
Target 2: 58.19
Projected range: 1.57 ATR
Daily control level: 61.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.06.2015
Yesterday Eurogroup Finance Ministers met in Brussels to discuss a Greek debt crisis that has dominated the financial headlines for over six months.
The meeting that was also attended by the International Monetary Fund was an attempt to find an 11th hour solution that would avert a debt default by a member of the European Union and Eurozone.
It is feared that a default or risk of default would make the run that is currently effecting Greek Banks would lead to the European Central Bank having to withdraw Emergency Liquidity Support. Such a move would cause a systemic failure of the Greek banks and could prompt an exit of the European single currency.
In the past week alone Greeks have withdrawn some 1.5bn eur from atms. The liquidity squeeze that is currently causing the Greek banking system so much stress only magnified the importance of the task at hand during Thursdays deadline Eurogroup summit.
The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis at the meeting insisted that his Government had delivered a complete and viable solution to its European partners and IMF.
However the President of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem disagreed saying that the Greek Government needs to present a “credible” proposal and “It is still possible to find an agreement and extend the current programme before the end of the month, but the ball is clearly in the Greek court to seize that last opportunity.”
The Mediterranean nation now has a little under two weeks remaining to reach a solution with all its creditors. The deadline is June 30 when the current agreement ends and a payment that is a little over EUR 1.5 billion is due to be paid to the IMF.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde also dismissed the Greek Governments current proposals as not going far enough and at the same time urged that the dialogue continue so that an agreement is reached.
Three has been a definite shift in the discussions with a realization that the current Greek debt burden of euro 320 billion which is a huge debt 180% of GBP is unsustainable. To put Greek States debt obligations into some context the UK has a debt burden of roughly half this ratio when compared to its own GDP.
The urgent issue now is how Greece is going to find the funds to repay the IMF EUR 1.5 billion on June 30 and eur 3.5 billion on July 20 to the ECB and other central banks. Even if this payments are met the Greek Government has to find another 14 billion in repayments by the end 2015
The Greek Government has run out of money and this has been confirmed during the week by the Governor of the Bank of Greece. The only way the Greek Government will be able to able to make the pending payments in June and July is if the last tranche of some eur 7.2 billion of the current bailout programme is released. However for this to happen the Europeans want the Greek Government to implement economic changes in areas such as pensions, VAT and the budget surplus. Such a move would be against the electoral promises made by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and another bitter pill for the Greek public to swallow.
So we are now left with the biggest high stakes games of chicken. At stake is not only the continued membership of Greece in the Eurozone but also eur 320 billion of European tax payer’s money. The aftermath of a Grexit is difficult to comprehend but the idea that the effects would be contained ignore the potential of a market overreaction that pushes other periphery countries also to the brink of disaster.
What is more worrisome for the West is the relationship between the Greek and Russian Governments. The close cultural and historic ties between both countries could just push Greece further to the east politically.
The Tsipras Government was never elected on a platform of agreement or Grexit. Therefore it is not his decision to plan or by accident trigger a Greek exit from the Eurozone system. However with time running out a bold decision has to be made.
The logical decision would be for the Europeans offering a completion of the current bailout programme in exchange for the reforms they demand and a pledge to restructure the debt burden.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/19062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1516
Target 2: 1.1198
Projected range: 0.0159 ATR
Daily control level: 1.1200
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/19062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.6020
Target 2: 1.5740
Projected range: 0.0140 ATR
Daily control level: 1.5800
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1906215USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.03
Target 2: 121.89
Projected range: 1.07 ATR
Daily control level: 124.50
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/19062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9328
Target 2: 0.9096
Projected range: 0.0116 ATR
Daily control level: 0.9335
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/19062015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.2324
Target 2: 1.2118
Projected range: 0.0103 ATR
Daily control level: 1.2350
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/19062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7904
Target 2: 0.7694
Projected range: 0.0105 ATR
Daily control level: 0.7640
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/19062015GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1214.62
Target 2: 1188.74
Projected range: 12.94 ATR
Daily control level: 1175.30
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/19062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 62.12
Target 2: 58.95
Projected range: 1.59 ATR
Daily control level: 61.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.06.2015
Without doubt today’s Eurogroup meeting and European Summit will be dominated by one major point of discussion. The Greek debt crisis.
The talks have now entered a critical period due to the time constraints that dictate that a solution must be found in the coming days.
With the Greek Government obliged to make a payment to the IMF of EUR 1.6 billion by June 30 and with the current debt programme ending on the same day, the need to find a solution that satisfies all the parties has taken on a critical importance.
The Greek Government has to offer enough compromises to its creditors so that it can receive the last tranche of EUR 7.2 billion from the European Union. Without these funds it is doubtful the Greek Government will have the means to avert a default to the IMF.
If the Greek Government was to default on its debt obligation to the IMF on June 30 it can be assumed that the European Central Bank boss, Mr. Mario Draghi would pull the plug on Greek banks which are presently suffering the effects on a run as frightened depositors pull their funds.
The ECB has injected large amounts of capital into Greek banks through its ELA mechanism. Without the emergency liquidity it would only be a matter of days for a full scale banking collapse grips this crucial sector of the economy.
The Greek Government having taken on the seriousness of its current financial predicament delivered a new plan to its creditors. No firm details have emerged of the latest Greek plan. From a positive aspect Mr. Martin Selmayr of the European Commission said it is a “good basis for progress”.
However the Greek Government will have to make large compromises on pensions and the public sector for any deal to be agreed. It is unclear how far the SYRIZA Government will sacrifice the wishes of its rank and file party members and voters to push through a deal.
The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will try to limit the fall out of a massive U-turn by pinning his hopes on a review and restructuring of the Greek debt once the current crisis has been averted.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/22062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1520
Target 2: 1.1230
Projected range: 0.0144 ATR
Daily control level: 1.1290
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/22062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.6005
Target 2: 1.5740
Projected range: 0.0131 ATR
Daily control level: 1.5800
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/22062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.95
Target 2: 121.90
Projected range: 1.03 ATR
Daily control level: 123.50
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/22062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9275
Target 2: 0.9060
Projected range: 0.0110 ATR
Daily control level: 0.9230
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/22062015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.2360
Target 2: 1.2165
Projected range: 0098 ATR
Daily control level: 1.2300
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/22062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7860
Target 2: 0.7670
Projected range: 0.0096
Daily control level: 0.7750
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/22062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1212.60
Target 2: 1187.20
Projected range: 12.69
Daily control level: 1205.85
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/22062015CLN5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 61.04
Target 2: 57.80
Projected range: 1.62 ATR
Daily control level: 61.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.06.2015
With the clock counting down to the June 30 deadline in would appear that the proposal made by the Greek Government over the weekend has added new impetus into the debt negotiations.
On June 30 the current bailout programme comes to a close. If the Government of Alexis Tsipras can reach an agreement by this date then the final tranche of EUR 7.2 billion will be released to it.
This payment will enable the Greek Government to fulfil its obligation to the IMF and make a payment of EUR 1.6 billion.
The new proposal which was submitted by the SYRIZA administration has offered some concessions to the Eurogroup and IMF. These concession include new taxes on the well off and businesses and selective increases in VAT. However the red lines of no reductions in Public Sector wages and Pensions remain.
The current proposal will undoubtedly help in contributing a budget surplus but the idea of hitting the higher earners and businesses could have a retrograde effect in the long run. The new taxes could lead to the brightest minds leaving the country and profitable businesses transferring their tax obligations to lower cost centres.
A move to encourage business and entrepreneurship by the rewarding and not penalizing success should have been sought. This policy that has been adopted by recent Conservative Governments in the United Kingdom with a great deal of success and was a key component of an economic policy which led to a revival of the United Kingdom’s economy.
Unfortunately the Greek Government has found it hard to release itself of the shackles that ties it to its far left roots. In the spirit of compromise having a proposal be it a mediocre one agreed upon will avert the current crisis.
It is hoped however that post June 30 that the current Greek Government could begin to adopt more business and investment friendly policies. This would go hand in hand with a thorough review of the public sector and pension system. Furthermore there needs to be a commitment to bring the privatizations of state enterprises that is now on hold back on track.
In exchange for the above the creditors will offer much needed and overdue debt restructuring.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/23062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1480
Target 2: 1.1200
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0140
Daily control level: 1.1410
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/23062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5952
Target 2: 1.5690
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level: 1.5905
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/23062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.39
Target 2: 122.33
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.03
Daily control level: 122.45
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour:
Target 1: 0.9323
Target 2: 0.9103
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 0.9150
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2406
Target 2: 1.2212
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.2200
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7823
Target 2: 0.7629
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 0.7795
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1198.48
Target 2: 1172.84
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.82
Daily control level: 1205.85
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/2606215CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 61.77
Target 2: 58.63
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.57
Daily control level: 61.90
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.06.2015
After what seems an eternity of talking and bickering between the Greek Government and its creditors it looks like we will finally have a deal that saves Greece from the clutches of a debt default and the inevitable fallout out of the Euro area.
A deal is expected to be agreed upon within the coming days. However the prospect of getting the legislation passed through the parliaments of member states of the Eurozone could turn out to be a tricky undertaking.
It is not certain that all the individual governments can persuade their parliaments to back the legislation. Although it seems likely that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel will impose herself enough on her colleagues to ensure that the legislation is passed in the German Bundestag we may have surprises from belligerent northern European deputies who could decide that this deal is bad for Europe. The notable country that will keep markets on edge is Finland. This Finish Government has been a vocal critic of the Greek Government and has taken a harder the line than most of its European partners.
The other concern is of course what will happen in the Greek parliament. Although the Greek Government holds a large majority in the national legislature it is far from certain that the SYRIZA administration will receive unanimous backing from its rank and file elements. There is the prospect of the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras having to request support from the opposition parties of the Greek establishment.
So with a deal likely on the cards the question is will approval be received in time for the payment of EUR 1.7 billion be made to the IMF? Probably not but this is a non-issue if it is certain that no barriers be it legislative or legal are put in the way of sealing this deal.
This leads us to the deal in question. It would appear that the Greek Government has offered enough concessions to its European partners to have a deal approved. That the Greek Government has given some ground on pensions by abolishing early retirement is a good move.
However of what benefit is it to penalize the wealthy and businesses that have annual net incomes of greater than EUR 500,000. These are the very persons and organizations that Greece needs to keep on side if the country is to move forward and out of this dreaded recession / depression.
The success stories of the Greek economy have an aversion to paying tax because they see a Greek Government that spends the funds at its disposal in a liberal manner on a bloated and inefficient public sector. Effectively for years the Greek Government has implemented a progressive tax policy where it taxes the rich and gives to those privileged enough to work for the Greek state.
The news that the SYRIZA administration will now target the rich will be greeted by cheers and laughter in the private banks, wealth management companies and accountancy practices in London, Luxembourg and Geneva. For sure accountants will be booking their flights to Athens and Mykonos over the coming days.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/24062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1307
Target 2: 1.1027
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0140
Daily control level: 1.1410
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/24062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5860
Target 2: 1.5598
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level:1.5905
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/2406215USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.96
Target 2: 122.90
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.03
Daily control level: 122.45
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/24062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9448
Target 2: 0.9222
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 0.9150
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/2406215USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2421
Target 2: 1.2227
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.2200
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/24062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7828
Target 2: 0.7642
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 0.7795
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/24062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1191.01
Target 2: 1165.49
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.76
Daily control level: 1205.85
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/24062015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 62.70
Target 2: 59.64
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.53
Daily control level: 59
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.06.2015
The hope and optimism that flooded through the markets over the likelihood that a resolution to the Greek debt crisis has faded away. The mood has changed as the reality that the Greek Government and the creditors are not even on the same book let alone the same page.
Meetings late into the night between the European Commission, European Central Bank and the Greek Government did not lead as expected to a breakthrough.
The collapse in the talks was triggered by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has questioned the ability of the Greek Government to increase revenues through the imposition of higher taxes on the wealthy and Businesses.
Prior Greek Governments had claimed that by targeting the enormous Greek black economy that they would be able to increase revenues and reduce the deficit. However attempts at reforming tax collection in Greece have so far failed. Therefore the IMF felt that the Greek offer to increase tax revenues could not guarantee the necessary outcome.
A more balanced plan that brought the Greek pension system in line with rest of Europe and a concerted effort to trim the public sector is needed. However the SYRIZA administration decided to stick to its red lines which are a product of its ideological stance and refused to budge on reforming these two burdensome sectors of the Greek economy.
The preference in the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras words was to place the burden of further austerity on those groups which had suffered the least during the shock of the this long drawn out crisis. I am still not sure how adding an extra burden on businesses will encourage growth and employment in the Greek economy.
As the June 30 deadline draws ever closer the flurry of meetings and activity is increasing with Alexis Tsipras is due meet the creditors in the Morning. The deluge of news has of course added volatility to the markets. These current market conditions should continue up to the end of month deadline.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26052015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1332
Target 2: 1.1078
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127
Daily control level: 1.1235
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/25052015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5832
Target 2: 1.5582
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125
Daily control level: 1.5800
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/25052015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.80
Target 2: 122.88
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.96
Daily control level: 124.35
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/25052015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9448
Target 2: 0.9222
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 0.9230
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/U25062015SDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2482
Target 2: 1.2286
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.2275
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/25062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7791
Target 2: 0.7609
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 0.7770
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/25062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1187.27
Target 2: 1162.75
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.26
Daily control level: 1180.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/25062015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 61.82
Target 2: 58.62
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.60
Daily control level: 59.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.06.2015
The latest failure to reach an agreement which resolves the Greek debt crisis continues to tax the minds of European leaders and Finance Ministers.
It is also beginning to make the markets jittery and adding to market volatility and spikes in the price action.
There was much optimism earlier in the week with the Greek Government presenting what many saw as the first serious proposal since they came to power five months ago.
The IMF however baulked at the Greek plan which they felt was heavy on tax increases and light on budget cuts.
The Greek Government is unwilling to cross its red lines of cutting pensions and salaries or head counts in the public sector.
This has led the IMF to the conclusion that the math simple does not add up and that the Greek Government will not be able to boost revenues through tax increases.
Far from it, increasing taxes on the wealthy and businesses could actually stifle economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund’s aim is for the Greek Government to create a plan that would allow for stable future budgets and the generation of budget surpluses.
Interestingly unlike its fellow creditors made up of European Union member states the IMF has promoted the idea of debt relief. The Greek debt is astronomical for an economy of its size and the IMF has correctly recognized that this debt is unmanageable.
The size of the Greek public debt is not the fault of the current Greek Government. The current crisis is due to the borrow and spend policies of prior PASOK and Nea Democratia Governments.
However, unfortunately this Greek Government needs to reach an agreement by June 30 if it is going to avoid defaulting to the IMF.
Therefore a compromise position has to be found that ticks all the boxes of the international creditors to the Greek Government.
This will mean the Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras backing down and presenting and unpalatable agreement to SYRIZA members of Parliament in the Greek legislature.
With the discussion having moved forward somewhat in recent weeks, it would appear that debt relief is now on the agenda.
What we really need to see now is an agreement which states that debt relief will be discussed if the Greek Government agrees to the reforms that are being promoted by the IMF and the Europeans.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1321
Target 2: 1.1087
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117
Daily control level: 1.2350
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5870
Target 2: 1.5626
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122
Daily control level: 1.5800
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015SDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.53
Target 2: 122.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.91
Daily control level: 124.35
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015USDCHFH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9461
Target 2: 0.9265
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 0.9320
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015USDCADH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2423
Target 2: 1.2227
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.2275
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015AUDUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7798
Target 2: 0.7624
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.7770
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015GOLDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1185.33
Target 2: 1160.85
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.24
Daily control level: 1180.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/26062015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 61.12
Target 2: 58.18
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47
Daily control level: 59.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.06.2015
It has been rumored for weeks and now these very rumors have come true. The Greek Government has announced capital controls on its banks. The move taken by the Greek Government was not a surprise and inevitable. There had been some hope that the European Central Bank would continue to support the country’s banking system through its emergency liquidity programme.
However the ELA programme was introduced to assist solvent banks that were suffering from the effects of a short term liquidity crisis and was never meant to be used as a tool to support one or other political agenda. Mean it or not the ECB chief Mario Draghi has taken a decision that sends the Greek State closer to the precipice and it only needs the slightest of pushes for the first sovereign default to occur within the Eurozone.
With the ELA capped by the ECB, what is even more upsetting for a Greek Government that campaigned on an election promise of no more debt is that if Greece does default the EUR 89 billion that the Greek banking system currently owes to the ECB will be added to the Greek national debt of EUR 323 billion.
The announcement by the Greek Government of capital controls on its banks now means that ordinary citizens can only withdraw EUR 60 a day. The Greek Prime Minister said “In the coming days, what is needed is patience and composure. The bank deposits of the Greek people are fully secure”. However he did not add that the deposits will be in Drachma.
So with 5 months of wasted opportunities we have come to the point where the Greek Government has to find EUR 1.6 billion to pay to the IMF by tomorrow June 30. It became obvious to all that as this deadline neared the Greek Government had no intention of making this payment without a new deal that solves the issue of debt viability.
The Greek Government has its red line that it does not want to cross. This being that those who have suffered the most during the long and drawn out recession, the pensioners and the public sector workers should not be hit.
It was the Greek Government’s preference that the burden be shared among the countries wealthy and businesses. I am very much against this policy as I feel that the motor of any successful economy are the middle classes and viable businesses.
I had a long discussion about this very subject over the weekend with a friend who holds a senior position in a successful Greek shipping company in Athens. When the subject of public sector salaries came up he said that state employees in the past had enjoyed privileges which they obtained through political favor but those days have long gone with salaries having been cut on average by some 40%. As for the pensioners, their majority of retirees are paid small monthly amounts and have to support with this money their extended family of unemployed sons and daughters.
He went on further to say that the current Government for all its failings had won the election because the political establishment of Greece had failed to stand up for the rights of its citizens. In my view SYRIZA promised the moon and the stars to the Greek people. Its election promises were never going to be achievable in the face of stiff opposition of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her political allies.
However there was a need to revisit the whole concept of European austerity as the medicine that was administered was poisoning the patient. The leaders of Europe have proclaimed on many occasions through the debt discussions that austerity had worked for Spain, Portugal and Ireland but has it in reality? I just see a sticking plastered that covers a large and festering wound.
What has followed on from austerity is the ECB now embarking on a plan of Quantitative Easing which generates even more debt. The longer term effects of QE are not known and it is unclear if the end result will be a stronger Europe. Do we actually need any more debt added to the already considerable pile that is owed?
Greece is an experiment on austerity taken to the extremes. An experiment that has gone on for too long, has effected too many people with disastrous consequences and destroyed the hopes and aspirations of the youth of an entire country.
The European project was meant to bring the nations of this continent together not to cause divisions of the haves and have nots. The Euro was good for only one country, the Germany. German industry through the cheap Euro allowed it to export BMW’s and Mercs to Greece and Spain. The citizens of these countries could afford to buy products because money was being thrown at them in the form of credit to both individuals and governments. In hindsight the debt should never have been taken but at the same time the big banks of Germany and France should have been more cautious with their policy on lending.
The current Greek Government did not create this debt mountain. This was due to the cosy relationship between successive Greek establishment governments and the Banks of Northern Europe. The SYRIZA government had every right to question the agreements that had been signed in the name of the Greek people because the leaders of PASOK and New Democracy had made a pig’s ear of what had gone on before.
I had mentioned in prior posts that a referendum was a strong possibility. The proposals on offer cut through the red lines of the SYRIZA Government. Prime Minister Tsipras had no other option but to put the proposal to the people. However capital controls create stark reality for Greek people leading up to referendum and could taint the outcome of the vote.
What we now have is a clash of ideologies. Will the democratic right of the Greek people prevail or will the referendum force the electorate to capitulate and vote in a plan that they do not like? I think that fear of a reintroduction of a much devalued Drachma would push the Greek population to vote yes.
If the “YES” vote wins on Sunday, the damage to the SYRIZA party would be immense. The scenario of the Prime Minister with views that reside on the radical left of the political spectrum having to implement policies of austerity does not sound a viable solution. I see another election being called shortly.
On the other hand, the Greek people are well known for their independent spirit. Although the “No” vote would cause the Greek people a lot of pain I believe that the damage caused to the Euro could have a wider impact. This is due to the shadow that the Spanish general election casts over the Euro project. In December Spain holds general elections. A victory for SYRIZA in Greece will become a beacon of hope for Podemos in Spain but also for populist groups of the left and right throughout Europe. The nightmare scenario for Chancellor Merkel is for Podemos to be victorious in Spain taking the whole European debt crisis to another level.
What is needed is a new plan for Europe. I argued for this when the Greek debt crisis once more took centre stage earlier in the year. There needs to be a real plan to address the huge sovereign debt levels throughout Europe. Time has become a commodity in short supply with deadline after deadline pushing the European project from crisis to crisis.
However time in reality is the one commodity that we have in abundance. The solution is very simple, create a more robust frame work for Eurozone sovereign debt and budget deficits and extend the tenure of the debt to 30, 50 or even 100 years. Such a move would allow for the playing field in Europe to be leveled and allow all the citizens of this great continent to work and prosper.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/29062015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1131
Target 2: 1.0877
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127
Daily control level: 1.2350
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/29062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5804
Target 2: 1.5564
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120
Daily control level: 1.5800
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/29062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.73
Target 2: 121.73
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.00
Daily control level: 124.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/29062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9484
Target 2: 1.223
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 0.9320
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/29062015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2430
Target 2: 1.2238
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 1.2275
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/29062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7798
Target 2: 0.7624
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.7770
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/29062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1197.03
Target 2: 1171.51
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.76
Daily control level: 1170.45
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/2906215CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 60.27
Target 2: 57.39
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44
Daily control level: 60.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.06.2015
The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday issued a statement that was a clear warning to the Greek people.
A “No” vote “would signal that Greece wants to distance itself from the euro zone and Europe”.
This is a comment that I take great exception to. There is no mechanism or legal remedy that will force Greece out of the Eurozone.
A few years ago the city of Detroit was declared Bankrupt and there are now fears that the US state of California could go the same way. There was never any talk of Detroit printing its own currency and I am sure that the administration of California is not contemplating the introduction of its own Dollar.
The Balkan country of Montenegro does not have its own currency. Even though it is not a member of either the European Union or Eurozone the Montenegro Government has decided to adopt the Euro for reasons of price stability.
The Greek Government will therefore have no legal obligation to ditch the Euro however in reality it would be difficult to see how the State can carry on and honor its obligations to its public servants, pensioners and local creditors.
In this case the Greek Government may have to resort to printing a new Drachma that will run in parallel to the Euro. Effectively Greece will have a duel currency system.
Such a system has existed for many years in Central and Latin America where local currency is legal tender but businesses prefer to transact in US Dollar.
As for Greece being forced out of Europe Juncker has overstated the consequences of a “No” vote as the European Union consists of countries that belong to the Euro area and others such as the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden who have retained their local currency.
Juncker’s comments were made to influence the democratic process in a sovereign nation within the European Union and as such is bordering into the realms of political interference.
These comments will not be the last made over the coming days leading up to Sunday’s referendum vote. Talk of exiting the Eurozone will now be weighing heavy in the thoughts of the Greek electorate. A Vote for “No” campaign will inevitably force the Greek Government to introduce a new local currency whereas a “Yes” vote will condemn Greece to even more austerity and social unrest.
If I was a citizen of Greece I would be very split on how to vote and I assume the majority of Greeks would probably have the same feelings. Logically for all the promise of more austerity a “Yes” vote at least maintains the status quo. It can only be hoped that post the election the decision makers in Brussel and Berlin take note of what has gone and make a serious effort to tackle the European Union’s chronic debt problem.
My heart however is telling me to vote “No” and take my chances outside the Eurozone. If the Germans want their money back then they need to address the concerns and worries of the Greek people.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/29062015EURUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1367
Target 2: 1.1103
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132
Daily control level: 1.0950
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/30062015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5850
Target 2: 1.5624
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 1.5800
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/30062015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.42
Target 2: 121.64
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.89
Daily control level: 124.50
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/30062015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9356
Target 2: 0.9140
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 0.9430
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/30062015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2495
Target 2: 1.2311
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092
Daily control level: 1.2300
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/30062015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7765
Target 2: 0.7591
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.7770
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/30062015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1192.12
Target 2: 1167.90
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.11
Daily control level: 1170.45
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/30062015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 59.65
Target 2: 56.89
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.38
Daily control level: 59.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.07.2015
Last night the deadline for a EUR1.6 billion payment came and went with no payment made by the Greek Government.
With further deadlines of larger payments to the ECB on the horizon in the middle of July the door is ajar and a Grexit is becoming a strong possibility.
So with so much at stake Greeks last night took to the streets of Athens and demonstrated outside the Greek Parliament at Sygntama Square.
However it was not the pro Government supporters who turned up but supports of the “YES” campaign.
There are now genuine fears that a “NO” vote would send Greece down the road to bankruptcy and international financial isolation.
This process has already started. As Greeks line up to withdraw their EUR 60 daily limit from fast emptying cash machines the news that the European Central Bank has effectively cut the Greek Banking system adrift will only heighten the sense of anxiety among the general public.
There are hopes that between now and Sunday a rabbit is pulled out of the hat and an agreement is found but the Europeans are now in no mood to compromise and the Greek Prime Minister has left himself with no room to manoeuvre.
So we are now heading into Sunday and the biggest decision the history of the European project and the recent history of Greece.
If the “NO” vote is victorious the Greek people will have to endure some harsher times before there is any economic recovery.
A “YES” vote will be also be a hollow and bitter victory as Greeks have to complete years of continued austerity.
A “YES” vote would also mean that the Tsipras experiment like most things that burn very bright is soon to be extinguished as the Greek Prime Minister will have little choice but take the decent decision and resign his post.
In reality neither decision to vote “YES” or “NO” solves the countries or even Europe’s problems. If Greece had viable industries and export markets I would go with my heart and urge that the Greek people vote “NO”.
However Greece is no Russia of the late 1990’s. Set adrift from Europe I worry on the social impact that a “NO” vote will have. With huge youth unemployment a no vote will only act as a spur for an acceleration of emigration of the countries young and brightest to the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Canada and USA.
My head says vote “YES” and renegotiate within the European club so as to make the Greek debt viable in the longer term.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/01072015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1274
Target 2: 1.1018
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128
Daily control level: 1.1275
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/01072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5822
Target 2: 1.5602
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5800
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/01072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.31
Target 2: 121.67
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.82
Daily control level: 124.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/01072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9458
Target 2: 0.9242
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 0.9430
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/01072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2584
Target 2: 1.2396
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 1.2350
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/01072015UDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7788
Target 2: 0.7618
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7660
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/01072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1184.58
Target 2: 1160.36
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.11
Daily control level: 1187.90
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/01072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 60.41
Target 2: 57.54
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44
Daily control level: 59.70
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.07.2015
Today at 1:30pm London time the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Non-Farm Employment Change.
This statistic measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
Moreover, this crucial economic data is published shortly after the end of the month. The combination of earliness and importance causes this monthly release to have high impact on the foreign exchange markets.
The traders’ concerns about this figure come from the fact that job creation is a significant indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of overall economic activity.
The oscillations in the value of the indicator, which has been positive since November 2010, suggested tendency towards higher values during the second half of 2014 and 2015.
The last released statistic reached 280,000 individuals whereas the consensus number for the last month amounts to 231,000. If the actual figure turns out to be higher than what forecasts suggest, this release is likely to have a positive impact on the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Since Non-Farm Employment Change Report will be made public at the same time as data on U.S. monthly unemployment rate, USD currency pairs might experience higher volatility.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/02072015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1180
Target 2: 1.0926
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0180
Daily control level: 1.1150
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/02072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5723
Target 2: 1.5503
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5800
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/02072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.98
Target 2: 122.33
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.83
Daily control level: 124.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/020715USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9586
Target 2: 0.9372
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 0.9230
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/02072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2686
Target 2: 1.2492
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.2350
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/02072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7729
Target 2: 0.7559
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7750
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/02072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1180.37
Target 2: 1156.03
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.17
Daily control level: 1179.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/02072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 58.40
Target 2: 55.36
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.52
Daily control level: 59.70
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.07.2015
Today at 9.30am London time Markit Economics will release the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United Kingdom.
Markit Economics is an independent, global provider of some of the world’s most significant business surveys. Its indicators are closely watched by the financial market participants since they provide some of the earliest signals of economic performance and hence hints on possible economic policies.
Calculation of the PMI is based on data obtained through the survey of purchasing managers in the services industry. Respondents are asked to rate the relative level of general business conditions such as employment, production, prices, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
The quick reaction of businesses to market conditions and the fact that their purchasing managers have the most relevant insight into the company’s view of these conditions are the reasons why the PMI is a leading indicator.
Therefore, this release is likely to have high impact on the value of the British pound.
Furthermore, values above 50.0 indicate industry expansion whereas values below this threshold suggest contraction.
Services PMI figures for the UK have been ranging constantly from 54.9 to 62.5 since June 2013. In the previous period of reference this index reached 56.5 level while the forecasts for the current period are more optimistic amounting to 57.4.
The actual level of this monthly indicator beating the expectations is interpreted as a good sign for the currency.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/03072015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1207
Target 2: 1.0959
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.1150
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/03072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5712
Target 2: 1.5498
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.5735
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/03072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.88
Target 2: 122.08
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.85
Daily control level: 124.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/03072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9535
Target 2: 0.9329
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 0.9502
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/03072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2639
Target 2: 1.2439
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.2350
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/03072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7721
Target 2: 0.7543
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7640
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/03072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1177.53
Target 2: 1154.01
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.76
Daily control level: 1179.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/03072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 57.94
Target 2: 54.88
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.53
Daily control level: 57.80
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.07.2015
As I wrote this article last night, the first indications announced on Greek television would be that the “No” campaign would be victorious in this much anticipated referendum.
The early reports would soon prove to be a correct as the “No” campaign romped home to a resounding and famous victory. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras must right now be feeling vindicated in his decision to hold a hastily put together referendum.
Although this vote is a testament to the strength of Western democratic principles which were first established in Greece over 2000 years ago, this vote has also damaged the European project.
The ballot question was confusing and related to an austerity deal that was no longer on the table. The Greeks are the great romantics of the European continent. Never giving up hope and trusting their beliefs and reasoning would help them win the day.
This has been proven in history be it in battle against the Persian Empire where a small population endeavored to beat a superior foe. During the Second World War the Greeks where victorious in defeat against the superior numbers of German, Italian and Bulgarian armies. More recently the Greek Government proved the Western press, and in particular the BBC wrong by hosting a successful Olympic Games in 2004. In the same year the Greek national soccer team against the odds lifted the European Cup of Nations in Portugal.
So the Greeks are a gritty people who when agitated or when they have their backs against the wall can move mountains and achieve the impossible. Just look at what Alexander of Macedon achieved at such a tender age as he lived his father’s dream and established a Greek mega empire.
I may not agree with much of Alexis Tsipras believes in but he is charismatic and is ready for a fight. However Alexis is no Alexander and Varoufakis is no Hephaestion. The odds are just stack too high against this SYRIZA administration.
These leads us to Monday. The Euro project is now under serious threat. For the German Chancellor Angela Merkel the Greek vote will come as sickening news. Only last week the head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that there was no other deal on the table.
Can Angela Merkel and the rest of the Eurozone now make an accommodation with this Greek Government? With so much bad blood between both sides and with all goodwill, credibility and trust for the Greek Government having evaporated it is hard to see how the talks can resume.
Furthermore, is it possible for the Europeans to now offer generous terms to the Greek government in full knowledge that a cave in to the demand of Tsipras will only store up further trouble down the road.
Across the Mediterranean Sea in Spain, the Podemos party is headed by the equally charismatic and radical leftist Pablo Iglesias Turrión. A victory for SYRIZA and a softening of the European position will act as a hammer blow to Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy Brey and a rallying call to Podemos. Ultimately this could lead to Podemos taking power at the Spanish general election that will take place this winter. A Podemos Government in Spain will make the Greek issue look like a nonevent.
Back to the referendum today’s vote has been framed by Tsipras as a victory for democracy. Furthermore with the power of the people backing his negotiating position the European partners can no longer defy the democratic choices of the people. The Greek Premier does have a point. The European Union should not just be an economic union but also a political and more importantly social union. There needs to be social justice and economic mobility for all of Europe’s citizens.
Unfortunately the construction of the Euro was to a German design. As such the single currency benefited German business which is heavily reliant on exports. With the Euro depreciating over the past five years the German Government was able to drag its economy out of recession through the sale of cheaper goods to the rest of Europe.
Back to the democratic process Alexis Tsipras has to recognize for all of the Euros shortcomings he cannot impose his will against the wishes of the citizens of the rest of Europe. The Governments of the other European countries have been elected under trust. Why should European the tax payers be made to fund a Greek economy that has been failing for decades.
This leads me back to Monday. The resounding “OXI” does not solve the immediate crisis which is a lack of banking liquidity. With as little as Euro 1 billion left in Greek banks there has been an announcement that banking clients cannot withdraw money from safe deposit boxes.
This is a major alarm bell for that reminds me of what happened in Cyprus back in 2013. There remains Euro 150 billion of client deposits in Greek Banks. However most of the larger account holders have already taken balances over the Euro 100,000 safety net out of the country. I would not surprise to see a bank bail in of accounts above EUR 10,000.
So where does this leave Greece and more importantly the Euro project. To let Greece fall out of the Euro would signal the beginning of the end of the single currency. There has to be a compromise between both sides. A failure to support Greece now will cause a humanitarian crisis within the Unions borders. A European project that was created to bring hope and peace to Europe will see one of its members unable to feed its people and acquire the medication that an ageing population desperately needs.
For all the efforts of the prior Greek Governments the debt was never viable. The IMF only last week stated that the Greek debt needed to be substantially restructured. From the very first day of this phase of the crisis some 5 months back, I put forward the idea of extending the terms of the Greek debt into perpetual bonds. There is an economic cost but no debt is actually written off.
There are claims that Ireland and Portugal have been success stories of the European austerity project. Have they really? These two countries together with Italy have massive debt to GDP levels. A new deal for Greece could become part of a new deal for Europe that once and for all puts Europe’s addiction to debt into rehab.
So who are the real winners and losers of Sundays vote. I can only think of one, my colleague Elena. We made a bet on the Greek referendum outcome. She bet that “No” vote would win. I hope she takes Drachmas?
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/06072015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1111
Target 2: 1.0857
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127
Daily control level: 1.1150
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/06072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5656
Target 2: 1.5440
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.5650
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/06072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 122.73
Target 2: 120.94
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.89
Daily control level: 123.25
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/06072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9532
Target 2: 0.9324
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 0.9500
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/06072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2694
Target 2: 1.2492
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.2530
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/06072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7721
Target 2: 0.7543
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7640
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/06072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1186.19
Target 2: 1162.89
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.65
Daily control level: 1166.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/06072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 56.50
Target 2: 53.28
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.61
Daily control level: 57.80
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.07.2015
Sunday’s surprising news that the Greek public had voted “No” in the Greek referendum was followed on Monday by the news that the combative Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis had resigned his position.
Did he go under his own free will or was he pushed? For certain the European Finance Ministers and especially the German Wolfgang Schäuble will be relieved to see him go. However Varoufakis was good value and it is a shame that his expressive language and cool demeanour will no longer be a feature of the European scene.
Varoufakis has been replaced by the academic Euclid Tsakalotos as the Minister of Finance. Mr. Tsakalotos is much more softly spoken and measured in his comments when compared to his predecessor. However under that mild demeanour and English accent is another strong and intelligent mind. There is no doubt that after Varoufakis had done his job of softening up the Europeans, it is now the job of Tsakalotos to lower the tone but at the same time negotiate hard.
Mr. Tsakalotos will need to use all his skills and experience to bring about a compromise solution to the Greek debt crisis. The Greek Prime Minister will be hoping too that Tsakalotos could reinstate the burnt bridges and bring back the trust that was lost with the announcement of the referendum.
The Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras has a view that the Greek referendum victory has strengthen his negotiating hand. The Greek public and the bosses of the Greek banks are hoping that he can deliver on his promise to construct and agree on a compromise formula over the next few days.
However it is still very uncertain if the Europeans will agree. As always the head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem has been dismissive of the Greek side. The French side however has been more conciliatory in their position. What is of greater concern is an apparent hardening of the position of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Europe is now becoming increasingly divided. One side being resigned or actually encouraging the Greek to take a decision and leave the Euro area. On the other hand, Governments that fear for the consequences of a Grexit are concerned about the consequence could be if Greece finally and after 5 wasted years falls out of the Eurozone.
Although the Lehman’s debacle in balance sheet terms was roughly double the size of the current Greek debt, unraveling the after effects of a debt default and Grexit is still unclear. This is one of the key cards that the Greek Prime holds. It is his hope that the Europeans will therefore be forced to act so as to mitigate the unknown or likely consequences of Greece falling out of the Euro.
Furthermore if Greece ends up having no choice but to exit the Euro, the cost to the Europeans will be very high. Not only do European tax payers lose some Euro 330 billion but there will also be the longer term costs of shoring up the Euro area.
Once Greece exits the Euro area, the concept of the irrevocability of Eurozone membership ceases to exist. This will lead to added pressure on other periphery countries and puts at risk Portugal, Span and Italy.
Europe and by this I mean the Germans will be forced to shore up the defenses so that contagion does not bring other countries down. The cost of further fiscal and banking union will dwarf the cost of keeping Greece in the Euro.
One final factor that needs to be addressed is that of Geo-politics. Greece is at the frontier of Europe’s eastern border. The neighbourhood that Greece resides in is far from stable. An exit from the Euro will leave a key NATO country exposed and without allies in the region. The concern will be that a European rejection will send Greece into the arms of the Russian bear.
There has been some good news over the past few days in that all Greek political parties have backed any agreement that will be reached in Brussels. This eases the issue of implementation.
It is now time for Europe to grasp the key issue of solidarity. The Euro was a flawed creation and continues to be a single currency that is not fit for purpose. It is time that the Euro’s deficiencies are recognized and fixes implemented for the sake of all of Europe’s citizens.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1174
Target 2: 1.0936
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5701
Target 2: 1.5505
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.5650
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.89
Target 2: 121.72
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.83
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9523
Target 2: 0.9325
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 0.9385
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2748
Target 2: 1.2550
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.2530
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7857
Target 2: 0.7411
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7550
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1181.13
Target 2: 1158.93
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.10
Daily control level: 1162.70
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 54.35
Target 2: 51.13
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.61
Daily control level: 56.65
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.07.2015
With the deadline looming for the Greek debt proposal due no later than tomorrow morning and with crucial European summits due to take place over the weekend the level of uncertainty and anxiety continues to blanket Greece.
This uncertainty has forced the Greek Government to extend the limit of EUR 60 a day ATM allowance until Monday. After Monday, the fate of the Greek people is in the hands of European and Greek politicians who have shown themselves incapable of making correct decisions.
The move to extend the banking restrictions follows on from the decision by the European Central Bank to put on hold any further Emergency Liquidity Assistance until the debt crisis is resolved.
With the Greek Prime Minister saying that he will present plans on Thursday to his European partners the end game of this phase of the Greek crisis is now very close.
With the creditor’s position now hardening a failure of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to take into account the gravity of the situation will lead to dire consequences and immediate hardship for the Greek nation.
One can only assume that a failure to broker a compromise solution after what has been 5 wasted and fruitless months of negotiations is that Alexis Tsipras never had an intention of striking a deal. The bottom line is the Greek Premier wanted from the outset is total European capitulation or a return to the Drachma.
This may be a very harsh view. However the manner of the negotiation which can be summed up as a win or bust strategy was never going to work. There was just too much resistance within the European Union to what they saw a radical left Government that was intent to turn around the order of things.
The Europeans made mistakes too. The original sin was of course the creation of a Frankenstein currency that destroyed the economies of the periphery European nations. The only nation to really benefit from the creation of the Euro was Germany which took the opportunity of the cheap single currency to export its way out of recession at the expense of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, aka the PIIGS.
The debt deal that was constructed by the creditors was designed not to assist Greece but was engineered with the assistance of the IMF had only one aim in mind. That was to get the German and French banks off the hook.
There was no attempt to help the Greek people and Greek business to grow themselves out of the mess that corrupt and inept politicians in partnership with the foreign banks had got the country into.
There is a need of course to reform the public sector and pension system but Greece is a country that has no safety net. The austerity that was imposed on the country only damaged the Greek public. The German and French bankers and the leaders of the political elite of the PASOK and Nea Democratia party continue to live their life of privilege as they enjoyed their lavish villas and drive around in their high performance German automobiles.
The election victory that SYRIZA achieved some 5 months back was inevitable as the Greek public had enough of the wasted opportunities of its political elite. When Tsipras took power, he proclaimed that reform was at the centre of his agenda. However evidence of this is nowhere to be seen.
My real concern is not for Greek or European politicians but for the tax payers of Europe who have paid for the decisions and mistakes made in their name. Without doubt there is a need for change in Europe. I just hope that the politicians either side of this current divide recognize that they have an obligation to Europe’s citizens to get us out of this mess.
I personal would like nothing more but never have to write about this subject again as it has become rather tedious.
I therefore urge all sides to compromise enough to get us through to Monday. Once there, the real work of reforming Europe begins.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1203
Target 2: 1.0949
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127
Daily control level: 1.0900
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5469
Target 2: 1.5249
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5650
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.67
Target 2: 119.71
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.98
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9554
Target 2: 0.9350
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 0.9385
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2846
Target 2: 1.2644
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7518
Target 2: 0.7338
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 0.7370
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1170.80
Target 2: 1145.88
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.46
Daily control level: 1175.30
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 53.59
Target 2: 50.05
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.77
Daily control level: 54.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.07.2015
Officials at the Greek Finance Ministry worked late into the night to put together a proposal that could be presented to its partners in the Eurozone and the IMF.
Assistance in the preparation of the document was given by civil servants from the French Ministry of Finance. This assistance has highlighted the positive and very pro Greek stance the French Government has taken.
The French and to a lesser extent the Italian Governments have been more conciliatory than their German partners towards the Greek Government. One is reminded from a “good cop, bad cop” scenario when one views the relationship France and Germany have to Greece. However Fräulein Merkel may disagree and say that all the German Government was doing was giving the Greek Government a taste of reality through a lot of tough love.
With news being leaked of the contents of the referendum, one will be very surprised to hear that what the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras is now offering and what was signed off by the Greek Government very much resembles what the creditors had put on the table before.
In fact, the Greek Proposal sets out much harsher conditions in many areas with an increase of austerity from EUR 8 to 13 billion. That the Greek Government has been the starting point of 5 months of market turmoil and that has seen its economy nose dive, leaving the Greek people in a state of perpetual hardship does lead me to ask a couple of pertinent questions.
Why on earth did the Greek Government waste all that time in negotiating and why was a contentious referendum staged at a huge cost only for the democratic vote of the people to be ignored.
Not one for conspiracy theories but my opinion is that all that has gone on before was a theatrical show for the citizens of the European Union. The show was staged to sensitize the voting and tax paying public of this Union to the idea that reform is needed.
Conflict always creates chaos. However, conflict can also be a strong catalyst for change and reform. The Greek fiasco came at a time when the vulnerabilities of the Euro project became more and more apparent.
The Greek debt crisis was that catalyst and at the same time the ultimate test of the Euro which highlighted these imbalances and negative economic effects. It can be hoped that work will now begin that plugs the gaps and fixes the problems which the single currency creates.
Even if an agreement is signed off over the weekend, the Greek economy will be in for a rough couple of years. However with an appropriate amount of debt relief that brings the country’s obligations within manageable and viable levels we may just see the Greek economy in a few years’ time that is comprehensively reformed and one of the most modern with the European Union.
As such this is a template for two much bigger projects. These are France and Italy. Both countries are in drastic need of reform. The benefit of the Greek issue has put European reform on the agenda. It is to be seen if the Europeans are courageous enough not to squander this opportunity.
So how does all this leave Greece? Yesterday I wrote that I viewed the events of the past week as an orchestrated attempt by the Greek SYRIZA Government to trigger a Grexit. Proof of this would be the presentation of a plan which would have been rejected out of hand.
That Alexis Tsipras from what early reports indicate has put forward an acceptable proposal shows that he is serious about getting a deal signed off. Is the Greek Prime Minister the biggest bluffer in the history of poker? Was his hand about to be called and did he fold in the knowledge that he could not win? It is not the simple.
What Tsipras and recently resigned Finance Minister Yianis Varoufakis achieved was to get the debate about Greek debt and European debt sustainability finally on the table. Moreover, they have linked this to one important issue. How can a country reform itself without destroying an economy?
Furthermore, Alexis Tsipras has also driven a wedge that has split the creditors into two groups. One being the IMF, France and in the background Italy which wants to see debt viability as a key economic necessity and the other hand we have the Germans who keep banging the drum for austerity.
There have also been splits elsewhere, most notably in Greece. The divide in the Greek public was shown during the recent referendum campaign. However what is of greater concern is the rapture with the ruling SYRIZA party. The split will be apparent today when the Greek Parliament votes on the legislation that ties this country’s future to the Euro.
Today’s story is not over just yet.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1160
Target 2: 1.0900
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130
Daily control level: 1.0990
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5488
Target 2: 1.5268
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5350
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 122.32
Target 2: 120.33
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99
Daily control level: 120.40
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9581
Target 2: 0.9631
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 0.9500
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2802
Target 2: 1.2606
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7535
Target 2: 0.7357
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7370
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1171.16
Target 2: 1147.88
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.64
Daily control level: 1175.30
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 54.32
Target 2: 50.66
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83
Daily control level: 54.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.07.2015
Talks between European leaders lasted some 15 hours as an attempt was made to solve the Gordian Knot that is the Greek Financial crisis.
The Greek Prime Minister is making desperate attempts to stave off his countries bankruptcy, however, the group of countries led by Germany and Finland have adopted a very harsh bargaining position. The Greek Government is being told to either ditch its principles or leaves the Euro.
Alexis Tsipras must be feeling a great deal of strain this morning and it is obvious that this kind of pressure would make the best of us buckle under the pressure.
The referendum victory of the “No” campaign did give the Greek Government a positive momentum. However, the mood soon changed as the hard line that the Europeans took left the Greek Government split and the Greek public deflated.
With the German Chancellor telling reporters that she simply does not trust this Greek Government to stick to any agreement, it is hard to see how Alexis Tsipras can keep his job. Especially as back home in Greece he called an unnecessary referendum on austerity but then promptly decided to ignore the people’s vote. As for the SYRIZA party, there is a high probability that the internal conflict that was generated by the ongoing discussions between Greece and the countries creditors could see this alliance of the radical left fracture and break up.
From a backdrop of haemorrhaging support at home and outright opposition from abroad, the Greek Prime Minister now has to push through one of the most contentious pieces of legislation that has ever been passed by the Greek Parliament.
What the Europeans are asking from the Greek Government is a total surrender. Only by agreeing to the European demands can Alexis Tsipras hope to receive some Euro 80 to 85 billion from the Europeans. Without this new third bailout, the Greek Government will be cut adrift and have no choice but to leave the Euro area.
Unfortunately for a long time successive Greek Governments have shied away from taking the harsh decisions which were needed to reform the country’s economy. It is very ironic that the Europeans and the IMF will now call upon a Greek Prime Minister who belongs to the radical left of the political spectrum to be their instrument to inflict austerity and with it misery and pain onto the citizens of his country.
The Europeans and namely the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has shown no mercy to the Greece. Not only does the German and European Governments want legislation passed by Wednesday but they also require constant oversight that the Greeks are sticking to the word of the law.
To drive home their message, the Europeans have also told the SYRIZA Government to reverse legislation that it passed on the outset of taking power. This includes once again closing down the state-run Greek national television station and the sacking of 4,000 public workers. The most notable symbol of these sackings would be state cleaners that had been made redundant by the previous administration.
As I come the end of this it is now reported that a deal on Greece has been agreed. Is this a good deal for Greece and Europe. Only time will tell.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015EURUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1288
Target 2: 1.1032
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128
Daily control level: 1.1200
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5623
Target 2: 1.5399
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112
Daily control level: 1.5350
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 123.77
Target 2: 121.65
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06
Daily control level: 122.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9489
Target 2: 0.9277
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 0.9320
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2761
Target 2: 1.2555
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7531
Target 2: 0.7351
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 0.7400
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1174.86
Target 2: 1151.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.68
Daily control level: 1168.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 54.01
Target 2: 50.31
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.85
Daily control level: 51.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.07.2015
The Greek Prime Minister must be in a lonely place this morning. After caving into the demands of the countries creditors, Alexis Tsipras now has to sell the plan to the Greek Parliament.
The package of additional aid will only add to the Greek debt pile. This additional debt does have a very high price as the Greek Government has to implement a reform and austerity package that will hit the ordinary working Greek citizen very hard.
The reforms to be fair are needed and overdue. For some five years, successive Greek Governments had failed to pass legislation. This legislation was linked to the two prior agreed bailouts.
The failure to have these reforms implemented has wasted 5 precious years. This was due to nothing more than the cowardice of the previous Greek administrations who did not have the fortitude to finish the job.
Now, it is left to Alexis Tsipras, the once poster boy of the radical left of Greek politics to push through Parliament 5 years of reforms in two days of business.
I am all for reform, Greece is in need of a radical upgrade. However, the manner by which these reforms were imposed on a country does leave a bitter taste in one’s mouth.
The German Government flanked by the Dutch, Fins, Slovaks and Lithuanians took a very harsh and somewhat aggressive stance.
Any idea of European solidarity was ignored as the North European Nations put the pressure on the Greek leadership. With the likes of the Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico saying that he would show Greece “No mercy” one has to question if this European project is one that is worth fighting for.
It would appear the United Kingdom made the correct choice by electing to choose sovereignty over the financial straight jacket that the European single currency imposes.
Greece made a mistake by choosing to join what is currently a failed Euro project. The Greek political leadership early in the last decade decided to fudge their way into the single currency.
Although there were instant rewards of rapid growth, the catalyst of the new found prosperity was built on debt. When the debt became unsustainable the Greek economy collapsed with tragic consequences.
This leads us to the events of the coming week. Alexis Tsipras now has to force through the Greek Parliament legislation that a few days ago he would have never contemplated.
That the Greek Prime Minister has totally ignored the will of the Greek people who voted in a referendum against further austerity is unjust and a travesty of democracy.
Through its actions, the Greek Government crippled the banking system. With the banks no longer functioning the economy is left in limbo. The cost an economy closing down for the best part of 3 weeks is astronomical.
To take the risk and challenge the countries creditors but them to meekly capitulate once the pressure came puts a big question mark over the current Greek Prime Minister.
Is Alexis Tsipras the safe pair of hands Greece needs? Or is he at best inexperienced or at worst a gambler?
Once the Parliament has the final say on the bill and the bailout is approved by all the national governments of the Eurozone, the question is who in Greece should ensure that the agreed plan is implemented.
Do the creditors and the Greek public give Alexis Tsipras a second chance or does Greece need new leadership?
I think the idea of an experienced hand taking charge and becoming the Greek Prime Minister would be a mistake. Greece needs to look forward and not backward.
The Greek Government will also be constrained by what it can and cannot do as it has to function under very strict oversight.
Therefore, the idea of causing fresh political upheaval by calling for elections would be a mistake.
It would be far better that Alexis Tsipras seeks out members of the opposition who he could work with and form a national unity Government.
Is there any realistic alternative?
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1133
Target 2: 1.0867
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133
Daily control level: 1.1200
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1407215GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5593
Target 2: 1.5377
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.5350
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.50
Target 2: 122.38
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06
Daily control level: 122.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015USDCHFH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9637
Target 2: 0.9425
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 0.9320
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015USDCADH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2765
Target 2: 1.2551
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7495
Target 2: 0.7315
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 0.7400
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1169.03
Target 2: 1145.97
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.53
Daily control level: 1168.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 53.82
Target 2: 50.16
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83
Daily control level: 51.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.07.2015
The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has overnight found an unlikely friendly voice in the form of the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF has voiced concern over the levels of the Greek Public debt and said the outstanding obligations had become “highly unsustainable”.
According to the IMF the level of Greek public debt would over the next two years reach an astronomical figure of some 200% of GDP.
The IMF went on further to say that the optimistic projections of achieving a budget surplus of 3.5% of GDP was not achievable.
The European Union has given the Greek Government a stark choice. Either pass draconian legislation or be forced to leave the Eurozone.
Although reforms are needed, the IMF claims that without any form of debt forgiveness it would be impossible for the Greek economy to grow sufficiently so as to drag the country out of what has become an economic downturn that can only be described as a tragic depression.
The German Government has insisted that the IMF oversee the implementation of these reforms. What is farcical is that the European Union’s enforcer has come out so vehemently against a plan which it says will do more harm than good.
The reforms need to happen as only through radical change can the Greek economy transform itself from the sick man of Europe into a thriving tiger of the Balkans.
What the European’s have proposed, however, is not a vision for future Greek growth but for financial slavery is.
The German Government all too well knows the consequences of the imposition of harsh economic and vindictive penalties on a country.
The German nation suffered horribly after the First World War due to the harsh terms of surrender imposed by the victorious allies. This wrong was only put right after a Second World War when the allies this time forgave the German debt.
Greece is located at the crossroads of Asia and Europe and the focal point of the Balkans. Does the German Government really believe that the imposition of such draconian measures on Greek people will add to political stability at a time when there are fires burning in North Africa, Middle East and the Ukraine?
Greece will eventually recover. The Greek people are a resilient bunch. Under the right conditions, their entrepreneurial spirit helps them excel in business. Greek immigrant populations in the United Kingdom, Germany, USA and Australia have created businesses and wealth. It can only be hoped that if the right conditions exist, the Greek nation will drag themselves out of this abyss into an era of new prosperity.
The road back however will be long and painful.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1143
Target 2: 1.0873
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135
Daily control level: 1.1080
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5751
Target 2: 1.5519
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116
Daily control level: 1.5450
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.46
Target 2: 122.34
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9554
Target 2: 0.9340
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 0.9400
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2824
Target 2: 1.2628
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7543
Target 2: 0.7359
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092
Daily control level: 0.7400
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1166.36
Target 2: 1143.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.43
Daily control level: 1160.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 55.29
Target 2: 51.49
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90
Daily control level: 51.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.07.2015
Greek members of Parliament talked late into the night in what turned out at times to be a strongly contested debate over the country’s much-maligned debt deal.
Although the vote to pass the legislation was never in doubt the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had concerns that the fallout of his humiliating climb down would fracture and fragment the ruling SYRIZA party.
As expected the rupture within SYRIZA was large with many SYRIZA MP’s from the far left platform of the Party voting against the Governments legislation.
The most outspoken of the critics are Zoi Konstantopoulou who is the Speaker of the Greek Parliament and the former Finance Minister, Yianis Varoufakis. They were joined by other leading SYRIZA members who showed their contempt for the legislation by voting against it.
With SYRIZA now seemingly split between the moderates and radical left factions, Alexis Tsipras will now have to battle to hold is political party together. What remains of SYRIZA must be fearful of the political future of their party.
Tsipras was always the dominating force of the party. Therefore, if the Greek Prime Minister decides that he cannot go on in office and implement legislation that he clearly dislikes there is a strong possibility that the raptures in SYRIZA will force upon it a terminal decline.
The agreement that was reached in Brussels has been given a frosty reception both in Greece and by the International Monetary Fund. It is now becoming the acceptable view that some sort of debt adjustment must be made that will give the Greek economy space and time to breath and grow. However, the German Government and their friends within the European Union have so far blocked such a move.
This stance now means that Alexis Tsipras must take ownership of the legislation and implement it in its entirety in the face of stiff internal opposition. For Alexis Tsipras to be successful in his goal he will need to build bridges within the Greek Parliament with his foes in the New Democracy and PASOK political parties.
With a national unity Government in place the implementation of the much-needed reforms will be smoother as the administration will be able to marginalize the more extreme elements of the politics that can be found to the left and right of the political spectrum.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1607215EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1083
Target 2: 1.0807
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0138
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5752
Target 2: 1.5516
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 1.5575
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.81
Target 2: 122.71
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.05
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9625
Target 2: 0.9407
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 0.9400
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1607215USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3040
Target 2: 1.2844
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7471
Target 2: 0.7283
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 0.7490
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1159.09
Target 2: 1135.57
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.76
Daily control level: 1160.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015CLQ5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 55.29
Target 2: 51.49
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90
Daily control level: 51.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.07.2015
Today the German Bundestag will vote to approve the latest Greek bailout deal. The probability that the endorsement of 86 billion euro package will go through. However it is becoming harder to persuade German taxpayers that Greece is the country which is worth helping.
There is a growing opposition even in the Angela Merkel’s own party, which she will need to persuade for the bailout approval. With the European project under threat, Greece exiting the Union could cause a further domino effect.
After the Greek Parliament approved the new bailout terms on Thursday. Finland’s parliament followed the suit yesterday. Several other countries are expected to raise their voice on the subject within the next few days.
Greece is in urge to receive financial aid as due date for the 4.2 billion euro repayment to the European Central Bank is coming on Monday. In addition, the installment in arrears to IMF amounting to about 2 billion euro have to be repaid as soon as possible.
In the meantime, the European Central Bank has decided to raise interim emergency lending to the Greek Banks in order to keep them afloat. The doubts however remain whether the cash-strapped country will be able to fulfill its obligations under the new agreement.
International Monetary fund has also expressed its doubts regarding the subject, saying that unless significant haircuts on the Greek debt will occur, it will be impossible for the country to recover.
The Greek Finance Minister himself has constantly noted that he does not believe in the new bailout deal and signed it because there were no other options. He has consequently lost support within his SYRIZA party as well as of many Greek citizens, who felt betrayed by the minister not fulfilling his election promises and accepting further austerity measures, which some believe will suffocate the fragile Greek economy.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0995
Target 2: 1.0753
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0121
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5722
Target 2: 1.5488
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117
Daily control level: 1.5575
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 125.10
Target 2: 123.18
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.9641
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9676
Target 2: 0.9476
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 0.9400
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2956
Target 2: 1.0105
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7492
Target 2: 0.7314
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7490
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1156.55
Target 2: 1134.32
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.115
Daily control level: 1160.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 58.97
Target 2: 55.11
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.9314
Daily control level: 51.00
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.07.2015
Gold has tumbled over 4% in the early hours of this week opening. The precious metal was trading below 1100.00 price for the first time during the past 5 years, reaching the low of 1086.00 per ounce.
The price slump was caused by the speculative selling in the Shanghai Stock exchange, therefore was not triggered by a simple price discovery. It is believed that a major hedge fund selling its holdings in the early Asian session.
“It was down to speculation here, someone taking advantage of the low liquidity environment,” Victor Thianpiriya, commodity strategist at ANZ, told CNBC. “Around 5 tonnes of gold was sold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange within the space of two minutes between 09:29 and 09:30. The daily volume last week was about 25 tonnes,” he observed. “It clearly wasn’t driven by fundamentals, because the U.S. dollar didn’t move at that time”.
Chinese Central Bank, one of the biggest gold buyers globally, has reported on Friday that its gold reserves were more than half of expected level. The Financial Times reported, the Central Bank’s Gold reserves were 1,658 tonnes (53.31 million fine troy ounces) as of the end of June, comparing to 1,054 tonnes reserves in April 2009.
Positive US economic data and the Federal Reserve continues affirmation that the US interest rate will be increased by the end of this year had added to the Gold price weakness, significantly influencing the reduction of the demand for the precious metal.
Analysts expect the price to continue to decline in the near future.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0949
Target 2: 1.0713
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5717
Target 2: 1.5481
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 1.5575
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.94
Target 2: 123.10
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.9239
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9704
Target 2: 0.9512
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 0.9400
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707USDCADH41.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3072
Target 2: 1.2870
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7473
Target 2: 0.7289
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092
Daily control level: 0.7490
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1147.80
Target 2: 1118.74
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.53
Daily control level: 1160.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007BRENTH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 59.00
Target 2: 55.28
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8586
Daily control level: 51.00
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.07.2015
Yesterday Greece’s sovereign credit rating was lifted by two notches as the agreement with creditors was reached and overdue debt to International Monetary Fund was settled. Standard & Poor’s rating agency has raised the Greece’s rating from CCC- to CCC+. The agency also revised country’s outlook from negative to stable.
The rating however still leaves the country in the junk status with the only optimism that it goes in the right direction.
The emergency bridging loan of 7 billion euro Greece has received last week with subsequent settling of its debt obligations was one of the reasons for the rating increase. In addition, a promise of the new three-year bailout deal has convinced the S&P that “its default on its stock of commercial debt is no longer inevitable” within the next 12 months.
According to the agency the possibility of the Greece exiting Eurozone has now fallen to below 50%, with the risks high still.
On Monday the Greek banks have begun operations after being closed for three weeks. The same day the country met 4.2 billion Euro deadline to the European Central Bank as well as settled 2 billion euro to International Monetary Fund. The payment of 700 million euro interest was also settled with its creditors.
In the return for the bailout aid, Greece has agreed to implement further austerity measures among which are tax increases and spending reduction. In addition, a massive sale of the state assets to the private investors should be put into effect.
The new 86 billion euro agreement is still awaiting the approval by some of the European Members parliaments. It is expected that negotiations for the new program will be concluded within a month.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0937
Target 2: 1.0711
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207GBPUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5671
Target 2: 1.5445
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 1.5575
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 125.04
Target 2: 123.26
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8939
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9734
Target 2: 0.9556
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.9400
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207USDCADH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3069
Target 2: 1.2875
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7457
Target 2: 0.7281
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7490
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207GOLDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1113.36
Target 2: 1083.74
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.81
Daily control level: 1160.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 58.40
Target 2: 54.76
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8586
Daily control level: 51.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.07.2015
This morning at 9:30 am London time, the U.K. Office for National Statistics will release the monthly Retail Sales figures.
This month the data is expected to rise further to 0.4%, comparing to 0.2% of the previous release. The retail sales advance is supported by the growth of the nation’s discretionary spending ability and also encouraged by the decline in the inflation levels. In addition, the earnings growth is picking up the pace which positively influences the consumer sentiment. It is currently at the highest levels since the economic crisis of 2009.
Should the release confirm or exceed the expectations that would likely give a further boost to the boost to the strengthening British Pound.
The current luck of stability in currencies and unpredictability of the stock market, could cause the investments to consider switching to the British Pound shortly, as it provides relative stability.
The Retail Sales indicator tracks a change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. In order to have representative figures, the survey takes different business entities as a sample.
This data is released approximately twenty days after a month ends and plays a substantial role as an indicator of the economic activity within the United Kingdom. The consumer spending constitutes for the majority of a country’s economic activity, the announcement will likely to cause high market volatility of the GBP pairs.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1047
Target 2: 1.0807
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5724
Target 2: 1.5496
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114
Daily control level: 1.5575
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 123.83
Target 2: 123.05
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8887
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9687
Target 2: 0.9505
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 0.9400
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3125
Target 2: 1.2925
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7461
Target 2: 0.7289
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 0.7490
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1109.65
Target 2: 1079.27
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.186
Daily control level: 1160.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 57.88
Target 2: 54.44
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.7200
Daily control level: 51.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.07.2015
A preliminary estimate of China’s manufacturing activity has declined to 15-month low, which shows the world second biggest economy is undergoing a slowdown.
The Chinese Purchasing Managers index has slid to 48.2, comparing to the final reading of 49.4 in June. The PMI uses 100-point scale, with the numbers below 50 indicating the industry contraction. For China have been a case since December 2014, with only minor exception in February 2015, when the index has reached 50.1.
The rest of the China’s indexes, such as new orders, output and employment have all continued to shrink.
Concerns over the slowed economic growth in China have prompted policymakers to action. Despite of the several attempts by the People’s Bank of China of the interest rates cuts, with the latest at the end of last month, the situation has not improved much still.
“We think that recent policy easing has yet to fully feed through into stronger economic activity and expect policymakers to respond to signs of weakness by stepping up support in order to prevent growth from slipping much further this year,” Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said.
Australia, as a result, has seen an immediate decline of its currency, with the Aussie hitting 0.7266 low against the US Dollar this morning, the lowest since 2009. China is Australia largest export market for the commodities.
The general demand for the commodities especially such as oil, metals continues to decline sharply.
Bloomberg commodity index was trading at all times low, reaching 94.07 mark yesterday, comparing to just below 140.00 one year ago.
Gold price plunged lower once again, breaching the multi-year resistance line of 1080.00. Brent Oil at the same time has broken 55.50 resistance level.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407EURUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1102
Target 2: 1.0866
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 1.1215
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5632
Target 2: 1.5392
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.76
Target 2: 123.07
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8415
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9678
Target 2: 0.9494
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092
Daily control level: 0.9400
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3135
Target 2: 1.2935
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7442
Target 2: 0.7262
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 0.7490
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1106.42
Target 2: 1074.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.210
Daily control level: 1160.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 57.08
Target 2: 53.98
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5543
Daily control level: 51.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.07.2015
This Tuesday Greek government will begin the negotiations on the new 86 billion euro bailout agreement, which was previously approved with the two parliamentary votes with the latest last week.
Even though the short term agreement between Greece and its international creditors was settled ten days ago, Greek stock exchange remains closed for the 5th week.
The official Troika representative groups have arrived in Athens to conclude the bailout talks. The heads of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund are expected to arrive a few days later.
The most belligerent issue for now is whether the Greece will need to carry out additional reform measures to receive the funds under the new bailout programme. The Athens are resisting strongly to that.
The negotiations deadline is set to be August 20, when Greece will need to pay another 3.2 billion euro on ECB held bonds.
Last week the banks were reopened, however would only provide limited service with the capital controls still there. Greek account holders are limited in their cash withdrawal to 420 Euro per week, which according to officials could last “for month”. Greek government request to lift the limits on trading were rejected by the European Central Bank last Friday.
The measures were implemented to avoid a likely bank runs, which could cause illiquidity and consequent economic collapse to the very fragile economy of the Balkan member. The large deposit outflow was seen in the country’s banks just before capital controls were introduced. It is expected that the only completion of the new bailout aid agreement will restore the confidence in the Greek banking system.
Large number of the businesses as a result have suffered significant sales declines, as they were unable to pay their suppliers. In addition, the recently increased VAT and reduction in pensions payments will lessen the population’s spending power even further.
Troika is seen negatively by the general Greek population, as it is believed its harsh austerity measures caused the economy to decline sharply and unemployment to soar to the record-high levels.
In the recently published report by the IMF, it warned that “Although market reaction to the recent reform package passed in Greece has been broadly positive, further episodes of significant uncertainty and volatility arising from the situation cannot be ruled out.”
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1098
Target 2: 1.0864
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117
Daily control level: 1.1215
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5622
Target 2: 1.5402
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 124.56
Target 2: 122.88
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8375
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9705
Target 2: 0.9519
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 0.9400
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3135
Target 2: 1.2939
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707AUDUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7353
Target 2: 0.7183
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7490
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1115.23
Target 2: 1083.08
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4520
Daily control level: 1160.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 56.28
Target 2: 53.38
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4520
Daily control level: 51.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.07.2015
The Chinese market continues to plummet, with the collapse is now compared to the US stock market crash in 1929.
In the yesterday’s selloff the benchmark for the mainland stocks index sunk to 3.725,56 which is 8.5%, with many equities down to more than 10%. It is estimated that the total decline since June amounts to 38%.
The plunge came quite unexpected as the government rescue programme had helped the index 16% up since July 16.
The Government of the China has made numerous efforts to support the markets, which up to now however brought little result. Among the measures were the ban of the major shareholders from selling their stock and IPOs suspension. Additional interventions to sustain the market were also convened however, were not very effective on the background of the generally slowing down the Chinese economy.
Yesterday China Security Regulatory Commission issued the statement, where it was remarked that the support for the equities will be prolonged and the government will “continue efforts to stabilize market and investor sentiment.”
Despite the continuous efforts by the Government to stabilize the markets investors “are concerned and lost,” as Bloomberg reports.
The Chinese market transparency has always been a concern it continues. “In a market where unprecedented intervention has made government money one of the biggest drivers of share prices, authorities aren’t transparent enough for investors to make informed decisions.”
Numerous markets and currencies were affected by the economic decline of the second world largest economy. China is the Australia’s largest exporting market, with now significantly reduced demand for the country’s raw materials caused the Australian Dollar to decline to six years low, reaching 0.7256 mark yesterday.
Canadian Dollar was in no better condition, continuing to lose its value dramatically with the price of USDCAD surpassing 1.3100 level on Friday.
Russian Rouble was not put aside by the market trend when USDRUB reached the four-month high to almost 60.00 mark yesterday.
The situation is putting downward pressure on the commodities, causing the Oil and Gold prices weaken further.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1203
Target 2: 1.0973
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115
Daily control level: 1.1215
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5664
Target 2: 1.5452
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.98
Target 2: 122.49
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.740
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9703
Target 2: 0.9525
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 0.9400
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3135
Target 2: 1.2939
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7355
Target 2: 0.7183
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7490
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1110.49
Target 2: 1079.03
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.73
Daily control level: 1160.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 48.55
Target 2: 45.45
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55
Daily control level: 51.00
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.07.2015
This evening the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy statement.
This announcement comes against the backdrop off falling oil, commodity prices and the collapse in the price of Chinese equities.
The widening of the Greek financial crisis for now has it seems been averted but there are still concerns that the rebels within the ruling SYRIZA party may cause enough ripples which could slow down the implementation of the third Greek austerity program.
The FOMC has had on its agenda for a long time the view that there needs to be a normalization of the interest rate environment. Therefore unless the current external financial instability becomes globally disruptive the FOMC will most likely stick to its present course of hiking rates gradually.
The question is when the FOMC will raise rates? Will it be September or December? A couple of weeks back the likelihood was that the Fed would pass on the opportunity to raise interest rates in September and look to launch its interest rate nominalization program in December. In recent weeks however we have seen an improvement in US economic data and a stabilization in the job numbers.
Therefore, it now looks like we see lift off in September. We may get some indication today from the Federal Reserve that this is their plan however with a lack of market news and the holiday season well and truly underway I would expect quiet days trading before we finally see a pick of activity this evening.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1171
Target 2: 1.0947
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112
Daily control level: 1.1020
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5721
Target 2: 1.5505
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.5520
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.26
Target 2: 122.84
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71
Daily control level: 123.80
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9710
Target 2: 0.9532
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.9600
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3022
Target 2: 1.2820
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.3050
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7414
Target 2: 0.7249
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.7250
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1110.12
Target 2: 1079.52
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.30
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015CLU5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 49.33
Target 2: 46.25
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54
Daily control level: 49.00
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.07.2015
The United States Federal Reserve has voted in favour of keeping interest rates at the current levels of close to zero.
Although there was universal agreement among all the FOMC members, the improving state of the US economy was highlighted in the latest statement.
The FOMC said, “Economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months.” This would seem to indicate that the improving economic climate would point to an interest rate rise sooner rather than later. Therefore, the bets are now on the Federal Reserve nominalizing the interest rate environment in September rather than December.
The FOMC in its statement noted the improvement on the Job and Real Estate market. Furthermore, there was also the satisfaction that consumer spending has finally begun to increase.
The inflation picture is still not at the target level, however, the Federal Reserve stated that a sustained move to the 2% objective will happen.
The FOMC through its action of deliberate forward guidance has now prepared the market for a period of higher interest rates. The US Dollar off the back of last night’s statement has appreciated during the early morning trading.
The British Pound, however, has traded in a tight range and has remained above the previous day’s lows. This is due to the expectation that the Bank of England soon will also begin to increase interest rates.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1090
Target 2: 1.0876
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5698
Target 2: 1.5496
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.5585
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.57
Target 2: 123.29
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.64
Daily control level: 123.30
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9752
Target 2: 0.9586
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 0.9600
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3045
Target 2: 1.2841
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.2860
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7375
Target 2: 0.7213
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.7350
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1113.14
Target 2: 1080.38
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.38
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015CLU5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 50.41
Target 2: 47.31
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55
Daily control level: 47.40
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.07.2015
The unprecedented market decline continues in China. The government interference of 27 July only had a brief success with the Shanghai Composite Index now declining to pre-intervention levels. At the moment China Securities Finance Corporation, which belongs to the state, is spending around 180 billion yuan a day to support the equities.
However, as the investors started to figure out the timing of the government purchases, waiting that moment to unload their stocks. This is rendered this measure ineffective.
The relatively quiet mornings in the Shanghai Stock exchange are usually followed by very volatile markets in the afternoon, which made analysts question the reasons of such a perplexing behaviour. Currently, a few factors were identified.
The margin call from lenders is and market hitting stop losses often prompt the wave of new selling. In addition, the investors are usually opening position later in the day, after having the opportunity to observe the market behaviour in the morning and figuring out that the government purchasing is going on around that time.
One more factor adds to the share market decline. The Shanghai Stock exchange is dominated by the individual investors, who mostly use technical analysis rather than fundamental factors when making their investment.
The companies’ value, in this case, is diverted from the chart’s actions, rather than based on the calculations of the fair value of the company.
This in turn could lead to illogical and “go with the flow” actions, leading to further sell-off. This also complicates the classical valuation techniques making the market more unpredictable and difficult to control.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1030
Target 2: 1.0832
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5710
Target 2: 1.5490
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5585
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 124.72
Target 2: 123.54
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.595
Daily control level: 123.30
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107USDCHFH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9769
Target 2: 0.9613
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 0.9600
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3045
Target 2: 1.2841
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.2860
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107AUDUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7375
Target 2: 0.7213
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.7350
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1104.24
Target 2: 1072.32
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.96
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 55.24
Target 2: 52.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.418
Daily control level: 47.40
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.08.2015
Today Greece is reopening its stock markets, which were closed since the end of the June. This will be one more step towards normalizing the struggling country’s economy.
Immediate heavy losses are expected, with some analysts projecting the draw-down to reach as much as 20 percent.
The resumption of trading begins as the deal for the bailout extension was made between Greek government and its international creditors, comprised of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund.
The bridge loan of 7 billion euro was arranged for the cash-strapped country in order to repay the delayed instalment to the IMF as well as the Greek bonds held by the ECB.
The deal will promote the further measures to ensure the country’s debt is sustainable. These will be stringent reforms in the pensions system and taxes, as well as other budget’s austerity measures.
The operation of the Greek stock exchange was suspended since June 29, together with the imposition on the capital controls, to prevent the heavy outflow of the funds from the country, threatening the Greece banking system’s collapse.
The stocks are expected to be down between 19 and 22 percent, which is partly estimated based on the Greek assets traded in the United States.
In addition, the traders concern about the negotiations on the new bailout could add a further pressure on the stocks of the struggling EU member. The fears that the negotiations might fail and the Greece economy will be once more left with the shortage of cash does not add any optimism to the short-term outlook for the trading of the Greek shares.
We should keep in mind that banking sector comprises about 20% of the Athens stock exchange, making therefore making the index highly vulnerable to any negative events regarding the future bailout agreement.
Furthermore, the recent bank closure and restrictions on the cash withdrawals and money transfers, have been a weighty toll on the operations of the Greek companies, many of which saw the sales decline to more than a quarter.
The overall economic prospects of Greece are neither on the bright side. It is projected that the country’s economy will decline between 2 to 4 percent this year, which could cause the country to slide deeper into recession.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1075
Target 2: 1.0867
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5728
Target 2: 1.5536
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 124.47
Target 2: 123.29
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5913
Daily control level: 124.45
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9747
Target 2: 0.9561
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: UpA
Target 1: 1.3193
Target 2: 1.2983
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7403
Target 2: 0.7233
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7260
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1112.68
Target 2: 1078.68
Projected range in ATR’s: 17.00
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 53.56
Target 2: 50.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.383
Daily control level: 55.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.08.2015
Standard & Poor’s rating agency revised the European Union’s outlook from “Stable” to “Negative”. The outlook downgrade affects all the current 28 European members, 9 of which do not participate in the Eurozone, therefore using their own currency.
The reason for the downgrade, among other issues is that “the EU will provide first-loss guarantee support for financing connected to the Juncker Plan”, as the agency cited.
The Investment plan, announced last November by the European commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was created to encourage investments in Europe. It was approved by the European Parliament in June. The Juncker stimulus plan is expected to roll out 315 billion euros over three years.
The challenge with the plan is its assumption for the EU to “provide first-loss guarantee support”, therefore will provide financed backup.
The second reason is that the plan brings a significant economic pressure on the three largest EU budgetary contributors – Germany, United Kingdom and France.
Furthermore, “the EU’s repeated use of its balance sheet to provide higher-risk financing to EU member states (most recently including Greece), without the member states’ paying in capital,” was brought up in the press release.
“The negative outlook on the EU also reflects its lack of any paid-in capital, a key difference compared with other multilateral institutions. The EU continues to run a very large negative net asset position, largely reflecting its considerable pension obligations” – the statement continues.
The recently financed part of the Greek bailout, in addition to previous funding of the weaker members such as Spain, Portugal and Cyprus have taken a toll on the EU budget. However, there is not much capital coming in from the 28 member states union.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1050
Target 2: 1.0848
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5679
Target 2: 1.5489
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 124.59
Target 2: 123.45
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5719
Daily control level: 124.45
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9762
Target 2: 0.9614
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3249
Target 2: 1.3059
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 0.7367
Target 2: 0.7199
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.7260
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1101.01
Target 2: 1066.57
Projected range in ATR’s: 17.22
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 51.58
Target 2: 48.76
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.414
Daily control level: 55.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.08.2015
The probability that the Greece’s economy will be harmed further by the new austerity measures imposed by the creditors is real. The analysts believe that unless the debt afflicted country will receive a substantial loan relief, it will suffer permanent depression along with further deterioration of its economic health.
For example it is projected that only the increase in VAT, which was one of the measures to be accepted by the Greek government in order to receive the bailout funds, will cause the GDP decrease of more than one percent next year. This will be due to even weaker consumer spending and continuous shrinking of the economy.
In 2016, the country’s Gross domestic product is calculated to be 30% lower, than at the beginning of the crisis in 2010 and 7% so comparing to the time when Greece has joined the Eurozone in 2001.
Currently, the Greek stock market continues to decline. On Monday, when the stock exchanges opened after being closed since the end of June many stocks suffered trading suspension due to the limit down of 30% decline. The heaviest losers were the banking sector stocks, the decline of which continued on Tuesday with the results much the same.
The Greek Banks are the industry, which was particularly hard hit due to the heavy economic decline. More than 50 percent of the country’s loans are non-performing. The deposit flight was continuing at an unprecedented level during the past six months, and only ceased as the capital controls were enforced in June. This has caused huge liquidity problems and an urgent need for the recapitalisation.
The above was one of the factors, which pushed the Greek government to accept the new bailout agreement measures in order to receive 86 billion euro aid, 25 billion of which is allocated to go to the country’s banking sector.
At the moment, the negotiations with the country’s international creditors represented by the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and the European Central Bank are underway and expected to be concluded in the next two weeks.
As the new Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos reported yesterday, the talks on the privatisation of the state assets, the main creditors’ demand is going smoothly, with the possibility of the final agreement to be reached even earlier.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0981
Target 2: 1.0779
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5657
Target 2: 1.5465
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 124.94
Target 2: 123.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5748
Daily control level: 124.45
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9858
Target 2: 0.9704
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3285
Target 2: 1.3095
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 0.7367
Target 2: 0.7199
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.7260
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1104.80
Target 2: 1070.42
Projected range in ATR’s: 17.19
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 52.02
Target 2: 49.21
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.405
Daily control level: 55.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.08.2015
Today is the big and long expected day for the British pound, called by many media the “Super Thursday” At noon London time the Bank of England will release its August interest rate decision together with the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting and new economic forecast.
This will be a new communication format, as all the elements are released at the same time. At 12:45 pm London time Mark Carney, BOE governor will hold a press conference.
Even though the interest rate is not expected to be increased this time, remaining at 0.5% which is in place since 2009, the policy tone is to be shifted. This will significantly intensify the high impact event.
The Governor Mark Carney has mentioned earlier that the rotation of the year will be the right time to start raising rates. Hence, the most likely we will see the rise in February 2016, which will be marked as a turning point.
It is important to follow the major points of the today’s event. Firstly the MPC voting is projected to change this time from the unanimous decision to hold the interest rates, voted for the last 7 months. This time the economists seeing at least two out of nine members to vote in favour of the increase.
Secondly, inflation forecasts will play a role of the future key guide. Changes regarding the medium-term outlook relative to the 2% target will be the main signal to reveal whether tighter or looser monetary policy will be required.
Wage growth rate will be an important component of today’s meeting. According to the latest statistics, the pay is rising at the fastest annual velocity during the last five years. That could be an alarm bell about the inflationary pressure in the labour market. On the other hand, some analytics count that’s the pace is not enough for the interest rate hike.
The language of the MPC Minutes will require a close observation also. For example the July’s minutes had a new line, which was reading as follows: “For a number of members, the balance of risks to medium-term inflation relative to the 2 per cent target was becoming more skewed to the upside at the current level of bank rate.”
One of the factors that could deter the enthusiasm about the rate increase could be the situation in Greece, which is still unresolved.
GBPUSD remains to range within 1.5670 – 1.5530 corridor in the expectation of the event. High volatility on all British Pound pairs should be anticipated this afternoon.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1008
Target 2: 1.0802
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5695
Target 2: 1.5507
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 125.47
Target 2: 124.23
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6240
Daily control level: 124.45
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9868
Target 2: 0.9708
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3274
Target 2: 1.3078
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 0.7441
Target 2: 0.7269
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 0.7260
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1101.47
Target 2: 1067.81
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.830
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 51.58
Target 2: 48.66
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4630
Daily control level: 55.50
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.08.2015
Bank of England has displayed yesterday no urgency to raise interest rates, making it clear that the earliest increase could be expected not earlier than in 2016.
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 1-0-8 in favour of holding the interest rate at the current level of 0.5%. This move surprised the investors as it was lower than the projections, according to which at least two members were expected to vote in favour of the hike.
The Britain’s economic recovery continues with the wages increasing faster in the recent months and the overall job market improving. Nevertheless, the inflation level is still significantly lower than the target 2% and is at the moment one of the major obstacles to proceed with the tightening measures.
“We are clearly closer to the time at which rates may have to go up, but that does not mean we’re fixing some particular point in the future”, Ben Broadbent, Bank of England Deputy Governor said in his interview yesterday.
“As I saw it, I didn’t think there was any urgency to raise interest rates right now,” he continued.
Yesterday, the Bank of England broke with the tradition and combined the set of the MPC’s rates decision, the minutes of the meeting, and its quarterly inflation report, alongside Bank governor Mark Carney’s regular press conference together.
The inflation report has downgraded the near-term inflation forecast after the drop in the prices of oil has resumed. The Bank now expects inflation to remain around zero for the next two months, with the rise to the targeted 2% expected gradually to be reached in two- year time.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1024
Target 2: 1.0820
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5612
Target 2: 1.5412
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708USDJPYH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 125.36
Target 2: 124.10
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.627
Daily control level: 124.45
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9885
Target 2: 0.9727
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3107
Target 2: 1.3008
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 0.7426
Target 2: 0.7258
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.7260
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1101.47
Target 2: 1067.81
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.530
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 51.56
Target 2: 48.66
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.449
Daily control level: 55.50
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.08.2015
It is hoped that the final deal between Greece and its international creditors will be concluded by tomorrow, as the negotiations on the final bailout programme are currently underway.
Greek finance and economy ministers are being in the final steps of negotiations with the creditors’ delegates currently. It was previously said that the final agreement is expected to be reached by August 18, with the final date now moved closer.
“Efforts are being made to conclude the negotiations. The horizon is by Monday night or early Tuesday,” – a Greek official in the interview to Reuters news agency was quoted.
“When the new bailout comes to parliament for a vote it will be one bill with two articles – one article will be the loan agreement, the Memorandum of understanding and the second article will be the prior actions,” he continued.
At the moment, for institutions are negotiating the 86 billion euro deal with Greece – The International Monetary Fund, the European Central bank, European Commission and the European Stability Mechanism and there is a confidence that the agreement will be reached shortly. The indebted country needs additional liquidity in order to support its banking system and make payments on its obligations.
There are still some questions remained to agree though. The final amount of the third bailout program, the Greece’s third in the last five years should be evaluated. There are also some discrepancies regarding the country’s reforms, which need to be worked out so the fresh funds could be released.
The impending amount of 3.2 billion euro is due to the European Central Bank on August 20, therefore the solution needs to be found shortly. The situation, nevertheless, is not pressing for an immediate solution as previously it was previously the case. The reason is that there are still additional 5 billion euros available for the Greece to borrow from a European fund.
Greek stock exchange has declined for more than 15% during the last week of reopening, after being shut since June 29.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1062
Target 2: 1.0864
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5592
Target 2: 1.5384
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008USDJPYH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.80
Target 2: 123.48
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.660
Daily control level: 124.45
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9896
Target 2: 0.9734
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008USDCADH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3222
Target 2: 1.3012
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 0.7494
Target 2: 0.7328
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 0.7260
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1109.13
Target 2: 1079.75
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.69
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 50.38
Target 2: 47.42
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4764
Daily control level: 55.50
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.08.2015
After the through the night negotiations the final deal on the Greece’s bailout assistance was concluded. The agreement will keep the country in the Eurozone and avoid its bankruptcy.
“An agreement has been reached. Some minor details are being discussed right now,” a Greek government official stated in an interview to reporters, after 18 hours consuming negotiations with the country’s international creditors represented by the ECB, International Monetary Fund, the European commission and the European Stability mechanism rescue fund.
The details of the agreement have not yet been made public, and there is a possibility that the final amount of the financial assistance could exceed the initially indicated 86 billion euro.
The primary budget deficit target was agreed at 0.25 percent of the gross domestic product this year, and 0.5 percent of the primary surplus for 2016, 1.75 percent for 2017 and 3.5 percent surplus in 2018.
Furthermore, additional issues on conducting privatizations and handling non-performing loans in the Greek banking sector were also agreed on.
Greece needs a quick release of the funds in order to settle a 3.2 billion euro of the bond repayment due to the European Central bank on August 20, which will now proceed smoothly.
Besides, Athens hopes to receive 20 billion euro urgently, which is needed to support the country’s weakened banking system.
Another 12 billion euro of the total amount will be allocated for the debt repayments with 5.3 billion euro in payments will be going to the state suppliers.
Following the agreement, Greek parliament will have to approve the measures required by the international creditors, which should be made before the meeting of the euro-area finance ministers this Friday.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1122
Target 2: 1.0914
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5699
Target 2: 1.5481
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 125.29
Target 2: 123.93
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.677
Daily control level: 124.45
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9918
Target 2: 0.9752
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3113
Target 2: 1.2885
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 0.7500
Target 2: 0.7322
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7260
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1109.50
Target 2: 1088.84
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.33
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 52.38
Target 2: 49.26
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5600
Daily control level: 55.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.08.2015
Chinese Yuan continued to depreciate, extending yesterday’s losses after the People’ Bank of China weakened the currency for the second day in the row. The Yuan price declined against the 6.1162 on Monday to a four-year low of 6.4392 in Shanghai.
The PBOC presented this change as an attempt for a free market reform, where the market forces will have more influence on determining the currency value.
The Chinese currency devaluation was a made after the set of disappointing economic data was published and as some analysts believe, could serve as a beginning to the longer-term slide in the exchange rate.
The rapid drop to around 4 percent in Chinese currency affected the markets worldwide, as investors fearing the further economic slump and are looking to switch their funds to safe-haven government debt. Meanwhile, the demand for the riskier assets is diminishing, with the equities, currencies and commodities experiencing a downward pressure.
It is feared that the Chinese government action will lead to the currency wars deepening when other countries’ Central Banks could potentially follow suit and weaken their currencies.
Asian stocks and emerging market currencies have tumbled this morning while MSCI’s Asia-pacific index fell to two-year low.
The currencies of the economies associated especially close to the Chinese economy suffered hardest blow. The Australian Dollar has reached a new low against the US Dollar of 0.7214 this morning, being the pair’s six-year low.
Brent Oil continued to tumble as it was trading below 49.50 support at the European session opening.
S&P 500 index, based on the market capitalization of 500 large US companies has been declining for the second day in the row, bouncing off the 2100.00 level yesterday and now trading around 2063.00 mark.
US Dollar index continued on the way down as well, after forming a double top pattern on the daily chart last week. It has now slid below 96.80 level.
The Common European currency, however, has strengthened for the third consecutive day, after the final deal between Greece and its International creditors was arranged yesterday in the morning.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1148
Target 2: 1.0934
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.1125
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5671
Target 2: 1.5469
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208USDJPYH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 125.83
Target 2: 124.39
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7188
Daily control level: 123.70
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9966
Target 2: 0.9792
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.3230
Target 2: 1.2996
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7393
Target 2: 0.7207
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 0.7425
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: UP
Target 1: 1124.58
Target 2: 1092.46
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.064
Daily control level: 1077.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208BRENTH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 51.57
Target 2: 48.21
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.678
Daily control level: 55.50
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.08.2015
This evening the Greek Parliament is due to assemble for an emergency session to approve the country’s third bailout agreement, concluded with the international creditors on Tuesday. The timing of the event is still uncertain.
The activation of the deal will mean the Greece will be giving most of its sovereignty to the creditors, represented by the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission.
The 29 pages of the new agreement, among the others, quotes the following: “The (Greek) government commits to consult and agree with the European commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund on all actions relevant for the achievement of the objectives of the memorandum of understanding before these are finalised and legally adopted.”
The arrangement will also induce the major reforms in pension and taxation systems, as well as in health and welfare sectors. Privatizations of the public properties will be extended significantly.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras remains positive that the deal will be approved, however, he has certain doubts whether all eurozone members will agree to it.
“Despite the obstacles that some are trying to put before us, I’m optimistic we will reach the agreement and loan support from the European mechanism, which will put a final end to economic uncertainty,” Tsipras was quoted referring to the 86 billion euro deal during a visit to the Ministry of economics.
Germany, among a few more European states, remains sceptical regarding the matter. Even though it considers the deal goes in the right direction it is not yet ready to say whether it was prepared for a vote in the Bundestag.
Before the deal goes to Bundestag, it has to be approved by the Greek Parliament, which should be completed by the early hours of the Friday morning. As the ruling party Syriza has the opposition party support, the confidence that the bill will pass is very high.
The approval of the deal will likely to bring the dissolution of the Syriza and forming a new party as soon as this autumn since the disagreements within the party are widening. Syriza MP Costas Isichos said the vote would lead to an “immediate divorce.”
“We are facing major political developments where the ‘no’ front will take shape,” he continued, referring to the outcome of last month’s referendum on austerity measures.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: UP
Target 1: 1.1272
Target 2: 1.1042
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115
Daily control level: 1.0980
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5713
Target 2: 1.5507
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 124.96
Target 2: 123.44
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7588
Daily control level: 123.80
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9848
Target 2: 0.9658
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308USDCADH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.3099
Target 2: 1.2855
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7472
Target 2: 0.7282
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.7425
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1141.00
Target 2: 1110.16
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.42
Daily control level: 1077.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308BRENTH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 52.00
Target 2: 48.68
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6587
Daily control level: 55.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.08.2015
Greek Government vote on the third bailout package, which has finally taken place this morning, was approved by 222 votes to 64, with only 11 abstentions. Preceding that, however, there was a serious disunity in the Parliament.
“In angry exchanges, the conservative opposition rounded on the government, warning it not to take its support for granted. “If you want to provoke us – and for us to vote for it – you can’t have it both ways,” Vangelis Meimarakis, the leader of the New Democracy party told finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos” – reported by the watchers of the Greek debates.
“On the left, former energy minister Panayiotis Lafazanis, who leads a rebel bloc of around a quarter of Syriza’s 149 MPs, pledged to “smash the eurozone dictatorship”, while in her concluding pre-vote remarks, Konstantopoulou announced: “I am not going to support the prime minister anymore.”
Looking at the rest of the market, the German economy, the largest in the European Union, expanded less than forecasted as the morning release of the country’s preliminary quarterly GDP revealed. The GDP figure rose to mere 0.4% instead of projected 0.5%. It was also significantly lower than the 0.7% number of the May’s release. The Greek crisis and China’s turmoil have both played a substantial role in the decreasing global demand.
French Preliminary GDP release had a similar outcome with the number coming to 0.0% instead of 0.2% increase. This was a large drop comparing to the May publication when the number stood at 0.7% after the revision.
Later this afternoon, at 1:30 pm CET, we will see the release of the monthly Canadian Manufacturing Sales number, which represents the change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers. This is one of the leading indicators of the economic health, as manufacturing industry is fast affected by the market circumstances and is an early indicator of hiring, investment and spending. This time the number is projected to expand to 2.3% comparing to the 0.1% of last month.
At the same time, there will be monthly the US Producer Price Index will be published. PPI is a weighted index of the wholesale prices and shows trend within the US physical goods-producing industries such as manufacturing and commodities market and is therefore, a leading indicator of the country’s inflation. This time PPI is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the 0.4% figure published last month.
The US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Index will close the economic news week at 3:00 pm. Financial confidence is an important component of the consumer spending, which account for a major part of a country’s economic activity. The figure is based on the survey of about 500 respondents, rating the relative present and future economic conditions. This month the index is projected to increase from 93.1 to 93.5 mark.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1256
Target 2: 1.1040
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.0980
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5709
Target 2: 1.5507
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 124.96
Target 2: 123.44
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7588
Daily control level: 123.80
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9857
Target 2: 0.9667
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.3184
Target 2: 1.2934
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7452
Target 2: 0.7262
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.7425
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1129.90
Target 2: 1100.12
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.89
Daily control level: 1077.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 51.20
Target 2: 47.96
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6214
Daily control level: 55.50
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.08.2015
Friday’s positive US data helped the US Dollar Index to rebound from the recent decline, when the currency was trading at the four-week low, below 96.00 last week.
The monthly Producer Price Index, representing the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers and leading indicator of the consumer inflation, came to 0.2%, higher than projected 0.1%.
Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment has declined for the second consecutive month, published at 92.9, comparing to the expected 93.5 figure. Financial confidence is of crucial importance to the consumer spending and is accounting for the majority of economic activity. The overall trend for the data is on the rise since the middle of 2011.
This morning Asian shares continued on the way down as Chinese market slump is still pressuring the global marketplace. Despite the fact that the Yuan has stabilized for the last number of days, underlining concerns regarding weaker Chinese economy and possibility of the further Yuan depreciation is one of the substantial obstacles for the market to recover.
Last week’s China’s currency devaluation caused the investors to consider other markets such as Turkey and Malaysia, with the both countries undergoing political crises at the moment.
Oil prices dropped to the six-year low as more oil rigs were opened last week. This has put an additional weight on the oil-export depending economies. USDCAD is nearing to retest 11-year low of 1.3210 it reached a week ago. Australian Dollar has also rebounded lower and is now trading around 0.7350 level, close to the AUDUSD six-year low of 0.7210.
With the markets weakening globally, it will probably add a further boost to the US currency, as for now it is considered a “safe heaven” investment, with so many markets facing high volatility and unpredictability. In addition, the potential interest rate hike later this year, adds strength to the major world reserve currency.
Today proves to be a rather quiet day with regards to the economic news releases. Adding that it is also the middle of the holiday’s month, no major market moves are expected to occur today.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1226
Target 2: 1.1006
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.1210
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5751
Target 2: 1.5551
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 124.93
Target 2: 123.51
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7129
Daily control level: 125.25
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9843
Target 2: 0.9661
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.3213
Target 2: 1.2967
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7465
Target 2: 0.7283
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.7425
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1129.59
Target 2: 1099.39
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.10
Daily control level: 1077.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 50.34
Target 2: 47.20
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5664
Daily control level: 55.50
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.08.2015
This morning at 9:30 am London time, the Office for National Statistics we will release the UK Consumer Price Index, which it is considered a benchmark for the U.K. economy inflation gauge as it measures the change in the goods and services purchased by the consumers.
The CPI is used for the Bank of England inflation target, which is currently set at 2%. The inflation rate is significant to a currency valuation because the rising consumer prices lead to the rising country’s interest rate.
The index inspects the weighted average of prices of a given basket, compounded out of consumer goods and services, which include items such food, medical services and transportation. The CPI is calculated by averaging the prices of the basket items, before categorising them by their importance.
The CPI number was steadily declining since the second half of 2011, when inflation hit the top of 5.2% in July. Last March the United Kingdom has officially entered “no growth zone” with the release coming to 0.0% for the first time in the index history. The May release disappointed the markets even further when it was published at -0.1%, entering the phase of deflation and prolonging the long-awaited interest rate hike further.
Even though since then the data is steadily fluctuating between -0.1% to 0.1%, the analysts expect the inflation indicator to drop even lower in the near future.
The British economy however still remains less susceptible to the economic slowdown than the rest of its European neighbours, since keeping own currency allows UK for more freedom in market adjustments as well as to some extend prevents the spread of contagion from the destabilized recently Eurozone.
GBPUSD is fluctuating in 1.5670- 1.5460 range for the fifth consecutive week after it reconfirmed the breach of the upward trendline in the middle of July. The CPI is projected to come out without changes at 0.0%, with the numbers coming lower than projected could likely have a weakening effect on the British Pound.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1181
Target 2: 1.0971
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.1210
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.5681
Target 2: 1.5483
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 125.05
Target 2: 123.71
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6740
Daily control level: 125.25
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9876
Target 2: 0.9700
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.3198
Target 2: 1.2958
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7461
Target 2: 0.7281
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 0.7425
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1132.12
Target 2: 1102.72
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70
Daily control level: 1077.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 50.23
Target 2: 47.23
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5007
Daily control level: 55.50
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.08.2015
Asian shares dropped to two-year low this morning, as Chinese stock market continues to decline, following last week’s yuan devaluation. Fears about the stability of the China’s economy influenced a further sell-off with Shanghai Composite Index sliding 6.1%.
In a stabilization attempt, yesterday China’s Central bank injected 120 Billion yuan into the market, which was largest since January 2014 when the bank added 150 billion yuan liquidity through 14-day repos.
However, market confidence declined further, when the China’s “national team”, the government assigned group, which was buying stocks to support the market, has reduced its operations, causing the concerns that the government is withdrawing its support.
“China’s securities regulator said late last week that the market had normalised and the government would allow market forces to play a bigger role in determining stock prices” – Reuters reports.
The slowdown of the China’s economy has substantially weakened commodity prices. Copper value, for example, slid to six-year low, breaking the psychological level of 5.000 US dollars per tonne and now trading below it.
Brent price declined to more than a five-month low of 48.44 yesterday, continuing the downward trend it set at the end of the June last year.
Presently the main concerns of the global investors are the Chinese economy and the US interest rate hike, which is expected to be introduced by the end of this year including the possibility of this action as early as the following month.
Following last week yuan devaluation and current market turmoil, there are fears that the crisis will spread to the other economies, causing pressure even on the US-denominated debt.
The emerging economies markets were hit the hardest when MSCI emerging markets index dropped to more than 20%, its lowest level since 2011. The number of the emerging markets currencies are facing the liquidity outflow.
The investments are being transferred to the US dollar, currently the market’s “safe heaven”, with the prospects of the nearing interest rate hike adding stability to the major world’s reserve currency.
The US S&P 500 however, slid to 0.26% yesterday. The September’s futures of the UK’s FTSE 100 have also opened lower this morning after the trend formed a lower high last week.
Gold, conversely, is trading higher currently targeting to retest last week’s high of 1127.00, after it reconfirmed the breach of the downward trend channel last Wednesday.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1121
Target 2: 1.0918
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.1210
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5763
Target 2: 1.5553
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.5670
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 125.04
Target 2: 123.74
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6500
Daily control level: 125.25
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 0.9857
Target 2: 0.9683
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.3176
Target 2: 1.2938
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120
Daily control level: 1.2910
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908AUDUSDH12.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7425
Target 2: 0.7245
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 0.7425
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1132.24
Target 2: 1102.84
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70
Daily control level: 1077.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 50.19
Target 2: 47.21
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4900
Daily control level: 55.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.08.2015
Today Greece prepares to receive the first tranche of the new 86 billion euro bailout deal, which was approved by German Bundestag yesterday. However, there is still a lot of scepticism whether Greece will be able to implement all the reforms required by the three-year financial aid programme.
The cash-strapped country is due to receive the first instalment from the European Stability Mechanism amounting to 26 billion euro, 13 billion euro of which will be available immediately, so the bond’s repayment to the European Central Bank can be made without delay. The rest of the funds will be distributed to the country in several parts and will help Greece to recapitalize its struggling banking sector.
Under the current program Greece should undertake strict conditions which are “aiming at setting right public finances and administration and dealing with the economy and problems in the financial sector” – the Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said in his statement.
The implementation of the reforms will be closely monitored and assessed whether all the commitments are met. The International Monetary Fund will review the current Greece bailout programme in order to decide whether to participate in it.
The agreement was approved by the German Bundestag after the intensive debates regarding the sustainability of the new deal.
“Following three hours of lively debate, 453 voted in favour of the rescue package, while 113 voted against it and 18 MPs abstained. A total of 63 MPs of Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU conservative alliance rebelled against the government despite warnings that there would be consequences if they failed to toe the party line. Three conservative MPs were among those who abstained” – as the Guardian reports.
“Bundestag observers said that despite being held during the summer holiday and with some MPs either ill or unable to return from far-flung places, never had so few voted in such an important vote. It was a sign of how controversial the topic has been” – it continues.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1217
Target 2: 1.1021
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 0.0980
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5781
Target 2: 1.5577
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.5550
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 125.44
Target 2: 124.12
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6561
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008USDCHFH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 0.9744
Target 2: 0.9570
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.9900
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.3247
Target 2: 1.3007
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120
Daily control level: 1.2960
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7434
Target 2: 0.7258
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7425
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1148.02
Target 2: 1119.10
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.46
Daily control level: 1112.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 48.77
Target 2: 45.77
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5029
Daily control level: 51.10
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.08.2015
A little over 7 months ago Alexis Tsipras led his SYRIZA party to an election victory on January 26. Mr. Tsipras since taking the leadership of the radical left SYRIZA in 2009 has been a driving force that has swept away the political elite that has taken Greece to the brink of ruin and bankruptcy.
Alexis has had an eventful tenure as the Greek Prime. His party was elected to office on a promise to roll back the much-hated austerity program. His leadership did cause a great deal of political and economic instability, but it also opened up the debate on which way the European project was heading.
Although Tsipras pressed home his domestic popularity by winning a referendum which said no to further austerity, the realities of the grim economic situation and hard line taken by European partners of Greece led to a dramatic U-turn by the Greek Prime Minister.
Alexis Tsipras acceptance of the harsh terms set out in the third austerity programme has now split the SYRIZA party. The left faction of the party led by the former Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and the former Parliamentary Speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou both former close associates of Alexis Tsipras have become the Greek Prime Ministers most outspoken critics.
The Greek political system has always been known for its fractious character. With the anger and opposition from the radical elements to the new austerity agreement being so strong, the possibility of the left faction splintering away from the core of SYRIZA is now very high.
The strength of internal opposition within his own SYRIZA party and the size political U-Turn which in Greek is called a kolotoumba performed by Mr.Tsipras meant that his resignation and the request of a fresh mandate from the Greek public was always on the cards and as such is not a great surprise.
The Greek Prime Minister has a moral obligation to ask the Greek people to back him and the EUR 86 billion three-year bailout agreement. The calling of the snap election is a risk, but the popularity of Tsipras is high. If you add to this the relief of the Greek public to the acceptance of the austerity programme the possibility of Alexis Tsipras once again leading the rump of what remains of SYRIZA to a second election victory is strong.
The timing of this election could not be better. Tsipras having transformed himself from an activist of the left to a new-born liberal of the political establishment also has support from other European Governments and European and international institutions. In reality only Alexis Tsipras as the leader of a new Greek Government that is untouched by the political scandals, corruption and mismanagement that blighted the establishment regimes of PASOK and New Democracy can sell to the Greek people a rescue plan that is heavy on spending cuts and tax rises.
Does Mr. Tsipras agree to the plan? Well, that is another question but what choice did he have other than the unthinkable of exiting the Eurozone.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1346
Target 2: 1.1134
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.1100
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5790
Target 2: 1.5586
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.5600
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.09
Target 2: 122.67
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71
Daily control level: 124.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9672
Target 2: 0.9494
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.9650
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3216
Target 2: 1.2956
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130
Daily control level: 1.3050
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7422
Target 2: 0.7246
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7400
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1149.19
Target 2: 1117.97
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.61
Daily control level: 1108.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015CLU5H1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 42.48
Target 2: 39.52
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.48
Daily control level: 42.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.08.2015
The People’s Bank of China cut interest rate and also has lowered the reserve requirements for the banking sector yesterday, hoping to support the struggling economy. The one-year benchmark interest rate was cut by 25 basis points, with the current rate now of 4.6 percent. At the same time the reserves were allowed to be reduced by 50 basis points to 18 percent.
The action followed one more day stock plunging on Tuesday, seeing the investors desperate in expectations of new supportive measures by the Chinese government. The major Chinese indices declined to more than 8 percent on Monday, with the following day’s decline accounted to approximate 7 percentage points.
The attempt to support plunging market was the next step after the investments of hundreds of billions dollars by the Chinese government to support the equities, failed to bring any sustainable result.
The China’s turmoil, the world’s second-largest economy and one of the main global engines, has sent a shockwave around the world, causing all the major indexes to decline sharply on Monday, which consequently was called “Black Monday”, as the amount of losses counted in billions of dollars.
Despite all the efforts to prop-up the Chinese stock market, the decline continues, with Shanghai Composite declining by another 1.3 percent by yesterday’s close. The index is now trading at 2927 level, its lowest since December 2014.
FTSE100, the main British benchmark index continued the decline, despite the brief retracement last afternoon. It is currently trading below 6000 mark, losing 1.8 percent of the value. The German DAX is following the trend with 1.9 percent loss up to now, trading at 9.955 this morning. French CAC 40 faced similar faith, declining 2.05 percent up to now.
The US Dollar Index has retraced to trade above 94.00 mark, after it reached 92.52 low on Monday. In the meantime, EURUSD has reconfirmed the reversal to the upward trend, currently trading around 1.1500 level. High volatility seems very likely to hold in the coming days.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1748
Target 2: 1.1486
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level: 0.0980
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5880
Target 2: 1.5670
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.5615
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 119.62
Target 2: 117.18
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.2151
Daily control level: 124.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 0.9407
Target 2: 0.9193
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 0.9670
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608USDCADH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.3416
Target 2: 1.3156
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130
Daily control level: 1.2960
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7256
Target 2: 0.7056
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 0.7360
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1172.02
Target 2: 1138.68
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.67
Daily control level: 1112.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 44.73
Target 2: 41.55
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5940
Daily control level: 49.30
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.08.2015
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index surged higher last afternoon, closing the day with the biggest single day gains since 2011.
The indicator was trading 627 points higher and after incurring substantial volatility during the day closed 619 points up, which amounts to 3.96 percent of the index increase. S&P 500 at the same time rose to 3.90 percent, lifting by 72.90 points to 1.940,51 level.
William Dudley, the President of the NY Federal Reserve has hinted in the yesterday’s speech at the press conference about the local and regional economy that the interest rate hike is still on the agenda, though with probabilities of the event occurring later than in September, as was previously projected by investors based on the Janet Yellen earlier communications.
The influential speaker has also reassured the auditory that the recent turmoil in China will not affect the US economy significantly.
“The decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago,” he said.
“The stock market has to move a lot – and stay there – to have implications for the US economy. What we’re seeing is not a US problem. This is very different from the financial crisis.”
The indications of the hike delay, meaning that the credit costs will remain at the low levels for some time have calmed down the investors. The action is expected to affect positively the global markets, as the prospect of the investments outflow now seems to be reduced.
Nevertheless, Chinese markets continued on the way down, with even the Tuesday’s interest rate cut and further injection of 140 billion yuan by the government on Wednesday were incapable to support the situation. The Shanghai Composite closed down 1.3% yesterday, the fifth consecutive session towards the south.
The People’s Bank of China decided to cut interest rate for the fifth time in nine month so to induce banks for more funds availability to the public, as Chinese economic growth and manufacturing output are slowing down. The current official figures show the growth rate at 7 percent, whereas many analysts agree that the real figure will be closer to 5 percent.
European markets were tumbling as well, with the British FTSE 100 closing the day 102 points lower and 15 percent down from its record high. Germany’s DAX and Spain’s IBEX both lost 1.3 percent, while the French CAC dropped 1.4 percent.
The US Dollar index has opened this morning higher, trading up for the third consecutive day. The index is currently fluctuating around 95.35 level, rebounding from the Monday’s low of 92.52.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1464
Target 2: 1.11164
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141
Daily control level: 0.0980
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5571
Target 2: 1.5345
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 1.5615
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.17
Target 2: 118.57
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3040
Daily control level: 116.80
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9680
Target 2: 0.9410
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135
Daily control level: 0.9780
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708USDCADH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3428
Target 2: 1.3154
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130
Daily control level: 0.0137
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7221
Target 2: 0.7021
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 0.7360
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1143.58
Target 2: 1107.58
Projected range in ATR’s: 18.00
Daily control level: 1112.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 45.80
Target 2: 42.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6471
Daily control level: 49.30
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.08.2015
Asian shares prolonged their upturn as the Chinese and US markets were recovering for the second consecutive day.
Chinese benchmark Shanghai Composite index surged 5.3 percent higher by the yesterday’s close, after crushing by 23 percent over the last five sessions. The revival came after it was announced that the People’s Bank of China purchased additional stock becoming a buyer of last resort, due to the absence of the real demand.
Moreover, it gave an order to the state-owned banks to purchase more of the national currency. These actions followed the reduction of the interest rate earlier this week for the fifth time in nine months.
Among the measures, which raised the market sentiment was the announcement that Chinese pension funds will invest as much as 313 billion US dollars in the country’s stock market. Analysts expect some more government intervention today, therefore propping up the weakened stock market further.
Positive news from China have affected well the global markets, diminishing the fears that the slowing Chinese economy would weight on the rest of the world which up to now wiped out more than 2 trillion US Dollars in market capitalization.
Wednesday comments by William Dudley, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, which hinted that the rate hike will be postponed from the earlier expected month of September, added more of a reassurance to investors.
The US preliminary GDP numbers beat the economists the expectations coming to 3.7 percent yesterday, have increased the desirability of the major world’s reserve currency, helping the dollar index gaining value for the third successive day in a row, which was trading above 96.00 level during the previous trading session.
Have all the above actions supported the real market upraise and will serve as a genuine revival or just as a mere dead cat bounce, should become clear within a short period of time.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1398
Target 2: 1.1090
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141
Daily control level: 0.0980
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5515
Target 2: 1.5291
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112
Daily control level: 1.5615
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 122.37
Target 2: 119.66
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3588
Daily control level: 116.80
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9783
Target 2: 0.9537
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123
Daily control level: 0.9780
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3326
Target 2: 1.3068
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129
Daily control level: 0.0137
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7265
Target 2: 0.7063
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 0.7360
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1142.98
Target 2: 1107.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 17.59
Daily control level: 1112.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 49.61
Target 2: 45.99
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8129
Daily control level: 49.30
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.08.2015
The European equities have opened lower this morning following their Asian counterparts, as worries over Chinese government support abandonment invoked the selling mood in investors.
The UK markets will remain closed due to the British bank holiday today.
Following the Chinese government decision to call off the further support to the country stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index declined nearly 3 percent on Monday, following last week revival.
German DAX 30 opened 0.8 percent lower at 10,202.00 this morning, continuing the daily downward trend the Index of the largest EU economy has formed in the middle of this July. The EU Stoxx 50 had a similar fate, opening at 3,261.50, decreasing approximately 0.70 percent.
The German Retail Sales numbers came out on the positive note today, increasing to 1.4 percent from -1.0 percent last month. This helped the common European currency rebound higher against the US Dollar, following four consecutive days of the decline last week.
The US dollar index itself was trading lower, bouncing off the 96.20 resistance level. The index is fluctuating within 93.00- 98.00 borders since the beginning of last April, with the signs of lost upward momentum.
Gold remained trading at the Friday’s close level, after it broke the upward trend support line at the end of the previous week. It seems the precious metal is expecting some additional data from the global markets in order to decide on the move further.
Looking at the forthcoming releases, at 10.00 am London time the EuroStat will publish the Eurozone’s August Consumer Price Index inflation estimates. The numbers are projected to stay without change, with the CPI Flash Estimate index being at 0.2 percent and the Core CPI Flash Estimate at 1.0 percent.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108EURUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1325
Target 2: 1.1011
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157
Daily control level: 0.1020
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5528
Target 2: 1.5298
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115
Daily control level: 1.5815
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.04
Target 2: 120.24
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4031
Daily control level: 124.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.97401
Target 2: 0.9500
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120
Daily control level: 0.9780
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108USDCADH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3335
Target 2: 1.3081
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127
Daily control level: 0.0137
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7246
Target 2: 0.7054
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 0.7360
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1150.70
Target 2: 1115.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 17.70
Daily control level: 1112.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 51.87
Target 2: 48.11
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8800
Daily control level: 51.10
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.09.2015
After the recent Chinese turmoil, many economists have shifted their outlook regarding the US interest rate hike closer to the end of the year, rather than the earlier expected month of September.
At the moment, the September rate hike has declined to below 50 percent according to a survey, conducted by Bloomberg recently, which is now down from 77 percent last month.
“Forty-eight percent of 54 economists surveyed Aug. 27-31 by Bloomberg News see a September increase in the benchmark lending rate, the first move up since 2006. That’s down from 77 percent in an Aug. 7-12 survey, though it is still double the 24 percent who say the first move will occur in December. Seventeen percent said October” – Bloomberg news agency reports.
The latest speech by the FOMC member and the Fed’s vice chairman Stanley Fischer at the 2015 Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole last Saturday gave no indications regarding the timing of the next rate increase. By and large, it seems to be a tough call for the Federal Reserve to make such a decision.
The Federal Reserve has last raised the interest rates nine years ago, with the increase by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent. However, following housing market collapse and the consequent sliding into recession have soon reversed these actions, with the Fed benchmark interest rate set between 0.0 percent and 0.25 percent by December 2008.
As the Federal Reserve monetary policy’s main function is to strive for the maximum employment and stable prices, in 2011 the central bank determined that 2 percent target inflation rate would be the best to achieve such results and keep the economic growth at a healthy pace.
A reduction of the interest rate is commonly promoting more consumer spending, increasing inflation and economic revival. This time, however, since the interest rate was already at zero and still deemed ineffective, further actions such a Quantitative easing programmes were taken. At the moment, all these measures have been completed and the US economy showing an improvement, with the jobs market being almost at the prerecession at 5.3 percent unemployment rate.
Hence, the Fed have started to consider the interest rates tightening, with such expectations sending the US currency up since the May of 2014. However sharp interest rate hike could cause the damages to not yet fully healed US economy, therefore such steps are still causing a contemplation among the US policy makers. In addition, the only expectations of such actions have already disrupted the global markets and put pressure on the emerging economies.
Surely enough the next rate increase should not exceed 25 basis points. Regarding the timing, some further lights will be given at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 17 of September.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1362
Target 2: 1.1058
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152
Daily control level: 0.1020
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5460
Target 2: 1.5226
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117
Daily control level: 1.5815
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109USDJPYH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 122.54
Target 2: 119.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4158
Daily control level: 124.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9786
Target 2: 0.9554
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level: 0.9780
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.3270
Target 2: 1.3008
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level: 1.3055
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7204
Target 2: 0.7018
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 0.7360
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1150.47
Target 2: 1118.19
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.14
Daily control level: 1112.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 55.42
Target 2: 50.90
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.257
Daily control level: 42.55
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.09.2015
September did not begin well for the global stock markets, attesting that the last week’s revival was probably just a mere dead cat bounce.
Rising worries about the China’s slowing economy is prompting the sell-off of the international equities. Numerous interventions by the Chinese government to stabilize the markets brought little result when the Chinese equities were collapsing from June’s high over the last two months.
Furthermore, weak manufacturing reports from China, Europe and the United States invoked additional concerns about the prospects of the global growth.
European stocks followed the Asian ones down this morning, with no end to market volatility. The UK’s FTSE 100 opened 2.5 percent lower, after its worst month in the last four years. Earlier, Shanghai Composite index closed down a modest 1.2 percent, while Japan Nikkei slumped 3.8 percent, while the rest of the Asian equities were down to more than 2 percent.
There are still chances that the US Federal Reserve may still go ahead with the rate hike though probabilities of such an action significantly lower after last month markets turbulence.
Such prospects increase investors’ insecurity, causing them to look for the stability elsewhere after withdrawing their investments from the emerging markets. In addition, the likelihood of the rising borrowing costs in the US adds to the liquidity outflow from the more fragile economies.
Returning to the two most significant world’s commodities, we see the following picture.
Oil price fell to more than 3 percent yesterday, with the Brent crude being down to more than four dollars since last Monday highs and now trades at the below 50 mark, compared to the last summer’s high of above 115 US dollars per barrel.
The previous three-day revival of the commodity followed the news that OPEC expressed its willingness to discuss the mutually beneficial oil price level with the non-member oil producing countries. Nonetheless, the barriers for consensus between the counterparts still remain high.
The only significant frontrunner was Gold, with the investors seeking “the safe heaven” during the times of uncertainty. The precious metal was on the way up again, after 3.5 percent rise in August.
The analysts see the uncertainty likely to continue in the near future.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209EURUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1464
Target 2: 1.1164
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150
Daily control level: 0.1020
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5420
Target 2: 1.5186
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117
Daily control level: 1.5815
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 120.84
Target 2: 117.86
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4896
Daily control level: 124.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9703
Target 2: 0.9467
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 0.9780
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.3383
Target 2: 1.3129
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127
Daily control level: 1.3055
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209AUDUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7109
Target 2: 0.6919
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.7360
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1155.59
Target 2: 1123.69
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.95
Daily control level: 1112.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209BRENTH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 55.49
Target 2: 46.55
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.469
Daily control level: 42.55
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.09.2015
Unless you have been on vacation for the whole of August you might have noticed that the foreign exchange markets have been very volatile during the prior month.
During the summer months, we are supposed to see the markets trade within small ranges. However, this has not been the case with typical Average True Range levels (ATR) ranging from the 140’s for EURUSD down to a still very large 90’s for AUDUSD.
Although August has come and gone, the fallout from China still continues to rile the markets. With the summer coming to a close, the action on the Forex markets during the coming autumn and winter months should continue to entertain some and give others frayed nerves.
Having only arrived back from my own mini-family break yesterday I have had a busy couple of days trying to catch up and make sense of what has gone on before. What comes to mind is a market that offers a lot of upside opportunity and downside risk.
Understanding and being aware of the up and coming event risks is of paramount importance and although we are now nearing the close of the first week in September, event-driven market volatility could see Thursday and Friday experience some extreme price action.
The big event of today is, of course, the European Central Bank’s press conference which takes place at 1:30 pm (London). These events are always keenly anticipated however this press conference is taking place after the tumultuous events that can only be described as the real China syndrome.
We have already have had a taste of what could be in store for us with the ECB Executive Board Member Mr. Peter Praet stating that Central Banks inflation targeting will take into account any slowdown in China and the drop-off in the price of Oil.
Mario Draghi the ECB boss will no doubt touch on these issues during today’s press conference, however, there is the added worry of what to do about the Euro. Confidence in the single currency has returned with traders bidding up EURUSD during the late spring and summer months. Only last week from a technical perspective EURUSD printed a weekly higher high.
If this bullishness for the Euro continues the ECB will become increasingly concerned that a strong single currency will play havoc to its inflation targeting. I always find the subject of inflation targeting a little confusing. Is low inflation or deflation such a big issue when businesses and the citizens of the European Union can purchase products, services and commodities for less?
I am sure Mr. Draghi will enlighten us with more pearls of wisdom this afternoon.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015EURUSD.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1373
Target 2: 1.1079
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0147
Daily control level: 1.1320
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5414
Target 2: 1.5182
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116
Daily control level: 1.5330
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.80
Target 2: 118.83
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.48
Daily control level: 121.40
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03095015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9802
Target 2: 0.9566
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 0.9560
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3396
Target 2: 1.3140
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128
Daily control level: 1.3250
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7134
Target 2: 0.6940
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 0.7060
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1149.15
Target 2: 1117.71
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.72
Daily control level: 1142.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.95
Target 2: 43.87
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.54
Daily control level: 43.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.09.2015
Yesterday’s ECB press conference did not hold many surprises however the markets took their cue from the Central Bank chief as the Euro promptly sold off.
As expected the outlook for both inflation and Euro Area growth dominated Thursday’s event with Mr Draghi saying that the ECB had cut its forecasts for both.
The ECB chief said that he expected inflation to remain extremely low for a considerable time. It would appear that the issue of extremely low inflation in the Euro Area has now become a chronic problem.
On economic activity, Mario Draghi said that Euro Area growth will rise at a slower pace than had been earlier predicted.
Due to the continuing concerns over both inflation and growth Mario Draghi hinted that the ECB would be ready to add to an already large programme of stimulus.
The ECB yesterday kept interest rates on hold at 0.05% which was expected. In terms of other numbers, the ECB has revised its forecast for growth to 1.4% instead of 1.5% for 2015 and 1.7% instead of 1.9% for 2016.
The global outlook was also mentioned with Mr Draghi pointing to the problems facing the emerging markets and China during the month of August. According to ECB chief, these global issues had increased the risks and could impact Eurozone growth.
Draghi and his colleagues have now put out the message that they are ready to expand the Euro Areas Quantitative Easing programme by either spending more on a monthly basis, putting back the end of the QE programme to after September 2016, increasing the scope of the assets that can be purchased or a combination of all of the above.
I taking such a dovish stance the Euro should ultimately weaken value against the Green Back. The days of EURUSD trading above the 1.1000 level could potentially end soon.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1275
Target 2: 1.0969
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153
Daily control level: 1.1240
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5370
Target 2: 1.5140
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115
Daily control level: 1.5330
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.64
Target 2: 118.48
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.58
Daily control level: 120.70
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9854
Target 2: 0.9610
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122
Daily control level: 0.9695
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3315
Target 2: 1.3045
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135
Daily control level: 1.3325
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7113
Target 2: 0.6917
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 0.7060
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1141.01
Target 2: 1109.01
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.00
Daily control level: 1142.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 49.68
Target 2: 44.29
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.70
Daily control level: 43.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.09.2015
The finance minister of Saudi Arabia has said that the Government will delay certain state projects. This move has been taken with the aim to cut in State spending.
However, Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf said that Saudi Arabian finances are in good health and that the low price of oil was not a problem and can be managed.
The oil-rich Gulf State is the biggest exporter of crude has increased production in a bid to maintain its market share in the face of increased but more expensive shale production that originates from the United States.
The increase in production has driven down the price of Oil from around US$112.00 per barrel in August 2013 to just under US$46.00 per barrel at the start of this week.
Mr. al-Assaf tried to reinforce the Saud position by telling CNBC Arabia in an interview that
“We have built reserves, cut public debt to near-zero levels and we are now working on cutting unnecessary expenses while focusing on main development projects and on building human resources in the kingdom,”
The Saudi Arabian government had built up some US$ 600 billion in reserves which were accumulated during the good times when the oil price was much higher. However according to the International Monetary Fund Saudi Arabia needs to sell oil at US$ 106.00 to balance is budget during the period 2015.
Although the substantial cash pile that Saudi Arabia has accumulated will enable it to continue to fund a large public sector workforce and crucial infrastructure projects there will be a growing concern within the Government that such high levels of production will lead to a squandering of this valuable cash asset.
Saudi Arabia without question is the giant within the globes crude producers but can it really carry on and fight the US shale sector without damaging its own economy in the long run.
Furthermore, the United States shale community will and has responded to the prevailing market conditions. Due to the historically low crude prices the US shale industry has found ways to become leaner and more efficient. This process will continue and this, in the long run, will eventually force the Saudi government to reassess its current policy.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1318
Target 2: 1.1004
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157
Daily control level: 1.1200
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5286
Target 2: 1.5060
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 1.5250
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 120.54
Target 2: 117.24
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.65
Daily control level: 120.70
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015USDCHFH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9866
Target 2: 0.9616
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125
Daily control level: 0.9695
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3392
Target 2: 1.3118
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0137
Daily control level: 1.3325
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7025
Target 2: 0.6825
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 0.7000
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1139.98
Target 2: 1106.81
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.59
Daily control level: 1127.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.76
Target 2: 43.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.68
Daily control level: 43.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.09.2015
Yesterday Eurostat which is responsible for European Economic statistics published revised data on growth numbers.
The new data for the 19 Eurozone members has now been revised upwards. The new revisions indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period of April to June as been increased to 0.4%. The previous first estimate being 0.3%.
There was more good news for European finance ministers and the ECB when Eurostat announced that first quarter GDP had been revised upwards from 0.4% to 0.5%.
The growth news update coincided with a Destatis publishing German Trade Balance data. This new data would seem to indicate that the expansion in the German economy was continuing. This can be confirmed by Destatis announcing that both imports and exports have risen to new record levels. Although there was an expansion in both imports and exports, the trade surplus increased due to EUR 25 billion. This is due to exports increasing at a much faster pace than imports.
Back to the European growth data story, there is one caveat in that Irish data was added as part of the revision for the first quarter of 2015. As Ireland is at the present time the fastest growing member of the Euro Area with a dizzy rate of expansion of 1.4% the jump higher in the revised data is to be expected.
However, the growth picture is a lot rosier than what we have become accustomed to. As such the healthier economic outlook could for the time being delay any European Central Bank decision to expand the already large quantitative easing programme.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH109092015L.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1350
Target 2: 1.1050
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150
Daily control level: 1.1120
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH109092015L.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5510
Target 2: 1.5275
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 1.5150
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH109092015L.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.45
Target 2: 118.10
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.69
Daily control level: 118.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH109092015L.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9910
Target 2: 0.9665
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123
Daily control level: 0.9695
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH109092015L.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3335
Target 2: 1.3075
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level: 1.3325
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH10909215L.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7115
Target 2: 0.6910
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 0.6920
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH109092015L.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1136.00
Target 2: 1106.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.73
Daily control level: 1127.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH109092015L.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.00
Target 2: 43.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.70
Daily control level: 43.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.09.2015
As expected the Bank of England kept the UK’s Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5%. The vote to keep the benchmark rate unchanged although not unanimous obtained a large majority with only one of the 9 committee members wanting to see an increase.
The lone dissenter was once again Monetary Policy Committee Ian McCafferty. Mr. Mcafferty voted for an increase the last time the MPC debated the merits of hiking interest rates. As such Mr. Mcafferty has maintained his hawkish stance by citing that there is now a growing inflation risk and that increasing costs could lead to the CPI could overshooting its 2% target.
However, the most 0.25% increase that Mr. Mcafferty wanted was not forthcoming. The doves on the Monetary Policy Committee can point to the majority view being supported by recent comments made both the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) that increasing UK interest rates now would be premature and risky. That the MPC took the safe wait and see approach for now is understandable.
Furthermore with the FOMC over in the United States has yet to decide on increasing its own benchmark interest rate the Bank of England will almost certainly wait for their American colleagues to act first in normalizing their own interest rate environment.
There were a couple of key points that could be taken from yesterday’s announcement. Firstly the move to lower third quarter GDP from 0.7% to 0.6% would seem to indicate that the Bank of England and its Governor Mr. Mark Carney will have concerns that to increase rates now will only weaken the GDP picture. This is in line with the World Bank and IMF’s concerns.
The other key point was that of international cross-border contagion and more specifically the recent and dramatic Chinese economic meltdown and worries for the Emerging Markets have added risks to the UK economy, however, according to their MPC, the Bank of England August outlook has not been sufficiently altered by these events.
The MPC view would seem to have noted the global economic turmoil and will act and adjust their policy as and when it is required. The key risk event for the Emerging Markets and China would appear to be the economic fallout post a US interest rate hike. With the September FOMC meeting fast approaching the MPC will soon have additional hard data to analyze.
The inflation outlook continues to concern the Bank of England with the 2% inflation target remaining a fair distance away. Current CPI levels at present are flat lining close to zero and with commodity and oil price risk continuing to add downside pressure to prices. However, the Bank of England has an expectation that inflation will rise to around 1% in the first part of 2016.
Taking what we can from yesterday’s announcement it would appear that the MPC will definitely increase interest rates in the future but are not in any hurry to make their move this year. What we really need to see is a lift off in the United States with interest rates being increased there first and enough data in Q4 that supports a UK interest rate nominalization early in 2016.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH111092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1405
Target 2: 1.1155
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0126
Daily control level: 1.1170
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH111092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5560
Target 2: 1.5330
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114
Daily control level: 1.5350
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH111092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.95
Target 2: 119.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.32
Daily control level: 120.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH111092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9840
Target 2: 0.9620
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 0.9695
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH111092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3375
Target 2: 1.3125
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127
Daily control level: 1.3310
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH111092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7105
Target 2: 0.6925
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 0.6945
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH111092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1121.15
Target 2: 1090.55
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.11
Daily control level: 1127.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH111092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 48.80
Target 2: 43.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.74
Daily control level: 46.75
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.09.2015
This week sees the Federal Reserve announce it’s much-anticipated interest rate decision which takes place this coming Thursday.
However, long before this key event taking place the week has already started with Chinese National Bureau of Statistics releasing its Monthly, year on year Industrial Production number.
Although the overnight announcement of 6.1% did manage to print higher than the prior month the trend since the 2010 high continues to be solidly down with this release also missing the 6.4% forecast.
Back to today and Monday has little in the way if data events other than Eurostat releasing its monthly Eurozone monthly Industrial Production number. Thus release is due to take place at 10:00 am London. It is expected that the prior months negative reading of -0.4% will be eclipsed by a forecast of 0.3%.
Traders and investors of the Swiss France however may find that they have a busy morning with both monthly Producer Price Index and year on year Retail Sales number being released this morning at 8:15 am London time.
As a precursor of what is to come later in the week, on Tuesday we have more Central Banks coming into view. The Reserve Bank of Australia early on Tuesday morning will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
The Bank of Japan not to be left out on Tuesday will also release its Monetary Policy Statement. This announcement will coincide with a press conference.
Tuesday is actually a very busy day in terms of data with UK CPI being released, together with the important German ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator.
Across the Atlantic and with an eye on what will happen this Thursday we get a glimpse of the how the US consumer is feeling with the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales numbers being announced.
Wednesday we have important jobs numbers from the UK with a splurge of data being released at 9:30 am London time. Simultaneously data will be announced for the UK, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change and the Unemployment Rate.
The Loonie also comes into focus on Wednesday with Statistics Canada announcing its monthly, Manufacturing Sales number.
A day before the FOMC decision we also have important inflation data from the US with monthly CPI and Core CPI data. Can this release so close to the Federal Reserve announcement have any bearing on Thursday’s decision?
This Thursday is, of course, the big day which Traders and Investors have been waiting for. Setting the tone for Thursday we have the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda due to speak.
This is followed by the Swiss National Bank announcing its latest LIBOR decision and Monetary Policy Assessment.
Staying in Europe the UK’s Office for National Statistics will publish Retail Sales Data. With the Bank of England Governor and other committee members waiting for the FOMC to move first, a good number will increase the pressure and make an interest rate increase in early 2016 all the more likely.
Leading up to the FOMC decision we have the US building Permits and Unemployment Claims numbers which are being announced at 1:30 pm London time. This is followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 3:00 pm.
Finally, we get to 7:00 pm London and the FOMC announcement for the Federal Funds rate. With many forecasting a hike by 25 basis points from 0.25% to 0.50% whatever is the outcome, it is due to cause lots of market volatility.
Friday, it is very much a case of picking up the pieces of what happened the night before. We do have more action from the Central Banks with the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaking and more monetary policy minutes, this time from the Bank of Japan.
The week is rounded off with Canadian Inflation data with both the CPI and Core CPI being announced.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH114092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1450
Target 2: 1.1210
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 1.1255
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH114092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5540
Target 2: 1.5320
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5400
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH114092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.75
Target 2: 119.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.23
Daily control level: 120.80
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH114092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9795
Target 2: 0.9590
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 0.9800
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH114092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3370
Target 2: 1.3130
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119
Daily control level: 1.3175
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH114092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7170
Target 2: 0.6990
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7035
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH114092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1121.00
Target 2: 1091.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.64
Daily control level: 1115.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH114092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 48.00
Target 2: 42.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.74
Daily control level: 46.40
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.09.2015
As we approach Thursday, many traders and investors will now be working through their minds and penning scenarios for this much anticipated Federal Funds Rate decision.
Although a lot of trading is reactive in nature with knee-jerk decisions taken off the outcome of an economic news event the lead up to this Federal Reserve decision has given those who can, time to write their own battle plan.
The idea behind this is that instead of being caught with brain freeze and acting as a spectator when the FOMC Chairwoman announces the committee’s decision but instead acting proactively and with a clear purpose.
That is not to say that the trading of the Federal Reserve news can be easy if planned. Such major events come with them massive amounts of volatility, gaps in the market and thin price conditions which make it difficult to execute any type of trading plan.
Managing the risk of trading the FOMC has always been a difficult undertaking however on this occasion where the uncertainty is at extreme levels the skill factor increases.
If one understands these risks what are the possible scenarios to look out for.
One and done
If the FOMC was to increase interest rates by 25 basis points but indicate that no further movement for Federal Funds is planned. The possible scenario could result in the US Dollar to spiking higher and then promptly reversing.
Federal Funds on hold for now
If the FOMC as is expected by many does not increase in September but does not rule out action taken before the end of 2015. The possible scenario could result in a rapid drop in the value of the US Dollar which is followed by a bounce and a strong appreciation.
No increase and no guidance
Highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve does or says nothing but Janet Yellen could decide not to increase interest rates and give no indication with regards to future policy. This possible scenario could possibly result in an unchecked and multiple days declines in the value of the US Dollar.
Hike and more
This scenario would probably spook the market and, therefore, is not expected to happen. In this case, the FOMC increases rates and gives guidance that further increases are on the way in 2015. This possible scenario would send the US Dollar on a multiple day rally and US stocks lower.
Of all the scenarios, I would expect that the FOMC chooses “Federal Funds on Hold for now” with a possibility that they take the “One and done” option.
The other two scenarios will either spook the markets or cause uncertainty. As the FOMC wishes to promote stability in the markets I do not see them choosing the two latter options. However. There is always room for a surprise.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH115092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1455
Target 2: 1.1250
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.1280
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH115092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5520
Target 2: 1.5330
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 1.5470
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH115092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.40
Target 2: 119.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.19
Daily control level: 120.80
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH115092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9775
Target 2: 0.9585
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.9720
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH115092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3370
Target 2: 1.3130
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119
Daily control level: 1.3220
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH115092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7220
Target 2: 0.7045
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7060
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH115092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1120.00
Target 2: 1096.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.92
Daily control level: 1103.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH115092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 47.00
Target 2: 42.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.73
Daily control level: 46.40
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.09.2015
With the United States on a course to end a six-year period were the benchmark Federal Funds interest rate is effectively at near zero levels, there is now a growing global concern that the FOMC’s action could have a potentially devastating effect on the Emerging Market nations.
The Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee are expected by many to cap a period of growth and better data for the United States economy by increasing interest rates by 10 to 25 basis points.
The FOMC has been spurred into action by an improvement in the employment picture with both the Non-Farm Payroll and Average Earnings data underscoring the strength in the US job market.
However with inflation data out this afternoon the Federal Reserve may want to see the Consumer Price Index data shrug off the effects of chronically low energy prices.
The World Bank in its aptly named report “The coming US interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Smooth sailing or stormy waters?” was released to be perfectly timed just before the FOMC is to deliberate and come to a decision. The World Bank report has voiced concerns that a move increase interest rates could cause major economic fallout for Emerging Market economies.
However, the World Bank did go on to say in its report that due the very long lead up time to the US interest rate decision and due to the expected shallow slope any tightening cycle may take, that the Emerging Market economies could work through this new interest rate environment without major consequences.
The World Bank did point to some dark clouds with concerns that Emerging Market nations who are excessively exposed to foreign denominated debt could suffer difficult times with falls in living standards and economic contraction during the period when the United States begins to normalize the low-interest rates environment.
Will the FOMC take heed of the World Banks concerns? For sure the Federal Reserve will try to mitigate risks if an interest rate hike could cause economic fallout in the Emerging Markets and China. However, the FOMC has also got to look after its own house and if this means raising interest rates is necessary to correct possible future imbalances in the domestic economy then it will act.
As for tomorrow, my feeling is that the FOMC can and will hold off for now but give further guidance which prepares the ground for a rate increase in December or early in 2016.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH116092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1365
Target 2: 1.1170
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.3000
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH116092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5440
Target 2: 1.5245
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 1.5450
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH116092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.55
Target 2: 119.25
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.14
Daily control level: 120.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH116092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9830
Target 2: 0.9650
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 0.9670
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH116092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3355
Target 2: 1.3140
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 1.3220
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH116092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7230
Target 2: 0.7055
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 0.7080
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH116092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1117.00
Target 2: 1093.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.57
Daily control level: 1103.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH116092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.50
Target 2: 43.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.54
Daily control level: 44.30
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.09.2015
We have finally made it to Thursday. As most of you should know, today the United States Federal Reserve will announce their long-awaited interest rate decision. Will they or won’t they pull the trigger and begin a path of Federal Funds Rate normalization.
We have for best part of a decade lived through a period of extraordinarily low interest rates. In these times when global interest rates have been close to zero levels, this era of cheap money has boosted equity markets and fed ballooning Emerging Market economies who have gorged themselves on cheap US Dollar denominated credit.
The prudent have during these artificial times of plenty have done what they can to get their houses in order with austerity being the rallying cry coming from the Westminster Parliament in London and from the corridors of the Bundestag in Berlin.
There has been a great deal of wealth creation during this artificially low-interest rate environment. One only needs to look at the creation of wealth in the London housing market which has allowed modest property owners to amass a great deal of wealth without breaking a sweat while others had taken the opportunity to deleverage and pay back debt in anticipation of the end of the easy times.
Summer never lasts forever. The decision makers in the Central Banks and Governments have had seven years since the events that sent Lehman’s into bankruptcy to reform the global financial system. The decision to embark on a massive Quantitative Easing program when the financial crisis began did offer some solutions, however, the Emerging Markets have now become a global economic headache and Greece is still a financial basket case.
The FOMC, however, has to put to one side the problems in the Emerging Markets and act in the interest of the United States economy. The recent US jobs data has been good, however, yesterday inflation data was weak.
Will the FOMC ignore the weak CPI numbers and pull the trigger now? I think not, however, the reason for this possible reticence to lift off is not due to the recent data but more to do with the Emerging Market story.
The consensus amongst market watchers is that only some 25% believe that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates today. There is a greater probability that the FOMC will wait until October. The Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen could wait until December, but this will once again leave her a hostage to data with event cycles for October, November, and December having to be allowed for.
The Fed, however, could confound the markets and raise rates this evening. If this was to happen it is very much a case of the message that is given to the markets. Will a rate rise be a “one and done” strategy or will the Fed signal that it is going to embark on a long cycle of interest rate increases. A more rational policy could be to increase rates and give a message of “wait and see”.
If the FOMC does not increase rates this evening, then of course the Fed statement is of paramount importance. Will the FOMC give specific forward guidance on when a rate increase will happen in the future? I very much doubt that Janet Yellen would be so accommodating, however, a message from the Fed that it is ready to move should be enough for the market to absorb this news and work through the short-term volatility.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH117092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1385
Target 2: 1.1195
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 1.1210
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH117092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5590
Target 2: 1.5385
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.5325
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH117092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.65
Target 2: 119.45
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.11
Daily control level: 120.10
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH117092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9800
Target 2: 0.9620
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 0.9760
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH117092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3275
Target 2: 1.3065
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.3250
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH117092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7255
Target 2: 0.0.7085
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7080
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH117092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1131.00
Target 2: 1107.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 11.93
Daily control level: 1103.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH117092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 50.00
Target 2: 45.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.44
Daily control level: 44.30
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.09.2015
Last night the United States Federal Reserve announced that it would be keeping its benchmark Federal Funds target interest rate on hold at 0.25%.
The decision not to move and increase rates at the September meeting was not a surprise, however, the dovishness of the ensuing press release and briefing was not expected.
Only Jeffrey Lacker of the Reserve Bank of Richmond being the only member of the committee to urge for a rate increase now. However the FOMC chairwoman did try to downplay the strength of the dovish sentiment by saying that the majority view of the committee members was that a rate increase is on the table and could happen before the end of 2015.
This brings me to a comment that Janet Yellen made which sums up the Federal Reserve’s thinking on the pending interest rate cycle when the chair of the FOMC chair told the assembled media that “at the end of the day, it’s all about the data”.
The Federal Reserve has two main mandates. These being to look after employment and inflation. With the unemployment numbers continuing to move in the right direction and with better recent data for both average earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls, the jobs picture although not completely rosy is at least no longer a paramount concern.
Furthermore with business confidence positive and the housing market now recovering the policy makers can now point to more positive signs for the United States economy.
So with the US economy seemingly performing well and much better than its competitors in Europe and Asia it is easy to see why Jeffrey Lacker would want to increase interest rates now.
The reason why the majority in the Federal Reserve decided to come down against pulling the trigger and increasing interest rates now was the continuing concerns over inflation. Only on Wednesday we had abysmal inflation data with the month on month CPI number posting a negative -0.1%.
With inflation now a long way from its 2% target the FOMC now has to deal with recent events that have affected China and other Emerging Market economies. The FOMC now has concerns that the slowdown in China combined with a strong US Dollar will have the effect of importing lower prices into the domestic economy.
The global economic uncertainty is also compounded by what is happening in Europe with the European Central Bank recently cutting its inflation target. The concerns in Frankfurt are so evident that the ECB president Mr. Mario Draghi will have real worries that deflation could take a grip of the Euro area.
The great unknown is of course China. What will be the effect of this country’s economic slowdown and financial crisis have on the global economy? This is the first major economic crisis that China has experienced since this country moved to a more open and capitalistic economy. China has grown rapidly and overtaken the likes of Germany and Japan to become the second-largest global economy. Therefore what happens in China can no longer be ignored.
The effects of globalization and the interconnectivity of global economies now make the task of the FOMC and its committee members all that much harder. The FOMC has now been transformed from being the central bank of the United States to the central banker to the world with Janet Yellen sitting on a very uncomfortable throne.
Back to the press conference and what we can take from it is that the big news was that there was no news with Janet Yellen reiterating that the FOMC policy decision making is sensitive to data. The chairwoman also went on to say that if data improves that the FOMC will move and increase the Federal Funds target rate. Janet Yellen also went on to say that if the data does not improve that the FOMC will not move.
The interpretation of this is that Janet Yellen and her colleagues at the FOMC are not sensitive to data but are actually hostages to data. Furthermore the decision to be indecisive has given the FOMC some leeway as this means FOMC is not tied to a calendar.
It also means that the markets have to beware of a possibility of the FOMC deciding to move on rates in October or December if the picture improves. However, the reticence and dovishness of the FOMC would mean that we would need to see an awful lot of improvement in both the inflation and global economic picture for this to happen. A rate increase before December does not seem likely.
So we now have another month of waiting. Just like a patient waiting for the nurse in fear of pulling off the plaster, the markets, especially in Asia and Brazil will be feeling some relief that the FOMC did not move. However, there is also a sense of urgency which is pushing the Federal Reserve to do the deed and go for an increase.
To be sure, there is going to be lots more volatility and a wild ride for all global markets.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH118092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1535
Target 2: 1.1335
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.1210
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH118092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5695
Target 2: 1.5480
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.5485
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH11809215.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.50
Target 2: 118.85
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.16
Daily control level: 121.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH118092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9695
Target 2: 0.9505
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 0.9725
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH118092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3280
Target 2: 1.3080
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.3205
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH118092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7260
Target 2: 0.7085
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 0.7140
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH118092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1143.00
Target 2: 1118.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.63
Daily control level: 1115.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH18092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 49.00
Target 2: 45.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.11
Daily control level: 46.70
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.09.2015
On Sunday, the Greek voting public once again elected the SYRIZA party, led by its charismatic leader Mr. Alexis Tsipras back into power. However with a record low turnout of some 50% the sense of voter fatigue and frustration is all too evident.
It was only a few months ago that the Greek public was requested to vote in a referendum on the European Union designed austerity programme. Although Greeks backed Prime Minister Tsipras call to oppose Brussels this exercise of the democratic process was ignored. The decision to ignore the vote and sign off a very harsh austerity programme was taken by no other than Alexis Tsipras.
That Alexis Tsipras was able to galvanize enough support for his SYRIZA party to be re-elected back into power after it had mishandled the negotiations with the European Union is a testimony to the lack of respect the Greek public have for the traditional and establishment back PASOK and New Democracy political parties.
The support for SYRIZA was not overwhelming as it is doubtful that it will win enough seats to gain an absolute Parliamentary majority. It is expected that SYRIZA will take 145 of 300 seats in the Greek Parliament. However, the nationalist Independent Greeks that are led by Panos Kammenos has pledged to support SYRIZA with some 10 seats. The combined SYRIZA / Independent Greek coalition will, therefore, have 305 seats which is sufficient for the formation of a majority Government.
With a second election victory in as little as 9 months under his belt, Alexis Tsipras can now push ahead with reforming the Greek economy. Alexis Tsipras has gone from a staunch adversary to Brussels inspired austerity to being it’s unlikely and some may say unwilling champion of austerity.
This election result was a victory for stability with Greek voters realizing that although their cause to be just and their personal pain real that there was no alternative. It was either reform within the European Area or leave the Euro. This was a price most Greeks were unwilling to pay.
Alexis Tsipras armed with a new mandate can now tackled structural issues that were created during decades of mismanagement under previous New Democracy and PASOK administrations. The hope of many is that Alexis Tsipras can sweep away the corrupt practices of the past and take Greece into a new era of economic growth and correct governance.
The tasks are many, but Tsipras has time on his side. The implementation of reforms to the state sector and pensions is urgent. Furthermore, there is a need for long-delayed privatization programme to move ahead.
I hope and wish that Alexis Tsipras is both bold and lucky over the next few years. However, most of all I hope that Alexis Tsipras embraces the moment and takes this once in a lifetime opportunity to reform Greece for the good of all its citizens.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH121092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1385
Target 2: 1.1180
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.1460
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH121092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5630
Target 2: 1.5415
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 1.5660
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH121092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.20
Target 2: 119.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.09
Daily control level: 119.70
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH121092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9750
Target 2: 0.9550
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 0.9725
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH121092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3340
Target 2: 1.3125
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.3010
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH121092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7270
Target 2: 0.7095
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7140
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH121092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1151.00
Target 2: 1126.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.62
Daily control level: 1115.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH121092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 47.00
Target 2: 43.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 47.17
Daily control level: 47.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.09.2015
Septembers Federal Reserve meeting and the press conference has passed with a whimper. An overly dovish Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee surprised the markets by the tone and wording of that accompanied their decision to keep interest rates at the <0.25% target.
According the FOMC’s calendar, the schedule has two more meetings for that will happen this year. The first meeting takes place on October 27 – 28 and the second on December 15 -16.
What should we expect from these meetings? In my previous post, I said that Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the FOMC are data sensitive. The two main current influences on the Federal Reserve decision-making process being the inflation outlook and the economic slowdown that is taking a hold off China and other Emerging Market nations.
However, the FOMC chairwoman did say that a decision to increase rates was still on the table. As soon as the conditions merited that action was required.
We have some five weeks of economic activity to be absorbed and deliberated before the next FOMC meeting takes place. Is it really possibly that a financial and economic slowdown that has persistently continued to worry global decision makers will abate over the next few weeks?
Will we see by October 28, improvements in the inflation outlook and Emerging Markets that are sufficient to give the FOMC committee members enough confidence to pull the trigger and hike interest rates? It is doubtful that the data will change that much even by the December meeting.
The markets are now stuck within a spiral of uncertainty as they become increasingly unsure of the Federal Reserve’s intentions. Last Friday the Bank of England’s Chief Economists argued the merits of even cutting UK interest rates. The British economy is seen as the one that closely resembled that of the United States. If influential voices within the Bank of England and are openly discussing the possibility of cutting UK interest rates, then the same discussion will also be taking place with the walls of the Federal Reserve building.
The possibility of an October or December lift off seems very unlikely. A move by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates at one of the next two meetings could still happen. However, following the dovish position the FOMC has taken, such a decision would be out of step with their most recent statements.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH12209.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1295
Target 2: 1.1080
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.1330
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH12209.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5620
Target 2: 15400
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112
Daily control level: 1.5525
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH12209.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.60
Target 2: 119.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06
Daily control level: 119.70
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH12209.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9800
Target 2: 0.9620
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 0.9640
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH12209.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3355
Target 2: 1.3150
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.3175
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH12209.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7150
Target 2: 0.7040
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7280
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH12209.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1145.00
Target 2: 1120.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.54
Daily control level: 1129.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH12209.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 47.00
Target 2: 43.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.88
Daily control level: 47.25
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.09.2015
Many commentators and market professionals have commented that United States Federal Reserve decision not to increase rates was due to worries over inflation and the recent economic contraction in China.
This morning we received further bad news from China when Markit released poor Caixin Flash Manufacturing numbers.
A Flash PMI reading of above 50.0 would indicate that the economy is experiencing Industrial expansion. This morning’s numbers, however, continued to disappoint with the Flash Manufacturing PMI remaining stubbornly in a downtrend. Furthermore, this latest measure of industrial activity which was measured at 47.0 not only came in under the prior month’s number of 47.3 but also disappointed forecasters who had predicted a reading of 47.6.
So with the Chinese economic contraction continuing to cloud the thoughts of the decision makers, across the Pacific Ocean in Washington, D.C, should the turmoil that is currently being faced by the Emerging Markets take centre stage as one of the key policy consideration together with the slow pace of inflation growth and the drop off in in commodity prices?
There is, of course, another policy concern that although has been mention has taken a bit of a back seat to the Emerging Markets and low inflation environment story. That is the strength of the US Dollar which in recent months has now become an obstacle to the Federal Reserve acting on its policy goals.
A US Dollar at the current price levels can have two major detrimental effects. First of all, US Dollar strength can have a negative impact on the competitive advantage of US exporters. The simple reason for this being that US goods become more expensive and, therefore, more difficult to export. The slowdown in US exports will also put a damper on economic growth and expansion in the industrial and service sector.
The impact of the high US Dollar can be immediate as Europeans elect to stay on the continent rather than their take vacations in Florida and the Pacific West Coast. On the other hand, US consumers will take advantage of the cheaper Euro and British Pound and flock to Europe where they can spend their Dollars.
The other impact a strong US Dollar can have on the US economy and therefore FOMC thinking is a fear that the 2% inflation target will not be reached in the foreseeable further. With commodity prices already at lows and with the cost of Chinese and European industrial products keenly priced the very idea that the Federal Reserve will embark on a cycle of interest rate rises will strengthen the US Dollar and further worsen an anaemic domestic inflation picture.
This leads us back to the FOMC’s decision not to increase interest rates last week and the probability that Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee will play the same hand when they meet in October and December.
With the Federal Reserve seemingly unwilling to hike interest rates in fear that a move too soon will choke off the US recovery, what will Mr. Mario Draghi and his colleagues at the European Central Bank do to counteract the lack of action by the US Federal Reserve? We already had a response which is more monetary easing in the form of QE2 if it is required.
With the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane only last week mentioning the possibility of a UK interest rate cut and with China also easing it would appear that the new normal of low-interest rates, low growth and low inflation is here to stay for some considerable time.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH123092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1220
Target 2: 1.1015
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.1210
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH123092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5480
Target 2: 1.5245
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117
Daily control level: 1.5525
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH123092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.20
Target 2: 119.05
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.08
Daily control level: 119.70
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH123092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9845
Target 2: 0.9660
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 0.9705
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH123092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3355
Target 2: 1.3150
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.3215
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH123092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7180
Target 2: 0.7000
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 0.7160
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH123092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1136.00
Target 2: 1111.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.80
Daily control level: 1137.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH123092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 48.35
Target 2: 45.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.78
Daily control level: 47.25
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.09.2015
This morning at 9:00 London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers.
This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.
The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.
Due to the size and breadth of this report the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.
The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.
Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.
The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.
The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight decrease to 107.8, as compared to the previous number of 108.3.
A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.
The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic business outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.
As economic expansion is seen as being inflationary and economic contraction being deflationary the European Central Bank, (ECB) may step in an increase or decrease interest rates so as to ensure that the influential and dominant German economy does not grow or contract too quickly.
Today’s Ifo release is even more relevant due to the recent news that broke, that the German global automotive giant, Volkswagen had manipulated data on US diesel car emissions.
That a well-respected and much-loved brand such as Volkswagen had allowed its standards to slip has sent shock waves through the global automobile industry and dented consumer confidence and trust.
Although the feedback thus far, is that this case of data manipulation is not an industry wide transgression, the fallout could have a detrimental effect on Brand Germany. We have already seen equity values in automakers tumbled across world stock markets. The timing of this news could not have been more inappropriate with global indices breaking down from technical bearish long term patterns.
The Volkswagen Company, since its rebirth from the ruins of ashes of the Second World War, has been a champion of innovation and efforts to produce automobiles that are efficient and as non-polluting as possible to the environment. The very idea one of Europe’s industrial champions had misled its clients for sure is going to depress consumer confidence at the very time when the global economy is flat-lining.
It is expected that the fines that will be imposed on the Volkswagen group will be large. The company has already set aside EUR 6.5 billion, but many expect that potential financial penalties could top USD 18 billion. However, what could be more costly is the reputational cost of this scandal. The Volkswagen Company now needs to work in overdrive to reassure the public that this will not happen again.
Most of all, what is needed is an independent, consumer sponsored body that can independently test and verify vehicle emissions.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH124092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1290
Target 2: 1.1085
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.1210
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH124092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5365
Target 2: 1.5130
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119
Daily control level: 1.5525
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH124092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.25
Target 2: 119.25
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.02
Daily control level: 119.70
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH124092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9890
Target 2: 0.9710
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 0.9735
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH124092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3415
Target 2: 1.3225
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.3230
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH124092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7090
Target 2: 0.6910
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7160
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH124092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1143.00
Target 2: 1117.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.76
Daily control level: 1137.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH124092015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 46.50
Target 2: 43.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.86
Daily control level: 47.25
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.09.2015
A little over a week ago, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen announced that the committee that she chairs had decided to keep the Fed Funds target rate at 0.25%
In a statement and the following press briefing, the FOMC boss emphasized a rather dovish tone. There are now, only two more rate decisions dates left for 2015 that take place on October 27 – 28 and December 15 -16.
With time seemingly running out, many traders, investors and other market participants are now expecting that there would be no move taken to increase the Fed Funds rate at the two up and coming meetings.
There are now increasing concerns over the economic slowdown in China. This is compounded by a pessimistic picture developing in other emerging market nations with fears that a sharp contraction in Latin Americas biggest economy, Brazil will affect other countries in the region.
There are also ongoing concerns with respect to the weak inflation picture with CPI data falling a long way short from its 2% target number. The anaemic inflation outlook is now compounded by the strong United States Dollar with the Green Backs strength now being a source of imported deflationary pressure as American business and industry are able to purchase foreign products and services at less expense.
The strong US Dollar will also have an eventual effect on growth, especially if it continues to appreciate in value. The concern is now growing amongst US producers that their products are being priced out of the market and making it increasingly difficult to export to global markets.
With so many factors stacked up against increase the Feds Fund rate before the end of 2015, it was understandable that the FOMC decided to hold back on an interest rate increase in September.
However, last night during a very long speech that was given to the University of Massachusetts, Janet Yellen decided to reignite the debate on the merits of a 2015 interest rate increase. Stating that the future outlook for US economy “generally appear solid”, Yellen went on to say the FOMC was “on track” to increase interest rates.
In contradictory statements, Janet Yellen during yesterday’s speech attempted to cover all her bases. On the one had the FOMC boss said of the current emerging market crisis that she and her fellow policymakers did not expect to significant impact on policy.
At the same time, on the question of inflation and a potential slow increase in CPI data. Janet Yellen said, “should such a development occur, we would need to adjust the stance of policy in response”.
From this viewpoint and as written in prior articles, if the time was not right to increase interest rates in September, why should the Federal Reserve take the next step and move in October or December. How much will really change during the last quarter to end a period of six years of historical low Federal Funds rates. Especially as such a move will cause the US Dollar to further strengthen and thus making US domestic production more uncompetitive.
Last night’s speech was a case of Janet Yellen trying to reel in the dovish sentiment that followed the overly accommodating comments of last week’s FOMC announcement. This deliberate attempt of forward misguidance will, of course, keep the markets on edge for the next three months.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH125052015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1340
Target 2: 1.1120
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH125052015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5360
Target 2: 1.5125
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.01118
Daily control level: 1.5525
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH1250520151.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.00
Target 2: 119.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.03
Daily control level: 120.55
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH125052015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9850
Target 2: 0.9650
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 0.9800
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH12505215.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3400
Target 2: 1.3200
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.3305
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH12505215.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7120
Target 2: 0.6930
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.7160
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH125052015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1165.00
Target 2: 1137.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.14
Daily control level: 1121.25
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH125052015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 46.00
Target 2: 43.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.85
Daily control level: 47.25
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.10.2015
According to Christine Lagarde, who heads the International Monetary Fund global growth for 2015 is unlikely to keep pace with the performance of 2014. Furthermore, the IMF president only expects a small pickup in global growth for next year.
Mrs. Lagarde pointed to the slowdown in China as a major concern. However, the IMF boss in a passing shot across the bows of the United States Federal Reserve said that there is potential for a “vicious cycle” occurring due to the expectations that the Feds Fund rate will be increased by the end of the year.
Lagarde spoke of her concerns over the global economy at the Council of the Americas. The World Bank and IMF are due to hold their annual meetings next week. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund is due to publish its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. There are now substantial fears that a move to a cycle of increasing interest rates would further damage the economies of Asia, Latin America and more specifically the Emerging Market nations of China and Brazil.
Next week’s IMF and World Bank meetings will give those hoping the FOMC keeps a foot on the brake, the opportunity to push the debate towards keeping the Fed Funds rate at the present level.
Christine Lagarde highlighted her fears by saying:
“The good news is that we are seeing a modest pickup in advanced economies. The moderate recovery is strengthening in the euro Area; Japan is returning to positive growth, and activity remains robust in the US and the UK as well.”
“The not-so-good news is that emerging economies are likely to see their fifth consecutive year of declining rates of growth.”
“On the economic front, there is … reason to be concerned. The prospect of rising interest rates in the United States and China’s slowdown are contributing to uncertainty and higher market volatility.”
“Rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar could reveal currency mismatches, leading to corporate defaults… and a vicious cycle between corporates, banks, and sovereigns.”
The timing of Lagarde’s comments would have been carefully chosen. With the Federal Reserve due to meet on October 27 to 28, this incisive intervention was aimed to sow seeds of doubt in the minds of the FOMC boss Janet Yellen and her hawkish colleagues on the committee.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH101102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1280
Target 2: 1.1060
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.1145
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH101102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5235
Target 2: 1.5050
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117
Daily control level: 1.5215
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH101012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 120.75
Target 2: 118.85
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.98
Daily control level: 119.50
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH101012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9820
Target 2: 0.9840
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 0.9815
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH101012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3400
Target 2: 1.3210
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.3455
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH101012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7100
Target 2: 0.6930
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.6995
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH101012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1128.00
Target 2: 1100.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.91
Daily control level: 1134.65
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH101012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 47.00
Target 2: 44.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.59
Daily control level: 44.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.10.2015
It is once again upon us, the once a month Friday Job Report. The significance of today’s jobs numbers is great with the United States Federal Reserve due to give us their interest rate decision rate on October 27 – 28.
The FOMC failed to increase the Fed Funds interest rate in September with the chairwoman of the committee, Janet Yellen citing concerns over weak inflation and the contraction in the global economy and more specifically the Emerging Market nations of China and more recently Brazil.
Yesterday, the Department of Labor published a disappointing number which saw Unemployment Claims increase to 277,000. The market had expected an increase to 273,000, with the prior week’s number standing at 267,000.
This afternoon Jobs Report, brought to us by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will include the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate and the headline Non-Farm Employment Change.
Will the September report give the US Federal Reserve the confidence to begin its much-delayed agenda to normalize the interest rate environment? The forecast is predicting that the US job market to add 201,000 places for September. However, traders will also be looking at the August number to see if there will be an upward revision to the rather disappointing 173,000 data release.
The forecast for Average hourly earnings is that the pace of expansion will drop from the prior months 0.3% to 0.2%. The Federal Reserve will be hoping for an uptick in this data will be a signal that wage inflation is healthy and expanding at manageable levels.
The disappointing Unemployment Claims data was accompanied by an equally soft ISM manufacturing number. Although the market had predicted a decline from 51.1 to 50.8 the actual release was reported as 50.2. This brings the manufacturing sector close to levels of contraction.
Yesterday was not all about disappointing data as the Total Vehicle Sales release of 18.2M beating expectations of 17.5M and the prior release of 17.8M. With the data being so mixed, the Federal Reserve will really need to see a Jobs Report that shows marked improvement and that is supported by substantial revisions to the August NFP data.
The sentiment prior to today’s announcement points to the FOMC not taking any action on interest rates in 2015 with just 20% predicting a rise in October and 40% in December. With the members of the Federal Reserve leaning unconvincingly and without conviction towards an increase in 2015, today’s Jobs Report is going to give Janet Yellen and her team lots to think about.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH102102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1300
Target 2: 1.1085
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 1.1145
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH102102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5240
Target 2: 1.5015
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115
Daily control level: 1.5215
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH102102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 120.85
Target 2: 118.90
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.95
Daily control level: 119.50
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH102102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9855
Target 2: 0.9680
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 0.9815
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH102102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3365
Target 2: 1.3165
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.3455
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH102102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7110
Target 2: 0.6945
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.6995
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH102102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1127.00
Target 2: 1099.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.21
Daily control level: 1119.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH102102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 47.00
Target 2: 44.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.66
Daily control level: 44.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.10.2015
Friday’s dull afternoon was livened up considerably once the job data news was released. The data for the month of September reported that only 142,000 new jobs had been created. This report would have had the FOMC Chairwoman Janet Yellen scratching her head.
The market had been expecting Non-Farm Payroll Employment Change data post 201,000 new positions filled. This news sent the equity markets rallying and the US Dollar crashing.
In the further gloomy news, there was an expectation that the August release would be revised considerably higher. However much to the markets surprise, the revision was actually downwards with the Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing that there was in fact 59,000 fewer jobs created for the months of July and August.
There was also bad news on when it came to salaries with the Average Hourly Earnings number also missing expectation as it posted a decline to 0.0% versus market expectations of 0.2%.
The only bright spot on the horizon was the Unemployment Rate data which was reported as remaining at a low 5.1% for the second month in succession.
Friday’s jobs announcements round off a bad week for the US Labour market with Thursdays Unemployment Claims report that was released by the Department of Labor also disappointing the markets.
The September Jobs Report caught many market participants off guard would have would have shocked Janet Yellen and her fellow committee members on the Federal Reserve. However, there is also an undercurrent developing that the FOMC had knowledge that something was not totally healthy with the jobs picture. This would go a long way to explaining the overly dovish September, Federal Reserve meeting.
The main consequence of this stunning news has now seen the market price has pushed out the timing of an interest rate increase out to March 2016. Will the FOMC now still go ahead an increase interest rates in 2015? October now looks well and truly looks off the table. December could still happen but we now only have two months of data left for the Federal Reserve to consider. This means that there needs to be a rapid improvement in the data if the Federal Reserve is to act on interest rates this year.
With some much uncertainty surrounding the United States and global economy and with US jobs numbers looking extremely soft the obvious course of action the Federal Reserve to take is do nothing in 2015 as it increasingly appears that now is not the time to increase interest rates.
Furthermore, although market expectations should not dictate Federal Reserve policy, the pricing-in, of an interest rise for March 2016 would seem logical, as it gives Janet Yellen and her colleagues more data points to consider before they decide to increase interest rates.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH105102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1335
Target 2: 1.1100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117
Daily control level: 1.1145
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH105102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5305
Target 2: 1.5075
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116
Daily control level: 1.5105
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH105102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5305
Target 2: 1.5075
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116
Daily control level: 1.5105
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH105102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9800
Target 2: 0.9610
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.9795
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH1051020151.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3255
Target 2: 1.3040
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.3250
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH105102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7135
Target 2: 0.6970
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.7000
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH1051020151.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1154.00
Target 2: 1121.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.40
Daily control level: 1104.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH105102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.00
Target 2: 44.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.72
Daily control level: 44.20
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.10.2015
The Reserve Bank of Australia this morning hosted its monthly policy meeting. The outcome of the meeting was the decision by the RBA to keep its benchmark cash rate on at 2% for the sixth straight month in succession.
This inaction was widely expected, especially as last month’s decision by the United States Federal Reserve to keep their own Fed Funds rate on hold was reinforced by a very soft Jobs Report which took many market participants and commentators by surprise.
The Reserve Bank of Australia now has a window of opportunity to be patient whilst it gauges the effect of its recent policy of monetary easing. Especially as it seems unlikely that a US rate hike will not happen during the FOMC’s October or December meetings with the markets now pricing in an initial rate increase for March 2016.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, in its statement, cited internal factors as being a key reason why the central bank declined to choose a path of further easing by pointed to a better than expected economic outlook.
There will further news from other central banks tomorrow. The trading day starts early on Wednesday with the Bank of Japan issuing its monthly Bank of Japan Report.
This is followed by news from London when we expect to see no change to the Official Bank Rate which currently stands at 0.50%.
However, traders and investors will be anxious to see if there is a shift in the prior month’s committee member bias. In September, the dovish sentiment won the day with the vote strongly in favour in keeping the rates unchanged with a majority of 8 to 1.
The way the members vote is not the whole story. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Statement should give us an insight on the current strength or weakness in the dovish bias. Furthermore, the markets will be looking for any references to the United States and more specifically, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates and last week’s poor Jobs Report.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH106102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1295
Target 2: 1.1065
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116
Daily control level: 1.1145
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH106102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5250
Target 2: 1.5030
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.5105
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH10612015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.45
Target 2: 119.45
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99
Daily control level: 118.65
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH106102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9845
Target 2: 0.9660
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 0.9795
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH106102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3190
Target 2: 1.2975
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.3250
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH106102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7165
Target 2: 0.6970
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7050
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH106102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1150.00
Target 2: 1120.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.61
Daily control level: 1129.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH106102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.00
Target 2: 45.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070
Daily control level: 44.20
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.10.2015
As many have expected the International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast for this year. The IMF has reduced its forecast by 0.2% from 3.3% to 3.1%. Furthermore, the IMF has also cut it’s estimated for 2016 from 3.8% to 3.6%.
These amendments to World growth were included in the IMF’s latest report in which it reiterate its pessimistic view on the global economy by saying “A return to robust and synchronized global expansion remains elusive”.
The IMF pointed to key areas of concern which it believed could play a significant part in stunting future growth.
Geopolitical risk
High on the agenda is the recent escalation of tensions in Syria and the Russian intervention to support the Government in Damascus.
The fears of escalating Geopolitical tensions and concerns that the fluid and unstable situations in Ukraine, Middle East and Africa could cause major uncertainty and further polarize the conflicting interests.
The Turkish Government has now gone as far as to hand out to its Russian counterpart a stiff warning. This followed Russian Airforce fighter incursion into Turkish airspace. The prospect of a NATO nation engaging the Russian military on the Syrian border is a worrying scenario and will do little to calm market volatility.
Lower oil and commodity prices
The IMF also mentioned bleak commodity picture which has done much to weaken, Russia, Australia, Nigeria and has led to belt-tightening in the Middle East. The decline in the price of Oil has in recent weeks stopped with Light Sweet Crude now trading back up to the US Dollar 50.00 per barrel.
Potential for a sharper than expected Chinese slowdown
The Chinese Government has a policy goal to evolve the nation’s economy from one that is an investment based to one that of a developed consumption profile.
The concern is that the Chinese economic metamorphosis is not managed correctly. This could lead to a larger than expected economic contraction. The prospect of the Chinese Government losing control of its tightly run economy could have unforeseen circumstances not just for China but the global economy. Furthermore, any over-correction could take a long time to fix. Therefore, China watchers will be hoping that any transition takes place with a soft economic landing.
Greece
Although Greece is no longer in the international headlines, the problems that this country faces are immense. The Greek people recently voted back into power a SYRIZA-led coalition with the Prime Minister, Mr. Alexis Tsipras being the unlikely poster boy of European austerity. The Greek issue has not been solved. The can has just been kicked down the road until the next crisis happens.
Emerging Markets
Some but not all of the Emerging Markets have been caught in the eye of a hurricane. This is due to a debt-fuelled binge, a strong US Dollar and a fall in commodity prices. The markets had expected that the United States Federal Reserve was going to increase interest rates in September. However, the decision to keep rates on hold and following the worse than expected jobs report, some of the pressure on Emerging Market economies has been lifted. That the FOMC has now included the risk of international conditions as a key area of concern should give the likes of Brazil and Malaysia some hope in the medium term.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH107102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1380
Target 2: 1.1600
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 1.1170
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH107102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5330
Target 2: 1.5120
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.5135
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH107102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.50
Target 2: 119.25
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.96
Daily control level: 118.70
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH107102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9755
Target 2: 0.9570
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092
Daily control level: 0.9765
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH107102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3140
Target 2: 1.2930
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.3135
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH107102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7245
Target 2: 0.7085
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.7050
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH107102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1162.00
Target 2: 1131.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.52
Daily control level: 1129.60
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH107102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 51.00
Target 2: 47.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.80
Daily control level: 46.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.10.2015
A few months ago there was a strong possibility that the Bank of England Governor would be the first amongst his peers to increase interest rates.
However, with the FOMC Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaking in an overly dovish tone during the September Federal Reserve meeting, the window of opportunity for a Bank of England interest rate nominalization has diminished considerably.
If we now add to the equation, a very poor recent United States Jobs Report and a heightened degree of uncertainty emanating from the Federal Reserve, over their intentions, the task of the Bank of England’s Governor, Mr. Mark Carney has become a more difficult one to say the least.
Not so long ago, the markets had expected the Federal Reserve to make their move and increase US interest rates by the end of 2015. However, with so much changing in recent weeks, the markets have now pushed back the timing of the first rate increase to March 2016.
In the United Kingdom, traders and investors have taken their cue from what is happening across the pond in the United States. With the Bank of England’s, 2% inflation target not expected to be reached by the back end of 2016 the markets have now pushed back the timing of the initial move to happen by late 2016 or early 2017.
Market have not always been very good at predicting interest rates. What is certain is that the Bank of England will not move today and increase the Official Bank Rate from its present 0.5% level. Such a surprise move would be a seismic shock to the markets. The Bank of England is not in the business of delivering shocks as its main policy goal is to ensure price stability.
If one was to discount the possibility of the Bank of England moving on interest rates before the Federal Reserve, what are the factors we need to consider?
From a hawkish, perspective let’s consider the following. The UK labour market metrics, it can be argued are now calling for an interest rate rise to happen ahead of the inflation curve. Furthermore, it should be considered that the current low levels of Consumer Price Index data is a product of low energy prices. If we consider that the current low level of demand for energy and its oversupply to the market is supposed to be a temporary condition, then the current level of inflation is also transitory. Once energy prices move back up to what are seen as prior normal levels, then it can be argued that CPI data will move in step and reach the 2% inflation target that is required by the Bank of England.
There is also a very strong dovish counter argument. The question is where will inflation come from. Commodity prices are still depressed and the Labour market is improving but one would not say that wage inflation has expanded to unmanageable levels.
The call for Mark Carney and his counterpart at the FOMC, Janet Yellen is this. Can they trust the trend in the data sufficiently to make a call on future inflation? This is a very difficult task for all Central Banks as they need to effectively aim at a moving target which is a product of data that is not yet available. A case in point being the extremely bad US jobs data that was released prior to the end of October FOMC meeting.
The current level of inflation and the data that produced this result are known. The question is, can Mark Carney and his colleagues on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, with a degree accuracy time their move to ensure that both overtly expansive inflation is avoided whilst at the same time a premature action does not take place which cripples the fragile growth that the UK economy has enjoyed recently.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH108102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1340
Target 2: 1.1135
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.1210
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH10812015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5415
Target 2: 1.5215
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.5135
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH108102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 120.85
Target 2: 119.15
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.88
Daily control level: 119.75
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH108102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9515
Target 2: 0.9650
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.9765
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH108102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3140
Target 2: 1.2930
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.3135
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH108102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7280
Target 2: 0.7125
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080
Daily control level: 0.7050
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH108102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1160.50
Target 2: 1130.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.28
Daily control level: 1129.50
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH108102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 50.00
Target 2: 47.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.73
Daily control level: 46.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.10.2015
The latest release of Federal Reserve minutes told us that the members of the committee were, on the whole, confident that the United States economy could bear the cost of an interest rate rise in the latter part of 2015. This was despite the fact that the deteriorating Jobs Report that followed the FOMC meeting gave the markets little confidence that domestic economic conditions are improving.
The FOMC chairwoman, Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee viewed it “prudent” to keep the Fed Funds interest rates at the <0.25 target. The Federal Reserve continued to be a hostage to data with the policy decision makers looking for confirmation that the United States economy is on the path of sustainable growth and that inflation would reach the 2% target which is deemed by the majority of Central Banks as normal healthy.
The FOMC has now according to the minutes highlighted the risks of a continued contraction in China and the Emerging Market nations. There is a fear being that US Dollar would strengthen further as it is fuelled my higher US interest rates. The stronger US Dollar would have the effect of harming the competitiveness of exporters and in turn further depress the domestic growth outlook.
It now looks unlikely that the FOMC will move on interest rates in October. Furthermore, a December Fed Funds interest rate increase is now become more and more a distant possibility with the markets over the past week pricing in a move in happening in March 2016.
Confidence and confirmation are now quickly becoming the new Federal Reserve catch phrases. The use of this language by the FOMC only highlights the indecisive mood that has now gripped the committee. The minutes of the Fed meeting told a story of the Doves on one side, deciding to sit on the fence in fear of acting prematurely and the Hawks on the other side, arguing the case of an interest rise so as to avert inflationary pressures causing unwanted consequences.
The consequence of the current Federal Reserve failure to act leads to a growing view that FOMC policy is diverging from tight constraints of monitoring inflation and the labour market. Federal Reserve policy has morphed since Janet Yellen took up its leadership. We now have a Federal Reserve that takes into consideration every possible crisis, be it Greece, China, the Emerging Markets and then fails to act.
The fear of pulling the plaster will create a belief that the Federal Reserve will never act because the conditions will never be perfect for a rate increase. The FOMC needs to grasp the bull by the horns. The conditions will never be optimal for a rate increase as there will always be another crisis around the corner. The Federal Reserve should act on interest rates once the metrics on jobs and inflation tell them that conditions or more or less met.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH109102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1375
Target 2: 1.1175
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.1235
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH109102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5450
Target 2: 1.5240
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.5260
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH109102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 120.75
Target 2: 119.10
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84
Daily control level: 120.10
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH109102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9735
Target 2: 0.9560
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.9740
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH109102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3115
Target 2: 1.2915
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.3075
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH109102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7340
Target 2: 0.7180
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.7160
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH109102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7340
Target 2: 0.7180
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.7160
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH109102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 51.00
Target 2: 48.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79
Daily control level: 48.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.10.2015
The annual Columbus Day holiday is once again upon us which means it’s a Bank holiday in the United States. With citizens of Japan and Canada also enjoying bank holidays, trading is typically erratic and low in liquidity.
Away from the celebrations, three of Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s colleagues on the committee will be giving speeches. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Mr. Dennis Lockhart will be addressing the Association for University Business and Economic Research’s Fall Conference, in Orlando on the subject that is of greatest concern to policymakers and the markets. This being his view on the United States economic outlook.
Later in the day, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Mr. Charles Evans will address the 49th World Steel Association and this is followed by the Federal Reserve Governor, Mrs. Lael Brainard, will be speaking at the National Association for Business Economics, in Washington on the subject of the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.
With so many of her colleagues speaking about the economy the state of the US economy, the Columbus Day holiday will no doubt give the FOMC Chairwoman the time to contemplate the economic outlook.
With the October rate decision soon to be upon us there is a small possibility that the Federal Reserve will decide to increase interest rates. However, the Bank of England Governor, Mr. Mark Carney has expressed his viewed that a move on interest rates is not contingent on the Federal Reserve acting first. Carney expresses this view last Thursday when he said.
“The exact timing of the Fed move is not decisive for the timing of the move by the Bank of England”.
A much more hawkish view on interest rates, was expressed by a former Bank of England, Mr. Andrew Sentence when he said that Central Banks are giving too much significance to areas of concern that are short term in nature such as the current low price of Crude Oil.
Mr. Sentence went on to say,
“We have independent central banks because they are meant to be courageous, they are meant to try and get ahead of the curve, they are meant to do things that politicians might find difficult and they don’t seem to behaving in that way at the moment”.
With a more aggressive tone coming from both former and current Bank of England policymakers, it might be for the Janet Yellen to ditch her prudent attitude on interest rates and take the plunge.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH112102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1460
Target 2: 1.1260
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.1235
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH112102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5410
Target 2: 1.5215
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.5260
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH1121020151.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.00
Target 2: 119.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.81
Daily control level: 119.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH1121020151.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9735
Target 2: 0.9560
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.9740
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH112102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3060
Target 2: 1.2680
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.2990
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH112102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7400
Target 2: 0.7230
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7300
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH112102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1172.00
Target 2: 1139.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.45
Daily control level: 1136.50
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH112102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 52.00
Target 2: 48.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.78
Daily control level: 48.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.10.2015
Today, two of the biggest economies within the European Union are to release significant data. From the United Kingdom, we will have the latest inflation data and from the Euro Zones industrial engine, Germany we will have sentiment data which will be published after the damaging Volkswagen scandal has come to light.
UK CPI release
The action begins early this morning at 9:30 am London time, when the Office for National Statistics we will release the UK Consumer Price Index, which it is considered a benchmark for the U.K. economy inflation gauge as it measures the change in the goods and services purchased by the consumers.
The CPI is used for the Bank of England inflation target, which is currently set at 2%. The inflation rate is significant to a currency valuation because the rising consumer prices lead to the rising country’s interest rate.
The index inspects the weighted average of prices of a given basket, compounded out of consumer goods and services, which include items such food, medical services and transportation. The CPI is calculated by averaging the prices of the basket items, before categorising them by their importance.
The CPI number was steadily declining since the second half of 2011 when inflation hit the top of 5.2% in July. Last March the United Kingdom has officially entered “no growth zone” with the release coming to 0.0% for the first time in the index history. The May release disappointed the markets even further when it was published at -0.1%, entering the phase of deflation and prolonging the long-awaited interest rate hike further.The data is steadily fluctuating between -0.1% to 0.1%, the analysts expect the inflation indicator to remain near zero in the near future.
The British economy however still remains less susceptible to the economic slowdown than the rest of its European neighbours, since keeping own currency allows the UK for more freedom in market adjustments as well as to some extent prevents the spread of contagion from the destabilized recently Eurozone.
The recent hawkish comments on interest rates emanating from both current and past Bank of England officials has helped the British Pound appreciate over the past 5 trading sessions. This bullish feel to the Pound has continued into this morning. If a pickup in inflation is reported today the potential for an acceleration in the buying of the Pound should not be ruled out.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH113102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1455
Target 2: 1.1260
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.1345
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH113102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5410
Target 2: 1.5215
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.5300
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH113102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 120.80
Target 2: 119.25
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.78
Daily control level: 119.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH113102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9715
Target 2: 0.9540
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.9595
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH113102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3095
Target 2: 1.2895
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.2900
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH113102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7440
Target 2: 0.7280
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.7300
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH113102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1179.00
Target 2: 1146.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.57
Daily control level: 1136.50
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH113102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 49.00
Target 2: 46.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79
Daily control level: 50.55
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.10.2015
According to data published yesterday by the Office for National Statistics, inflation dropped below zero. Although not a huge shock, the latest Consumer Price Index reports that inflation now stands at -0.1. This latest report places CPI data well below the Bank of England’s target of 2%. This would imply that the Governor of the Bank England, Mr. Mark Carney and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee are now further away than ever in increasing the benchmark rate of interest.
For the ordinary person on the street of London and the rest of the United Kingdom, the drop off in inflation is not actually bad news. Deflation, however, is for many an economist is a nasty word. One only need to look at Japan which has suffered from deflation for over a decade.
However, the similarities between the Japanese and the United Kingdom’s economy are few and far between. The big difference being that of public debt, with the Japanese economy struggling to cope under a mountain off borrowings that equates to over 200% of GDP. The UK, on the other hand, has a much more manageable debt burden which is just under 90% of the country’s GDP.
Back in April of this year, inflation dropped beneath zero, however, since then, the level of CPI has hovered around 0.00%. This is not bad news for the average British citizen as this means that the cost of living has not risen. Additionally, average earnings in the UK have also risen and this has had the effect on making the majority of those in paid employment richer.
Prices in the UK have been pushed lower. The reason for this is due to the drop-off in the price of commodities such as Iron Ore, Copper and Tin. Furthermore, the glut in Crude Oil supply has also led to the cost of fuel and energy prices falling.
The well-publicized supermarket wars have also meant that the average price for the grocery basket is now lower than a year ago. The fall in food prices has coincided with the appreciation in the British Pound which has driven down the cost of food imports. A seasonal factor behind the decrease in food prices is due to good weather conditions creating an abundant supply of cheap food products.
With inflation flat lining, the pressure is now off the Bank of England to increase interest rates. The Bank of England’s is now predicting that inflation will reach 1% by the spring of 2016. It does seem a little optimistic that in a little under half a year that inflation will pick up by over 1%. Especially as news this morning out of the Far East, from the National Bureau of Statistics, indicated that Chinese CPI missed expectations by dropping to 1.6%
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH114102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1470
Target 2: 1.1284
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 1.1355
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH114102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5345
Target 2: 1.5150
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.5385
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH114102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 120.45
Target 2: 119.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.74
Daily control level: 120.35
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH114102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9660
Target 2: 0.9495
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 0.9645
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH114102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3135
Target 2: 1.2940
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.2900
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH114102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7325
Target 2: 0.7160
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.7380
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH114102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1189.45
Target 2: 1157.15
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.69
Daily control level: 1136.50
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH114102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 49.00
Target 2: 45.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.84
Daily control level: 50.55
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.10.2015
The countdown to the October 27-28 Federal Reserve Meeting has begun. However, for those in the FOMC who wanted to see an uptick in the United States economy, the data continues to be depressing.
Yesterday afternoon’s economic data from across the Atlantic missed both the market and analyst expectations by a wide mark with both the retail and PPI numbers reporting much lower than expected.
With respect consumer spending, the Core Retail Sales was expected to report a contraction to -0.1% but in reality the actual that was released was published as -0.3%. The Retail Sales number which also includes automobiles, the expectation that there would be an increase to 0.2%, however, the report published by the Census Bureau indicated that consumer spending had only increased by 0.1%.
The news data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics with regards to the PPI was much worse. The Core Producer Price Index which excludes, food, energy and trade was expected to be reported as a small increase to 0.1%, however, the release was reported as a very disappointing -0.3%. The PPI number was no better with the expected decline to -0.2% being obliterated by an actual of -0.5%.
The Federal Reserve will be hoping that it will have better news data this afternoon on both the jobs and inflation front with the weekly Unemployment Claims and both the CPI and Core CPI data.
The case for increasing interest rates this year, continues to wane and now seems impossible that we will see a hike in October and improbable that the FOMC moves in December. This view has been reinforced by two Federal Reserve Governors urging patience with respect to the timing of the first rate increase.
The Governors in question being Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo. Brainard on Tuesday even went as far to say that the risk of moving prematurely was greater than the risk delaying the first increase.
With the Federal Reserve unable to find a consensus on the timing of an interest rate increase it would surmise to say the markets views of pricing in of a rate increase in Q2 of 2016 would make good sense.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH115102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1565
Target 2: 1.1380
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 1.1355
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH115102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5585
Target 2: 1.5370
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.5200
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH115102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 119.55
Target 2: 118.10
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.74
Daily control level: 120.35
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH115102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9675
Target 2: 0.9405
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.9645
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH115102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3040
Target 2: 1.2830
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.2900
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH115102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7380
Target 2: 0.7210
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7380
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH115102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1200.00
Target 2: 1167.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.40
Daily control level: 1163.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH115102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 49.00
Target 2: 48.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.80
Daily control level: 48.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.10.2015
Wednesday’s rather disappointing US, Retail Sales, and PPI numbers had the effect of sending the US Dollar lower as traders and investors priced out the possibility of the Federal Reserve increasing its Fed Funds interest rate at the October or December meetings.
Although the possibility of an October decision to increase interest rates remains highly unlikely, yesterday’s inflation and jobs data increased the prospect of Janet Yellen and her colleagues at the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee moving on rates in December.
According to data released on Thursday, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, as expected, reached -0.2%. However, there was positive news with respect to Core CPI number which excludes Food and Energy, increased to 0.2%.
On the job front, the Department of Labor published some very positive news with Unemployment Claims dropping to 255,000. The prior number stood 262,000 and the market had expected an increase to 262,000.
The positive news on the inflation and job front had the effect of reversing the previous bearish sentiment for the US Dollar. Traders from just one afternoon of positive data realigned themselves to the possibility that a December rate hike had increased.
The American economy is, of course, monitored and discussed more than any other major developed market. The last two days market data only goes to highlight the importance of the finances of this nation.
Even though interest rates have remained at record lows for a very long time, growth in the US economy has failed to take off. A rise in interest rates is, of course, inevitable and many analysts and market participants are pushing for this to happen now so that the US economy can get over what has become a psychological barrier.
The United States, very much like the Japanese and European Union economies has changed over the past twenty or so years. Technological has not only transformed how we work but also changed what we produce. Demographics are also having a huge impact with populations becoming older combined with a falling unemployment rate, the need to have such rigid targets for inflation, growth, and employment now look redundant.
There does seem from the outside a degree of excessive resistance by the FOMC in increasing interest rates. Many have said that the Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen has become a hostage to the data and is unable to act. However, the responsibility in the hands of the FOMC is, however, enormous. Not only must the decision makers take the correct action but also more importantly, avoid taking the wrong action.
If interest rates are prematurely raised in December, the shock to the market and the real economy will be tangible if the FOMC then has to reverse its decision, as was the case of Sweden, Norway and Canada where a hawkish stance on interest rates had to be abandoned due to a deteriorating domestic economy.
The understandably cautious stance taken by the FOMC continues to point to an interest rate increase in the spring of 2016. That is unless wage inflation begins to increase excessively.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH116102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1480
Target 2: 1.1290
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.1355
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH116102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5560
Target 2: 1.5340
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5200
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH116102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 119.65
Target 2: 118.15
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.76
Daily control level: 120.35
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH116102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9580
Target 2: 0.9415
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 0.9645
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH116102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.2965
Target 2: 1.2825
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.2950
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH116102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7415
Target 2: 0.7235
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7365
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH116102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1198.00
Target 2: 1165.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.36
Daily control level: 1163.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH116102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 49.00
Target 2: 45.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.82
Daily control level: 45.75
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.10.2015
This morning’s news that Chinese growth data continues to decline has somewhat overshadowed the start of an official and high-profile visit by the Chinese President to the United Kingdom.
With growth rates exceeding 6%, most countries in the West would look with considerable envy at first glance what appears to be the very healthy growth numbers.
However, this morning’s announcement by the National Bureau of Statistics that Chinese quarterly GDP had dropped from 7.0% to 6.9% would be weighing on the mind of President Xi Jinping during his meetings with British Prime Minister David Cameron.
There was an expectation that that this morning’s Gross Domestic Product release would be lower than July’s release. However, the decline was less than the 6.8% that the market had expected. This had the effect of limiting the decline in Asia equity markets such as the Shanghai Composite, Hong King Hang Seng and Japanese Nikkei Index.
The drop off in growth has significance from an emotional standpoint in that the drop beneath 7.0% takes Chinses GDP to levels last seen at the beginning of 2009.
This follows a downgrading of 2014 from 7.4% to 7.3% which is the lowest level of GDP for 25 years. For 2015, the Chinese Governments growth target is in the region of 7%.
Although, in comparison to the rest of the world, growth numbers in the region of 7% are still very impressive, there was many who feared that the Chinese economy risked a hard landing.
That the decline was less than expected does lend itself to the view that the action taken by the Chinese Government to limit the impact of the recent slowdown will avert the risk of this hard landing taking place.
The Chinese Government, the Central Bank and Financial Regulators still have to address the big issues of ever increasing non-performing loans, industrial overcapacity and a lack of demand from the outside world for domestic produce.
Although this morning’s GDP number would have given both Chinese Government and the markets much encouragement there is still concern that the growth number could slip to 6.5%. If such a scenario was to play out the impact on jobs would be both measurable and painful.
The Chinese Government has already embarked on an aggressive program of stimulus. However, the benefit so far would seem to be one of delaying the inevitable much steeper slowdown.
The question many now are asking is what more can the Chinese authorities do in terms of stimulus and would further and more aggressive action bring the level of GDP back above 7%.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH119102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1445
Target 2: 1.1260
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 1.1395
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH119102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5545
Target 2: 1.5330
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.5410
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH119102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 120.10
Target 2: 118.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.75
Daily control level: 120.35
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH119102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9600
Target 2: 0.9345
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 0.9555
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH119102051.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3010
Target 2: 1.2795
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.2950
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH119102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7415
Target 2: 0.7235
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7365
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH119102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1192.80
Target 2: 1160.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.32
Daily control level: 1185.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH119102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 49.00
Target 2: 46.10
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.84
Daily control level: 45.75
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.10.2015
This week, there will be a plethora of Central Bankers commenting. However, with the ECB road show heading to Malta, the focus this week will be on this Thursday’s press conference.
The European Central Bank, President, Mr. Mario Draghi and his colleagues on the Governing Council will hold their scheduled policy meeting on October 21st to 22nd against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty over the timing of a the United States, Federal Funds increase.
There has over the past few months, been increasing speculation that the ECB will expand its current large stimulus program Eurozone economies continue to struggle. The problems facing Greece have for now been discreetly brushed under the carpet and a German industrial giant in the form of Volkswagen has now been hit by a major scandal which could damage the German economy.
Furthermore, with Governing Council member, Ewald Nowotny stating that CPI data is “clearly” below target, the prospect of a QE2 program would seemingly look more and more inevitable.
There has been chatter amongst analyst that Light Sweet Crude has put in a bottom and would soon be trading above its 200 period’s daily moving average. Crude, however, has failed to make any headway above its major daily averages and with the US50.00 per barrel area offering stiff resistance, the view that higher Oil prices in the medium term will bring inflation back on track is rather premature and unproven.
Much like their colleagues across the English Channel at the Bank of England and further afield at the United States Federal Reserve, the Central Bankers at the ECB are very much dependent on the data.
As the data has yet to confirm that Euroland has returned to sustainable growth, the prospect of the ECB extending the duration of the current QE program past September 2016 or increasing the size of the assets to be purchased becomes a possibility.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH120102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1415
Target 2: 1.1240
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 1.1380
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH120102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5565
Target 2: 1.5360
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.5410
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH120102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 120.15
Target 2: 118.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.70
Daily control level: 120.35
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH120102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9645
Target 2: 0.9485
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.9495
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH120102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3120
Target 2: 1.2910
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.2900
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH120102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7330
Target 2: 0.7160
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.7365
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH120102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1186.00
Target 2: 1155.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.66
Daily control level: 1178.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH120102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.50
Target 2: 45.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.85
Daily control level: 45.75
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.10.2015
The Canadian Liberal Party has been elected to power on an anti-austerity programme. With Greece having elected the leftist SYRIZA Party to power and with the British Labour Party also electing a traditional leftist leader in the shape of Jeremy Corbin, it would appear that there is a groundswell of opinion forming in many developed countries that reject the accepted mantra that austerity is the only medicine that can bring sustainable growth and jobs.
The real test for global populist left-leaning movements will happen later this year when the Spanish public vote in a general election that takes place on December 20. The fear within the corridors of European power that are located in Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin is that the charismatic leader of Podemos, Mr Pablo Iglesias could cause enough damage to the traditional Spanish political parties that a seismic shock that is centred in Madrid ripples across the whole of the European Union.
After ten years of rule by the Conservatives, the citizens of Canada decided that a change was needed. This change was made with the young and charismatic leader of the Liberal Party Mr Justin Trudeau sweeping to power with a 54% landslide victory.
Mr Trudeau who comes from a political dynasty is the son of the former Prime Minister has vowed to increase public spending and invest in infrastructure as part of a plan to boost demand and growth in what has been a flagging economy.
With respect to taxation, the Liberal Party manifesto has identified wealth inequality as an issue and plan to address this problem by increasing taxes on the wealthy and reducing them on the middle classes.
The scale of the victory gives the Liberal Party a strong mandate. Governments are not known to be good at spending public money. This new Canadian experiment that promises fiscal stimulus will be watched closely by other developed nations.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH121102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1435
Target 2: 1.1260
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 1.1300
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH121102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5540
Target 2: 1.5340
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.5410
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH121102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 120.15
Target 2: 118.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.70
Daily control level: 119.40
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH121102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9640
Target 2: 0.9480
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.9495
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH121102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3080
Target 2: 1.2875
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.2900
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH121102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7340
Target 2: 0.7175
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.7310
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH121102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1191.50
Target 2: 1160.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.05
Daily control level: 1167.15
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH121102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 47.70
Target 2: 44.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.76
Daily control level: 45.75
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.10.2015
The European Central Bank roadshow hits Valetta, Malta today. This latest ECB meeting and press conference will take place against a backdrop of increasing speculation that the President of the ECB, Mr. Mario will announce further stimulus measures.
Sluggish German manufacturing and export data has caused concern, however, this has been discounted by the German Economy Ministry that views these disappointing readings as being due to seasonal factors.
The main issue for the ECB, of course, is the outlook for Euro-Zone inflation. The recent dip of Euro-Area inflation to -0.1% has coincided with what seems to be an overly optimistic outlook expectation that inflation will reach 1.7% by Q4 in 2017.
The other main concern is what Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee of the Federal Reserve decide to do with respect to interest rate increases.
It would seem fairly obvious that the ECB would want to wait for the FOMC to either move first or at least offer further clarity on its future monetary policy. Only then will the ECB take further measures.
The fear being that an ECB decision to increase stimulus will not have any significant impact if this takes place prior to the Federal Reserve moving on rates.
The consensus for today’s press conference is that the ECB will not announce any changes to current policy. However, it would be likely that the downside risks will be emphasized in what should be a dovish press conference. This would be line with comments made by other members of the ECB board.
The ECB does have additional tools that it can implement and Mario Draghi has informed the markets that the Central Bank will do whatever it takes to bring back growth and inflation to the Euro-Area.
These measures could include extending the duration of the current programme or expanding the scope of asset purchases.
Although such move would be in line with the ECB mandate the German Bundesbank may offer some resistance to such a move as it would question why would more QE work?
If, as it is expected the ECB announces that no further measure will be taken today, it is clear that this is not the end of this story.
The ECB will leave the door ajar for further stimulus. It is to be expected that Mario Draghi and fellow board members will do their best to guide the market and talk down the value of the Euro.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH12210.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1415
Target 2: 1.1260
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080
Daily control level: 1.1300
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH12210.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5515
Target 2: 1.5315
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.5410
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH12210.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 120.50
Target 2: 119.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.60
Daily control level: 119.40
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH12210.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9665
Target 2: 0.9520
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076
Daily control level: 0.9525
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH12210.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3245
Target 2: 1.3025
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111
Daily control level: 1.2935
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH12210.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7295
Target 2: 0.7120
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.7240
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH12210.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1182.75
Target 2: 1152.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.49
Daily control level: 1180.75
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH12210.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 47.50
Target 2: 44.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.72
Daily control level: 47.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.10.2015
Yesterday afternoon, the ECB President, Mr Mario Draghi surprised the markets by the extremely dovish tone of the scheduled press conference that took place in Valetta, Malta.
As expected the ECB did not cut its key benchmark interest rate from the current 0.05% level. However, following on from comments made over the summer, that the ECB will do what it takes to get the Euro-Zones economy back on track, the announcement that the European Central Bank will now “re-examine” its Euro 1 trillion quantitative easing stimulus programme at the December meeting sent the Euro crashing against the US Dollar.
Draghi said during the press conference that “The degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at our December meeting.”
It would now appear that almost everything will be considered as a policy tool, that can introduce inflation and sustainable growth back into the Euro-Areas flagging economies.
By reading between the lines that ECB Governing Council must have some good insight from the United States Federal Reserve that it will not act on US interest rates before December. If this is the case and with the US Dollar continuing to depreciate in value, the ECB felt had to act now.
Yesterday’s comments can be seen as a passing shot across the bows of the market. The threat to expand European QE programme should see the markets now price this event into their forward outlook.
The reason why the ECB took this action now is due to the realisation that the current QE programme is not having the desired effect of boosting the Euro-Area. Although the current trend amongst the Euro-Zone economies is positive, the issue of soft inflation data continues to be a concern to Mario Draghi and his colleagues. Furthermore, the recent economic problems that are facing China and the Emerging Market has only added to the ECB’s worries as this could have an impact down the line on European economies.
The question many economist and analyst will of course ask is will an aggressive expansion of the ECB’s stimulus programme only squander more tax payers money?
The problem with QE is that it is not a one shot cure for an economy that is facing issues of chronic low inflation and stagnant growth. One only needs to look at older stimulus programmes that have been adopted by the United States and Japan. The Bank of Japan and the FOMC have continuously stimulated their economies by applying further QE.
The effect of adding further QE acts as a booster to the medicine that has already been administered. A failure to boost QE will see the positive effect of such a programme wear-off. In this context and with a degree of hindsight it was fairly obvious that the ECB would have to expand its programme.
This brings us to some more questions.
1. Are the major global economies now addicted to a diet of quantitative easing?
2. Furthermore, will we ever see the economies of the United States, Euro-Area and Japan ever move back to a situation which can be described as normal or is this the new normal?
Only time has the answer to these questions
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH12310.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1200
Target 2: 1.1015
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092
Daily control level: 1.1385
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH12310.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5495
Target 2: 1.5290
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.5505
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH12310.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.30
Target 2: 120.05
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.64
Daily control level: 119.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH12310.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9810
Target 2: 0.9650
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 0.9580
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH12310.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3195
Target 2: 1.2980
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 1.2935
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH12310.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7295
Target 2: 0.7120
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7180
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH12310.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1190.00
Target 2: 1161.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.46
Daily control level: 1162.35
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH12310.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 47.00
Target 2: 44.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.69
Daily control level: 46.25
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.10.2015
This morning at 10:00 London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate number.
This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.
The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.
Due to the size and breadth of this report the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.
The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.
Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.
The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.
The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight increase to 108.1, as compared to the previous number of 108.5.
A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.
The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic business outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.
As economic expansion is seen as being inflationary and economic contraction being deflationary the European Central Bank, (ECB) may step in an increase or decrease interest rates so as to ensure that the influential and dominant German economy does not grow or contract too quickly.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH126102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1100
Target 2: 1.0910
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 1.1140
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH126102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5410
Target 2: 1.5200
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.5420
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH126102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 122.15
Target 2: 120.75
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.70
Daily control level: 120.20
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH126102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9875
Target 2: 0.9715
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 0.9710
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH126102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3230
Target 2: 1.3055
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112
Daily control level: 1.3040
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH126102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7295
Target 2: 0.7100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 0.7180
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH126102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1177.00
Target 2: 1148.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.65
Daily control level: 1158.75
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH126102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 46.00
Target 2: 44.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.56
Daily control level: 45.90
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.10.2015
Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting will not be accompanied by a press conference. However, we will get from the FOMC a monetary statement.
The lack of a press conference should discount the possibility of the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Mrs. Janet Yellen announcing a rise in interest rates.
Although a December rate move is not priced in by the markets, it would be expected that the Federal Reserve would like to keep its options open. The FOMC’s need for flexibility could, therefore, see the committee give the latest monetary policy statement a somewhat hawkish slant.
The outcome of Wednesday’s meeting could, therefore, see the Federal Reserve announce a US Dollar supportive statement.
Following the European Central Banks extremely dovish statement we have seen the Euro put a ceiling at its recent highs. Therefore, a statement by the FOMC that is seen by the markets as hawkish could potentially see the US Dollar experience a broad rally.
The Federal Reserve is not the only Central Bank that is due to meet during this week. The Bank of Japan will add to the debate when it meets on October 30. The Bank of Japan could decide to increase its QE programme, however, there is also a possibility that the Japanese Government decides to adjust its fiscal policy.
With so much news out during this coming week, combined with the expectation that the Fed will attempt to push the hawkish line in its monetary statement, there is potential for USDJPY to break above an area of resistance around the 121 level which ties in with a potential break above the 200 period daily moving average.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH12710.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1200
Target 2: 1.0950
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092
Daily control level: 1.1000
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH12710.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5450
Target 2: 1.5250
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.5380
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH12710.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.70
Target 2: 120.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.70
Daily control level: 121.10
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH12710.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9900
Target 2: 0.9745
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 0.9750
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH12710.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3270
Target 2: 1.3050
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.3120
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH12710.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7325
Target 2: 0.7160
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 0.7200
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH12710.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1177.00
Target 2: 1148.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.30
Daily control level: 1158.75
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH12710.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 45.50
Target 2: 42.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 45.62
Daily control level: 45.20
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.10.2015
According to latest estimates, there is only a 4% chance that the United States Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this evening.
The market also sees a low likelihood that an increase in the Federal Funds rate will happen in December with this scenario priced into expectations by 25%.
The chances of a March hike increases notably with the market pricing in this expectation by 50%.
With the market making its own mind on the timing of the first interest-rate increase and if we discount anything happening today, it is, therefore, important to take a close look at the language of the report. Especially as we have been receiving conflicting messages from the FOMC with some Governors wanting to see a rate increase to happen this year and others want it to happen in 2016.
The Federal Reserve has what is known as a dual-mandate which is to look after interest rates and employment.
However over recent times the FOMC has begun to take into account issues that are external to the US economy. This can now be considered as the third mandate.
The question vexing many market analysts and no doubt the decision makers on the FOMC is should the Federal Reserve just stick to its dual mandates or is it right to look at the external factors?
In this modern, interconnected global economy, the FOMC has no choice but to take into external factors when it considers its monetary policy.
Furthermore, it is fairly obvious that all central banks are now actively briefing one another and where possible planning together so as to solve the problems facing the global economy.
The FOMC is obviously treading very carefully as it plans its next move with China, the Emerging Markets and Europe being of high consideration.
China for the past two decades has seen its economy expand at a phenomenal pace. However during 2015 the Chinese economy has grown at its slowest pace in 25 years.
The Chinese Government and Central Bank have taken steps to cushion the country’s economy from the first major contraction since the open door policy was brought into being.
The steps taken include a devaluation of this country’s currency and a cut in the rate of interest by 25 bp.
Europe is also high in the FOMC’s thinking. The European Central Bank President Mr. Mario Draghi has said that the ECB’s QE programme could be extended.
We now have a scenario of China / EU easing happening at a time when US rates will increase. The fallout from this is a strengthening US Dollar and its negatives implication for US competitiveness on the global markets.
Back to the dual mandate, the US economy and the employment outlook. The jobless numbers calculated on a three-month average have been good but not impressive.
There are two more payroll numbers to be released before the meeting in December together with inflation and manufacturing data.
The Federal Reserve, therefore, does have some time to look at the incoming data. The two most recent job numbers were below expectation. However, the FOMC could be tempted to act if it sees the next two NFP releases reach levels above 200,000.
Some would say that the FOMC has been overly cautious as it waits for all the boxes to be ticked before it moves ahead and tightens its monetary stance by increasing interest rates.
The problem for Chairwoman Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee is that whatever they do would is bound to displease someone.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH128102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1130
Target 2: 1.0950
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 1.1080
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH128102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5400
Target 2: 1.5205
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.5380
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH128102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.00
Target 2: 119.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.74
Daily control level: 121.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH1281020151.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9940
Target 2: 0.9785
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077
Daily control level: 0.9800
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH128102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3375
Target 2: 1.3155
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.3120
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH128102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7280
Target 2: 0.7115
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7255
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH128102015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1180.00
Target 2: 1152.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.08
Daily control level: 1160.60
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH1281020151.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 45.00
Target 2: 42.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44
Daily control level: 45.20
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.10.2015
The zero interest rate will last for at least month and a half, with no changes in the current rate, the Federal Reserve statement asserted last night. In their view, economic conditions have not altered significantly leaving the possibility for the hawkish move as soon as this December’s meeting.
As the investors had expected the Federal Reserve to remain dormant regarding the interest rate well until next year, the reference to the next meeting came as a surprise, sending the EURUSD pair to the new lows sharply.
The pair reached below 1.0900 mark within the first hour of the statement release, being the EURUSD two and a half month low. The US Dollar strengthened further, with the index yesterday’s high at 97.875, gaining more than 270 pips just within a week.
The line that was saying the global economic and financial developments “may restrain economic activities somewhat” was this time removed from the statement. It was also added that employment conditions are recovering at a satisfactory pace with “labour market indicators, on balance, show that underutilization of labour resources has diminished since early this year”.
Nevertheless, as the economy expanding at the “moderate pace”, there are still no improvements in the inflation rate outlook, with the inflation continue to run well below the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve. It was commented however that the indicator underperformance is due to the low energy prices and the prices of non-energy imports.
The votes came 9 to 1 with Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey M. Lacker expressed his view in favour of the interest rate hike once again.
The investors were expecting the next interest rate hike not earlier than the March 2016, with most views have now shifted towards the late January.
“The Fed statement was the first since 1999 in which policymakers pointed to a possible rate increase at the next meeting”, Michael Feroli, a previously economist at the US Central Bank, now at JPMorgan, commented to Reuters.
The Federal Reserve will now have some time to look at several important data before the next meeting on 15-16 December. Even though the two recent NFP releases were below expectations, FOMC could be tempted to act these numbers will improve before the middle of December.
The Bank will also closely observe the economic conditions outside the United States. The weakened markets such as China and Japan seeing the capital outflows to the more profitable venues, pushing the US dollar higher.
The likely additional quantitative easing measures in Europe, announced last week, are having similar consequences to the world’s major reserve currency. Stronger Dollar, therefore, could hurt the domestic exporters, and could make it even harder to reach the desired inflation target. It also sets additional obstacles for the jobs market to improve.
That might explain why the Fed might prefer to test waters and leave the door open, without making any solid commitments ate the moment.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1020
Target 2: 1.0830
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 1.1080
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5370
Target 2: 1.5167
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.5380
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.90
Target 2: 120.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.812
Daily control level: 121.25
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0060
Target 2: 0.9820
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 0.9800
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3320
Target 2: 1.3070
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127
Daily control level: 1.3275
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7200
Target 2: 0.7000
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.7300
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1172.00
Target 2: 1140.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.95
Daily control level: 1180.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 48.00
Target 2: 45.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.57
Daily control level: 46.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.11.2015
The start of a busy week of financial data began on Sunday with news out from China.
The Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) published data that indicated that the manufacturing sector is still declining.
According to the latest release, the Manufacturing PMI for October stood at 49.8. The market had expected a slight increase to the 50.0 level.
As PMI readings that are higher than 50.0 indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector, the release of yesterday’s number which was below the 50.0 mark does reinforce the current negative view analysts have of the Chinese economy.
However, that yesterday’s release was in line with data for September does give those looking for signs of stabilization that a floor has been put under what has been a savage contraction.
This view has gained some ground this morning with the independent Caixin Manufacturing PMI that is released by Markit indicated that there was a slight uptick.
The actual number for this morning Caixin Manufacturing PMI being 48.3 against a forecast of 47.7 and prior 47.2.
The mixed data with respect to the Chinese Manufacturing will most probably force the Chinese authorities to take further measures that will help create a bottom and stabilizes this country’s economy.
In other news, PMI surveys dominate today’s releases. Japan this morning releases its monthly Final Manufacturing PMI. The latest release was reported as 52.4 beat the consensus forecast of 52.1 but was slightly below Septembers reading of 52.5.
Across to Europe, Spanish Manufacturing PMI disappointed with the actual of 51.3 missing the 51.9 forecast and 51.7 prior release.
However, there was better news from Switzerland which saw an expansion in the manufacturing sector with the latest report reported as 50.7. The October number was a strong beat on the 50.2 actual and 49.5 September reading.
As I write, PMI data will be released shortly for Italy, Germany, France and the Euro-Area and later today, we have PMI data from the UK and the USA.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH102112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1134
Target 2: 1.0932
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.1095
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH102112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5543
Target 2: 1.5347
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.5240
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH102112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.25
Target 2: 119.53
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.86
Daily control level: 120.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH102112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9931
Target 2: 0.9767
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 0.9815
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH102112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3185
Target 2: 1.2960
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115
Daily control level: 1.3190
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH102112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7190
Target 2: 0.7036
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0078
Daily control level: 0.7079
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH102112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1156.00
Target 2: 1127.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70
Daily control level: 1150.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH102112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.00
Target 2: 45.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.41
Daily control level: 45.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.11.2015
Since the lows of August, the Exxon Mobil Corporation has seen its stock value rally off the lows it touched back in the summer.
In August, Exxon Mobil traded down to the US$ 66.50 area, however, this morning after what was a strong Monday trading, has seen this company’s stock value move above US$ 85.00.
The Exxon Mobil Corporation is public traded on the New York Stock Exchange as is a key component of the Dow 30.
Being the fifth largest company in terms of revenue and the third largest company in terms of market capitalization, the Exxon Mobil Corporation is seen as an important bellwether on the health of the United States equity market, the petrol chemicals sector and the Crude Oil market.
Following Friday’s better than expected third quarter earnings release the value of Exxon Mobil’s share price has experienced a large increase.
Furthermore, the rally that Exxon Mobil has experienced since August has seen the price action from a technical aspect put in place certain key indications which could imply that a significant low has created for the price of this stock.
As Exxon Mobil is such a dominant player in the petroleum sector, a reversal of sentiment from bearish to bullish could also indicate that the downtrend in the value of both WTI and Brent may be coming to an end.
The price action during the month of October has been significant in that Exxon Mobil has seen its share price accelerate higher as if it was a hot knife through butter as it slashed through is 50 and 100-period simple moving averages.
Of greater significance as that the price action has now broken through the key 200 periods daily moving average. As the 200-period moving average is used as an indicator by longer term investors to ascertain if an instrument is in bull or bear territory the breach of this average during yesterday’s trading would have been noted with interest.
Of further significance was that the share price of Exxon mobile was able to breach and close above the downtrend line that has defined the bearish trend that began back in July of 2014.
Finally, the share price of Exxon Mobil has been able to break above all key Fibonacci levels with little sign of resistance. A continuation of the move higher could see the May 5 high of US$ 90.07 being tested.
A breach of the US$90.07 level is important as it would turn the very long term weekly cycle from a technical perspective from down to up.
If we switch to a chart of OILUSD, the trend continues to point in a downward direction. However, the repeated breaches of the downtrend line could potentially indicate that base is being formed.
However, confirmation is required and this will be given if OILUSD can trade above its 200 periods daily SMA and the prior swing high of October 8 at the US$ 51.30 level.
We also have a similar scenario for Brent. In this case, there does seem to be a concerted effort to stay above the now broken downtrend line.
To end, the price action for Exxon Mobil is giving us clues on the future direction of price action for both WTI and Brent. However, we do need to see some follow-through in terms of price action confirmation before we can say with any certainty that a solid floor has been put in place
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH103112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1105
Target 2: 1.0920
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 1.1075
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH103112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5495
Target 2: 1.5325
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 1.5240
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH103112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.55
Target 2: 119.95
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.81
Daily control level: 120.25
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH103112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9935
Target 2: 0.9780
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079
Daily control level: 0.9890
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH103112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3200
Target 2: 1.2985
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.3115
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH103112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7215
Target 2: 0.7065
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077
Daily control level: 0.7100
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH103112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1146.00
Target 2: 1120.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.31
Daily control level: 1150.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH103112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.00
Target 2: 45.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.42
Daily control level: 45.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.11.2015
Yesterday in Frankfurt during an event that celebrated the European Cultural Day, the European Central Bank President, Mr. Mario Draghi gave the clearest indication yet that he and his colleagues on the Governing Council could launch an expanded stimulus programme as early as next month.
ECB President Draghi told reporters “Even though domestic demand remains resilient, concerns over growth prospects in emerging markets and other external factors are creating downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation.”
Draghi went on to add “In this context, the degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at the Governing Council’s December meeting.”
“The Governing Council is willing and able to act by using all the instruments available within its mandate if warranted in order to maintain an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation.”
His comments at what was meant to be a fairly low-key event is a clear sign that the European Central Bank is going to act in December.
The question of timing is of course as always key. As had happened in September, the next key meeting for the ECB will take place before the United States Federal Reserve announces their next move.
With the possibility of the FOMC deciding in increased rates in December, is it really necessary for the ECB to act so soon?
If the Fed hikes, this will be a stimulus in itself and have a greater effect than the ECB expanding its own QE programme.
However, Mario Draghi does not have the luxury that allows him to second guess the outcome of the FOMC meeting. The ECB may, therefore, move anyway and increase stimulus independently of any FOMC decision.
The ECB indicated that they have many options to explore and implement.
These include:
A cut in the deposit rate.
A faster pace of asset purchases.
Expand what can be purchased.
All these measures will, of course, have the effect of weakening the euro which will help support growth by expanding exports. Furthermore, the cheaper Euro will also act as a tool that increases inflation through imports.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH104112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1045
Target 2: 1.0865
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 1.0500
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH104112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5500
Target 2: 1.5335
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 1.5445
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH104112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.80
Target 2: 120.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.79
Daily control level: 120.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH104112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9950
Target 2: 0.9850
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079
Daily control level: 0.9835
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH104112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3170
Target 2: 1.2950
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111
Daily control level: 1.3165
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH10411215.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7255
Target 2: 0.7115
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073
Daily control level: 0.7110
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH104112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1131.00
Target 2: 1103.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.78
Daily control level: 1138.55
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH104112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 49.75
Target 2: 46.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47
Daily control level: 46.65
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.11.2015
During yesterday’s afternoon testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington D.C, the Federal Reserve chairwoman laid out the case for an increase in the Federal Funds rate taking place on December 15-16.
In an interesting debate, Mr. Brad Sherman who is affiliated to the Democratic Party and a member of the United States House of Representatives for the state of California championed the need for delaying a rate increase until the Spring of 2016.
However, the line Mr. Sherman took was a somewhat unorthodox line as he called on the guidance of a higher authority in the form of God.
Sherman said. “God’s plan is that things rise in the spring, and so if you want to be good with the Almighty, you might want to delay until May.”
Yellen’s, however, ignored for calls of divine intervention by saying. “What the committee has been expecting is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further improvements in the labour market and to return inflation to our 2% percent target over the medium term. If the incoming information supports that expectation then our statement indicates that December would be a live possibility”.
Although Mr. Sherman’s comments might seem as an interesting sideshow to the real debate that is now taking place over the timing of the first interest-rate increase, the comments expressed by this politician does in some way highlight the divisions in opinion that is currently gripping the financial markets and to some extent the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee.
Janet Yellen is, of course, trying to prepare the ground for a rate increase. In itself, a more hawkish tone that was adopted yesterday will cushion the blow when rates do eventually increase.
The market is currently pricing a 50 / 50 coin toss chance that the FOMC will increase rates in December. However, we do have a lot a data to come before the committee members have to make their decision.
If we see an improvement in data then the possibility of a rate increase will be enhanced. We will get out first clues tomorrow afternoon when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the latest job numbers with the Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings as always being of paramount importance.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH105112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0960
Target 2: 1.0770
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH105112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5470
Target 2: 1.5250
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 1.5445
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH105112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 122.30
Target 2: 120.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.76
Daily control level: 120.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH105112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.000
Target 2: 0.9850
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080
Daily control level: 0.9800
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH105112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3265
Target 2: 1.3030
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116
Daily control level: 1.3050
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH105112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7215
Target 2: 0.7100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072
Daily control level: 0.7110
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH105112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1121.00
Target 2: 1093.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.15
Daily control level: 1138.55
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH105112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 48.65
Target 2: 45.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.53
Daily control level: 48.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.11.2015
Yesterday lunch time the Bank of England announced that they would keep their Official Bank Rate on hold at 0.50%.
The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee in favour of not moving to increase interest rates from the current levels was in line with expectations.
The official voting for the Bank Rate of 1-0-8 was also in line with expectations. The lone dissenter on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee was once again Ian McCafferty.
Mr. McCafferty argued in favour of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points from 0.50% that they have stood at since March 2009 to 0.75%.
However, what did surprise the markets, was both the Bank of England Inflation Report and the subsequent press conference which conveyed a message that was extremely doveish.
The Bank of England released some forecasts and revisions which were more or less in line with previous releases.
The Bank of England, however, did emphasize downside risk to inflation and assumed an interest rate of only 0.8% in early 2017. This is due to concerns surrounding global growth.
This is in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve which removed external country factors which have been identified in China, the Emerging Markets and closer to home in the Euro-Area.
This news sent traders long of the British Pound looking for cover as Cable crashed and EURGBP rallied.
Until recently, many commentators argued for and some expected the Bank of England to move on interest rates before Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the FOMC took action of their own.
However, the doveish surprise that was delivered yesterday has seemingly ended this scenario. With the Federal Reserve poised to increase its own Fed Funds interest rate, the divergence between the British and United States interest rate forward forecasts has become very apparent.
This divergence between the United States and United Kingdom interest rate expectations if confirmed by a December lift off by the FOMC has the potential to drive down Cable to levels below 1.5000.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0975
Target 2: 1.0790
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH106112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5300
Target 2: 1.5100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.5400
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH106112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 122.50
Target 2: 121.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.78
Daily control level: 120.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH106112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0000
Target 2: 0.9865
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080
Daily control level: 0.9880
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH106112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3275
Target 2: 1.3060
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 1.3140
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH106112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7215
Target 2: 0.7070
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072
Daily control level: 0.7125
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH106112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1118.00
Target 2: 1090.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.26
Daily control level: 1111.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH106112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 47.60
Target 2: 44.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.51
Daily control level: 47.20
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.11.2015
Friday’s stunning United States Jobs Report saw both the Average Earning and Non-Farm Payrolls numbers catch many traders. This latest news has greatly increased the odds of the US Federal Reserve moving on rates at this coming December meeting.
Unless the December Jobs Report turns out to be a complete disaster, many market participants now expect that the FOMC Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, and her colleagues will increase the Fed Funds rate by 25 bp.
The certainty that such an event will happen has highlighted the growing divergence between the Federal Reserve and its counterpart across the globe which are either increasing stimulus or being extremely reticence in indicating when rates will increase.
The contrast is so obvious across the Atlantic in London. Mark Carney, the Bank of England Governor only last week was very clear in his views that the UK was somewhat far away from moving on interest rates.
Not so long ago, there was much discussion on the Bank of England moving on rates before the US Federal Reserve. However, it is now very obvious that the Bank of England will take a patient line and allow the US to move ahead on rates before any move on tightening is made.
Last week’s events reinforce the view that the US greenback, despite the huge debt burden of the Federal Government will continue to be the world’s reserve currency of choice and that the US Federal Reserve is the leading central bank.
Time will tell if another currency can claim the US Dollar’s Crowne, but it would appear that this possibility is many economic cycles away.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH109112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0835
Target 2: 1.0620
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.0900
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH109112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5160
Target 2: 1.4940
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.5400
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH109112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.10
Target 2: 122.45
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.86
Daily control level: 120.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH109112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0130
Target 2: 0.9965
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.9880
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH109112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3415
Target 2: 1.3190
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114
Daily control level: 1.3140
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH091112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7200
Target 2: 0.6950
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077
Daily control level: 0.7170
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH109112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1104.00
Target 2: 1074.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.05
Daily control level: 1111.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH109112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 46.60
Target 2: 43.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54
Daily control level: 46.35
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.11.2015
The Organisation for Co-operation and Development in its latest update for Global GDP has cut its forecast from 3.0% to 2.9%.
The OECD has also raised fears that the slowdown in growth is now pushing the international economy close to levels which would signal a global recession.
China was highlighted as a main reason behind the drop off in GDP as it sighted that reduction in demand for imported commodities was affecting neighbouring Asian nations.
However, the OECD sounded more optimistic for 2016 and 2017 as it predicted a pickup in growth.
The OECD identified that stimulus measures were taken by China and other countries as the main reason why it predicted that there would be a bounce next year.
The OECD decided to add its say on the debate with respect to United States interest rates and called upon the Federal Reserve to go ahead with its expected increase in the Fed Funds rate this coming December.
A move to increase the US benchmark interest rate by 25 bp would be the first step in nominalizing the interest rate environment.
A December move by the FOMC would come at a time when there are real signs that the United States economic recovery is taking off.
These signs of positive growth were highlighted last Friday when the US Department of Labor Statistics published extremely strong Jobs Report with both the Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings releases beating estimates by a wide margin.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH110112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0850
Target 2: 1.0640
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.0900
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH110112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5220
Target 2: 1.5005
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.5400
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH110112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.00
Target 2: 122.25
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.88
Daily control level: 120.60
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH110112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0150
Target 2: 0.9950
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 0.9880
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH110112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3390
Target 2: 1.3180
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.3140
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH110112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7115
Target 2: 0.6970
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074
Daily control level: 0.7170
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH1101120151.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1106.00
Target 2: 1077.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.28
Daily control level: 1111.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH110112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 46.00
Target 2: 43.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54
Daily control level: 45.95
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.11.2015
China has announced that it wants to enhance the international profile of its currency the Yuan. It plans to do this by upgrading the status of its currency by having the Chinese Yuan included into the basket of currencies that make up the International Monetary Fund, Foreign Exchange Reserve Assets.
The IMF Reserve Assets, also known as the Special Drawing Rights was created in 1969 and initially included the US Dollar, British Pound, French Franc, German Deutschmark and Japanese Yen. However with the launch of the single European currency, both the German and French participations were replaced by the Euro.
The SDR is not a currency, however, it is an important tool used by the IMF so as to help maintain global macroeconomic stability. The SDR can be used for instance during times when liquidity and credit in the market dry up such as the case of the 2008 crisis.
Apart from the obvious kudos for China that comes with becoming a component part of the IMF’s, SDR basket, there is also another factor why the second largest global economy would like to be a member of this very exclusive club.
China for some time has strived to reform its economy and evolve it from being the factory of the planet to become a modern global economy with a lower but a more sustainable growth model.
It is, therefore, a fairly obvious requirement that one of the world’s most important economies becomes a member of this foreign exchange based stability mechanism.
As the IMF carries out a review every five years and with the next review due to take place, China sees it vital to its interest that it is currency joins the SDR basket.
Although such a move would be very much symbolic due to the restrictive nature of the current Chinses financial system, it will be however a step towards normalizing China’s economy and bring it in line with the other developed nations.
There are risks if other members, most notably the United States blocks Chinese entry into the IMF SDR programme. Such a move could antagonise the Chinese political establishment who will see this as an embarrassing slap in the face.
A rejection by the IMF could, therefore, see the Chinese Government decide to go it alone and chart their own course with other partners such as Russia and Brazil.
If, however, the Yuan is accepted into the SDR basket, the Chinese Government will have to show concrete willingness to allow the Yuan to move freely and in line with market forces
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH111112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0820
Target 2: 1.0630
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.0790
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH111112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5220
Target 2: 1.5015
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.5090
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH111112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.95
Target 2: 122.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84
Daily control level: 123.43
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH111112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0130
Target 2: 0.9985
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077
Daily control level: 1.0018
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH111112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3375
Target 2: 1.3170
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.3295
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH111112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7100
Target 2: 0.6950
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076
Daily control level: 0.7014
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH111112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1104.00
Target 2: 1075.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.54
Daily control level: 1096.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH111112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 46.00
Target 2: 43.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54
Daily control level: 45.95
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.11.2015
Overnight news from Australia propelled the Aussie Dollar higher. The 90 pip rise in AUDUSD was due to a set of very strong employment numbers.
The strength of the incoming data has resulted in the Australian Dollar reaching the upper level of today’s expected true range at the 0.7135 level.
This price level coincides with strong overhead resistance that is formed by a prior, multi-decade broken uptrend line.
With the price action consolidating between strong overhead resistance and the 0.7135 level, it could be expected that AUDUSD trends down to sideways in a corrective fashion.
This morning’s news release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics included the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate numbers.
The Employment Change release measures the change in the numbers those employed during the previous month.
The prior release was negative -0.8K and the market expected to see a slight improvement to 14.8K. However, the actual release smashed estimates by posting a hefty 58.6K.
The Unemployment Rate continued to fall and now stands below the 6% level. The market had expected to see a release of 6.2% which would have meant it was in line with the prior months data. However, the actual number beat predictions and was reported as 5.9%.
The creation of employment is an extremely important leading indicator as the salaries are a driver for consumer spending.
As consumer spending is by far the largest component of all economic activity, signs that a positive trend exists in labour creation can be used as a barometer that measures the health of the economy.
What happens in Australia also has wider implications for the global economy. The Australian economy is tied closely to the fortunes of China. This is due to the high volume of exports, especially of commodities that Australia sends to China.
Therefore, a pick up in the Australian economy could be used as a leading indicator to what happens in the world’s second-largest economy.
Furthermore, with both the United States Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney identifying external risks as a reason to hold back on interest rate increases, the news that one of the world’s largest commodity exporting nations is experiencing improving economic conditions will not go unnoticed.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH112112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0830
Target 2: 1.0650
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092
Daily control level: 1.0704
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH112112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5300
Target 2: 1.5100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.5090
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH1121112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.60
Target 2: 122.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.77
Daily control level: 123.43
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH112112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0115
Target 2: 0.9970
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073
Daily control level: 1.0018
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH112112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3350
Target 2: 1.3165
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.3295
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH112112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7135
Target 2: 0.6985
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076
Daily control level: 0.7014
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH112112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1099.00
Target 2: 1072.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.67
Daily control level: 1096.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH112112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 46.50
Target 2: 42.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55
Daily control level: 45.25
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.11.2015
This morning, the two heavyweights of the Euro-Area, Germany and France had economic growth news published.
Destatis and INSEE announced preliminary GDP numbers for the third quarter for Germany and France respectively.
German GDP declined in Q3 after having experienced a moderate bounce in Q2. The published data of 0.3% was in line with market expectations but less than the 0.4% of Q2.
In contrast, the French GDP number was much more positive with the actual of 0.3% being line with market expectations and above Q2’s prior release of 0.0%. It was however not a totally positive picture with the current level of French quarterly GDP being half of the high watermark level of 0.6% for May of this year.
The latest GDP numbers giving the European Central Bank President, Mr Mario Draghi little in the way of comfort. It would now appear that European policymakers are inching ever closer to the inevitable of increasing stimulus with the aim to boost the Euro-Zones sluggish economic recovery.
Draghi reiterated previous statements on Thursday when he saying the ECB was ready to review the current stimulus programme in December.
The ECB President’s very dovish stance was highlighted when he said that “The option of doing nothing would go against price stability.”
Draghi went further in saying that “From today’s perspective, this suggests that a sustained normalisation of inflation could take longer than we anticipated in March when we first appraised the overall impact of our measures. We have always said that our purchases would run beyond end-September 2016 in case we do not see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Other instruments could also be activated to strengthen the impact of the purchase programme if necessary.”
Draghi’s comments initially sent the Euro lower, however buyers did come into the market around the 1.0700 area.
The move off the lows has resulted in the price action trading higher as it forms a series of higher lows and higher highs.
However, with the obvious divergence in US Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policy, it would not be difficult to imagine that any rally in the Euro could be short lived.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH113112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0910
Target 2: 1.07150
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.0690
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH113112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5330
Target 2: 1.5125
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.5170
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH113112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.30
Target 2: 121.85
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.75
Daily control level: 123.06
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH113112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0050
Target 2: 0.9925
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074
Daily control level: 1.0083
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH113112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3385
Target 2: 1.3190
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.3222
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH113112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7195
Target 2: 0.7055
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073
Daily control level: 0.7085
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH113112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1098.00
Target 2: 1069.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.37
Daily control level: 1094.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH113112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 44.00
Target 2: 41.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.57
Daily control level: 45.25
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.11.2015
Overnight, the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government published Preliminary Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers.
Unfortunately, the data that was presented for the third biggest global economy was extremely disappointing.
The markets had expected a GDP number of -0.1%, however, the actual release when it was announced stood at -0.2%.
Last night’s negative GDP data is the second quarter in succession that the Japanese economy has contracted. From a technical standpoint, the Japanese economy has now entered into a recession.
The sluggish GDP data will now put further pressure on the Shinzo Abe administration and the Bank of Japan to continue with a programme of economic stimulus and structural corrections.
The Japanese Government has however tried to put a positive spin on the latest GDP Data with Akira Amari, who is the Economics Minister saying “While there are risks such as overseas developments, we expect the economy to head toward a moderate recovery thanks to the effect of various (stimulus) steps taken so far.”
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH116112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0840
Target 2: 1.0635
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.0830
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH116112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5325
Target 2: 1.5125
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.5186
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH116112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5325
Target 2: 1.5125
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.5186
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH116112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0135
Target 2: 0.9985
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077
Daily control level: 0.99
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH116112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3395
Target 2: 1.3205
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.3265
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH116112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7185
Target 2: 0.7050
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071
Daily control level: 0.7085
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH116112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1104.00
Target 2: 1074.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.12
Daily control level: 1079.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH116112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 43.50
Target 2: 40.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.63
Daily control level: 43.40
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.11.2015.
This morning at 10:00 a.m. London time, German Center for the European Economic research (ZEW) will release the German Economic Sentiment data.
Around 350 financial analysts are participating in the survey, which shows the balance between the experts who have an optimistic opinion about the Germany’ economic developments within the next six months and these who are not.
Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most influential within the European Union, which makes it very influential to the common European currency.
Since the ZEW index is an important indicator which provides with the outlook of the country’s economic health, it typically causes heightened volatility in the EUR currency pairs.
The data above zero will generally indicate optimism and the opposite so below zero.
The German sentiment trend is declining since March 2015 when data reached this year’s high of 54.8. The statistics usually quite volatile and not following a smooth trend.
The forecast for today’s release is expected to read 6.7 which will be a slight improvement on the prior months 1.9 reading.
A higher reading in today’s number would be significant as it would be the first time in over six months that the ZEW would have broken its downtrend.
In case the release will be lower than expected, this will likely to put additional pressure to the recently weak EURUSD pair.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH117112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0775
Target 2: 1.0595
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 1.0830
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH117112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5295
Target 2: 1.5100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.5265
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH117112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 123.80
Target 2: 122.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71
Daily control level: 122.20
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH117112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0160
Target 2: 1.0025
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070
Daily control level: 0.9996
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH117112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3415
Target 2: 1.3240
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 1.3285
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH117112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7155
Target 2: 0.7030
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0066
Daily control level: 0.7110
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH117112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1097.00
Target 2: 1070.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.70
Daily control level: 1098.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH117112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 44.00
Target 2: 41.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55
Daily control level: 43.40
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.11.2015
Not many would have thought that when the benchmark Federal Funds target interest rate dropped under 0.25% in 2008 that it would stay at this level for some 7 years.
However, yesterday’s much-anticipated release of the FOMC minutes for October the markets received the clearest indication that the Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Reserve committee are now finally ready to increase interest rates.
According to the Minutes of the October meeting, the Federal Reserve said that the economic outlook would have improved sufficiently, or in their words “be met” by the December meeting for an agreement to be reached to increase interest rates.
In a further hawkish message, the FOMC minutes noted, “The US financial system appeared to have weathered the turbulence in global financial markets without any sign of systemic stress.”
The market had expected that the Federal Reserve could have increased interest rates at the September gathering, however, concerns over the contraction of the Chinese and Emerging Market economies combined with patchy economic data led to the committee members taking a cautious approach.
Since October, there has been very strong news with respect to US employment with the last jobs report posting impressive Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Earnings numbers.
The October meeting took place before the positive US employment numbers were announced. However, barring a disastrous data being announced in December and with the China story dropping from the focus of attention it would appear that the Federal Reserve has no reasons why it should not raise interest rates next month.
Furthermore, one outcome of the tragic events that took place in France recently is the rapprochement in relations between the United States and her allies with Russia. A more stable geopolitical picture would do much to reduce risk and calm the nerves of investors and would be one less issue for the FOMC to worry about.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH119112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0750
Target 2: 1.0570
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092
Daily control level: 1.0615
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH119112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5330
Target 2: 1.5140
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.5185
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH119112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.25
Target 2: 122.95
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.66
Daily control level: 123.75
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH119112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0270
Target 2: 1.0120
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075
Daily control level: 1.0125
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH119112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3355
Target 2: 1.3250
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 1.3370
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH119112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7175
Target 2: 0.7040
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0069
Daily control level: 0.7070
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH1191120151.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1086.00
Target 2: 1054.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.92
Daily control level: 1097.95
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH119112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 43.70
Target 2: 40.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54
Daily control level: 42.70
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.11.2015
The European series of Flash Manufacturing PMI is taking the centre of traders’ attention this morning. French and German Flash PMI data are projected to increase to 50.7 and 52.2 correspondingly, with only general European PMI awaited to remain without changes at 52.3.
This set of PMI is released by Markit financial Information and typically comes out three weeks after a month ends after a month ends and may add volatility to the Euro pairs.
The European Manufacturing PMI set of data is a leading indicator of economic health in the manufacturing sector as purchasing managers possess good inside of the current economic conditions and adapt to them rapidly.
Around 500 purchasing managers from each zone are questioned to rate the current business conditions regarding an amount of new orders, inventories and production levels and also to rate employment sphere and supplier deliveries.
A number above 50 indicates that the industry is expanding, whereas 50 will states that there were no changes, with the below that showing a contraction.
The releases coming above the projections will usually have a positive effect on the common European currency with the vice versa applicable as well.
EURUSD has opened sharply lower this morning, as the US dollar continue to gain strength and reaching above 100 level during this morning, the level last seen seven month ago.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2311EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0734
Target 2: 1.0544
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.0825
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2311GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5271
Target 2: 1.5075
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.5335
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2311USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.47
Target 2: 122.13
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.668
Daily control level: 123.75
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2311USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.0270
Target 2: 1.0118
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076
Daily control level: 1.000
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2311USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: UP
Target 1: 1.3415
Target 2: 1.3251
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 1.3245
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2311AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7301
Target 2: 0.7159
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071
Daily control level: 0.7070
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2311GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1090.25
Target 2: 1062.85
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.70
Daily control level: 1098.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2311OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 43.28
Target 2: 40.28
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.504
Daily control level: 43.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.11.2015
Oil ended last trading session higher after Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest petroleum exporter, agreed to cooperate with other oil producing countries on price stability.
West Texas Intermediate price reached US$ 43.00 high during the yesterday’s session, whereas Brent surged to US$ 45.99 level. After a market experienced a significant volatility due to the announcement, WTI closed the day 45 cents higher, whereas Brent gained 58 cents.
Oil price lost almost two third of the value since its collapse began in the middle of 2014, with the WTI hitting the low of US$ 37.92 at the end of last August.
In the previous meeting held by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last month, Saudi Arabia declared that despite the worrying market state it is not willing to cut the production presently.
As the oil industry is mainly controlled by just a few large oil producers, it implies quite a harsh competition. By allowing a significant price drop, the larger producers could ensure that smaller competitors will be erased, as producing at the low cost is unsustainable to them.
Nevertheless the incentive for higher prices has still remained for the producers, with many analysts believe that the currently low prices could not last long.
At the moment, the OPEC has set the limits of production at 30 million barrels per day. However, since there is no penalty imposed on the producers in case these restrictions are exceeded, the chances are that the present parameters are not kept by some of the OPEC members.
The Saudi comments came just a day after the Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino told in a press conference that the oil price could drop to as low as US$ 20 if no change in the OPEC’s current policy will be made.
Mr Del Pino comments are doubled by the September’s forecast of Goldman Sachs, which indicated that the Oil price could reach US$ 20 per barrel next year. Nevertheless, the majority of analysts believe that the oil price should balance closer to US$ 60.
For now the Saudi Arabia proposed “willingness to cooperate” does not, in fact, change anything and remains just words. Recently surging US Dollar is adding further pressure on the black commodity’s price.
The weakness of the world’s second largest economy China, therefore the significantly reduced demand for Oil is an additional heavy weighting factor. Therefore drastic actions and significant efforts need to be implemented in order for the oil price to recover in the near future.
The next OPEC meeting will be held on December 4 could give some more hints regarding the direction of the Oil price in the near future, however, it seems unlikely that the current market-based pricing strategy will be abandoned by the organization.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2411EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0726
Target 2: 1.0546
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.0825
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2411GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5219
Target 2: 1.5025
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.5335
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2411USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.48
Target 2: 122.18
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.649
Daily control level: 123.75
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2411USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0270
Target 2: 1.0118
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076
Daily control level: 1.000
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2411USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3445
Target 2: 1.3281
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 1.3245
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2411AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7256
Target 2: 0.7120
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0068
Daily control level: 0.7070
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2411GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1081.75
Target 2: 1055.85
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.95
Daily control level: 1098.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2411OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 43.80
Target 2: 40.84
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.482
Daily control level: 43.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.11.2015
Further updates on economic conditions within the United States will come in the form of the monthly Core Durable Goods Orders data this afternoon at 1:30 pm London time.
The index released by the US Census Bureau represents the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of durable goods.
Transportation and aircraft items are excluded from the index, since these goods are of a high value and volatility and can significantly distort the overall picture.
Durable goods are defined as items with a life expectancy of more than three years, which includes cars, computers, industrial machinery and appliances.
Monthly manufacturers’ inventories, shipments and orders are surveyed with the manufacturing companies of US$ 500 million and more in yearly deliveries.
An increased level of purchase orders shows that producers will be busy in the coming months to work on filling the orders, which consequently will influence the creation of additional jobs and increase spending.
The value of the index for the month of October is projected to improve to 0.5%, up from -0.3% of the previous publishing.
The actual value of the indicator that is above the forecasted will likely have a boosting effect on the US currency.
US Dollar Index has recently set new highs and was trading above 100 mark at the beginning of this week’s trading session. However, the index showed some weakness for the last two days and reached 99.35 low this morning.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2511EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0732
Target 2: 1.0552
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 1.0830
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2511GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5168
Target 2: 1.4988
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 1.5335
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2511USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.17
Target 2: 121.89
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.642
Daily control level: 123.75
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2511USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0237
Target 2: 1.0089
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074
Daily control level: 1.000
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2511USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3382
Target 2: 1.3224
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079
Daily control level: 1.3245
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2511AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7319
Target 2: 0.7181
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0069
Daily control level: 0.7150
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2511GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1088.38
Target 2: 1061.82
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.27
Daily control level: 1098.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2511OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 44.58
Target 2: 41.58
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5007
Daily control level: 40.65
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.11.2015
The quarterly Australian Private Expenditure data has opened this trading day with quite a disappointing results, as it showed that the spending by the private businesses decreased to -9.2 % against -2.8% expected.
This data completed this year’s set of the releases with all of them in the negative side and reached the worst results since February 2000, pulling the recently recovering AUDUSD pair to the downside.
“In an acknowledgment that the below-par economic growth of the past three years will persist, the Treasury’s top forecaster, Nigel Ray, said next month’s budget update would assume long-term growth of 2.75 per cent, down from about 3 percent” – the Australian Financial Review reports.
“A sharp slowdown in population growth since export prices peaked in 2011 means the economy won’t expand as fast as previously assumed. Lower growth could mean a future of fewer jobs and poorer investment returns. It would hit taxes, making it harder to pay for promised raises in defence, education, old age and welfare services” – Jacob Greber, observes in his recent article.
For now the probability of a further interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the near future is increasing, as fewer people will mean fewer employees and, therefore, an additional drop in productivity.
The European trading session today looks quite deserted regarding the economic releases, whereas the American markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thus, the low trading volume will likely govern the market though the risk of volatility in case of any significant event enters the media headlines.
Despite some retracement yesterday, it seems the dollar index is continuing to persist on the way up, bouncing off the 99.75 support this morning and likely heading to retest the recent high of 100.20.
Gold, the traders’ favourite commodity after the oil is remaining to trade at five-year low, trading a descending triangle pattern, which could suggest a move lower might be ahead.
Oil price, after encountering some volatility, has managed to keep the positions it gained on Monday on Saudi Arabia’s comments. The crude was trading above US$ 43.10 support and daily pivot point this morning.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH126112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0700
Target 2: 1.0540
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 1.0690
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH126112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5200
Target 2: 1.5040
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 1.5050
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH126112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.20
Target 2: 122.15
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.56
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH126112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0280
Target 2: 1.0135
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073
Daily control level: 1.0140
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH126112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3360
Target 2: 1.3215
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073
Daily control level: 1.3340
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH126112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7315
Target 2: 0.7185
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0064
Daily control level: 0.7155
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH126112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1082.00
Target 2: 1058.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.30
Daily control level: 1081.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH126112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 44.80
Target 2: 41.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.49
Daily control level: 42.15
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.11.2015
As we head into next week and the start of the last month of 2015, one would have expected that the markets would be in a holiday mode as trading volumes decline during the beginning of the festive season.
In reality, the opposite is very much the case. On Thursday of next week, Mr. Mario Draghi, who is the president of the European Central Bank will give his final and probably most important press conference of the year.
The markets are expecting President Draghi to announce new measures that will help to kick start the Euro-Zones patchy economic recovery.
There have been complications since the last ECB meeting with a refugee crisis vividly shown on European television channels causing real friction between the leadership of political parties and the rank and file members as well as between European Union member Governments.
This refugee crisis has been followed by the tragic events that have unfolded in Paris and the need to shut down productive economic activity in much of Belgium due to fears of further terrorist action.
With the Schengen treaty that allows for the free movement of persons within the European Union Member borders now under real threat the fear is that the Geopolitical instability that has its roots in the Middle East could eventually restrict the flow of commerce within Schengen member states. The knock on effect would be to further depress the economic outlook for the Euro-Area.
The European nations have a duty of care to look after and provide shelter to refugees who are fleeing conflict. We simply could not allow those fleeing terror to remain on the beaches of Greece and Malta during the cold winter season.
However, accepting so many new arrivals is going to add an extra burden on the resources of the European countries who have offered a safe haven. This comes at a time when these resources are limited.
Furthermore, these refugees will in the medium term want to be fully integrated into society. This will include the new citizens wish to be economically active. The very idea of some estimated one million new arrivals being accepted into the Euro-Area will have the analysts at the ECB trying to ascertain very quickly what the likely impact will be on inflation and the job market.
This brings us back to the events of next week. The ECB is already under pressure to act on the economy and it is very likely that it will announce an expansion of the current quantitative easing programme.
Will the refugee crisis have an impact on ECB policy? Probably not at this stage. However if the crisis in Syria and Iraq is not resolved soon and if the world’s powers do not settle their differences and move ahead to alleviate the plight of these countries populations, then the potential for serious impact on the Euro-Area economy should not be ruled out.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH127112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0690
Target 2: 1.0530
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 1.0690
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH127112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5175
Target 2: 1.5020
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079
Daily control level: 1.5050
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH127112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.10
Target 2: 122.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.55
Daily control level: 122.72
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH127112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0300
Target 2: 1.0170
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070
Daily control level: 1.0140
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH127112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3360
Target 2: 1.3220
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070
Daily control level: 1.3340
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH127112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7290
Target 2: 0.7160
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0064
Daily control level: 0.7155
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH127112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1083.00
Target 2: 1059.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.27
Daily control level: 1075.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH127112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 44.50
Target 2: 41.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.45
Daily control level: 42.15
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.11.2015
Earlier in November, the International Monetary Fund Managing Director, Christine Lagarde announced her backing for the inclusion of the Chinese Yuan into a select basket of international reserve currencies.
It is now expected that later today, the Chinese Yuan will be given official IMF approval that sees this currency obtain Special Drawing Rights status.
Gaining SDR status has been a long term goal for both the Chinese political leadership and the Peoples Bank of China.
If, as it is assumed, the Yuan is included as an IMF reserve currency, then it will join other global currency heavyweights in an exclusive club that includes, the US Dollar, the Euro, British Pound and Japanese Yen.
The acceptance into this prestigious club would indicate that the IMF has looked past the problems that China has faced over the summer.
Furthermore, it would appear that the currency devaluation that the PBOC initiated is not seen as an impediment for inclusion in the SDR basket.
Although it is not thought that China will make any implicit commitments not to embark on further competitive devaluations, there does appear that the Chinese leadership will stick to a path that is more focused on consumption and less that is export driven.
The inclusion of the Yuan into the IMF SDR basket is a symbolic win for the Chinese Government. However, this move by the IMF says a lot about the stance of the United States with respect to China.
With the Chinese economy continuing to grow, albeit, at a reduced rate, the United States has shown its preference to accept a country that now boasts the second largest economy within a club that was up till now controlled from Washington.
Any move by the United States to block the Yuan membership into the SDR basket would have meant China taking direction away from the influence of Western nations.
The Chinese Yuan membership into the SDR basket could be seen as the beginning of the end of US Dollar dominance and the only global reserve currency.
For sure, the US will have to loosen its grip on the IMF if it is going to accept the inclusion of the Yuan into the SDR basket.
However, this is not a simple changing of the guard that sees China replacing the United States as the all-powerful economic superpower.
The effects of the inclusion of the Yuan will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary as the Chinese Government moves further to transforming the country’s economy.
In the long term, if the Chinese economy does continue to growth and if regulations are improved and brought in line with acceptable international standards, then we may find the world in a few decades from now that sees the United States become one two or three (if we include the Euro) global reserve currencies.
In the short term, however, with both the European Central Bank and the Peoples Bank of China staying on a path of monetary easing and with the United States Federal Reserve about to begin a policy of tightening, the divergence of monetary policies should see the US Dollar maintain its global dominance.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/EURUSDH130112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0665
Target 2: 1.0510
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080
Daily control level: 1.0640
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GBPUSDH130112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5115
Target 2: 1.4950
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 1.5110
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDJPYH130112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 123.30
Target 2: 122.25
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.55
Daily control level: 122.30
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCHFH130112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0370
Target 2: 1.0230
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073
Daily control level: 1.0250
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/USDCADH130112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3435
Target 2: 1.3290
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073
Daily control level: 1.3280
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AUDUSDH130112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7250
Target 2: 0.7130
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0063
Daily control level: 0.7240
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/GOLDH130112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1070.00
Target 2: 1044.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.96
Daily control level: 1075.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OILUSDH130112015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 43.00
Target 2: 41.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44
Daily control level: 42.15
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.12.2015
As expected, the Chinese Yuan has been accepted by the International Fund into the basket of Special Drawing Rights currencies.
This means barring any disasters, the Yuan will join an exclusive club of currencies in October of 2016.
The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde on a momentous day for China said of the Yuan’s acceptance as an SDR currency that this was “an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy into the global financial system”
The Chinese Yuan new found status as a key component of the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies not only brings with it a great deal of prestige but is also a vote of confidence in the manner that the Chinese Government and the Peoples Bank of China have managed the recent crisis that has hit the domestic economy.
The move by the IMF also signals and acceptance that the Peoples Bank of China is gaining increasing prestige and authority. The significance of the Yuan’s SDR acceptance, therefore, highlights that the Chinese Government has allowed a certain degree of power and control to be transferred from the ruling party to an independent, state organization.
Furthermore, from a geopolitical aspect, the Yuan’s acceptance into the IMF’s SDR basket is a clear and strong message that the Chinese economy matters. The Chinese Yuan in a very short space of time has now become one or the major global currencies.
Although we are some way from the USDCNY currency pair gaining the status of EURUSD for sure the time will come in the near future when CNY will become an important financial instrument.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EURUSDH101122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0641
Target 2: 1.0485
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0078
Daily control level: 1.0636
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GBPUSDH101122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5137
Target 2: 1.4975
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 1.4993
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDJPYH101122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 123.70
Target 2: 122.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.59
Daily control level: 122.67
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCHFH101122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0363
Target 2: 1.0211
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076
Daily control level: 1.0225
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCADH101122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3435
Target 2: 1.3283
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076
Daily control level: 1.3280
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH101122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7295
Target 2: 0.7160
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0068
Daily control level: 0.7169
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GOLDH101122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1079.00
Target 2: 1051.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.84
Daily control level: 1075.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OILUSDH101122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 43.00
Target 2: 41.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.42
Daily control level: 43.66
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 02.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0212EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has breached the top of downtrend channel yesterday, with the move, however proved to be unsuccessful later.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0610 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0583, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0535, which is 2nd pivot support of the pair.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0634, being the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot resistance of today. In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0658, being the 2nd upside resistance level, could further take place.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0212GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has bounced off the today’s pivot point this morning, retracing sharply from the yesterday’s highs.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5085 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.5001, being today’s Average True Range downside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.4969, which is with the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of the day, could likely take place.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5085, which is the pair’s Pivot Point of today.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0212USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY does not let go of its efforts to trade higher.
USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.95 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 123.43, being today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.55, which is with the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.92, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.56, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today, could likely occur.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0212USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has breached the uptrend channel last night.
USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0270 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0222, being the first 1st pivot support of today. Following that the pair will likely to strive towards 1.0211 level.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today is 1.0318. A further extension towards 1.0336 resistance, which is also approximately coincides with the Average True Range upside target of today, could follow next in this case.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0212USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is striving to continue the upward move.
USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3354 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.3400, being the pair’s the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. should this aim be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3428, being the daily Average True Range upside target.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3332, which is the 1st intermediate pivot support level of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3311 could then follow that move.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0212AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD continues sharply higher on the way up this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7292 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7388, being the upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range (ATR),
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7292, being the pair’s pivot point of today. Should this level be reached, the extension towards 0.7252, which is the pair’s 1st pivot support line of today, and also coincides with downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range (ATR), could likely occur next.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0212GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.
The commodity needs to hold below 1068.83 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1063.20, being the commodity’s 1st pivot support level of today. Further extension towards 1057.49, could occur next following that.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1074.54, which is the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance of today.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0212OILUSDH11.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has bounced off the daily pivot point this morning, once again retesting the bottom of the daily upward trend channel.
The commodity needs to hold below 42.24 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 41.69, which is the commodity’s first support level of today. Should the trading break below this level, the next commodity’s target could be 41.20 level, being the 2nd pivot support of today.
If the commodity fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 42.49, being the commodity’s 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.12.2015
As the year comes to a close, the markets await two monumental decisions. It is thought by many and priced into the market that the European Central Banks, Governing Council have already agreed upon an expansion of their already large Quantitative easing program.
Whereas, across the North Atlantic in Washington, it is assumed that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee has all but rubber-stamped a decision to increase interest rates for the first time in some 9 years.
Back in the day, a central bank’s decision to increase or decrease interest rates although an important event never carried such significance, or was written about in such detail. However, in an era of globalization and an interconnected international economy, a decision to tighten or ease monetary policy has become very big news indeed.
The decisions that will be taken over the next few weeks come after a deep recession that hit the global economy in 2008. Although stock markets around the world have recovered, anything other than a rally in the major indices would have expected with so much cheap and abundant money looking for somewhere to be parked.
The United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of England was quick to step in and boost their economic systems by embarking on substantial stimulus programmes. The European Central Bank, shackled by the German Government and Bundesbank only decided to initiate its own QE programme on January 22 of this year.
The ECB President, Mr. Mario Draghi announce a few months back that the central bank would do what it takes to bring back growth to the sluggish European economy. This was an admission that all was not well with the ECB’s current programme of stimulus. It is now hard to believe that less than 12 months since the last European QE programme was announced that the markets are already pricing in QE2.
The ECB is probably right to worry. It only needs to look to Japan. A country that has suffered a chronic and disastrous recession. The fear amongst the ECB governing council is that the plight of Japan could turn out to be the story of the Euro-Area.
There are of course differences between the Japan and the Euro-Zone. Japan is a much smaller economy that is heavily focussed on manufacturing, whereas the Euro-Zone brings together a much more diverse economy.
For a better comparison, we really need to look across to the United States. What becomes evident when one compares the US and Euro-Area is the how out of kilt the economic cycles are.
Although a low inflation environment does continue to persist in the USA, there are signs that this picture is beginning to change. Furthermore, over the past few months there has been real signs that the US jobs market is beginning to show positive gains.
By contrast, the Euro-Area has shown patchy employment growth and an anaemic inflation outlook. There is talk that the Euro-Area is some 24 to 36 months behind the United States. This is probably a correct assumption. However, the structural and political problems continue to persist in the Euro-Area.
Although QE2 should eventually push the Euro-Area towards recovery, the main beneficiaries will be the core nations such as Germany, Netherlands, Austria and France. For the periphery such as Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain the road back to recovery will continue to be a long and painful journey.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EURUSDH103122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0680
Target 2: 1.0540
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072
Daily control level: 1.0636
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GBPUSDH103122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5035
Target 2: 1.4865
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 1.5125
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDJPYH103122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 123.80
Target 2: 122.65
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.60
Daily control level: 122.75
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCHFH103122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0255
Target 2: 1.0100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074
Daily control level: 1.0306
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCADH103122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3415
Target 2: 1.3265
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077
Daily control level: 1.3406
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH103122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7375
Target 2: 0.7240
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0067
Daily control level: 0.7169
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GOLDH103122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1067.00
Target 2: 1040.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.13
Daily control level: 1075.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OILUSDH103122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 42.00
Target 2: 39.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40
Daily control level: 42.60
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 04.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0412EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has retraced this morning, after the 450 pips move on Mario Draghi speech last afternoon.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0813 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.1037, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1105, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0645, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0500, being the 2nd intermediate support and an important psychological level at the same time, could further take place.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0412GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has surged higher yesterday amid the strengthening US Dollar.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5067 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.5231, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside projection level of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.5321, which is with the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level, could likely take place.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5041, which is the pair’s today’s Average True Range downside target.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0412USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is recovering yesterday’s losses this morning.
USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 123.33, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.70, which is with the pair’s 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.44, which is the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot support point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 121.89, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today together with Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0412USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has declined sharply lower on the Mario Draghi speech yesterday.
USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0270 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial downside target is 0.9900, being the daily Average True Range downside projection. Should that level be reached, the pair will likely continue to trade towards 0.9779 next.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today is 1.0170. A further extension towards 1.0290 resistance, which is the Average True Range upside target of today, could follow next in this case.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0412USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD continues to range for the second week.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3348 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.3296, being the pair’s the pair’s 1st support of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3240 level.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3403, which is today’s pivot resistance level of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3431, being the daily Average True Range upside projection could then follow that move.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0412AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD was not much affected by the yesterday’s markets volatility.
AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7327 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7271, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7248, being the 2nd pivot support line together with the bottom of the uptrend channel.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7371, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, the extension towards 0.7409, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection, could likely occur next.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0412GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.
The commodity needs to hold above 1057.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1069.40, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Further extension towards 1076.75, being the upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range (ATR), could occur next following that.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1057.79, which is the commodity’s pivot point of today. The commodity price then could further stretch towards 1050.30 level, which also coincides with the downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0412OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil is trading higher this morning after it reached a new three-month low on Wednesday.
The commodity needs to hold above 41.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 42.76, which is the commodity’s first support level of today. . Should the trading break above this level, the next commodity’s target could be 43.51, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today which also coincides with of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.
If the commodity fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 41.79, being the commodity’s pivot point of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 07.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0412EURUSDH41.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD continue to retrace from the Thursday’s highs when Mario Draghi speech became a disappointment to investors.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0890 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0768, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0703, which is 2nd pivot support of the pair, could take place next.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0890, being the pair’s pivot point of today. In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0973, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could further take place.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0712GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD is consolidating, after a strong upmove on Thursday.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5000 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.5032, being today’s 2nd pivot support level of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.5000, which is with today’s Average True Range downside projection level of the pair, could likely take place.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5048, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0712USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is recovering yesterday’s losses this morning.
USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 123.33, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.70, which is with the pair’s 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.44, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.53, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today together with Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0712USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is retesting 1.0030 resistance line, looking to recover the losses the pair made last Thursday.
USDCHF needs to hold above 1.09969 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0070, being the daily Average True Range upside projection. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 1.0121 intermediate resistance next.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9970, being the pivot point of today. A further extension towards 0.9905 resistance, which is the pair’s 1st pivot support level, could follow next in this case.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0712USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is trading higher this morning, after the set of dissapointing Canadian economic data was published last Friday.
USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3364 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.3450, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3510, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3363, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3288, being the daily Average True Range downside projection could follow that move then.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0712AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD declined lower this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7331 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7267, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7251, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support line and coinciding with the bottom of the uptrend channel.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7384, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, the extension towards 0.7409, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection, could likely occur next.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0712GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold was among the top performers last Friday, as investors’ uncertainty regarding the forex main currency grows.
The commodity needs to hold above 1077.43 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1096.84, which is also approximately coincides with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this target be reached, a move towards 1107.88, being the pair’s second resistance point of today could likely take place next.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1070.91, which is the commodity’s downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0712OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to trade lower this morning as no action to reduce the oil production was the outcome of the Friday’s OPEC meeting.
The commodity needs to hold above 41.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial downside target is 39.01, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.
If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 41.93, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0812EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD is ranging, trying to define a further direction after last Thursday’s move.
EURUSD needs to break below 1.0838 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0789, which is 1st pivot support of the pair. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0731, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could take place next.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0939, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0812GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD is heading lower after much lower than expected UK Manufacturing Production figure was published this morning.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5070 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4953, being today’s 3rd pivot support level, which also coincides with Daily Average True Range downside projection level of the pair.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5070, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0812USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is retracing this morning.
USDJPY needs to break above the 123.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 123.32, which is the pivot point of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.50, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.83, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.72, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0812USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is consolidating after last Thursday’s decline.
USDCHF needs to breach above 1.0000 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0033, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 1.0067, being the 2nd resistance level.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9927, being the 1st pivot support of today. A further extension towards 0.9900 level, which is the pair’s daily Average True Range downside projection level, could follow next in this case.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0812USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD has reached the eleven-year high this morning.
USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3461 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.3584, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3620, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3461, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3412, being the daily Average True Range downside projection could follow that move then.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0812AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7287 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7190, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7149, being the 3rd pivot support line of today.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7287, being the pair’s pivot point level of today.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0812GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold is retracing from the last Friday’s highs.
The commodity needs to hold below 1074.64 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1062.82, which is the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, a move towards 1054.62, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could likely take place next.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1085.72, which is the commodity’s upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/0812OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has declined to a six-year low this morning.
The commodity needs to hold below 39.28 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 37.90, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim achieved successfully, the price could extend towards 37.30, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.
If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.28, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.12.2015
The European Central Banks decisions not to deliver on its promise of QE2 has created indecision in the minds of traders.
Following the ECB’s lack of action, the market is now divided on the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision that takes place today.
However, some websites are reporting that the forecast is that the Official Cash Rate will be cut by 25 basis points from 2.75% to 2.50%.
A rate cut at this stage although significant, a failure by the RBNZ to follow through at this juncture would not put this story to bed.
What is of equal importance is the wording of the forward guidance that is made available to the market.
A dovish statement by the RBNZ will reinforce the negative bias for NZDUSD. Furthermore, the apparent policy divergence between the RNBZ and the United States Federal Reserve could further weaken the Kiwi over the short to medium term.
From a technical perspective, there is a concern within the RBNZ that the New Zealand Dollar has shown recent signs of strength. The price action having put a bottom in place at the 0.6120 which coincides with an area of monthly Fibonacci support around the 61.8% retracement level that was generated from March 2009 low and August 2011 high.
The move off the 61.8% Fibonacci level was sufficient enough to push NZDUSD through upward resistance as the price action broke through the upper slope of a downward channel that began in July 2014.
With the price action having re-broken above the 100 periods daily moving average as NZDUSD attempts to put in place a higher high, higher low, higher high formation on the daily chart, the fear within the RBNZ is that with the Kiwi no perilously close to the 200 periods daily moving average.
The opportunity now presents itself for a reinjection of some bearish news that will reinforce the dovish argument for NZDUSD and allow for this currency to once again depreciate, thus helping these country exporters to maintain their competitive advantage.
In terms of timing and levels, we should see a pickup in downside momentum post the FOMC meeting on December 16. That is unless we get a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen.
The key levels would be a bounce off the 200 SMA around the 0.6700 / 0.6750 area and confirmation of the bearish bias will occur if we see a breach of the most recent daily swing low at the 0.6425 and then followed by a break of the 0.6400 big figure.
A more aggressive strategy would be to follow the downside momentum as the price action breaks key 4 and 1-hour support levels.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EURUSDH109122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0990
Target 2: 1.0790
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.0950
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GBPUSDH109122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5105
Target 2: 1.4910
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.5160
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDJPYH109122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.55
Target 2: 122.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.62
Daily control level: 123.50
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCHFH109122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0020
Target 2: 0.9825
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.0035
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCADH109122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3675
Target 2: 1.3495
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 1.3315
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH109122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7285
Target 2: 0.7140
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072
Daily control level: 0.7385
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GOLDH109122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1089.00
Target 2: 1060.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.94
Daily control level: 1066.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OILUSDH109122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 40.00
Target 2: 37.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.56
Daily control level: 42.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1012EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD is retracing from 10-day high.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0981 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.1084, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1130 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0918, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0817 support level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1012GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has reached a two-week high ahead of BOE Monetary Policy Statement this afternoon.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5124 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.5245, being today’s 1st pivot resistance level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5281, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection could further take place.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5069, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range downside aim.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1012USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has declined lower as investors interest in the Japanese Yen is increasing.
USDJPY needs to hold below the 121.86 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the downtrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 120.68, which is the 1st pivot support and also coincides the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.87, could likely take place.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.62, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 123.81, being the pair’s 2nd resistance level of today, could occur.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1012USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has breached the downtrend channel this morning.
USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9864 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 0.9784, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9725, being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9933, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1012USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3570 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.3486, being the Average True Range downside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3418, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3625, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3670, being the daily Average True Range upside projection.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is trying to return to trade within the limits of the recently breached uptrend channel.
AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7215 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7332, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7385 could likely to be seen next following that.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7215, being the pair’s pivot point of today.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1012GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold continue ranging in indecision after it surged higher last Friday.
The commodity needs to hold above 1075.49 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial downside target is 1087.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1066.01, which is the 1st support level of the pair for today. Following that, a move lower to 1056.60, being the commodity’s downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range, could take place next.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1012OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil is consolidating at the six-year this morning, with the likely attempt to retest these limits.
The commodity needs to hold below 38.73 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 37.51, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim achieved successfully, the price could extend towards 36.92, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.
If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.12, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 11.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1112EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD is trading within upward trending channel amid the US Dollar weakness ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0927 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.1011, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1047 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0901, being the pair’s 1st suport level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0831, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1112GBPUSDH41.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the upward trending channel this morning.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5156 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.5203, being today’s 1st pivot resistance level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5261, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5088, which is the pair’s 2nd intermediate support of today. Following that, the price could move to 1.5049, being the Daily Average True Range downside aim.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1112USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has bounced off the upper limit of the average Daily Average True Range.
USDJPY needs to break below the 121.55 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the downtrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 121.23, which is the 1st pivot support line of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 120.78, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.31. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.48, being the pair’s 3rd resistance level of today, could occur.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1112USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is consolidating above the downward trending channel, which the pair breached yesterday.
USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9870 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 0.9810, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9767, being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9975, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1112USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.
USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3597 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3772, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3597, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3530, being the daily Average True Range downside projection.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1112AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7278 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7204, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7165 could likely to be seen following that.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7278, being the pair’s pivot point of today.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1112GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold declined lower this morning, bouncing off the newly formed downtrend channel.
The commodity needs to hold below 1072.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1056.31, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1072.25, which is the pivot point of the pair for today. Following that, a move higher to 1075.27, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance point and coinciding with the top of the downward trend channel, could occur next.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1112OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has reached a new six-year low this morning.
The commodity needs to hold below 38.11 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 36.92, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.
If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 38.50, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1412EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has created a new lower high at the end of the last trading session.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0978 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0926, which is 1st pivot support of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0873 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1030, being the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.1095, which is the Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1412GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel this morning.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5185 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.5122, being today’s 1st pivot support together with the Daily Average True Range upside projection level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5071, which is today’s 2nd pivot support, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5215 which is the pair’s 1st intermediate resistance of today, and also coincides with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, the price could move to 1.5246, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1412USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has bounced off the upper limit of the average Daily Average True Range.
USDJPY needs to break above the 121.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 121.90, which being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside target. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 122.90, is the 2nd pivot resistance line, could likely take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.21, which is the Daily Average True Range downside target of the pair. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 119.60, being the pair’s 2nd support level of today, could occur next.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1412USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is consolidating above the downward trending channel, which the pair breached last Thursday.
USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9841 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 0.9784, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9726 being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9944, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1412USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.
USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3597 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3772, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3597, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3530, being the daily Average True Range downside projection.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1412AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has breached the recently formed uptrend channel this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7215 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7279, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7317, being the 2nd resistance level of today could likely to be seen following.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7149, being the pair’s 1st support level of today.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1112GOLDH41.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has bounced off the top of the newly created downtrend channel this morning.
The commodity needs to hold below 1071.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1057.59, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1076.76, which is the 1st intermediate pivot point of the pair for today and also coinciding with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, a move higher to 1081.72, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level, could occur next.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1412OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil declines to the new lows this morning, the levels last seen since 2009.
The commodity needs to hold below 37.15 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 36.06, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should that target be reached, a following move to 35.42, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could follow next.
If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 37.79, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 15.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1512EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD is slowing down ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC statement
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0994 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.1103, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1146, which is 3rd pivot resistance of the pair, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0940, being the pair’s 1st support level of today and also coinciding with the bottom of the uptrend channel. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0881, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1512GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel yesterday, continuing with a move lower this morning.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5158 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.5087, being today’s 1st pivot support. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5029, which is today’s 2nd pivot support together with the Daily Average True Range downside projection level, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5210 which is the pair’s 1st resistance of today, and also coincides with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, the price could move to 1.5251, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1512USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is consolidating at six-week low this morning.
USDJPY needs to hold above the 121.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 121.47, which is the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 121.86, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside target and also 2nd pivot resistance line, could likely take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.45, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection of the pair. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 119.89, being the pair’s 2nd support level of today, could occur next.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1512USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continue to consolidate, after it breached the downward channel last week.
USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9841 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 0.9885, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9950 being the daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9736, being the Average True Range downside projection of today.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1512USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is retesting to return trading within the limits of the uptrend channel this morning.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3729 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range downside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3573, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3782, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today and also coincides with the pair’s eleven-year high. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3831, being the daily Average True Range upside projection.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1512AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is returning to retest the top of the recently formed downtrend channel.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7226level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7287, being the 1st resistance level of today. An additional extend to 0.7323, the Average True Range upside projection of today, could likely to be seen following.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7176, being the pair’s 1st support level of today, which also approximately coincides with the Average True Range downside projection level.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1512GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has shot higher this morning, after the metal once again reached two-week low in the overnight trade.
The commodity needs to hold above 1065.28 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1072.00, which is the pairs 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this aim be reached, Gold could extend towards 1075.45, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1053.20, which is the 1st pivot support of the pair for today. Following that, a move lower to 1046.49, being the commodity’s 2nd support level, could occur next.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/1512OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil is recovering this morning after it reached new 2009 lows during the previous trading session.
The commodity needs to hold above 37.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 38.92, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should that target be reached, a move to 40.03, being the 3rd pivot resistance level could follow next.
If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 37.03, being the commodity’s pivot point of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.12.2015
The most momentous United States interest rate decision in almost a decade is less than 12 hours away.
It can be said with some justification that the Federal Reserve has communicated poorly its intentions to the markets and somewhat painted itself into a corner.
It would now be an extraordinary reversal if the FOMC does not increase the Fed Funds rate this evening.
Central Banks usually hike interest rates to cool off an overheating economy. However, although the US economy is showing positive signs the recovery has been patchy and does not encompass the whole country.
Inflation is not really a problem at the moment. In fact, plunging commodity prices as seen by the continued fall in the value of crude oil over the past week could actually hold back the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target being met.
We can add to this cocktail, the prospect of deflation being imported into the US economy. This is due to the current easing stance of both the Peoples Bank of China and the European Central Bank.
For all of these reasons, one can understand why many analysts and even some members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee are questioning the merits of increasing interest rates today.
The foreign exchange markets tell their own story with its recent appreciation of EURUSD coming to an abrupt halt.
The markets have had time to digest the disappointing lack of action taken by the European Central Bank and its failure to increase as promised the stimulus to the Euro-Area’s flagging economy.
With currency traders having worked through last ECB announcement, the apparent topping formation in EURUSD would appear to be a sign that the markets are assuming that we will see an increase in the Fed Funds interest rate by 25 basis points.
A Fed Funds rate increase will only tell us half the story as there is real uncertainty over what shape the trajectory of future interest rate increases will look like in 2016.
Therefore, what is important to glean from today’s statement is the pace of future interest rate increases.
A dovish hike would see at the most two further rate hikes during 2016. Whereas a hawkish surprise could see as many as four rate hikes being announced by the FOMC during the course of next year.
I doubt very much that the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Mrs. Janet Yellen will be so kind to give the markets exact numbers tomorrow on the amount and frequency of interest rate decisions for 2016. However, I would hope that the tone of the announcement to give us some strong clues.
I expect that this evening, the FOMC will give us a dovish hike. The reason for this is that the Federal Reserve is scared that it would be blamed that a hawkish surprise would derail the markets.
An over hawkish message will see the US Dollar race higher as both bonds and equities will get crushed.
The logical policy for the FOMC to take would raise interest rates a little now and then commit to tightening further as and when conditions allow it to do so.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EURUSDH116122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1050
Target 2: 1.0810
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119
Daily control level: 1.1060
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GBPUSDH116122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5155
Target 2: 1.4920
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116
Daily control level: 1.5185
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDJPYH116122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 122.55
Target 2: 120.75
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.91
Daily control level: 120.55
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCHFH116122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0020
Target 2: 0.9800
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111
Daily control level: 0.9795
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCADH116122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3835
Target 2: 1.3630
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.3780
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH116122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7275
Target 2: 0.7100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 0.7285
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GOLDH116122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1077.00
Target 2: 1044.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.12
Daily control level: 1079.50
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OILUSDH116122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 39.00
Target 2: 36.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.61
Daily control level: 37.25
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 18.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EURUSDH118122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD, Thursday continued to sell off following a well-received Federal Reserve announcement that it was increasing interest rates.
This morning, the EURUSD has bounced off the 1.0800 which coincided with a prior weekly pivot level.
Although EURUSD did appreciate for most of the morning the rally could not be sustained and the price action threatens once again to test the 1.0800 during the New York session.
If the 1.0800 level is breached, the initial downside target is 1.0700 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a bounce off the 1.0800 could see EURUSD test the 1.0900 resistance level and the 1.0950 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.1015 level. However due to the developing price action, a breach of the 1.0870 which is the most recent swing high would be sufficient to change the trend from down to up. Such a move would also signal a break of the current three-day downward sloping channel.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GBPUSDH118122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD, Thursday continued to sell off following a well-received Federal Reserve announcement that it was increasing interest rates.
This morning, the GBPUSD has traded with a slight upward bias but has been unable to make a sustained break away from its opening range.
If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.5000 level and then the 1.5025 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
A breach of the 1.5015 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.
However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?
Alternatively, a failure to sustain high prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4900, 1.4850, 1.4800 and the 1.4775 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDJPYH118122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY, Thursday has experienced a volatile trade as the market digests conflicting news from the Bank of Japan.
USDJPY initially attempted to break up from its opening range. However, this move could not be sustained as the rally fell short of the 123.55 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
The price action has subsequently traded lower as USDJPY broke down from its opening range and within a few hours breached both the 121.55 and 121.35 levels.
As the latter level corresponds to today’s line of control the trend has change from up to down.
However, after such an aggressive move lower the possibility of USDJPY experiencing a corrective bounce as traders square up positions and take profits before the commencement of the weekend should not be discounted.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCHFH118122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF, Thursday had initially traded lower in a corrective fashion.
However, subsequently, USDCHF has bounced off support and traded slightly higher.
As the price action continues to be encompassed within a large up channel there is potential that USDCHF trades higher during the afternoon session.
The initial upside target is the 1.0075 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a breach of the channel bottom and the 0.9915 line of control could see USDCHF attempt to test the 0.9845 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCADH118122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD, Thursday has traded sideways and within the opening range.
However, over the past two hours, USDCAD has appreciated as the market awaits Canadian CPI and Wholesale Sales data.
A continuation of the move higher could see USDCAD test the 1.4050 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see USDCAD test the 1.3825 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH118122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD, Thursday has traded higher with the price action having bounced off the 0.7100 prior monthly pivot level.
A continuation of the move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7220 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see AUDUSD test the 0.7100 and then the 0.7030 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/18122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold, Thursday has traded higher with the price action having found support at the 1047.00 level,
A continuation of the move higher could see Gold test the 1068.00 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see Gold test the 1035.00 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OILUSDH118122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil, Thursday initially trade higher. However, during the past two hours, sellers have come back into the market.
This has led to Oil breaking down from its opening range.
A continuation of the move lower could see Oil test the 35.50 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain the move lower could see Oil test the 37.15 level which corresponds to today’s line of control.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.12.2015
Less than a year ago, Europe’s leaders were wondering how they would handle the fallout of a Greek general election result that brought to power a political party of the radical left.
What followed was months of intrigue, failed negotiations, demonstrations on the streets of Athens as the Greek Syriza party led by its charismatic leader Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his trusted lieutenant in the shape of the combative, yet clear speaking Finance Minister, Mr Yianis Varoufakis battled but ultimately lost their battle with Germany’s iron lady, Chancellor Merkel.
Fast forward to roughly a year and this morning we are trying to come to terms with a general election result that is both important for Spain but also Europe.
According to published election result data, the ruling Partido Popular as expected took the largest share of the vote. However, PP, as it is also known no longer, commands enough elected members of the legislative assembly to allow it to form a majority Government.
There will now follow a scramble to form a new coalition government. The Popular Party as the block with the highest share of the vote and the most members of parliament are going to argue that they should form the next government.
This will be a difficult undertaking as both the new political newcomers, Podemos and Ciudadanos have campaigned on tickets of political renewal and would not want to be associated with past legacy of corruption that has so tainted Spanish politics. Furthermore, Podemos being a political party of the radical left would find it very difficult to share government with the Peoples Party.
As for Ciudadanos, although it is a political party of the centre and middle classes a decision by its leader Albert Rivera would possibly be to shun forming an alliance with the centre-right PP out of fear that this will be seen as a sell out by the electorate who voted for his party.
What the markets and the European Union fears the most is for a coalition of the left to be formed by the traditional socialist PSOE and Podemos. However, the university professor comes political leader Pablo Iglesias Turrion would seem to be a man who is unwilling to compromise his principals.
So what is left is a coalition of the weakened establishment of PP and PSOE. Although this would seem a very unlikely solution, however, such a coalition of national unity was formed in Greece when the conservative New Democracy and the Socialist PASOK buried their differences so as to keep Syriza out of power.
Such a coalition would maintain the establishment grip of Spanish politics and would be welcomed by both the European Union and the markets.
Furthermore, it would be hoped that another term of a PP Government but in this case supported by the PSOE would give the new administration time to push the country back into solid economic and job growth. With Spain back on track, the popularity of Podemos and Ciudadanos would wane.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EURUSDH121012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0980
Target 2: 1.0725
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129
Daily control level: 1.0800
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GBPUSDH121012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5025
Target 2: 1.4775
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0126
Daily control level: 1.4950
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDJPYH121012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.30
Target 2: 120.15
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.09
Daily control level: 123.30
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCHFH121012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0045
Target 2: 0.9810
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 0.9795
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCADH121012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4050
Target 2: 1.3815
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119
Daily control level: 1.3850
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH121012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7260
Target 2: 0.7075
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 0.7100
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GOLDH121012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1082.00
Target 2: 1049.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.63
Daily control level: 1078.25
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OILUSDH121012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 37.60
Target 2: 34.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.67
Daily control level: 37.15
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.12.2015
Yesterday, the price per barrel of Light Sweet Crude continued to drop to new lows. The price of crude has collapsed due to considerable downward pressure being exerted by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations.
The downturn in the global economy which has seen both China and the European Union experience contractions has led to the demand of Oil decrease.
The Saudi’s are concerned that production from non-OPEC nations eats away at its market share. Saudi Arabia has two main targets in its sights. The new upstarts being the United States shale producers and the other be oil pumped from the vast Russian fields.
The production of Oil from US shale fields has pumped at a much higher cost than that from crude that is extracted by the Saudi’s. Therefore, Saudi Arabia has effectively used oversupply as a policy tool to curtail the production of shale oil by producers who in many cases have to service high debt burdens.
In the case of targeting Russian production, the benefit for Saudi is twofold. Not only can the Saudi’s draw market share away from Russian producers, but it can also be used as a financial penalty limiting Russia’s involvement in Syria.
Using Oil as a political tool is not something that is new. We had a glimpse of what can be achieved during the Oil crisis of the early 1970’s when OPEC cut off supply to the West in protest against unaligned policy interests.
It would appear that the price of Oil will continue to decline due to reasons outside the control of the Saudi’s.
Iran having come to an accommodation over its nuclear programme is now free to ramp up production. Furthermore, production from Russian fields continues to increase. Finally, the United States has now ended a 40-year ban on the export of Oil.
With the demand of oil not increasing, the only limiting factor to production being ramped up is where will all this excess supply of crude be stored? Refineries are limited to how much crude can be processed and land-based storage is already at full capacity. Therefore, there is a need to begin storing oil offshore within tankers.
With so much pessimism over the downward direction of the price of Oil, one would most probably contemplate levels of US$30, US$25 or even US$20 per barrel. However, moods can sometimes change very quickly.
Searching for clues for when Oil will eventual begin to form a base is not an easy task.
I am however looking at two areas of interest.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EURUSDH122122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1040
Target 2: 1.0790
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128
Daily control level: 1.0845
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GBPUSDH122122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4995
Target 2: 1.4675
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115
Daily control level: 1.4930
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDJPYH122122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.30
Target 2: 120.10
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06
Daily control level: 121.50
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCHFH122122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0035
Target 2: 0.9810
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 0.9895
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCADH122122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4075
Target 2: 1.3840
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 1.3850
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH122122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7280
Target 2: 0.7090
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 0.7110
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GOLDH122122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1094.00
Target 2: 1062.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.21
Daily control level: 1066.75
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OILUSDH122122015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 37.60
Target 2: 34.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.59
Daily control level: 37.15
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 23.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EURUSDH123122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD, Tuesday continued to trade higher as the price action remained within a well-defined but narrow up channel.
This morning, the EURUSD has broken down from its up channel.
The price action did consolidate within an early morning range however the selling pressure returned and EURUSD subsequently traded lower.
If the 1.0900 level is breached, the initial downside target is 1.0850 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a bounce off the 1.0900 could see EURUSD test the 1.1050 resistance level and the 1.1055 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.090 level. However due to the developing price action, a sustained breach of this will change the trend from up to down.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GBPUSDH123122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD, Tuesday continued to sell off following worse than expected PSBR number.
This morning, the GBPUSD has traded with a slight upward bias but has been unable to make a sustained break away from its opening range.
If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.4900 and then the 1.4930 level. The latter level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
A breach of the 1.4915 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.
However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?
Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4800, and the 1.4720 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDJPYH123122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY, Tuesday traded with a slight downward bias.
This morning, USDJPY has experienced a very mild bounce with the price action contained within its opening days range.
A continuation of the rally could see USDJPY test the 122.00 and 122.05 resistance levels. The latter level corresponding to the ATR upside projection.
A breach of the 121.50 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see USDJPY test the 120.05 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCHFH123122015-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF, Tuesday had initially traded lower as the price action rejected higher prices following the break of it’s up the channel.
This morning USDCHF has found support at the 0.9850 level and this has enabled this pair to experience a modest rally.
If USDCHF does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.9950 and then the 0.9960. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
A breach of the 0.9940 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see USDCHF test the 0.9850, and the 0.9780 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCADH123122015-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD, Tuesday traded lower in a corrective fashion.
This morning, USDCAD is trading in a tight opening range as the markets await significant afternoon Canadian data.
If USDCAD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.3875 and then the 1.3810. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
A breach of the 1.3850 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCAD test the 1.4030 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH123122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD, Tuesday continued to trade higher following the breach of its down channel.
This morning, the AUDUSD has traded within its opening days range with the price action attempting to breach the overnight lower pivot that can be found at the 0.7220 level.
If AUDUSD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.7145 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
A sustained breach of the 0.7220 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see AUDUSD test the 0.7300, and the 0.7325 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GOLDH123122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold, Tuesday continued to trade lower in a corrective fashion.
This morning, the price action has been contained with a narrow opening range.
If Gold does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1066.75 and then the 1057.00 level. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
A sustained breach of the 1066.75 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see Gold test the 1088.0.0 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OILUSDH123122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil, Tuesday continued to trade higher following a bounce off the 35.50 level.
This morning, the Oil has traded within its opening days range and is now testing the upper level of its down channel.
If Oil does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 38.1 5level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Oil test the 35.80 and the 35.15 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.
A sustained breach of the 35.80 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 24.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EURUSDH124122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD, Wednesday traded lower for most of the session as the price action broke under the 1.0900 support level.
However. EURUSD was not able to continue with the bearish momentum as buyers came in and supported this pair around the 1.0870 congestion area.
This morning, the EURUSD has continued to trade higher and has broken above its early morning range.
If the 1.0985 level is breached, the initial upside target is 1.1010 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a retest of the 1.0900 level could see EURUSD trade down to the 1.0810 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.0985 level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GBPUSDH124122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD, Wednesday traded higher for most of the session as the price action broke through the 1.4850 resistance level.
However, GBPUSD advance was stalled at the 1.4900 resistance level.
This morning, the GBPUSD had initially traded within its opening range but has subsequently made an attempt to break higher.
The 1.4900 resistance level thus far, however, has proven to be a strong barrier for further advances.
If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.4975 and then the 1.5000 level. The former level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
A sustained breach of the 1.4900 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.
However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?
Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4850, and the 1.4765 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDJPYH124122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY, Wednesday traded in sideways to lower fashion for most of the session.
This morning, USDJPY has broken down from its opening days range.
A continuation of the decline could see USDJPY test the 119.90 support level. This level corresponds to the ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDJPY test the 121.15 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
A breach of the 121.15 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCHFH124122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF, Wednesday traded higher for most of the day.
However into the Asian session, strong selling came into the market.
This morning USDCHF has experienced a strong decline as the price action broke down from its opening range and is no testing the lows of yesterday.
If USDCHF does continue to trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is 0.9855 followed by the 0.9810. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
A breach of the 0.9855 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCHF test the 0.9950, and the 0.9990 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCADH124122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD, Wednesday experienced strong selloff.
This morning, USDCAD is trading in a tight opening range.
If USDCAD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.3800 and then the 1.3735. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCAD test the 1.3960 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
A breach of the 1.3940 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH124122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD, Wednesday traded in a sideways manner following the breach of its down channel.
This morning, the AUDUSD has traded higher as the price action breaks above its opening range.
If AUDUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.7315 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see AUDUSD test the 0.7205, and the 0.7140 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.
A sustained breach of the 0.7205 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GOLDH124122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold, Wednesday continued to trade lower.
This morning, the price action has traded within the opening days range.
If Gold does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1075.40 and then the 1083.00 level. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Gold test the 1086.00 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
A sustained breach of the 1075.40 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OILUSDH124122015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil, Wednesday traded higher for the entire session.
This morning, the price action has traded within the opening days range.
If Oil does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 39.50 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Oil test the 36.65 and the 35.85 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.
A sustained breach of the 35.85 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.12.2015
The first day back after Christmas and the main driver of the European session, London is closed as British traders enjoying the Boxing Day holiday.
With market participants finding it hard to find anyone to match their trades it is expected that volumes will be much lower than is normal for any given Monday.
In terms of event risk, the afternoon session will come with a round of US debt auction, where two-year notes as well as three and six-month bills will be offered. Traders will look at the outcome to assess the recent Federal Reserve policy tightening into real-world application.
Apart from the above investors will also be looking at the US Dallas Manufacturing Activity release this afternoon. The index is forecasted to decline to -7.0 from -4.9 figure last time.
In general, it is expected that the US session will be a quiet affair with dealing rooms manned by skeleton staff who is there in case for an odd piece of corporate business information may need to be taken care of.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2812EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 4 hour: UP
Target 1: 1.1047
Target 2: 1.0853
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.0985
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2812GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 4 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5011
Target 2: 1.4799
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.4900
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2812USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 4 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.14
Target 2: 119.12
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.0124
Daily control level: 121.15
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2812USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 4 hour: Range
Target 1: 0.9941
Target 2: 0.9763
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.9855
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2812USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 4 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3939
Target 2: 1.3725
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.3940
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2812AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7357
Target 2: 0.7187
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7205
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2812GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1088.36
Target 2: 1062.42
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.97
Daily control level: 1075.40
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2812OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 39.62
Target 2: 36.90
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3629
Daily control level: 35.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 29.12.2015
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2912EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has stalled just below the psychological resistance level of 1.1000 ahead of the New York holidays.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0973 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.1016, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1061, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0942, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0917, which is the today’s 2nd pivot support level.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2912GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD is looking to retest the 10-month low, after the pair bounced off the top of the downtrend channel.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4895 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4796, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.4775, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4917, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today and also coincides with the upper part of the downtrend channel. Following that, GBPUSD could extend the move to 1.4956, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2912USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is retesting the top of the downward trend channel this morning.
USDJPY needs to hold above 120.38 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 120.63, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 120.88 being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance, could likely take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 119.87, which is the 2nd pivot support of the day. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension towards 119.61, could likely occur next.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2912USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continues to trade around the daily pivot point today.
USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9879 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 0.9857, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9831, which is the 2nd pivot support of the pair.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9904, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance and also coinciding with the top of the recently formed downtrend channel. The extension further to 0.9927 could follow next in this case.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2912USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD resumed to trade higher this morning.
USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3876 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.3981, being the pair’s 2nd resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.4007, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3838, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3797, being the Average True Range downside projection of today.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2912AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has once again retesting 0.7280 support this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7256 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7293, being the 2nd resistance level of today. Should that target be reached successfully, the extension towards 0.7305 could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7236, being the pairs 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, an extension towards 0.7224, would likely follow next.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2912GOLDH4-1.png)
level The intraday technical outlook
Gold has bounced off the downtrend resistance line this morning.
The commodity needs to hold below 1070.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1064.35, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend towards 1060.05 mark.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1074.89, which is the 1st pivot resistance level of the metal for today. Following that, the commodity’s price could move to 1081.53, being the upside Average True Range upside projection for today.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2912OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price has made up to now unsuccessful attempt to trade higher.
The commodity needs to hold below 37.40 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 36.54, being the 1st pivot resistance level for today. Should that target be reached, the commodity could continue its move to 35.74, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.
If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 38.40, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level for today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.12.2015
December 30 gives us an increase in event risk with a good amount of data being released to the market.
The morning starts early with the Spanish Flash CPI data being released at 8:00 am London time. The change in the price of goods and services within the country is expected to improve to 0.1%, up from -0.3% of the November release.
This publishing is followed by the European Central Bank announcing the final M3 Money Supply number for 2015, with the domestic currency circulation and deposits is forecasted to come slightly lower to 5.2% this time.
The focus for the afternoon shifts across the pond to the United States when the National association of retailers will release Pending Home Sales number. The monthly increase is expected to reach 0.6% today.
This is followed shortly after by the Crude Oil Inventories data, made available by Energy Information Administration agency of the United States. Despite that commodity’s oversupply still persists in the markets, some further drop in stock held is expected. A reduction by -1.8 million barrels is projected this week after -5.9 million of the previous release.
The amount of data to be released under normal circumstances should be sufficient to move the market.
Nevertheless, with trading rooms across the major centres of London, New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt virtually deserted and with most corporate clients doing little between the Christmas and New Year break, volumes should be light but spikes in volatility could occur.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/3012EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 1.1008
Target 2: 1.0828
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 1.0985
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/3012GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4912
Target 2: 1.4714
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.4900
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/3012USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 121.30
Target 2: 119.58
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8594
Daily control level: 121.15
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/3012USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0012
Target 2: 0.9848
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 0.9855
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/3012USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3946
Target 2: 1.3736
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.3940
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/3012AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7372
Target 2: 0.7212
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080
Daily control level: 0.7205
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/3012GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1080.73
Target 2: 1056.41
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.16
Daily control level: 1075.40
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/3012OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Range
Target 1: 39.10
Target 2: 36.56
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3307
Daily control level: 35.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.12.2015
With much of Europe closed today, we expect trading volumes to be light on the last day of 2015.
There are official bank holidays in Germany, Japan, New Zealand and Australia and this should limit activity in the Euro, Japanese Yen, Australian and New Zealand Dollars.
Although London is open, the normal course of business is for trading rooms to square up positions in the morning and for the banks to close early.
It will be up to New York to close Thursday’s and the year’s business. The Department of Labor will publish its final weekly Unemployment Claims data. However with the Federal Reserve having already given its decision on interest rates, it is doubtful that the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen will interrupt her well-deserved festive break.
On that note, ACFX would like to wish all our clients and partners a prosperous and happy new year.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EURUSDH13112.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1015
Target 2: 1.0850
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 1.0945
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GBPUSDH13112.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4905
Target 2: 1.4715
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 1.4790
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDJPYH13112.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.35
Target 2: 119.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84
Daily control level: 120.15
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCHFH13112.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9965
Target 2: 0.9805
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.9855
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/USDCADH13112.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3980
Target 2: 1.3775
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.3940
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AUDUSDH13112.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7355
Target 2: 0.7210
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075
Daily control level: 0.7265
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/GOLDH13112.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1073.50
Target 2: 1048.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.55
Daily control level: 1072.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OILUSDH13112.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 38.60
Target 2: 36.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.27
Daily control level: 38.40
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.01.2016
Following on from depressing PMI data from China that sent equity values crashing on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Monday afternoon saw weak US data add to the rather woeful start to 2016.
Yesterday afternoon the Institute for Supply Management contributed further to investor concerns by announcing an ISM Manufacturing PMI number fell short both of expectations and the prior month’s publication.
The market had expected that the ISM would publish data that was in line with the 49.1 forecast, however, the release of 48.2 even failed to beat the prior months 48.6 reading. Readings that are below 50.0 indicate manufacturing activity is contracting.
This poor reading means that for the December 2015 reporting period that manufacturing in the World’s largest economy has contracted by the greatest amount for six years.
The drop off in manufacturing activity can be blamed on the low price of Crude and the impact of the strong US Dollar which has hampered the efforts of the country’s exporters. Furthermore, anaemic growth which goes hand in hand with a lack of demand from the global economy continues to hinder local manufacturers.
There was additional bad news from the Construction sector when the US Census Bureau announced that construction spending had declined by -0.4%. The markets had expected a release to be in line with the 0.7% forecast and to at least beat the prior months 0.3% reading.
With Monday’s domestic data being so poor, the US markets took their cue from China as both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slipped substantially lower on the first trading day of 2016.
January has only just begun and with a lot of data and news driven event risk to be announced tomorrow. This includes the ADP jobs number, ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Crude Oil Inventories and the all-important FOMC Meeting Minutes.
With so much news hitting the wires, investors will be looking and hoping for positive signs which will support the US equity markets.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH105012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0915
Target 2: 1.0740
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 1.0945
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH105012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4810
Target 2: 1.4615
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.4815
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH105012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 120.25
Target 2: 118.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84
Daily control level: 120.50
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH105012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0110
Target 2: 0.9930
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.9920
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH105012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4060
Target 2: 1.3845
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.3870
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH105012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7260
Target 2: 0.7110
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075
Daily control level: 0.7330
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH105012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1086.00
Target 2: 1060.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.90
Daily control level: 1058.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/OILUSDH105012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 38.90
Target 2: 36.35
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.27
Daily control level: 36.70
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.01.2016
According to the minutes of the last FOMC meeting that took place on December 16, the decision to increase the Federal Funds rate from the historic lows of <0.25% was a “close call”.
Although Federal Reserve committee member were united in their decision to increase rates, the discussion was not a plain and simple rubber stamp event.
According to the minutes, “only gradual increases” should be expected. This comment reflected the concerns of members of the committee who viewed deflationary risks that emanate from the global economy could derail the Federal Reserve’s plan to normalize the interest rate environment.
In line with the concerns that external factors could have a bearing on the FOMC’s plans and the dot plot that has been disclosed to the market the minutes of the last meeting noted that “Participants emphasized the need to adjust the policy path as economic conditions evolved and to avoid appearing to commit to any specific pace of adjustments.”
Although the Federal Reserve Chairwoman in her message to the media and market said that she was confident that the 2% inflation target would be achieved, these views were not shared by some of the committee members.
The start of the year has seen the markets in turmoil, with the price of Oil plunging. Many analysts in the energy sector are predicting Light Sweet Crude to target the US$30.00 per barrel in the short term.
News from China since the start of the year has also been worrying with the stock exchanges of Shanghai and Shenzhen being closed once again today. These closures are due to massive drops in Chinese equity values that have meant the authorities have had to trigger circuit breakers that put in place a down limit on falls that reach the 5% and 7% levels.
The fall in the price of Chinese equities has also spread panic across to other global exchanges. The US Dow Jones 30, NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 are now once again in a bear territory on daily time frame.
Of the two mandates that the FOMC is responsible for, serious question marks now hover over the expectation that the inflation target will be reached.
On the jobs front, there are signs for optimism. The Federal Reserve is banking on the improvement in the employment outlook will continue and this will act as a catalyst that will maintain the recovery in the US economy. However, some FOMC members have questioned this hypothesis and made their views clear the minutes.
The minutes that were released last night portray a Fed that was much divided on the decision to increase interest rates. Furthermore, the divisions that lay within the committee worryingly tells the markets that that the FOMC is not convinced that its actions are correct and ahead of the curve.
This is a recipe for further volatility during January.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH107012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0865
Target 2: 1.0695
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 1.0705
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH107012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4715
Target 2: 1.4540
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 1.4815
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH107012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 119.30
Target 2: 117.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84
Daily control level: 119.70
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH107012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0155
Target 2: 0.9985
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 1.0120
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH107012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4185
Target 2: 1.3965
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111
Daily control level: 1.3895
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH107012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7140
Target 2: 0.6995
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075
Daily control level: 0.7215
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH107012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1106.00
Target 2: 1080.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.41
Daily control level: 1074.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/OILUSDH107012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 36.00
Target 2: 33.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.37
Daily control level: 39.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08.01.2016
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH108012015nu.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD, Thursday closed the day higher following the indifferent minutes release from the FOMC.
The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in an uptrend however the slope of the 120-period linear regression channel continues to be negative. The line of control that is below the current price action at the 1.0765 prior swing pivot level.
This morning, EURUSD is trading within the opening range.
A continuation EURUSD move higher could find resistance at the 1.0948 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain the upward momentum could see EURUSD trade back down to the 1.0838 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH108012015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD, Thursday closed the day lower however strong support was found at the 1.4550 area.
The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is above the current price action at the 1.4815 prior swing pivot level.
This morning GBPUSD, has broken down from its early morning opening range.
A continuation GBPUSD move lower could be halted at the 1.4549 support levels which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see GBPUSD trade back up to the 1.4685 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH10801215ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY, Thursday closed the day lower but found support at the 117.50 area.
The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is above the current price action at the 119.70 prior swing pivot level.
This morning USDJPY is trading within the opening range.
A continuation USDJPY move lower could be halted at the 117.72 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see USDJPY test the 118.35 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH108012015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF, Thursday closed the day lower but found support in the 0.9925 area.
The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend however the slope of the 120-period linear regression channel continues to be positive. The line of control that is above the current price action at the 1.0120 prior swing pivot level.
This morning USDCHF, is has broken up from its opening range.
A continuation USDCHF moves higher could be halted at the 1.0002 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain the upward momentum could see USDCHF trade back down to the 0.9923 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH108012015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD, Thursday closed the day up but found resistance in the 1.4170 area.
The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in an uptrend as can be seen by the positive slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is below the current price action at the 1.3895 prior swing pivot level.
This morning USDCAD has broken up from its early morning opening range.
A continuation of USDCAD move higher could be halted at the 1.4172 which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain the upward momentum could see USDCAD trade back down to the 1.4012 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH108012015ny-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD, Thursday closed the day lower but found support at the 0.7000 area.
The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is above the current price action at the 0.7080 prior swing pivot level.
This morning AUDUSD has broken down from its early morning opening range.
A continuation of AUDUSD moves lower could be halted at the 0.6997 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see AUDUSD trade back up to the 0.7079 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH108012015ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold, Thursday closed the day up.
The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in an uptrend as can be seen by the positive slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is below the current price action at the 1074.00 prior swing pivot level.
This morning Gold has broken down from its early morning opening range.
A continuation Gold move lower could be halted at the 1099.00 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see Gold trade back up to the 1109.00 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/OILUSDH108012015ny-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil, Thursday closed the day lower but did managed to bounce off strong support in the 33.00 area.
The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is below the current price action at the 35.30 prior swing pivot level.
This morning Oil has just traded under its opening days range.
A continuation Oil move lower could be halted at the 33.83 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see Oil trade back up to the 35.48 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.01.2016
Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its first Jobs report of 2016. Although the data looks back to December, this jobs report was meant to set the tone for a year where the Federal Reserve according to its dot plot is planning no less than 4 interest rate increases.
The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% however the Non-Farm Employment Change number caught the initial headlines with 292,000 jobs being added during the previous month. This very strong number blew away the forecast of 203,000 and the prior release of 252,000. The revisions for the prior two months were also good at +50,000.
One would have expected that on the face of it, such positive Non-Farm Payroll data would have sent the US Dollar higher during the latter part of the New York session as traders priced in an increased probability of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve March meeting.
However, the one piece of bad news that was contained on Friday’s Job Report, the month on month Average Hourly Earnings number disappointed investors.
As the US Dollar lost ground as it traded into the close the markets felt that although the NFP headline looks impressive, the markets still view the numbers not good enough for a March increase.
The question mark over the quality of the jobs being created is still of a great concern and with the jobs outlook approaching levels of full employment, it is debatable that we see further large NFP numbers announced during the coming year.
The Federal Reserve continues to push a 4 interest rate increase scenario for 2016, however, the bond market sees this to be too optimistic.
What is rather striking is according to Bloomberg’s World Interest Rate Probability (WIPR) page, market participants have now calculated an 8% probability the interest rates will be cut in March.
Although this is an unlikely scenario that the market is now allowing for a potential rate cut does show how fragile many market participants view this recovery in the US economy.
The big story of last week was China. This morning we awoke to headlines that there have been further reverses on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.
The pessimism that has seeped into the global economy since the start of the year combined with the far from unified position amongst committee members that was highlighted in last week’s Federal Reserve minutes would seem to point to further rate hikes being extremely gradual.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH111012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1003
Target 2: 1.0872
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 1.0800
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH111012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4588
Target 2: 1.4462
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.4650
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH111012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 117.61
Target 2: 116.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.81
Daily control level: 118.80
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH111012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9975
Target 2: 0.9856
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.0050
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH11012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4260
Target 2: 1.4079
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.4050
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH111012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7001
Target 2: 0.6906
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074
Daily control level: 0.7080
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH111012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1116.00
Target 2: 1094.79
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.54
Daily control level: 1091.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/OILUSDH111012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 34.71
Target 2: 32.20
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40
Daily control level: 35.30
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.01.2016
As the volatile start to the year continued, equities took further beatings as worries over China persisted.
Asian stocks reached new lows not seen since 2011 the China 50 index remained under pressure.
The recent reversal on Chinese equity markets has spread to other stock markets in the United States and Europe.
Furthermore, the negativity that surrounds the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets has seeped through to the forex market where the offshore Chinese Renminbi lost ground against the US Dollar.
At one point the USDCNH rate peaked at 6.7631 last Thursday but has since slipped back to 6.5880 following concerted action by the Peoples Bank of China to intervene and stabilize the value of the Yuan.
Increasingly, many commentators have now questioned the policy of the local regulators with the Peoples Bank of China coming increasingly under the spotlight.
The Peoples Bank of China move to support the Yuan did surprise the markets but this action is understandable. The PBOC is attempting to engineer a foreign exchange policy where the markets rather than it decides the appropriate exchange rate.
Furthermore, with the entry of the Yuan into the IMF reserve currency basket the PBOC is attempting to keep in line with its commitments which limits Yuan depreciation.
However, the PBOC has to manage the current high levels of volatility and these are only set to increase when in the early hours of tomorrow morning the Customs General Administration of China (CGAC) will announce the latest Trade Balance report.
Analysts and investors will be looking at the level of exports and imports as it is expected that both these components of the Trade Balance report will contract.
Such news would signal that the Chinese economy is shrinkage and in turn, will further fray the nerves of investors and officials at the PBOC.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH112012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0940
Target 2: 1.0789
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.0800
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH112012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4613
Target 2: 1.4461
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.4600
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH112012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 118.06
Target 2: 117.16
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.86
Daily control level: 118.80
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH112012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0088
Target 2: 0.9923
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.0050
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH112012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3130
Target 2: 1.4140
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 1.4050
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH112012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7028
Target 2: 0.6927
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0078
Daily control level: 0.7080
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH112012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1106.00
Target 2: 1084.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.27
Daily control level: 1091.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/OILUSDH112012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 32.90
Target 2: 30.81
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54
Daily control level: 34.25
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 13.01.2016
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1301EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD continues the decline after the pair bounced off the top of the downward trend channel yesterday.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0858 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0761, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0736, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0840, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0909, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1301GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has slightly recovered this morning, after the pair sunk to a new six-year low yesterday.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4546 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4365, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.4242, which is the 3rd psychological support level, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4533, which is today’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4659, being the 2nd pivot resistance.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1301USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is trading higher this morning, after the pair broke the top of the downtrend channel yesterday.
USDJPY needs to hold above 117.64 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 118.48, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 118.90 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance, could likely take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.49, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 117.21, being the USDJPY 1st pivot support level, could occur next.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1301USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continue to keep the upward momentum this morning.
USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0010 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0118, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0136, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of the pair for today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0010, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 0.9975 could follow next.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1301USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4250 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.4160, being the pair’s Average True Range downside projection. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.4110, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4325, which is the Average True Range upside projection together with the 1st pivot resistance level of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4389, being the 2nd pivot resistance of the pair.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1301AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has stabilized this morning, after the pair has created a new higher high as a likely confirmation of the downtrend reversal.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6980 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7053, being the Average True Range upside projection of the pair. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7104 could likely follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6967, being the pairs Average True Range downside projection. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6940, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today, could take place next.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1301GOLDH4.png)
level The intraday technical outlook
Gold is retracing this morning, after the metal formed a lower high pattern during the yesterday’s trading session.
The commodity needs to hold below 1089.53 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1074.83, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1069.00, which is the commodity’s 3rd intermediate pivot support.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1089.53, which is the pair’s 1st pivot point of today.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1301OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price has bounced off the top of the downtrend channel this morning.
The commodity needs to break below 31.85 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 30.42, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.06, which is 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the commodity, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.10, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14.01.2016
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1401EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD surged higher this morning, ahead of the release of the accounts from the latest ECB policy meeting held on December 3rd.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0855 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0968, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upnside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0989, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0855, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0797, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1401GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has slightly recovered this morning, after the pair sunk to a new six-year low yesterday.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4420 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4316, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.4268, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4461, which is today’s 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4497, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of the pair.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1401USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is retracing this morning, after the formation of the lower high showed the pair’s unability to support the upward momentum.
USDJPY needs to hold below 117.88 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 117.39, which is the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 116.877.12 being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside projection target, could likely take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 118.16, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 118.40, being the USDJPY 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level, could occur next.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1401USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has broken sharply the recently formed upward trend channel, as US Dollar shows some weakness during today’s trading session.
USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0060 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 0.9974, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9927, which is the 3rd pivot support level for today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0060, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension to 1.0103 could follow next.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1401USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD has reached a new thirteen-year high this morning.
USDCAD needs to hold above 1.4459 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.4160, being the pair’s Average True Range downside projection. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.4494, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4300, which is the Pivot point of today of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4256, being the Average True Range downside projection of the pair.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1401AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has bounced off the top of the downward trending channel this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.6983 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.6878, being the Average True Range downside projection of the pair. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6852 could likely follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7001, being the pairs Average True Range upside projection. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.7018, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today, could take place next.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1401GOLDH1.png)
level The intraday technical outlook
Gold is once again retesting the top of the downward trend channel this morning.
The commodity needs to break below 1089.42 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1081.69, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1078.63, which is the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1099.19, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance point of today.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1401OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price has has concentrated around the daily pivot point.
The commodity needs to hold below 31.65 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 30.72, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.04, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of the commodity, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 32.82, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.01.2016
According to market commentary by the British banking giant, the Royal Bank of Scotland, investors and the general public are facing a “cataclysmic year”.
In a note to investors, RBS said “Sell everything except high-quality bonds. This is about the return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.”
RBS pointed to the crisis in China as a catalyst that would lead to the world economy shuddering into a grinding halt. The parallel to events of 2008 which led to the once-mighty Lehman Brothers falling into bankruptcy is a scenario that is worrying to say the least.
Following the events of 2008, central banks across the globe implemented massive stimulus programmes in the form of quantitative easing. These programmes were combined with structural reform and belt-tightening which in the case of periphery Eurozone economies was administered with considerable hardship for these countries citizens.
Is it really the case that after all these sacrifices, that according to RBS, that 2016 will be a year that brings us back to ground zero?
The stock market falls in China has been accompanied with declines in Europe, the USA and Asia. The major US indices of the Dow30, S&P500 and NasDaq are in bear territory.
Equity markets have risen off the back of cheap credit. Although these days are not exactly over with interest rates still being substantially low, the support that was offered has been withdrawn when the US FOMC increased interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The Federal Reserve, according to its dot plot is planning to hike interest rates a further four times during 2016.
In the commodity space, the price of crude continues to tumble and these falls could increase as Iranian production is ramped up. With Saudi Arabia and Iran now at loggerheads, over geopolitical tensions stemming from competing interests in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, it is hard to see how these two Persian Gulf giants will be able to negotiate an agreement to limit production at the next OPEC gathering.
According to Andrew Roberts, who RBS credit chief, U.S and European equities are in line for a 10% to 20% correction. This gloomy prediction follows on from Morgan Stanley’s call for Oil to reach US$20 per barrel. Standard Chartered was, even more, negative on oil when it forecast crude hitting US$10 per barrel.
If investment banks are correct, the old adage of “sell in May and go away” has been replaced by “sell now and go on holiday”.
The picture that we are now seeing on the equity front is not very encouraging. Global indices do look like a sell-side bet. The investment bankers could be right. Growth in the global economy could hit the buffers and the China credit bubble could burst. There is enough geopolitical risk and bad news to make most us switch off our flat screen televisions when the nightly bulletin is about to begin.
Invariably, most of the times, investment bankers get it wrong. RBS is correct to highlight the concerns. However, it is still rather difficult to assess the impact that a slowdown in China will have on the global economy. It should be remembered that the Chinese economy in relative terms opened up only recently to the outside world.
The problem with notes such as the one made by RBS is that if you look hard enough, you will find signs that point to an impending crash in the global economy. On the flip side, the same can be true if you look for signs that the global economy is going to expand.
However, the fear is that such pessimistic outlooks that are promoted by investment banks could create a surge in negative sentiment and a self-fulfilling prophecy.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH115012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0954
Target 2: 1.0788
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 1.0940
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH115012015.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4502
Target 2: 1.4317
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.4450
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH115012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 118.51
Target 2: 117.33
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.92
Daily control level: 117.20
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH115012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0134
Target 2: 0.9956
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.0095
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH115012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4463
Target 2: 1.4406
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122
Daily control level: 1.4325
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH115012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7011
Target 2: 0.6915
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.6905
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH11501216.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1091.00
Target 2: 1068.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.62
Daily control level: 1096.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/OILUSDH11501216.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 32.98
Target 2: 30.44
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6536
Daily control level: 32.60
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.01.2016
Much to the displeasure of the Saudi’s and their Gulf allies, most of the economic sanctions that were placed on Iran have been lifted.
However, this victory for Tehran was tempered by news from Washington that the United States had imposed new, limited sanctions against eleven entities and individuals that are associated with Iran’s ballistic missile programme.
This positive news for Iran is also good news for global business as it allows this country to come back into the international fold and transact in global commerce.
Iran after many years of sanctions is in urgent need for a renewal of its infrastructure. This will bring many opportunities to foreign businesses who are looking for a slice of the action. It has already been reported for example that Airbus Industries is in line to capture a major 114 airliner order from Iran now that sanctions have been lifted.
There will also be a monetary windfall for the Iranian Government as it will finally have access to some USD 100 billion in assets that were frozen and off limits.
However, the lifting of the embargo means that Iran is now free to ramp up its output of Crude Oil. Presently, Iran pumps out 1.1 million barrels of oil on a daily basis for export. Now that the embargo has been lifted, Iran is now free to use its spare capacity to increase exports by 500,000 barrels per day. Once the infrastructure is in place and if customers can be found Iran plans to further increase production by a further 500,000 barrels per day.
With Iran increasing production the price of crude which is already under significant pressure could be set to fall further.
In the past, Saudi Arabia has been able to maintain its market share by squeezing high cost of extraction businesses such as the US Shale producers. However, such a policy would be difficult to implement against Iran for a variety of reasons.
Iran enjoys a relatively low cost of production which will enable it to ride out any further price shocks. Furthermore, the Iran government is committed for political reasons to increase production as this would be in line with its geopolitical ambitions of confronting the Saudi’s over the leading role in Syria and Iraq.
Crude has been used before as a political lever. One only needs to look back to 1973 oil embargo that was imposed due to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Once again, it would appear that simple rules of demand and supply will be distorted as the political imperative takes centre stage as Riyadh and Tehran fight over regional supremacy.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH118012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0992
Target 2: 1.0820
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 1.0830
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH118012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4361
Target 2: 1.4169
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 1.4450
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH118012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 117.64
Target 2: 116.35
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.01
Daily control level: 118.30
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH118012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0103
Target 2: 0.9953
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.0060
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH18012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4639
Target 2: 1.4471
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133
Daily control level: 1.4325
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH118012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.6925
Target 2: 0.6832
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 0.7005
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH118012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1104.00
Target 2: 1077.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.31
Daily control level: 1096.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CLG6H118012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 30.00
Target 2: 27.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.7593
Daily control level: 31.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 19.01.2016
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD is retesting the upper limits of the downward trending channel this morning.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0895 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0837, which is the 2nd support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0798, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today together with the 3rd pivot support level, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0922, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0969, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD is recovering after the UK inflation data indicated some improvement this morning.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4267 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.4353, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4384, which is the 3rd resistance level, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4267, which is today’s Pivot Point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4211, being the 1st pivot support of today.
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is trading higher this morning, after the pair reached a one-year low yesterday.
USDJPY needs to hold above 117.12 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 118.24, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 118.39 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance, could likely take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 116.95, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 115.5748, being the USDJPY 1st intermediate pivot support level, could occur next.
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continue to keep the upward momentum this morning.
USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0041 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0113, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0150, which is Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0041, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 1.0010 could follow next.
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4547 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.4372, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4548, which is the pivot point of the pair for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4611, being the 1st pivot resistance of the pair.
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has breached the top of the downward trend channel this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6936 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.6971, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7014 could likely follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6874, being the pairs Pivot Point of today. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6828, being the pair’s Average True Range downside projection, could take place next.
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold seems to be unable to keep the upward momentum at the moment.
Gold needs to hold below 1089.77 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1084.10, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1104.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1082.11, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level.
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price continues on the way up, after it bounced off the top of the downtrend channel yesterday.
The commodity needs to hold above 30.18 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 31.52, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 31.87, which is 3rd pivot resistance level of the commodity, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.81, being the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.01.2016
There was an understanding that the Bank of England would either raise interest rates at the same time or the very least would follow in step with Washington policymakers at the Federal Reserve.
However in a speech given yesterday, the Bank of England Governor painted a depressing picture of the United Kingdom and global economy.
The US and the UK economies are very similar however Mark Carney has now thrown into question from where the growth and inflation that the FOMC are seeing will come from.
Mark Carney has in effect implied that Janet Yellen and her colleagues have made a policy error in increasing interest rates in December.
Furthermore, far from moving in step with the dot plot that proposes four US interest rates in 2016, the Bank of England has now totally discounted the possibility of a UK interest rate rise during the course of this year.
The FOMC in December moved to nominalize the interest rate environment just in case inflation and wage growth got out of hand.
Yesterday’s speech by the Bank of England Governor has now created a two-way bet on the outlook of the global economy.
Was Yellen prudent in her policy to hike interest rates or is Carney’s cautious wait and see approach more in tune with the realities of this much interconnected global economy.
The fallout from yesterday’s speech sent the British Pound tumbling to lows not seen since 2009 and there are no signs yet that the bottom has been reached. On a trade-weighted basis, the depreciation in the Pound over past 6 months stands at 7%.
2016 thus far has been a year of market volatility. The New Year always gives us the opportunity to reassess our lives, our plans and our situations. Back on January 4, the market had priced in a UK rate increase for November 2016. However, yesterday’s not so pleasant reassessment of the world economy has seen the markets push back the first rate increase until the middle of 2017.
In the space of just two weeks, what was thought to be the accepted course of interest rate policy over the next twelve months has been completely changed.
However, will the economic realities in 2017 allow the Bank of England to move ahead and increase rates? What if we do not see an improvement in CPI and wage data.
Mr Carney may be hoping that the weak pound will boost inflation and stimulate exports but so far, this has not been the case. On the contrary, inflation still is under considerable downward pressure and fears of deflation persist.
The problem is that the fight to get to the bottom in a currency war just reallocates deflationary pressure to the country that has the strongest currency.
If devaluation is the only tool left available to policy makers and with question marks over quantitative easing which has plainly has not worked as expected, what is next for world’s central bankers?
What is required is sustainable global growth and this will mean that some tough choices have to be made.
Is it a case that we reassess what is meant to be normal growth and lower our expectations or do the world leaders take the bold move to address the obvious problems of a global economy that suffer from overcapacity and an addiction to debt?
Harking back to the spring and summer months of last year, one politician was thrown into the global spotlight. He is, of course, Yanis Varoufakis the former Greek Finance Minister.
Maybe just maybe, this rebellious yet likeable chap got it right. We have had QE and we are now entering a currency war. However in this interconnected world, we need courageous and interconnected reform and policies that cure the ills and not just massage the symptoms.
EURUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH120012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1009
Target 2: 1.0857
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.0850
GBPUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH120012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4255
Target 2: 1.4056
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122
Daily control level: 1.4350
USDJPY
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH120012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 118.24
Target 2: 116.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.11
Daily control level: 118.15
USDCHF
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH120012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0098
Target 2: 0.9930
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 0.9955
USDCAD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH120012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4686
Target 2: 1.4517
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136
Daily control level: 1.4420
AUDUSD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH120012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.6947
Target 2: 0.6820
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133
Daily control level: 0.6835
GOLD
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH120012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1102.00
Target 2: 1079.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.20
Daily control level: 1096.00
OIL
(http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CLG6H120012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 29.20
Target 2: 26.74
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83
Daily control level: 30.30
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 21.01.2016
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD is has broken the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel this morning.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0913 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0852, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0795, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0951, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0975, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2001GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has once again tried to retest the six-year low the pair reached yesterday.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4177 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4078, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4042, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4230, which is today’s 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4271, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today.
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2001USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY continues to decline, reaching a new year low yesterday.
USDJPY needs to hold below 116.85 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 116.30, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 116.00 being the pair’s psychological support level, could likely take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.77, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 118.56, being the USDJPY 2nd pivot resistance level, could occur next.
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is ranging in indecision before deciding on the move further.
USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0028 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0095, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0132, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0028, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 0.9998 could follow next.
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4555 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.4370, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4338 support line.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4583, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4771, being the 2nd pivot resistance of the pair.
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD continues to range after the pair breached the top of the downward trend channel this Tuesday.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6885 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.6982, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7000 could likely follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6849, being the pairs the Daily Average True Range downside projection level. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6788, could take place next.
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold seems to be unable to keep the upward momentum at the moment.
Gold needs to hold above 1099.07 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1113.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1121.00, which is the 2nd pivot support resistance.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1087.00, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price slid further down yesterday.
The commodity needs to hold below 28.67 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 27.49, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 26.91, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.64, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.01.2016
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD returned to trade within the borders of the downward trending channel formed earlier on 4 hours timescale.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0857 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0793, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0761, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0896, being the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0940, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD continues to recover the losses the pair made at the beginning of this week.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4183 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.4332, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4404, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot resistance level, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4182, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4101, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has breached the top of the downtrend trending channel this morning.
USDJPY needs to hold above 117.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 118.75, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.51 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level, could likely take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.32, which is the pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 116.83, being the USDJPY 1st pivot support level, could occur next.
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is trading higher this morning, with the pair continuing to observe the uptrend channel limits.
USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0076 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0142, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0169, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0076, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 1.0007 could follow next.
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high on Wednesday.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4344 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.4137, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4031 support line.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4398, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4461, being the 1st pivot resistance level of the pair.
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD continues trade higher this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6963 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7051, being the 1st pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.8000 could likely follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6920, being the pairs the Daily Average True Range downside projection level. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6900, could take place next.
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold is slightly retracing from the highs the commodity made last Wednesday.
Gold needs to breach above 1099.22 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1106.00, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1114.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1085.00, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price is recovering sharply since last afternoon.
The commodity needs to hold above 29.51 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial downside target is 31.86, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.57, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.51, being the commodity’s pivot point of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.01.2016
This morning at 9:00 London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers.
This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.
The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.
Due to the size and breadth of this report, the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.
The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.
Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.
The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.
The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight increase to 108.5, as compared to the previous number of 108.7.
A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.
The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic bufsiness outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.
The recent ECB statement to the worlds gathered financial press was seen as very accommodating and dovish. The ECB President, Mr Mario Draghi said that he and his colleagues were in agreement and would do what it takes to ensure that Eurozone inflation meets the 2% target and that the employment outlook improves significantly. Mr Draghi used the phrase “No Limits” to reiterate how seriously the ECB is committed to these twin goals. If necessary, the European Central Bank is expected to announce additional measures as early as March. As the German Ifo survey contributes to the data that the ECB samples, today’s release will have added significance.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH125012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0896
Target 2: 1.0710
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.0920
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH125012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4382
Target 2: 1.4179
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128
Daily control level: 1.4245
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH125012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 119.60
Target 2: 117.66
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.15
Daily control level: 116.40
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH125012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0234
Target 2: 1.0066
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.0010
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH125012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4287
Target 2: 1.4006
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157
Daily control level: 1.4545
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH125012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7087
Target 2: 0.6923
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105
Daily control level: 0.6870
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH125012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1112.00
Target 2: 1086.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.52
Daily control level: 1091.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CLH6H125012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 33.96
Target 2: 30.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.97
Daily control level: 27.45
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 26.01.2016
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning, hinting that a move lower might be ahead.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0830 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0805, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0755, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0898, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0943, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD continues to move lower after the pair bounced off the top of the downward trending channel yesterday.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4277 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4121, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4100, which is a psychological support level, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4297, which the 1st pivot resistance point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4329, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has bounced off the top of the downward trending channel, signalling a move higher might be ahead.
USDJPY needs to hold above 118.43 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 118.93, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.11 being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could likely take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.74, which 2nd pivot support level. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 117.17, being the USDJPY Daily Average True Range downside projection level, could occur next.
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is retesting a two-month high this morning, after an unsuccessful attempt yesterday.
USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0139 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0196, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0234, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0097, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. The extension further to 1.0066 could follow next.
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD took a break from a sharp decline off the recently made thirteen-year high.
USDCAD needs to hold above 1.4235 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.4346, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4427, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4151, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target for today.
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is trying to trade higher this morning as the oil prices are rebounding.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6977 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7025, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7060 could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6895, being the pair’s 2nd pivot support of today. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6850, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection level.
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold reached a two-month high this morning.
Gold needs to hold above 1104.44 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1123.00, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level together with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1099.99, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price is making one more recovery attempt this morning.
The commodity needs to break above 31.10 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 31.50, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 33.13 could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 39.13, being the commodity’s 1st pivot support of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.01.2016
It is believed that the United States economy is in a process of recuperating and heading to a growth phase. Inflation according to the Federal Reserve is most likely to increase during the coming year. Or at least, deflationary pressures will wane as wage inflation begins to finally kick in and catch up with what have been encouraging employment numbers.
Also, it could be assumed that Oil prices are close to bottoming out and this could begin to stimulate demand as businesses and the consumer takes advantage of cheap petroleum.
This could eventually lead to the supply gap being finally closed and therefore, feed into the FOMC’s requirement which sees inflation approaching the 2% target and, in turn, see growth pick up.
The head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen will still be concerned that incoming data will derail her plans that according to the dot plot will lead to four interest rate hikes in 2016.
Yesterday Yellen received some good news with the Conference board publishing encourage Consumer Confidence data. There will be a further indication of the state of the US economy when on Friday when the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the latest quarter on quarter GDP data.
In light of the mixed data and with a market that simply does not believe the Federal Reserve will stick to its planned path for interest rates for the remainder of the year the issue of how Janet Yellen delivers the message becomes of paramount importance.
The form is not good for the FOMC. Only back in September 2015, the Federal Reserve missed an opportunity to increase interest rates when the market expected this to happen.
The overly dovish sentiment that Janet Yellen gave had the markets reappraising the state of the US economic outlook. The FOMC’s action caused a crisis of confidence amongst market participants.
The FOMC wants to avoid what happen last autumn as any signs of weakness or regret would be interpreted that the Feds Fund rate increase in December may have been a mistake.
Sticking to their guns and being committed to a view that their decision making is correct should be applauded, however, the jury is still out on the Federal Reserve’s handling of the great recession of 2008 and the fallout and effects that followed.
Just like the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Federal Reserve could have got their timing wrong and may need to give themselves some room for flexibility.
Being wedded to a policy, come what may of 4 rate increases during 2016 could look very foolish if this leads to the US economy being dragged back down into a painful recession.
The FOMC is hoping that the forthcoming data begins to stack up and is in line with their future dot plot for interest rates. However, it would seem prudent for the FOMC to make the market aware that there is room to manoeuvre if the carefully laid plans are derailed by the economic realities.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH127012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0951
Target 2: 1.0768
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 1.0875
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH127012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4465
Target 2: 1.4212
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132
Daily control level: 1.4170
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH127012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 119.21
Target 2: 117.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.10
Daily control level: 117.60
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH126012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0252
Target 2: 1.1008
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 1.0115
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH127012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4262
Target 2: 1.3957
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0171
Daily control level: 1.4335
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH127012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7097
Target 2: 0.6944
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 0.6915
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH127012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1133.00
Target 2: 1106.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.66
Daily control level: 1109.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CLH6H127012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 32.49
Target 2: 29.01
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.09
Daily control level: 29.15
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.01.2016
The S&P 500 and Dow30 indices fell more than 1% on the release of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and statement.
External crises, notably the issue of the ongoing Chinese contraction still weighs heavily on the markets. Furthermore, the markets have to deal with continuing worries about the direction of the price of crude Oil. There are fears that the move of WTI above the US$30.00 level will turn out to be a brief rally and that the downtrend will resume in short order.
In its statement, the Federal moved from its previous position of being in a “wait and see mode” to one where it is “closely monitoring” economic developments. The Federal Reserve reiterated its modest shift in its stance by saying. “The committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labour market and inflation”.
Although the statement was not as dovish as some market participants would have liked, its change of stance has gone some way to addressing the concerns of investors.
Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Reserve have given a nod to investors that global financial and stability issues are being worked into its models for employment and inflation forecasting. However, the drop in the major equity indices would seem to indicate that the FOMC’s action was not enough.
The fall in the indices could be seen as a market over-reaction as it is not obvious what the Federal Reserve could do at the moment other than telling the market that it is monitoring the developing situation from the sidelines and will be ready to act if necessary.
What we did not get yesterday from the FOMC was a surprise increase in the Fed Funds rate. The strong US Dollar has restricted growth and exports and with GDP still below 2%, it was always a very unlikely that the Federal Reserve would move now.
Yesterday’s statement portrays an FOMC that is frustrated by the lack of solid progress that is being made towards a the United States economic lift-off. These concerns will continue to keep the FOMC dependent on what it hopes is an improvement of incoming data.
This could lead to the Federal Reserve playing out a repeat scenario of 2015 where the next interest rate increase when it does happen, will be delayed until the end of this year. This means that the 4 increase dot plot forecast goes out the window.
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH128012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0966
Target 2: 1.0812
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 1.0815
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH128012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4369
Target 2: 1.4122
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level: 1.4170
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH128012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 119.55
Target 2: 117.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06
Daily control level: 117.95
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH128012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0230
Target 2: 1.0086
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 1.0115
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH128012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4246
Target 2: 1.3945
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0172
Daily control level: 1.4335
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH128012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7112
Target 2: 0.6951
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 0.6915
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH128012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1132.00
Target 2: 1110.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.41
Daily control level: 1114.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CLH6H128012016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 33.95
Target 2: 30.12
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.14
Daily control level: 30.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 29.01.2016
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD remains to range this morning, among the recently high market volatility.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0926 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0856, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0827, being the 2nd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0974, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.1004, which is the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of today.
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new two-week high yesterday.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4332 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4271, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4155, which is the 2nd pivot support, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4433, which the 1st pivot resistance of today. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4474, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has breached the uptrend daily target, as BoJ decided to proceed with further monetary easing this morning and cut the interest rate further.
USDJPY needs to hold above 118.73 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 122.00, which is the pair’s next psychological resistance point.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.00 support level.
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has once again bounced off the top of the downtrend channel after the pair reached a new two-month high yesterday.
USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0138 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0117, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0235, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0136, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. The extension further to 1.0101 could follow next.
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is has bounced off the bottom of the daily uptrend channel this morning.
USDCAD needs to above 1.4032 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.4150, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4207, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3942, being the 1st pivot support level of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has reached a new high of this year.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7071 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7172, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7223 could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7036, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level.
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold is retracing from the two-month high.
Gold needs to break below 1117.35 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1103.00, being the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension towards 1103.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could occur next.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1123.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901OILUSDH4-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price is retesting the top of the downward trend channel this morning.
The commodity needs to hold below 33.95 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 31.78, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 31.78, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 35.60, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection target.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 01.02.2016
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0862 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0905, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1000, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0759, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD continues to range above the recently breached downtrend channel.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4267 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.4379, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4530, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4115, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY continues to trade higher, following the BoJ decision to raise the interest rate last Friday.
USDJPY needs to hold above 122.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 122.30, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 123.63, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.27, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.
USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0203 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0286, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0327, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0164, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today.
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.
USDCAD needs to above 1.4014 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.4145, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4213, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3920, being the 1st pivot support level of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is retracing after the pair reached a new high of this year last Friday.
AUDUSD needs to break above 0.7093 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7144, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7176 could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7010, being the 2nd pivot support of today.
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold is aiming to retest the two-month high.
Gold needs to hold above 1114.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1129.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1131.57, which the commodity’s 3rd pivot resistance level could occur next.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1109.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.
The commodity needs to break above 34.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 35.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 36.01, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 32.59, being the commodity’s 2nd pivot support level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 02.02.2016
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel once again, continuing the ranging pattern for the third week in a row.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0870 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0976, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1026, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0824, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the daily downtrend channel this morning.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4268 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4282, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4151, which is the 2nd pivot support, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4528, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is retracing from one-month high the pair reached last Friday.
USDJPY needs to break above 121.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 121.55, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 123.84, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 119.83, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.
USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0200 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0261, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0295, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0151, being the 1st pivot support level of today.
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.
USDCAD needs to above 1.3971 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.4116, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4190, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3882, being the 1st pivot support level of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is retesting the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel.
AUDUSD needs to break above 0.7091 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7091, being the Pivot Point of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7165, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today, could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7013, being the 2nd pivot support of today.
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold is aiming to retracing from a two-month high, which the metal reached this morning.
Gold needs to hold below 1124.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1115.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1109.78, which the commodity’s 2nd pivot support level could occur next.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1139.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel yesterday.
The commodity needs to hold below 32.91 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 30.61, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 29.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 03.02.2016.
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD continues to trade higher after the pair bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel on Monday. The range pattern, nevertheless still remains at place.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.013 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0969, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1002, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today and also coinciding with 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0843, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD is making aa new three-month high this morning.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4393 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.4544, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4579, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4282, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY continues to retrace from one-month high the pair reached last Friday. In addition, the pair has also breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning.
USDJPY needs to hold below 120.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 118.74, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 118.30, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could follow next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.27, which is the Pivot Point level of today.
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has bounced off the top of the upward trend channel.
USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0191 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0136, being the 3rd pivot support level of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0108, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 1.0214, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.
USDCAD needs to below 1.4023 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.3966, being the 1st pivot support level of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3925, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4110, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has broken the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel. The pair is currently trying to reconfirm the breach.
AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7066 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7004, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6947, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today, could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7104, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold is remaining to concentrate at the two-month high, which it reached at the beginning of this week.
Gold needs to hold above 1127.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1136.00, being today’s 2nd pivot resistance. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1139.00, which the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could occur next.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1115.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302OILUSDH4-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price is recovering after it has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel on Monday.
The commodity needs to hold above 31.16 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 32.91, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 33.81, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.20, being the 2nd pivot support of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.02.2016
Bank of England rate decision day
Later today, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. There seems a little possibility that rates will be increased today. In fact, recent comments by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Mark Carney have been dovish and market friendly.
Mr Carney has sighted the pessimistic growth global outlook, the collapse in commodity prices and less than encouraging wage and consumer inflation as reasons to put off increasing interest rates in 2016.
Far from being convinced of the inevitability of a rate increase happening once data begins to improve, some market commentators are now openly talking up the merits of the Bank of England reversing course and reducing the Official Bank Rate from its present level of 0.50%.
In today’s Super Thursday statements, the markets will be looking for a change in the mood of the Bank of England’s commentary. Will Mr Mark Carney now move to downgrading the previous projections for wages, employment and inflation? Furthermore, will we see a seismic shock as the markets have to deal with one or more members of the Monetary Policy Committee shifting their stance from hold to negative on interest rates?
The Bank of England does have some room to manoeuvre as the current overnight rate in relative terms is high when compared to say, Eurozone, Japanese, and Swiss interest rates. Therefore, the Bank of England has some way to go before it even has to contemplate moving towards negative rates.
The question however is, will cutting an already low level of interest rates had any real effect other than stoking the fire under the housing bubble. Japanese business has enjoyed low levels of interest cost for a considerable time without any noticeable change investment.
Fiscal measures could be reintroduced as was the case during the great recession of 2008. However, the massive stimulus programmes that were initiated by the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England have not brought the expected results.
The central banks of the world are fast running out of tools which they can use to stimulate their economies. A race to the bottom in a currency war is not a real solution.
It would appear that the coming months will be pivotal for Mr Carney and his counterparts at the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. The time is ripe for better solutions rather than more of the same. The problem for the decision makers is that there are no obvious alternatives.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDH104022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1171
Target 2: 1.1014
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.0900
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDH1040202016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4732
Target 2: 1.4436
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0158
Daily control level: 1.4370
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYH104022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 119.01
Target 2: 116.85
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.29
Daily control level: 120.15
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFH10402016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0234
Target 2: 0.9981
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 1.0197
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADH104022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3915
Target 2: 1.3599
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0187
Daily control level: 1.4110
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDH10402016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7261
Target 2: 0.7081
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099
Daily control level: 0.7000
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDH104022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1153.00
Target 2: 1130.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.49
Daily control level: 1121.00
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6H104022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 33.50
Target 2: 30.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.36
Daily control level: 34.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 05.02.2016
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD shot higher for the second consecutive day. Due to the NFP release the volatility is expected to be high this afternoon.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1170 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.1289, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. the 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1442, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1000, being the pair’s 2nd pivot support level of today.
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD is retracing from a three-week high, which the pair reached yesterday.
GBPUSD needs to break above 1.4594 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.4715, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4798, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4426, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY continues to retrace from one-month high the pair reached last Friday.
USDJPY needs to hold below 117.17 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 115.60, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 114.40, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot support level, could follow next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 118.88, which is the 2nd pivot resistance of today.
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF declined lower after it reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel yesterday.
USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9974 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 0.98521, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9820, which is the 2nd pivot support level of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 1.00027, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD continues to plunge after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.
USDCAD needs to below 1.3729 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.3570, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3503, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3906, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7197 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7275, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7333, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7108, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold shot to a three-month high as the USD Dollar weakened further.
Gold needs to hold above 1150.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1166.00, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1179.73, which the commodity’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could occur next.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1143.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.
The commodity needs to hold below 32.26 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 32.01, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.54, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 35.12, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08-02-2016
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDH108022016ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning EURUSD has traded in a volatile manner as the price action attempts to break out and break down from its opening days range.
The Daily Pivot at the 1.1170 levels has so far offered strong resistance to further upside momentum.
We are this afternoon monitoring a continuation of the move towards S1 at the 1.1088 level.
However, EURUSD first needs to breach the current price structure of the upward pointing Linear Regression Channel
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDH108022016ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning GBPUSD initial attempted to break higher from its opening range as the price action traded above its Daily Pivot level at the 1.4509 level.
However, the progression towards the R1 at the 1.4567 did not materialize.
Subsequently, GBPUSD has traded lower as the price action broke back down through the Daily Pivot and sliced through S1 at the 1.4428 level.
This afternoon, we are monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move lower towards the S2 that is found at 1.4370 level.
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYH108022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDJPY traded higher from the get-go as it moved away from the Daily Pivot level of 116.83.
However, USDJPY found strong resistance at the R1 which is at the 117.39.
Subsequently, USDJPY has reversed course and is now trading under the Daily Pivot.
This afternoon we are monitoring the price action for a possible test of S1 which is found at the 116.24 level.
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFH1080220106.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDCHF has traded around the Daily Pivot that is found at the 0.9921 level.
Presently, USDCHF is now testing the R1 at the 0.9962 level and the upper level of the downward sloping linear regression channel.
This afternoon, I am monitoring USDCHF for a continuation of the move towards the 1.0000 significant number which also coincides with today’s Average True Range projection.
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADH108022016ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning USDCAD has traded in a small range with the price action initially testing the Daily Pivot that is found at the 1.3847 level,
I am this afternoon monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move higher.
A breach of the downward sloping linear regression channel could see USDCAD test R1 at is found at the 1.3985 level.
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDH108022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning AUDUSD broke above its opening range bit was not able to sustain a move above the Daily Pivot that is found at the 0.7111 level.
We are however monitoring the price action for a further test of the Daily Pivot as the downward correction failed to trade beneath prior swing lows at the 0.7073 and 0.7052 levels.
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDH108022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold this morning found significant support at the daily Pivot that is located at the 1164.00 level.
The price action has subsequently traded higher as Gold has moved above from the prior day’s high at the 1174.00 level.
I am this afternoon monitoring the price action for a test of R1 at the 1183.00 level.
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6H108022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning Oil attempted to break higher from its opening range but stiff resistance at the Daily Pivot which is found at the 31.30 level repelled this attempt.
Subsequently, Oil has traded lower as the price action broke under S1 at the 30.25 level.
This afternoon, we are monitoring Oil for a possible attempt of S2 that is found at the 29.53 level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.02.2016
Today at 3:00 PM London time, the Federal Reserve, Chairwoman, Mrs Janet Yellen will give testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.
This hearing takes place during uncertain times for both the financial markets and world economy. On Monday, the news that CreditSights In., had questioned the German banking colossus, Deutsche Bank’s ability to pay up on its bond obligations in 2017. This report helped to contribute to a meltdown in global indices values.
Although the senior management of Deutsche Bank was quick to issue statements that denied this analyst report, the damage had already been done. The news that highlighted the potential woes of a bank that is so key to Germany’s and Europe economic future has now put the spotlight back on Europe’s financial system.
The idea that we are about to revisit the dark days of 2008/2009 is a worrying spectre. Especially as confidence in Europe’s periphery is still fragile as Greece and Portugal once again returning back to the media and market spotlight.
Italy continues to struggle as it tries to break from the stranglehold of a deep recession and the move back into patchy growth. We do have news shortly from Istat which will publish the latest Italian Industrial Production number. However, following yesterday’s horrid publication by Destatis on German Industrial Production, the head of the European Central Bank will be looking over his shoulder and will be hoping for some positive news from his homeland.
Back to this afternoon’s event in Washington, Janet Yellen has the decision to take on the tone of the testimony. The FOMC has two key mandates which are to ensure price stability and a healthy employment outlook. Although the to-and-throw of short-term movements in the financial markets should not be of a concern, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman could address this subject during today’s key speech.
Of course, a shift to a dovish tone would undoubtedly go some way in giving comfort to investors who have seen the value of their equity holdings shrink since the beginning of 2016. Especially as the falls in equity value is highlighting the strain within the global banking system.
During today’s testimony, the market will be listening to the weighting that is given to the two key FOMC mandates. If Mrs Yellen sticks to the hawkish line that the labour market is strong and that economic weakness being a short-term phenomenon, them one could expect to see a continued move lower in equity values and the US Dollar gathering some respite.
However, according to market pricing the probability of the Federal Reserve dot plot that has forecast four rate increases during 2016 will just not happen. It would seem that the Federal Reserve will be lucky if it can force one rate hike in December. For sure March interest rate increase looks like it is off the table.
To end, the Italian Industrial Production number has just been reported as -0.7%. The forecast was for an improvement to 0.3%.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3010022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1400
Target 2: 1.1180
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111
Daily control level: 1.1160
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3010022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4630
Target 2: 1.4315
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0160
Daily control level: 1.4370
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3010022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 116.55
Target 2: 113.65
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47
Daily control level: 115.60
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3010022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9825
Target 2: 0.9620
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 0.9980
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3010022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4040
Target 2: 1.3690
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0176
Daily control level: 1.3980
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3010022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7140
Target 2: 0.6995
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075
Daily control level: 0.6970
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3010022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1204.00
Target 2: 1178.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.79
Daily control level: 1185.75
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6M3010022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 30.00
Target 2: 27.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.37
Daily control level: 30.75
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 11.02.2016
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD is trading higher this morning as the US dollar is weakening.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1253 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.1400, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1498, being 3rd intermediate pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1170, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the downtrend channel this morning.
GBPUSD needs to break below 1.4515 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4360, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4318, which is the 3rd pivot support, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4585, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has breached the Daily Average True range downside target this morning, as the pair has reached a new one-year low.
USDJPY needs to hold below 113.89 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 110.41, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 110.00, which is the pair’s next major psychological support level, could follow next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 113.89, which is the Pivot Point of today.
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF declined to a new two-month low this morning.
USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9753 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 0.9630, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9578, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9753, being the Pivot Point of today.
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD has recovered slightly this morning.
USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3914 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.4100, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3140, which is the 3rd pivot intermediate resistance level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3829, being the 1st pivot support level of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is declining lower this morning, after it proved unsuccessful to return trading within the upward trend channel.
AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7085 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.6990, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6958, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today, could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7133, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102GOLDH4-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold shot to a new six-month high this morning.
Gold needs to hold above 1191.91 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1132.00, being the pair’s next long term pivot resistance. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1255.00, could occur next.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1191.91, which is the metal’s Daily Pivot Point level of today.
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102OILUSDH4-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price has declined to a new three-week low this morning.
The commodity needs to hold below 29.67 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 27.91, being the 2nd pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 27.01, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 30.31, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 12.02.2016
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel this morning.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1323 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.1200, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1168, being 3rd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1440, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the newly created uptrend channel this morning.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4473 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.4640, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4744, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4384, being the 1st pivot support level of today.
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is consolidating this morning, after the pair has reached a new one-year low yesterday.
USDJPY needs to hold below 112.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 111.00, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 109.71, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot support level, could follow next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 114.00, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has slightly recovered after the pair reached a new two-month low yesterday.
USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9714 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 0.9830, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9870, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9667, being the 1st pivot support of today.
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD continues to range this morning.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3944 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.3811, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3760, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4006, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is continues to range below the recently breached uptrend channel.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7080 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7215, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7000, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level together with a strong psycological support.
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold shot to a one-year high as market uncertainty persists.
Gold needs to hold above 1234.64 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1267.00, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1275.00, could occur next.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1225.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price is rebounding from a three-week low this morning.
The commodity needs to hold above 29.19 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 30.53, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.02, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 28.70, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 15.02.2016
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has breached the bottom of the uptrend channel on Friday.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1266 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.1111, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1080, being 3rd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1266, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502GBPUSDH4-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has once again bounced off the bottom of the newly created uptrend channel this morning.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4504 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.4565, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4657, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4377, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has breached the top of the downtrend channel as the pair is recovering from last week’s one-year low.
USDJPY needs to hold above 112.80 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 115.07, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 115.82, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level, could follow next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.80, which is today’s Pivot Point of the pair.
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF continues to recover after the pair breached the bottom of the downtrend channel last thursday.
USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9755 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 0.9878, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9900.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9755, being the Pivot Point of today.
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is retesting the bottom of the daily uptrend channel.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3874 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.3722, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3679, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3935, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD continues to range below the recently breached uptrend channel.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7100 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7208, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7100, being the pair’s pivot point of today.
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold continues to decline after the metal reached one-year high last week.
Gold needs to hold below 1239.00 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial upside target is 1200.00, being the pair’s next psychological support level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1180.00, could occur next.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1239.30, which is the metal’s Pivot Point of today.
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price continues to strengthen this morning.
The commodity needs to hold above 30.77 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 32.99, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.32, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.82, being the 1st pivot support level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.02.2016
News that the Russian and Saudi Oil Ministers have agreed to hold talks about cutting Oil production later today has sent Light Sweet Crude rallying above the US$31.00 per barrels in early morning trading.
Today’s talks are due to take place in Doha and have been brokered by the Qatari Oil Minister. This closed door event should resemble a poker match between two evenly matched and very competitive players as both participants will do what they can to minimise concessions.
That the Venezuelan Oil Minister will also be in attendance could be positive in pushing the talks to a successive outcome. Venezuela has suffered more than most from the collapse in the price of crude as the Government of this Latin American country struggles to maintain budget obligations. Therefore, it is in its interest to push a deal through.
Although there has been talk of a deal before, this appears to be the first serious meeting between the world’s big two oil producers. The timing of this meeting comes at a crucial juncture in Middle East politics with events in Syria threatening to redraw the geostrategic map.
The Russian military involvement in Syria and a Saudi Arabian threat to intervene military opens up the spectre of an armed clash between these two countries. Therefore, it is rather fortuitous that both the Governments have decided to open up a channel of communication.
The Saudi Government may feel that as it holds the strongest hand might decide that it does not want to comprise by cutting its own production. The Russians, however, have technical issues that restrict its ability cut oil production as the harsh Siberian climate could lead to wells being lost.
An agreement to introduce production quotas will need the Saudi’s to move away from their current policy that requires all producers agree on crude production limits. However with Iran now freed from international sanctions the prospect of increased production from this country will make the likelihood of reaching an agreement a difficult undertaking.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3016022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1280
Target 2: 1.1025
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128
Daily control level: 1.1270
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3016022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4595
Target 2: 1.4270
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0162
Daily control level: 1.4530
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3016022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 116.30
Target 2: 112.85
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.74
Daily control level: 111.60
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3016022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9980
Target 2: 0.9755
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112
Daily control level: 0.9720
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3016022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4000
Target 2: 1.3670
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0165
Daily control level: 1.3850
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3016022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7280
Target 2: 0.7070
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 0.7125
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3016022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1230.00
Target 2: 1185.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 22.89
Daily control level: 1245.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6M3016022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 32.00
Target 2: 28.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.13
Daily control level: 29.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.02.2016
The US, Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will today publish the much anticipated minutes of its last meeting.
These minutes are a detailed account of last Federal Reserve meeting. As such, this publication provides to market participants and financial media some colour on the backdrop of the meeting. These minutes allows traders to gain insights on how individual FOMC members are positioned with respect to interest rates as we approach the next Federal Reserve meeting that takes place in March.
We expect that this publication will portray rather balanced tone were the bias for tightening is limited by the current uncertainty that has gripped the market.
The minutes of the December meeting presented a united picture in terms of how the committee members unanimously voted for a rate increase. However, some members of the FOMC did voice concerns that this decision to hike the Fed Funds rate may have been premature.
Market volatility is bound to increase just prior and during the publication. However, what will be of interest will be to see if the dissenting voices within the Federal Reserve are getting stronger and if other members of the committee who previously backed Decembers rate increase now appear to be regretting their decision.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3017022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1270
Target 2: 1.1015
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127
Daily control level: 1.1190
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3017022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4470
Target 2: 1.4135
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0166
Daily control level: 1.4515
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3017022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 115.90
Target 2: 112.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.80
Daily control level: 114.90
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3017022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9995
Target 2: 0.9775
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111
Daily control level: 0.9845
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3017022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4025
Target 2: 1.3700
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0164
Daily control level: 1.3705
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM301702216-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7210
Target 2: 0.7010
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 0.7120
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3017022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1224.00
Target 2: 1177.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 23.42
Daily control level: 1217.55
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6M3017022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 31.00
Target 2: 27.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.06
Daily control level: 31.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.02.2016
Yesterday, the Unite States, Federal Reserve published the minutes of January’s interest rate decision.
It was expected that the FOMC would take into account the events since the December interest rate rise and this was what the message the markets received.
The FOMC minutes, on the whole, gave us no surprises with the transcripts being more or less in line with last week’s testimony by the Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen to the House Financial Services Committee.
Fed Officials saw the events since December have increased the Downside risk. The inflation outlook remained uncertain and external factors are a continued source of concern with the confusing situation in China hindering the FOMC’s policy decision making.
Furthermore, the FOMC Expect inflation to be lower for a long time due to the depressed price of crude oil. The FOMC was of the opinion that oil and an improvement in the US economy could help bring inflation back to target but was not sure how long the downside risks will last for.
The strength of the US Dollar was discussed and according to the minutes with concerns that the Green Backs inflated value would hinder a recovery in the manufacturing sector.
Of all the concerns the FOMC highlighted the high volatility in the financial markets as the biggest issue and could lead to an amplification of the downside risks.
The Federal Reserved based the December increase on data that indicated that the job market is strong and that the expectation that inflation will increase.
The landscape since the December rate hike has changed dramatically. What is certain is that the FOMC would not have moved to increase interest rates in December if these events had happened in November.
The minutes portrayed an FOMC that is not only data dependent but also unsure of the trend of the data.
This leads us nicely to the forecasts made by the Federal Reserve which according to their now discredited dot plot predicted that there will be four interest rate increases in 2016. Although the FOMC have not admitted defeat, the dot plot is no longer being mentioned and the idea that the FOMC will abide by their prediction has been priced out by the market.
As if history is about to repeat itself and very much like the back end of 2015 the market has increased the odd of a December increase.
Such a move will only happen if the data fits.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3018022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1245
Target 2: 1.1005
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120
Daily control level: 1.1180
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3018022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4450
Target 2: 1.4140
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0154
Daily control level: 1.4340
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3018022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 115.65
Target 2: 112.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.64
Daily control level: 114.85
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3018022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0030
Target 2: 0.9815
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 0.9845
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3018022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3840
Target 2: 1.3505
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0169
Daily control level: 1.3910
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3018022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7280
Target 2: 0.7100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 0.7080
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3018022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1232.00
Target 2: 1185.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 23.36
Daily control level: 1217.55
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6M3018022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 31.00
Target 2: 27.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.13
Daily control level: 31.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.02.2016
This morning, the British Prime Minister, Mr David Cameron will hold intensive meetings with other European Union leaders.
The discussions have been portrayed as a high-stakes meeting which will define not only Britain’s relationship with the European Union but also the success or failure of the whole European project.
Mr Cameron has to return from the meetings with an agreement that he can be presented to the right of the Conservative Party and also to a British public that is becoming increasingly dissolution by the European Union.
The British Prime Minister has focussed on two main areas which he feels concessions can be extracted from the UK’s European partners.
These being the explosive subject of migrant welfare and the protection of the City of London’s dominance as a global centre for finance.
The whole European Union Migrant issues is a very popular story with the British tabloid press. However, in reality, the cost to the British taxpayer is negligible. Migration from countries like Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have benefited the country as young and enthusiastic new citizens have integrated into the fabric of the country and have contributed to the economy.
Mr Cameron, however, wants concessions which will appease Conservative voters who have been enticed the message that is being delivered from UKIP that anything and everything European is bad for Britain.
A deal on migration will probably be fudged through but this will be much to the annoyance of Eastern European leaders who will argue that a deal to limit welfare payments to their former citizens will go against the ethos of the European Union’s project.
On the question of over regulation of the City of London’s financial institutions, there does need to be a review of the current legislation so as to ensure it is fit for purpose. However, it has only been eight years since we had a financial meltdown that was caused in part by a lack of regulation. Therefore, it is difficult to see the British Prime Minister getting his own way and to a degree, we should be thankful that the big financial institutions are not allowed to do as they please.
London’s role as a global financial centre will only grow over the coming years. Attempts by Paris and Frankfurt to rest the crown from the City have failed due to London’s attractive cocktail of skilled labour and lifestyle choices. London will survive an exit from the European Union but Frankfurt and Paris will once more try to challenge the old lady’s preeminent position.
The European Union and Britain need each other. The UK and the Union are massive trading partners and their economies and financial systems are just too integrated for a Brexit to even be contemplated.
The discussion about Brexit needs to be expanded as there is a need for an agenda to be put together which looks at reforming the European Union. It is hoped that today’s discussions are just the beginning of a thorough and comprehensive EU-wide reform process.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3019022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1225
Target 2: 1.0990
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119
Daily control level: 1.1180
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3019022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4480
Target 2: 1.4190
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0148
Daily control level: 1.4395
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3019022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 114.90
Target 2: 111.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.67
Daily control level: 114.50
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3019022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0035
Target 2: 0.9820
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 0.9845
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3019022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3800
Target 2: 1.3675
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0167
Daily control level: 1.3910
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3019022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7260
Target 2: 0.7055
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 0.7080
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3019022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1256.00
Target 2: 1205.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 23.30
Daily control level: 1200.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6M3019022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 32.50
Target 2: 28.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.04
Daily control level: 28.65
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.02.2016
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has resumed the downward trend after the last week’s consolidation
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1110 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.1037, which is the 2nd pivot support level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.0990, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1155, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD plummeted this morning, as the concerns over the potential exit of Britain from the EU worries investors. At the moment, the pair is retesting the bottom of the newly created downtrend channel.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4353 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4095, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4050, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4353, being the Pivot Point of today.
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202USDJPYH4-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is trading higher this morning, with the likely intention to retest the top of the downward trend channel.
USDJPY needs to hold above 112.76 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 113.82, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 114.20, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could follow next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.15, which is today’s 1st pivot support level of the pair together with the previous low of the pair.
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is trading higher this morning, after the pair broke a short-term uptrend channel last Friday.
USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9917 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.0000, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today together with the pair’s major resistance level. Should this target be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0027, which is the 3rd pivot resistance of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9892, being the 1st intermediate pivot support of today.
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD has once again breached the bottom of the daily uptrend channel.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3774 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.3671, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3605, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3836, being the 1st pivot resistance of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD returned to trade within the uptrend channel limits this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7125 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7220, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today, could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7125, being the pair’s pivot point of today.
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning, signalling a move lower might be ahead.
Gold needs to hold below 1226.63 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1199.00, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1190.00, could occur next.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1226.63, which is the metal’s Pivot Point of today.
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price continues to recover this morning.
The commodity needs to hold above 32.24 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 34.08, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 34.61, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 31.37, being 1st pivot support level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.02.2016
This morning 9:00 AM London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers.
This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.
The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.
Due to the size and breadth of this report, the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.
The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.
Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.
The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.
The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight decrease to 107.0, as compared to the previous number of 107.3.
A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.
The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic business outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.
As economic expansion is seen as being inflationary and economic contraction being deflationary the European Central Bank, (ECB) may step in an increase or decrease interest rates so as to ensure that the influential and dominant German economy does not grow or contract too quickly.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3023022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1140
Target 2: 1.0915
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112
Daily control level: 1.1140
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3023022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4305
Target 2: 1.3990
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0158
Daily control level: 1.4405
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3023022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 114.40
Target 2: 111.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55
Daily control level: 113.40
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3023022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0100
Target 2: 0.9890
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 0.9885
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3023022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3955
Target 2: 1.3550
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149
Daily control level: 1.3845
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3023022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7320
Target 2: 0.7130
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.7065
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3023022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1235.00
Target 2: 1182.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 26.52
Daily control level: 1234.00
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLJ6M3023022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 35.20
Target 2: 31.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90
Daily control level: 31.35
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 24.02.2016
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD reached a new three-week low this morning.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1019 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.0956, which is the 1st pivot support level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.0915, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1019, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has reached a seven-month low this morning.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4061 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.3860, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.3800, which is the next key level, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4061, being the Pivot Point of today.
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is consolidating under the recently breached short-term uptrend channel.
USDJPY needs to hold below 112.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 111.02, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 110.60, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could follow next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.83, which is the 1st pivot resistance of the pair.
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is consolidating around the daily pivot point in indecision.
USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9935 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 0.9976, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance and also coinciding with the previous high. Should this target be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0041, which is the 2nd pivot resistance of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9871, being the 1st pivot support of today.
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is consolidating under the recently breached daily uptrend channel.
USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3768 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside aim is 1.3895, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3935, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3641, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has once again breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7219 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7120, being the 3rd pivot support of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7105, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7219, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold is retesting to return within the limits of the recently breached uptrend channel.
Gold needs to hold above 1220.15 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1250.00, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1254.31, could develop next.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1212.21, which is the metal’s 1st pivot support of today.
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil price is plummeting, as one more meeting between oil-producing countries failed to reach an agreement.
The commodity needs to hold below 32.36 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 30.90, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.09, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.17, being 1st pivot resistance level of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.02.2016
The British Prime Minister David Cameron is prepared to engage the Bank of England in order to keep Britain in the European Union. According to his speech on Tuesday, the policymakers “will make sure that the Treasury and the Bank of England and other authoritative organisations set out the facts, set out the figures so people can make a judgment.”
In the meantime, the pound continues to weaken against its major counterparts, with the GBPUSD hitting a new seven-year low yesterday afternoon and trading below 1.3900 marks.
Mark Carney, the BoE Governor, is ready to loosen the monetary policy, saying that the Bank is open to the interest rate cuts and extending a bond-buying programme if required. Even though the slowdown in the global economy has not yet significantly affected the UK growth. He also emphasized his view that the local interest rates will be unlikely to be raised from the record low of 0.5% over the next three years.
Second Estimate UK GDP data release will open this morning at 9:30 am London time. The change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services within the country is expected to remain unaltered from the last quarter at 0.5%. Provided the release will not show significant deviations from the forecast, this event is unlikely to significantly affect the British Pound.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3025022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1110
Target 2: 1.0910
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3022022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4180
Target 2: 1.3765
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0159
Daily control level: 1.4405
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3025022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 113.65
Target 2: 110.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.50
Daily control level: 113.40
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3025022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9980
Target 2: 0.9790
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 0.9950
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3025022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3800
Target 2: 1.3675
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145
Daily control level: 1.3660
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3025022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7280
Target 2: 0.7110
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.7065
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3025022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1254.00
Target 2: 1200.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 26.77
Daily control level: 1201.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLJ6M3025022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 34.00
Target 2: 30.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.98
Daily control level: 33.50
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.02.2016
The main event for today will be a G20 summit held in Shanghai, where leaders will gather to discuss means to support the sluggish global economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said it is imperative to speed up existing structural reforms and use more effectively fiscal and monetary measures in order to attain that.
“Global growth prospects remain clouded in the near term, with emerging-market economies losing steam, world trade slowing down and the recovery in advanced economies being dragged down by persistently weak investment,” the OECD said, as it urged the leaders to deal with these conditions.
The OECD’s mission is to monitor reforms within G20 countries in order to achieve an earlier set of goals of increasing global economic growth by 2% until 2018. In order to do that, more than 800 reforms were introduced since 2014, however, their implementation still remains delayed.
Concerns regarding developments in China is also expected to take a priority in G20 discussions. The world’s second-largest economy has reported a growth of 6.9% for 2015, which was the country’s weakest in last 25 years.
On the over hand, Germany has shown a strong opposition to proposed loosening of the current fiscal stimulus programme. Wolfgang Schaeuble, at a meeting with his counterparts before the summit, warned that space for further monetary easing is exhausted and using additional debt to boost a growth will lead to “zombifying” of economies.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3025022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1110
Target 2: 1.0920
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.0980
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3025022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4110
Target 2: 1.3805
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153
Daily control level: 1.4405
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3025022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 114.40
Target 2: 110.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40
Daily control level: 113.40
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3025022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9950
Target 2: 0.9810
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 0.9950
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3025022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3675
Target 2: 1.3375
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150
Daily control level: 1.3735
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3025022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7320
Target 2: 0.7145
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7145
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3025022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1257.00
Target 2: 1207.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 25.19
Daily control level: 1220.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLJ6M3025022016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 35.00
Target 2: 31.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.99
Daily control level: 31.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.02.2016
Today’s trading session is promising to be quiet in regards of economic releases. Nevertheless, investors are awaiting some important events this week.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics will deliver the employment set of data which will highlight the current labour market conditions. This time, the market consensus expects the number of employed people during the previous month to increase to 195.000 from 151.000 of January.
Average Hourly Earnings data though is predicted to slide lower to 0.2% this month in comparison to 0.5% of the last release. Lastly, the Unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unaltered at 4.9%.
Tomorrow’s session is promising to be quite busy with the economic forecasts. Firstly, the data on Chinese Manufacturing Sector will be released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The official PMI data is not expected to change and remain at 48.4 level, whereas Caixin survey, later on, is awaiting a slight drop to 48.2 from 48.4 of a month ago.
Following that, the Reserve Bank of Australia data will capture the attention of traders. The majority of economists do not expect any changes in the monetary policy of the institution. However, the rate statement will likely to give some hints regarding the future economic outlook together with the commentary regarding the current economic conditions.
This Tuesday’s afternoon, the major data event is the US ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index release. The data is expected to improve to 48.6 this time, nevertheless remaining in the contraction zone below 50.0 level.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3029022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1004
Target 2: 1.0815
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 1.1070
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3029022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4010
Target 2: 1.3700
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0155
Daily control level: 1.4050
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3029022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 115.35
Target 2: 112.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.43
Daily control level: 111.00
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3029022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0060
Target 2: 0.9885
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 1.0100
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3029022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3655
Target 2: 1.3370
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0143
Daily control level: 1.3735
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3029022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7210
Target 2: 0.7030
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7145
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3029022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1248.00
Target 2: 1195.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 26.60
Daily control level: 1244.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLJ6M3029022016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 34.65
Target 2: 30.75
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.94
Daily control level: 30.75
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ACFX SPECIAL REPORT – TURKEY
The Turkish economy has experienced a minor miracle in recent years. This country’s economy has risen like a phoenix from the debt crisis of the late 1990’s. The transformation has turned Turkey into a regional industrial powerhouse.
Economic growth and prosperity have brought Turkey an enhanced status on the international stage. The benefits to Turkey such as cementing itself as a member of the exclusive club of G-20 nations and a greater in international negotiations.
A strong and growing economy brings with it a greater confidence. The Turkish Government has been able to flex its muscles as it looks to protect its economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East region.
Unfortunately, this brought the Turkish Government into direct political conflict with the goals of the Russian Federation.The cost to the Turkish economy has been damaging as sanctions imposed by the administration of Vladimir Putin’s Russian Government is expected to be in the region of US Dollar 9 billion per year.
The sanctions that have been imposed by the Russian Government could not have come at a more unfortunate time. Emerging nations such as Turkey have benefited from an extended period of low US interest rates.
The US Federal Reserve has committed itself to increasing interest rates during 2016. The prospect of higher yields received from investments in US debt has resulted in capital flowing away from Emerging Market nations such as Turkey.
The uncertainty that has shown itself in the forex markets as investors have reduced their exposure to the Lira and bought the US Dollar. However, the weakness in the Lira can be traced back to July 2011. From a monthly aspect, USDTRL at this period was trending in an uptrend with the price-action moving above the support of the cloud and the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen.
MONTHLY CHART
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDTRYMonthly.png)
The weekly time frame demonstrates the importance of using a top-down approach when one tries to analyze the markets. Although an Ichimoku Kinko-Hyo strategy should allow a trader to focus on the one-time frame, it can be seen that breaches beneath the cloud have offered buying and not shorting opportunities. In fact, it can be seen that corrective moves down to both the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen have opportunities to buy the US Dollar and sell the Lira. Although I would like to stress that these trends are intact until they end.
WEEKLY CHART
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDTRYWeekly.png)
The daily time frame has allowed investors to jump on the trading opportunity in the direction of the higher monthly and weekly time window. At the moment, however, USDTRL is currently trading within the cloud congestion area, and the Chikou Span is not giving any clear directional signals. Traders of the USDTRL would now be waiting for a move above the cloud, and the 3.0050 level as this could be sufficient for the Chikou Span could confirm resumption of an upside breakout.
DAILY CHART
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDTRYDaily.png)
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.03.2016
The Reserve Bank of Australia held the interest rate unchanged at 2% level, as expected. However, markets price in the probability that at least two cuts within 2016 will take place.
The RBA in its policy statement this morning reiterated that persistently low levels of inflation could be a base for the consequent monetary policy easing. The inflation is expected to be low for the next two years, with very low levels of oil price adding to that pressure.
The Australian job market also remains a concern to the policymakers as the global economic slowdown is affecting the state of the country’s economy. Tomorrow’s quarterly GDP release is expected to add a further light to the country’s outlook.
Australian Dollar rallied higher on the news, recovering from a week low with AUDUSD reaching 0.7162 this morning.
The rest of this trading day will concentrate on Purchasing Managers indices released in UK and US, the leading indicator of the economic health in these countries.
The British Manufacturing PMI figure is released by Markit at 9:30 am London time. Investors awaiting a decline to 52.3 this time, down from 52.9 figure announced in February.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published at 3:00 pm this afternoon, with the US data still expected to remain in contraction zone at 48.2, which is the case since last November. A volatility of the USD pairs should be expected during the time of release.
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3001032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0960
Target 2: 1.0780
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 1.0965
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3001032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4070
Target 2: 1.3760
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0154
Daily control level: 1.3830
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3001032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 114.00
Target 2: 111.35
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.33
Daily control level: 114.10
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3001032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0065
Target 2: 0.9895
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 0.9945
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3001032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3675
Target 2: 1.3400
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0138
Daily control level: 1.3735
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3001032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7230
Target 2: 0.7050
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7170
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3001032016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1265.00
Target 2: 1211.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 27.18
Daily control level: 1210.00
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3001032016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 35.80
Target 2: 32.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.94
Daily control level: 32.25
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.03.2016
Moody’s Investors Service has lowered the China’s government credit rating outlook from stable to negative, according to the agency’s publication this morning. The long-term primary unsecured debt rating and issuer’s other ratings are affirmed at ‘Aa3′.
The main factors to proceed with the revision of the forecast were the deterioration in the country’s financial performance and weak prospects for their further improvement, reflected in the increasing government debt and rising contingent liabilities.
The enduring fall in the country’s reserves due to the outflow of capital could likely deteriorate the country’s external strength. Even though the Chinese reserves still remain of a massive size of US$ 3.2 billion, they have decreased by US$ 762 billion since the peak in June 2014.
Investor’s uncertainty regarding the authorities’ ability to carry out reforms to address imbalances in the economy, according to the agency, also remains of concern.
Besides, the current fiscal and monetary policy provisions to reach 6.5% growth target are feared to slow the implementation of the necessary reforms, undermining the strength of the Chinese institutions, hence weakening their credibility.
Nonetheless, the current rating remained unchanged as a large size of the country contributes to its credit potency. ”Although GDP growth is slowing, it will remain markedly higher than most of China’s rating peers. The size of the buffers available to face current fiscal and capital outflow challenges allows for a gradual implementation of reform and therefore supports an affirmation of the rating at Aa3”, the agency reports.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3002032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0950
Target 2: 1.0780
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 1.0860
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3002032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4100
Target 2: 1.3800
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149
Daily control level: 1.3895
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3002032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 115.25
Target 2: 112.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.28
Daily control level: 112.00
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3002032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0055
Target 2: 0.9885
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.9945
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3002032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3545
Target 2: 1.3270
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0139
Daily control level: 1.3595
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3002032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7255
Target 2: 0.7090
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.7115
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3002032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1255.00
Target 2: 1207.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 23.69
Daily control level: 1210.00
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3002032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 35.75
Target 2: 31.95
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.92
Daily control level: 33.30
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.03.2016
There is a view spreading among traders that the fall in oil prices, which started in the middle of 2014, might have bottomed out as production is slowing down and the demand remains strong.
This morning oil prices continued to show growth as investors are confident that the near future demand for raw materials will increase. The Brent oil reached US$ 37.47 high, and WTI surged to US$ 35.92 last afternoon according to the trading data.
Nevertheless, most analysts do not expect a sharp rise in the oil prices anytime soon, as the supply continues to exceed the demand, and the global stocks of the raw material are increasing with the unsold commodity.
According to estimates, around 1 to 2 million barrels above average demand are currently produced on the daily basis. In addition, some experts believe that the recent attempt of the non-OPEC oil producing countries to freeze the supply will not be able to curb the oversupply in the market.
Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration announced a 10.4 million barrels increase held in inventory by commercial firms during last week. This is the highest level since April 2015.
The news though did not affect the highly dependent Canadian dollar, which continued to strengthen last afternoon. Australian Dollar has also surged higher and was trading at 0.7323 against the US Dollar this morning, being the pair’s this year high. The US Dollar Index stayed largely unaffected.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3003032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0950
Target 2: 1.0780
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083
Daily control level: 1.0896
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3003032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4230
Target 2: 1.3925
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152
Daily control level: 1.3895
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3003032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 114.70
Target 2: 113.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.27
Daily control level: 113.15
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3003032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0045
Target 2: 0.9880
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 0.9945
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3003032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3545
Target 2: 1.3275
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135
Daily control level: 1.3500
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3003032016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7375
Target 2: 0.7205
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 0.7115
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3003032016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1263.00
Target 2: 1215.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 23.79
Daily control level: 1224.45
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3003032016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 36.55
Target 2: 32.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.87
Daily control level: 33.45
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.03.2016
This afternoon at 1:30 pm London time the Bureau of Labour and Statistics publishes its latest monthly Non-Farm Employment Change data.
This publication is part of the Jobs Report that also includes the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate releases.
The NFP report gives investors’ information on the number of new employees hired during the prior month.
Market participants monitor all the components that make up the Jobs Report. However, the NFP does tend to have an overbearing impact on the market and can cause large amounts of volatility in all liquid asset classes and the forex market.
The NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate reports are published very early after the end of the prior month. Therefore, they can give traders and investors an early warning of economic changes. As such, the Jobs Report is a valuable tool for helping one to decide if new risk should be taken or if current exposure management should be modified.
Jobs related data such as the NFP is important because it is a barometer of the conditions of the United States economy and is also a leading indicator of possible changes to consumer spending.
The market consensus expects to see 195.000 new vacancies to have been filled in February. Today’s forecast if realized would be an increase from the previous 151.000 places that were reported in the prior months release.
The overall trend of the data continues to be positive, however, it is important to consider the NFP data together with the effect on wage levels, released at the same time. The Average Hourly Earnings data, this time, is expected to drop to 0.2%, down from 0.5% of the previous release.
The Federal Reserve would welcome a rise in the level of wages as this will mean that the low-interest rate policy could be relaxed further over the coming year.
Should the NFP actual announcement exceed, the market estimates the US Dollar price would usually strengthen against its major pairs.
High volatility around the time of the Jobs Data releases should be anticipated.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3004032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1035
Target 2: 1.0850
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 1.0820
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3004032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4325
Target 2: 1.4015
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0155
Daily control level: 1.4030
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3004032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 114.80
Target 2: 112.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.22
Daily control level: 113.15
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3004032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0000
Target 2: 0.9840
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079
Daily control level: 0.9980
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3004032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3540
Target 2: 1.3270
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135
Daily control level: 1.3475
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3004032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7440
Target 2: 0.7265
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.7115
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3004032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1287.00
Target 2: 1240.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 23.64
Daily control level: 1224.45
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3004032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 36.50
Target 2: 32.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.86
Daily control level: 33.10
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.03.2016
Oil prices extended the price gains into the Monday opening session on investors’ optimism that the demand for the commodity will grow, whereas the supply is expected to be reduced.
The drop in the number of operating oil rigs has boosted hopes of the market participants that the long-lasting decline in the oil price will finally rebound. The report, released by Baker Hughes on Friday indicated the eleventh week for the oil rigs decline.
Moreover, the possibility that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will finally agree to a production freeze at their next meeting on March 20 is also strengthening investors’ confidence. At the moment, four large commodity’s producers among which are Saudi Arabia and Russia, intend to limit the oil supply at the January levels.
Thus, Brent reached US$ 39.70 high at this week’s opening session with the commodity retesting the top of the downtrend channel which was formed last May. WTI also continue to strengthen as it was trading close to US$ 38.00 level this morning.
Positive news from China seems to add the support to the world’s most traded commodity also as Chinese government voiced its plans to emphasize the growth over the economy restructuring. The target for 2016 was firmly set between 6.5% and 7% when the National People’s Congress was held this weekend.
A number of measures are set to be taken, including tax cuts which will allow the local companies more fund to invest. A broad social financing measures will also be taken to support the slowing down world’s second largest economy.
The US dollar was seen to weaken for the last three trading days, with the index reaching 97.01 low last Friday.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3007032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1075
Target 2: 1.0900
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 1.0900
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3007032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4365
Target 2: 1.4070
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0148
Daily control level: 1.4100
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3007032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 115.00
Target 2: 112.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.19
Daily control level: 113.10
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3007032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0005
Target 2: 0.9840
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.9990
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3007032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3460
Target 2: 1.3200
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132
Daily control level: 1.3475
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3007032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7485
Target 2: 0.7310
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7115
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3007032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1283.50
Target 2: 1235.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 24.13
Daily control level: 1248.70
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3007032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 38.00
Target 2: 34.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79
Daily control level: 34.30
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.03.2016
In overnight news, continuing concerns over the slowdown of the Chinese economy was highlighted by extremely disappointing international trade numbers. According to the Customs General Administration of China, international traded dropped to 210 billion in February. This statistic compares unfavourably to January data of 406 billion.
It was expected that the month on month trade balance number would decline to a more modest 339 billion. This morning’s number is the lowest published reading since March of 2015 and is also the steepest decline since May 2009.
Reading deeper into this data from China, an alteration of the date of the Lunar Year had a dramatic effect on the export numbers. This view is backed up by an analyst report from Capital Economics of Singapore which said. “In 2015, the holiday fell unusually late which meant that more of the pre-holiday rush to meet orders and less of the post-holiday disruptions took place in February, causing exports to jump 48.9 percent year-on-year.”
Later this morning, the United Kingdom Brexit debate will come strongly into focus when the Bank of England Governor, Mr Mark Carney will give testimony to a Parliamentary Committee in London on Britain’s continued membership of the European Union.
The Brexit debate is heating up between the “in” and “out” campaigners within the ruling Conservative Party. Therefore, it will be fascinating to see how Mr Carney and his deputy Mr Cunliffe manage to stick to an impartial line when it is an open secret that the Bank of England favours keeping the UK inside the European Union.
For most of today in Brussels, European Finance Ministers will meet. This meeting will take place just two days before a crucial European Central Bank meeting. The ECB President has on many occasions promoted a dovish bias on interest rates by saying that the central bank will do what it takes to bring inflation back to target. However, to date, Mr Draghi has failed to back up this rhetoric. The ECOFIN meeting could give valuable insight into the mood of European Finance Ministers and their appetite to move further down a path of stimulus.
This afternoon, we have news from Canada with announcements from the construction sector with both Housing Starts and Building Permits publications due to be released. The news from Canada has added significance as this data release will come just one day before a crucial Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
Tuesday is rounded off with data from Australia when the WestPac Banking Corporation will publish its Consumer Sentiment report. This data is followed by more news from the banking and property sector when the Australian Bureau of Statistics is due to announce Home Loans data.
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3008032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1100
Target 2: 1.0925
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 1.0935
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3008032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4410
Target 2: 1.4100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152
Daily control level: 1.4125
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3008032016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 114.60
Target 2: 112.20
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18
Daily control level: 114.30
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3008032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0025
Target 2: 0.9855
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 1.0010
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3008032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3410
Target 2: 1.3155
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0126
Daily control level: 1.3380
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3008032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7555
Target 2: 0.7380
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7385
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3008032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1289.00
Target 2: 1242.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 23.83
Daily control level: 1255.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3008032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 39.70
Target 2: 36.20
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.74
Daily control level: 36.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.03.2016
Euro declined as the next meeting of the European Central Bank is approaching this Thursday. Markets have already priced in a further loosening of the monetary policy, with the deposit rate expected to be cut by at least ten bps to -0.4%.
The possibility of the boosting the amount of the QE assets purchases also remains in place. Some economists expect the bond-purchase programme to be increased by 10 billion euros a month, totalling 70 billion euros.
EURUSD was trading below the 1.10 key level this morning. The pair has reconfirmed the breach of the daily upward trend channel which occurred two weeks ago, suggesting a move lower might be ahead.
Oil has recently been trading higher. However, yesterday afternoon commodity tried to correct lower after it reached a three-month high in the morning. Thus, Brent oil is trading at US$ 40.00 psychological level this morning, whereas WTI is fluctuating around US$ 38.00 mark.
The crude oil inventories release this afternoon will likely to define the oil price direction further. Currently, analysts expect an increase in stocks by 3 million barrels this week, after the index shown a 10.4 million increase last time.
With respect to today’s economic calendar, the European trading hours are promising to be quiet with regards to any major releases, which could affect the market. In the afternoon session, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will come up with their policy statements, which could cause volatility in the Canadian and New Zealand dollars correspondingly
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3009032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1100
Target 2: 1.0920
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 1.1060
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3009032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4360
Target 2: 1.4060
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149
Daily control level: 1.4130
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3009032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 113.75
Target 2: 111.45
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.15
Daily control level: 114.30
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3009032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0045
Target 2: 0.9870
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 0.9895
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3009032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3535
Target 2: 1.3280
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128
Daily control level: 1.3260
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM300903216.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7525
Target 2: 0.7350
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.7400
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3009032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1283.50
Target 2: 1239.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 22.59
Daily control level: 1278.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3009032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 38.00
Target 2: 34.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.76
Daily control level: 35.95
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.03.2016
Today’s session will be marked by the European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate decision which will be announced at 12:45 pm London time.
The interest rate for the main refinancing operations providing the volume liquidity to the banks has declined to all times low in October 2014 and remains unchanged at 0.05% since then.
The benchmark rate is expected to stay unmoved this time, as deflationary pressures due to the deflated oil price remain, among the others, a heavy toll on the inflation rate in Europe, which is well below 2% target.
Nevertheless, the story is different with the deposit interest rate, which first went negative in June 2014, when ECB adopted a -0.10% level, meaning that banks are now charged with keeping their funds with ECB. Since then further two rate cuts have taken the rate to -0.30%. This time, market participants are pricing in at least 0.1% decrease, with the interest rate, in this case, will be -0.4%.
Short term interest rates are playing a major role in a country’s currency valuation. Hence, a market volatility usually rises during the time of the release.
The importance of this announcement will be amplified by the ECB press conference held at 1:30 pm London time, where additional monetary easing measures are expected to be announced.
The Bank’s primary means to communicate to the investors, the press conference will usually cover factors that affected the current decision including the inflation pace and the overall economic outlook.
During the afternoon trading session, traders will be watching the US unemployment claims data, with the number of individuals who applied for the unemployment insurance during past week forecasted to improve to 272.000 down from 278.000 of the previous release.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3010032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1085
Target 2: 1.0910
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 1.1035
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3010032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4350
Target 2: 1.4070
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142
Daily control level: 1.4170
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3010032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 114.50
Target 2: 112.15
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18
Daily control level: 114.30
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3010032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0060
Target 2: 0.9885
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086
Daily control level: 0.9895
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3010032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3380
Target 2: 1.3110
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0134
Daily control level: 1.3445
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3010032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7570
Target 2: 0.7395
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7400
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3010032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1275.00
Target 2: 1229.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 22.82
Daily control level: 1278.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3010032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 40.00
Target 2: 36.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79
Daily control level: 35.95
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.03.2016
The European Central Bank adopted a greater quantitative easing measures than investors were expecting, as yesterday’s monetary policy of the Bank has unveiled.
In addition to fulfilling the expectation that the deposit rate cut to -0.4%, the Central Bank took more drastic measures which included a decision to reduce the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem to a historic low of 0.0%. At the same time, the marginal lending rate was reduced by 0.25%.
The current bond purchasing programme has also been expanded to 80 billion euros a month starting this April. Furthermore, this time, the investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank entities from the euro area will also be added to the list of eligible for purchase assets.
The initial statement sent the Euro lower, however during the press conference, the currency reversed its move with the EURUSD seeing strongest this year’s gains when the pair reached above 1.1200 level last afternoon.
Mr. Draghi’s commented on the course of future monetary policy by saying that no further cuts are being planned for interest rates. “From today’s perspective and taking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation, we don’t anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further. Of course, new facts can change the situation and the outlook.”
The announcement had a significantly negative impact on the US Dollar index, which declined to below 96.00 level, its month’s lowest.
Gold advanced to 1282.00 level during the yesterday’s trading session, being the metal’s one-year high, as investors are looked for safe havens during times of global economic uncertainty.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3011032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1285
Target 2: 1.1070
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 1.0820
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3011032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4410
Target 2: 1.4150
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level: 1.4130
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3011032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 114.40
Target 2: 111.90
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.26
Daily control level: 112.55
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3011032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9940
Target 2: 0.9750
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.0090
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3011032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3480
Target 2: 1.3200
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141
Daily control level: 1.3225
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3011032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7540
Target 2: 0.7365
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7400
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3011032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1293.00
Target 2: 1247.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 22.99
Daily control level: 1237.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3011032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 39.75
Target 2: 36.25
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.777
Daily control level: 37.00
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MORE ON ACFXblog.com
MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.03.2016
Stock exchanges in the Asia-Pacific Region on Monday showed a positive trend before this week’s meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. This supported investors’ optimism caused by the results of the ECB meeting last week, when the bank took a more aggressive approach to support the troubled euro zone economy than initially expected.
This action led markets to hope for a speedy recovery of the euro area and also intensified an increase the demand for risky assets.
Investors’ attention this week is focused on the meetings of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday and the US Federal Reserve’s held on Wednesday. It is anticipated that the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at the current levels, which are -0.1% and 0.25-0.5% respectively.
For now, the US Dollar remains a centre of attention of market participants this week. Even though the probability of the interest rate hike is next to a zero, traders should not yet discard the possibility for a surprise.
In addition to the standard monetary policy announcement by FOMC, this quarterly event will also present updated economic forecasts and the press conference by the Fed Chairwoman, who is expected to bring more light in the future direction of the US monetary policy.
Last week the US dollar was significantly weakened by the ECB’s policy decision, with the dollar index declining below 96.00 mark. Looking its daily chart, the world’s major reserve currency continues to trade a downtrend scenario, hinting that the uptrend established in the middle of 2014 might be coming to an end.
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403EURUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1256
Target 2: 1.1030
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 1.0820
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403GBPUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4507
Target 2: 1.4241
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133
Daily control level: 1.4130
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403USDJPYH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 115.11
Target 2: 112.67
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.216
Daily control level: 112.55
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403USDCHFH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9926
Target 2: 0.9734
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 1.0090
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403USDCADH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3367
Target 2: 1.3083
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142
Daily control level: 1.3225
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403AUDUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7642
Target 2: 0.7452
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.7400
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403GOLDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1274.70
Target 2: 1225.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 24.65
Daily control level: 1237.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403OILUSDH1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 41.33
Target 2: 38.07
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.629
Daily control level: 37.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.03.2016
As expected, the Bank of Japan decided to keep the monetary policy unchanged at the meeting this morning. The policymakers, however, warned that current economic conditions remain of concern, hence, will likely become an impediment to reaching the previously set inflation objectives.
“The BOJ is trying hard to reduce the impact that negative rates are having on the financial sector because banks have been very critical of this policy,” commented Hiroaki Muto, an economist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center to the Reuters this morning.
At the moment, he interest rate was left at -0.1%, with the current quantitative easing program remaining at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen money base expansion and ETF buying program intact.
It was also decided to exempt US$90 billion in short-term funds from the negative rates, as concerns from the investment industry suggested that funds could end up in bank deposits.
However, perhaps the biggest surprise to investors was the alteration of the statement language, suggesting that a further progression of the interest rates into negative territory might be coming to an end.
The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, reaching 113.56 this morning after the news were announced. The Nikkei index, on the other hand, weakened, as it was trading almost 1% lower on a day.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3015032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1210
Target 2: 1.0990
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 1.1070
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3015032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4430
Target 2: 1.4170
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level: 1.4250
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3015032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 115.00
Target 2: 112.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.20
Daily control level: 114.20
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3015032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9965
Target 2: 0.9780
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 1.0090
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3015032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3400
Target 2: 1.3130
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136
Daily control level: 1.3405
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3015032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7600
Target 2: 0.7400
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096
Daily control level: 0.7420
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3015032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1261.00
Target 2: 1211.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 24.89
Daily control level: 1262.00
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3015032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 39.00
Target 2: 35.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.68
Daily control level: 39.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.03.2016
This afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee is due to give it latest interest rate decision. Back on December 15, the FOMC decided to commence a policy change which forecasts interest rates being increased a further four times during 2016. Such a policy shift would lead to the Fed Funds rate increasing to 1.4% by the end of the year.
However, just a few hours before the March meeting and with the state of the domestic economy not convincing many market participants that we are ready for a rate increase, anytime soon it would appear that a rate rise later today is not on the agenda. In light of this, it would seem that time is running out for Chairwoman Yellen to push through and complete a four hike dot plot scenario.
According to latest data, the market has priced in a small probability that interest rates will be increased today by the FOMC from the current 0.50% target. Interestingly, however according to market pricing, the likelihood of a rate hike happening today has grown.
The change in market sentiment and how it views the possible course that the FOMC could take today and during the rest of 2016 is being influenced by a continuation of the strong jobs numbers and what is seen as a more positive economic outlook.
Yellen and her fellow committee members although dependent on data are mindful that their policy decisions should not be viewed to be overly influenced by the most recent financial news release.
Trying to keep the correct balance between market expectations and affecting the market through the application of forward guidance is a difficult task. Notwithstanding this, and due to current developments and the overall positive momentum in the data, it would not be unexpected to see a more hawkish tone being set by the FOMC later today.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3016032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1215
Target 2: 1.0990
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112
Daily control level: 1.1070
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3016032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4285
Target 2: 1.4015
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136
Daily control level: 1.4450
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3016032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 114.35
Target 2: 112.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.20
Daily control level: 114.20
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3016032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9960
Target 2: 0.9780
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 1.0090
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM301603216.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3480
Target 2: 1.3220
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129
Daily control level: 1.3405
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3016032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7550
Target 2: 0.7365
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.7420
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3016032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1256.00
Target 2: 1209.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 23.69
Daily control level: 1262.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3016032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 38.25
Target 2: 35.15
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.58
Daily control level: 39.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.03.2016
The US dollar tumbled on the FOMC statement last afternoon when policymakers decided to revise down monetary policy targets, set according to the much-discussed dot plot.
Even though the benchmark interest rate remained unchanged, the promised earlier four rate hikes this year were reduced to two, as the country’s economic growth and inflation expectations were also downgraded.
According to the statement, a risk from the global economic and financial developments persists, with the local jobs market needing some improvements. The US stock market had an edgy start of the year and despite some improvements, still trading downtrend scenario. That could suggest tightening the monetary policy will be too early for now.
Even though Federal Reserve remains flexible with their action and ready to respond whenever it is necessary, it is nevertheless not an option to consider the negative interest rates yet.
The US Dollar Index declined to a one-month low, reaching 95.55 level last afternoon. Oil prices resumed the upward trend, with the WTI trading above 40.80 levels this morning.
Gold reacted positively too, as investors are looking for a safe harbour for their investments. The precious metal returning to trade within recently breached uptrend channel when it reached 1263.75 on the news.
Today, traders’ attention will switch to the interest rate decision and the monetary policy summary by the Bank of England at 12:00 pm London’s time. The rate is expected to stay without changes at 0.5%. Volatility in GBP pairs could be observed.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3017032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1325
Target 2: 1.1100
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM301732016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4385
Target 2: 1.4115
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0139
Daily control level: 1.4450
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3017032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 113.90
Target 2: 111.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.24
Daily control level: 113.85
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3017032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9870
Target 2: 0.9685
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 0.9920
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3017032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3265
Target 2: 1.2965
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149
Daily control level: 1.3405
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3017032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7660
Target 2: 0.7460
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 0.7420
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3017032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1285.00
Target 2: 1236.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 24.51
Daily control level: 1225.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3017032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 40.15
Target 2: 37.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.62
Daily control level: 36.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.03.2016
The US dollar declined on the overly dovish FOMC statement this Wednesday. The move lower resulted in a break of the ten-month uptrend channel and could be an important sign for the future direction of the world’s major reserve currency. The decline followed the last week’s plunge as a reaction to the European Central Bank’s policy and is a strongest decline of the currency within the last two years.
Despite concerns, analysts believe that it is still unlikely that the US dollar will simply collapse against its major counterparts. This is due to the relative strength of the US economy in comparison with conditions in the rest of the world.
In the wake of the cautious Fed stance gold has reclaimed the upside momentum with the metal currently trading above the 1260.00 mark. Gold has always been considered investor’s safe harbour, it is logical that we are now seeing the increased demand for the metal among such a vast uncertainty in the world’s markets.
Surprisingly, the oil has also joined the best market performers’ league, as it reached a new 2016 high this morning. Looking at the commodity’s 4-hour chart, it might be still too early to get excited about the long-term change of direction. Taking the WTI as an example, the commodity is still trading below the recently breached uptrend channel and needs to return to its limits so more bullish bets could be made.
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3018032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1430
Target 2: 1.1195
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 1.1050
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3018032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4625
Target 2: 1.4325
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150
Daily control level: 1.4215
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3018032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 112.70
Target 2: 110.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.29
Daily control level: 113.85
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3018032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9765
Target 2: 0.9570
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 0.9920
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3018032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3135
Target 2: 1.2830
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153
Daily control level: 1.3405
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3018032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7740
Target 2: 0.7515
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 0.7420
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3018032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1281.00
Target 2: 1233.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 24.01
Daily control level: 1225.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3018032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 41.80
Target 2: 38.60
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.62
Daily control level: 38.65
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.03.2016
The Gold market demonstrated a downward momentum as investors engaged in profit-taking. The metal has been appreciating in value since the middle of December 2015, but this month it showed signs of stagnation, hinting that a move further up might come to a halt. This morning the metal was trading at US$ 1240.49, versus US$ 1270.76 high of last week.
By looking at the technical indicators, we can see that the Gold price has breached the 4 hours uptrend channel last Monday. Also, it failed an attempt to return to the channel limits by the end of the week, which could be another sign that the metal might retrace.
The edging down in the precious metal’s price also coincided with a recovery in the US dollar value by the close of the Friday’s trading session, as both products historically have a negative correlation.
The recent events have shown that the US and European Central Banks are inclined towards the keeping the monetary easing measures for longer as the corresponding economies still have a hard time to recover. Nevertheless, some analysts believe, there are considerably fewer policy tools left to implement. Hence, this could support the new downturn bias in gold.
Oil prices also retraced as well since last Friday. The commodity reached a new high of this year and WTI surpassing a US$ 42.50 mark. The next critical level and support of US$ 40.00 are also a downside target, which the oil could retest before deciding on the move further.
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3021032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1385
Target 2: 1.1150
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119
Daily control level: 1.1250
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3021032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4610
Target 2: 1.4310
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0151
Daily control level: 1.4400
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3021032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 112.70
Target 2: 110.35
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18
Daily control level: 113.85
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3021032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9790
Target 2: 0.9600
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 0.9920
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3021032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3175
Target 2: 1.2870
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152
Daily control level: 1.2915
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3021032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7695
Target 2: 0.7490
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 0.7420
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3021032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1278.00
Target 2: 1230.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 24.2
Daily control level: 1225.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3021032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 40.70
Target 2: 37.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.66
Daily control level: 41.25
MORE ON ACFXblog.com
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.03.2016
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3022032016NY.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has been trading in a corrective downtrend since Friday.
However, this morning an acceleration of the move lower occurred following the rejection of the Daily Pivot (1.1252).
EURUSD has subsequently traded down to S2 (1.1197) which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci support level.
Bounce off S2 could see EURUSD trade back up to the Daily Pivot.
Alternatively, a failure of the price action to hold above S2 could see EURUSD trade down to S3 (1.1167) which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci support level.
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3022032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has been trading in a corrective downtrend since Monday.
However, this morning an acceleration of the move lower occurred following the rejection of the Daily Pivot (1.4399).
GBPUSD has subsequently sliced through S2 (1.4297) which coincides with the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci support level area.
Support within this support area could lead to the price action trading back above S2 and possibly S1 (1.4332).
Alternatively, a failure of the price action to trade above S2 could see GBPUSD trade down to S3 (1.4229)
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3022032016NY.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has been trading in a corrective uptrend since Friday.
However, this morning a resumption of the downtrend has occurred following a rejection of R1 (112.21).
USDJPY has subsequently sliced through the Daily Pivot (111.71) and tested and bounced off S1 (111.45)
Support within this support area could lead to the price action trading back above the Daily Pivot and possibly R1.
Alternatively, a failure of the price action to trade above the Daily Pivot could see USDJPY re-test S1
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3022032016NY.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has been trading in a corrective uptrend since Friday.
During the morning USDCHF has attempted to re-test yesterday’s high and today’s R1 level (0.9731)
A breach of R1 could lead to a continuation of the move higher that sees USDCHF test R2 (0.9758) and the upper level of the down channel.
Alternatively, a failure of the price action to trade above the R1 could see USDCHF re-test the Daily Pivot.
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3022032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD has experienced a volatile morning session as traders wait for the outcome of Canadian Government’s Annual Budget Statement.
This volatility initially led to a test of the Daily Pivot (1.3072) and then a spike that was however rejected at R1 (1.3127).
Market uncertainty could continue in the lead up to tonight’s major event.
Before the release of the budget statement moves above R1 and below S1 (1.3043) could be seen as potential fading opportunities
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3022032016NY.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has experienced a volatile morning session as traders digest the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor upbeat assessment of the Australian economy.
This volatility initially led to a broad trading range with both R1 (0.7614) and S1 (.0.7556) being tested.
As AUDUSD has now initially rejected the 50% Fibonacci support level a resumption of the prior uptrend could see AUDUSD re-test R1.
Alternatively, a failure to hold above S1 could lead to the price action trading down to the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.7515).
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3022032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning XAUUSD has resumed its uptrend following a bounce off the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci support area.
The move higher sliced through R1 (1252.56) but failed to reach R2 (1261.65) as the price action found resistance at a prior weekly swing level (1260.00)
A continuation of the uptrend could see Gold retest the 1260.00 level and then R2).
Alternatively, a failure to hold above the Daily Pivot (1246.50) could lead to the price action trading back down into the 61.8% Fibonacci support area.
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLK6M3022032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has experienced a two day down trend. However, lower prices were yesterday rejected at S1 (40.70),
This morning Oil has traded within a tight range at the highs of yesterday’s price action and above today’s Daily Pivot (41.25).
A continuation of the uptrend could see Oil test the R1 (42.10)
Alternatively, a failure to hold above the Daily Pivot could lead to the price action trading down S1 (40.74)
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 23.03.2016
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has breached the uptrend channel, and is now heading to retest the bottom of the daily channel.
EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1220 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.1148, which is the 2nd pivot support level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1100, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1253, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today.
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD is heading to retest the bottom of the daily uptrend channel after it was unable to support the move higher.
GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4266 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 1.4135, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4065, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4342, which is 1st pivot resistance of today.
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY is retesting the top of the downtrend channel.
USDJPY needs to hold above 112.07 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.
The initial upside target is 113.20, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 113.50, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 111.67, which today’s 1st pivot resistance level.
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel. In addition, the pair is looking to reconfirm the breach of the daily uptrend channel.
USDCHF needs to break below 0.9716 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 0.9698, being the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot support. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9668, which is the 2nd pivot support of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9795, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance of today.
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel and today is looking to reconfirm it.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3069 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.3000, being the next key level together with 1st pivot support of today. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.2895, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3195, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is consolidating above the recently breached uptrend channel.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7602 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7654, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7710, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level, could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7520, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel as the US dollar has gained strength.
Gold needs to hold below 1250.12 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.
The initial downside target is 1222.39, being the 3rd pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1211.93, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.
If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1250.15, which is the commodity’s pivot point of today.
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil is retesting the bottom of the newly created extension of the uptrend channel.
The commodity needs to break above 40.70 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 41.97, being 1st pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 42.70, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.35, being the commodity’s 2nd pivot support of today.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.03.2016
This morning will begin with the monthly report on the UK Retail Sales at 9:30 a.m. London time, released by the Office for National Statistics.
The Retail Sales indicator tracks a change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. As the consumer spending constitutes the majority of a country’s economic activity, the announcement will likely to cause a volatility of the GBP pairs.
The change in the inflation-adjusted sales is forecasted to decline to -0.7%, after the 2.3% improvement in the February’s release. As British Pound continues to weaken, the figures lower than expected could put downward pressure.
Following that the weekly US Unemployment Claims data will come into the spotlight at 1:30 p.m. London time. Also known as Jobless Claims, the indicator represents a measure of completed unemployment insurance forms that were submitted by individuals for the first time within a previous week.
Initial jobless claims have a big impact on financial markets because it shows a new and emerging unemployment and provides a gauge of strength in the US labour market. As employment figures and consumer spending are directly correlated, the statistics give an overview of the US economic activity.
The forecasted value for today’s release stands at 267.000, with the expected increase from the previous 265.000 number.
At the same time, traders will be on the lookout for the US the monthly Core Durable Goods Orders report, which usually has a high impact on the FOREX market.
This report measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of durable goods, excluding transportation items. The value for the previous period was published as 1.8% while the forecast for this reporting period is -0.2%.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3024032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1285
Target 2: 1.1070
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 1.1260
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3024032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4260
Target 2: 1.3970
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0147
Daily control level: 1.4400
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3024032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 113.50
Target 2: 111.20
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.14
Daily control level: 112.20
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3024032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9840
Target 2: 0.9660
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 0.9670
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3024032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3355
Target 2: 1.3050
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152
Daily control level: 1.3020
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3024032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7630
Target 2: 0.7435
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 0.7650
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3024032016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1243.00
Target 2: 1198.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 22.82
Daily control level: 1260.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLK6M3024032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 41.25
Target 2: 38.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.62
Daily control level: 42.60
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.03.2016
This afternoon at 12:30 pm London the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its latest Final GDP report.
This report measures the annualized increase or decrease of all production which includes services that the US economy producers.
This report is produced on the quarterly basis and is released some 85 days after the quarter ends.
GDP data is released in three different versions being the Preliminary, Final and Advance GDP numbers. Of the three data sets, the Advanced GDP is the most followed as it is the earliest release and therefore usually has the greatest effect.
GDP data is an important measure of countries economic wellbeing as a productive activity. Expanding or contraction productivity can be used as an early barometer which measures expanding or contracting economic activity.
The prior GDP release showed indicated an expansion of 1.0% with the market consensus expecting today’s number to be unchanged.
In general, a GDP release that is greater than the forecast should lead to an appreciation of the US Dollar.
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3025032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1285
Target 2: 1.1070
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.1260
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3025032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4300
Target 2: 1.4005
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0146
Daily control level: 1.4400
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3025032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 113.95
Target 2: 111.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.14
Daily control level: 112.35
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3025032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9845
Target 2: 0.9670
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.9735
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3025032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3390
Target 2: 1.3090
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150
Daily control level: 1.3020
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3025032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7615
Target 2: 0.7425
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095
Daily control level: 0.7650
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.03.2016
Today the Easter bank holidays carries on in many European countries, among which are France, Germany and Italy. Hence, the morning trading session is promising to be quiet.
Observing the markets, the Japanese Yen was the major underperformer this morning, when USDJPY reached 113.68 high. This action was mainly due to the stronger Nikkei 225 index, which undermined demand for the low-risk currency.
Oil price continued to rebound from the last week lows and is heading for a second straight monthly gain. Thus, Brent oil was trading at US$ 41.55 this morning, whereas WTI extended to US$ 40.36. That could probably decrease the expectations that Saudi Arabia, the major oil exporter, would abandon it currency peg to the US Dollar, which is in place since 1986.
Looking forward to the afternoon session the US Personal Consumption Expenditure will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1:30 pm London time. The data representing the amount of goods and services consumed by individuals in the month of February, this time, is expected to decline to 0.2% after it showed 0.3% increase last month.
At the same time, the US personal spending numbers will also be published. The previous results of the change in inflation-adjusted value of consumer expenditures showed 0.5% increase, whereas expectations for today’s data stand at 0.2%
Pending home sales will round up this news day at 3:00 pm. The data shows a change in the number of homes, which are still awaiting to be sold but already having a contract transaction and is forecasted to improve to 1.2%, up from -2.5% of last time.
Should US data come better than expected that could boost the recovery of the US currency? The US Dollar has opened this week with the gap up extending to 96.40 mark, which is the currency’s six- week high.
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3028032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1265
Target 2: 1.1065
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103
Daily control level: 1.1190
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3028032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4265
Target 2: 1.3985
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141
Daily control level: 1.4185
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM302803216.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 114.25
Target 2: 112.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.11
Daily control level: 112.35
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3028032016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9850
Target 2: 0.9680
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.9735
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3028032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3415
Target 2: 1.3125
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145
Daily control level: 1.3020
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3028032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7600
Target 2: 0.7420
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 0.7540
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3028032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1238.00
Target 2: 1194.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 22.45
Daily control level: 1224.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLK6M3028032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 41.35
Target 2: 38.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.45
Daily control level: 42.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.03.2016
The US Dollar is trading higher this morning as traders await a speech by Federal Reserve Chairwoman later this afternoon. As always, Janet Yellen’s presentation will be closely scrutinized by the market participants, who will look for clues regarding the Fed’s future monetary policy.
On the March 16, the FOMC delivered a statement, which gave a dovish message to the markets as it reduced the projected amount of interest rate increases for 2016. This action will likely lead to a lower dollar and expected to boost the US economy.
The shift towards a policy that seeks to devalue the US currency was highlighted by FOMC Chairwoman’s message to the worlds gathered press that US Dollar strength transitory. Although this term was used this was the first time it was applied in regards to the Dollar’s value.
The main goals of the policymakers are the price stability and a healthy US job market. Nevertheless, a weaker US Dollar policy is welcomed by the global markets as this could lead to price stability and less deflation there too. Furthermore, the policy of deliberately weakening the US Dollar could act as a spur for growth both within the USA and across the globe..
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3029032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1295
Target 2: 1.1095
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.1140
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3029032016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4400
Target 2: 1.4105
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150
Daily control level: 1.4105
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3029032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 114.45
Target 2: 112.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06
Daily control level: 113.10
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3029032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9815
Target 2: 0.9650
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 0.9790
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3029032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3320
Target 2: 1.3050
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0137
Daily control level: 1.3020
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3029032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7630
Target 2: 0.7450
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 0.7490
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3029032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1243.00
Target 2: 1199.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 22.07
Daily control level: 1224.00
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLK6M3029032016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 40.70
Target 2: 37.90
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.39
Daily control level: 40.15
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 30.03.2016
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003EURUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD has bounced off the bottom of the daily uptrend channel as investors hopes regarding the US rate hikes are fading after the yesterday’s speech of Janet Yellen.
EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1253 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.1370, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1430, could be observed further.
If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1253, being the pair’s pivot point of today.
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003GBPUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the newly created uptrend channel.
GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4326 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.
The initial upside target is 1.4496, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4530, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could take place next.
If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4248, which is pair’s 1st pivot support level.
USDJPY
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003USDJPYH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY plummeted lower as the US dollar is weakening.
USDJPY needs to hold below 113.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.
The initial downside target is 111.83, being the 2nd pivot support. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 111.60, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could take place next.
If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 113.02, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003USDCHFH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF is dropped lower on the dovish speech of Janet Yellen made yesterday.
USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9693 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside target is 0.9600, being the pair’s next key level together with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9554, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot support of today.
If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9700.
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003USDCADH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD is testing the bottom of the downtrend channel this morning.
USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3112 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.
The initial downside aim is 1.2935, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today. After the target is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.2895, which is 3rd intermediate pivot support of today.
If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3112, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003AUDUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has reached a nine-months high this morning.
AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7593 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7715, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7770, could follow next.
If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7593, being the pivot point of today.
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003GOLDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold is trading within the newly created downward trend channel, bouncing off the bottom off it.
Gold needs to hold above 1217.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 1225.84, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1138.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.
If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1206.32, which is the commodity’s 2nd pivot support of today.
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003OILUSDH4.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil is has bounced off the bottom of the uptrend channel and is trading higher this morning.
The commodity needs to hold above 39.53 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.
The initial upside target is 40.94, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 41.35, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could follow next.
If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.
If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 39.00, being the commodity’s next key level.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.04.2016
The beginning of the week started with heightened event risk when last Tuesday the Federal Reserve Charwoman, Mrs. Janet Yellen spoke about the Economic Outlook of the US and global economy during a talk given to the Economic Club of New York.
This speech was extremely dovish on the prospect of future interest rate increases when Yellen spoke of the need for a stabilization of foreign economies and markets and the impact of the strong US Dollar.
This week will end how it began with today’s New York session preceded by the monthly Jobs Report which is due to be announced at 1:30 PM London time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Jobs Report, which is made up of the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change releases.
Although all three reports are important as together they give a complete picture of the state of the United States employment market, the Non-Farm Payrolls number always receives the lion’s share of the attention.
In a prelude to this afternoon’s data releases, yesterday, the US Department of Labor published the missing piece of the Jobs Report picture when it announced the Unemployment Claims data. Unemployment Claims had been in steady decline since they hit a peak during the time when the great recession ravaged the United States and global economy.
As unemployment claims are published on a weekly basis, there is a lot of data points to consider however the downtrend in this number does support the good overall picture that we have seen in the monthly release of the Jobs Report. The prior week’s announcement was 265K, and the consensus view was that there would be a slight increase in claimants with a rise to 266K. Yesterday’s actual number was 276K.
Back to today’s releases, the markets are expecting the NFP number to be reported at around the 206K level which would be well below the prior month’s 242K. It should be noted that the actual NFP number published has tended to ignore analysts assessments in recent months. Therefore trying to glean anything from such forecasts would seem to have little value.
The Unemployment Rate report has also indicated that there is strength in the US employment market as the amount of those seeking employment has dropped from over 10% back in 2009 to 4.9% that was reported in the March publication. As the rate of unemployment is now so small, it would be tough for the NFP numbers to continually show such strength as fewer and fewer citizens are now looking for work.
Which brings us to the final part of the Jobs Report, which is, of course, the Average Hourly Earnings release. It is to be expected that businesses would begin to increase salaries offered as a means to retain and recruit employees? However, although the Average Hourly Earnings number have only on the occasional month indicated that wages are in fact increasing, there have been other months such as the March publication which were very disappointing.
We end where we started with Janet Yellen at the FOMC and the dual mandate of price stability and a healthy jobs market. The Federal Reserve is dependent on data, therefore, although it would like to see continued strength in the Jobs Report numbers, its will be hoping that the Average Hourly Earnings numbers begin to move in line with the rest of this publication.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSDM3001042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1455
Target 2: 1.1300
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080
Daily control level: 1.1305
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSDM3001042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.4520
Target 2: 1.4230
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145
Daily control level: 1.4315
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPYM3001042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 113.50
Target 2: 111.55
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99
Daily control level: 112.70
USDCHF
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHFM3001042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9685
Target 2: 0.9545
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071
Daily control level: 0.9665
USDCAD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCADM3001042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3145
Target 2: 1.2860
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142
Daily control level: 1.3215
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSDM3001042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7745
Target 2: 0.7585
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091
Daily control level: 0.7630
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GOLDM3001042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1252.00
Target 2: 1212.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 20.00
Daily control level: 1222.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CLK6M3001042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 39.55
Target 2: 36.70
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44
Daily control level: 39.85
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.04.2016
Last week ended with highly anticipated Jobs report from the United States. The data, consisting of the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change releases, gives a complete picture of the state of the United States employment market.
The Non-Farm Payroll release, representing a change in the number of employed people during the previous month apart from farming industry, has positively surprised investors with growth to 215.000 working places compared to 206.000 expected. The number has however declined in parallel with the March results of 245.000.
The next component of the Jobs report, presented to the markets by the Average Hourly Earnings, also did well as it showed an upturn of 0.3%. Keeping in mind that the previous month results were -0.1%, and market consensus expected just 0.2% number, this outcome was quite outstanding.
The Unemployment rate announcement, however, calmed down the excitement, revealing a rise to 5.0%, which was the first expansion since the June last year. That could probably explain that the US dollar stayed unaffected to usually such a significant release, with the US dollar index remaining to trade around 94.50 mark, being its five-month low.
Proceeding to this trading week, it began with the news from Australia. Here, the monthly building approvals number has indicated a significant rise to 3.1% from -6.6% of the March outcome. The retail sales dropped to from 0.3% to 0.0% this month. The AUDUSD nevertheless remained trading at its nine-month high.
Later on, at 9:30 am London time the UK monthly Construction PMI data will come into the spotlight. The indicator of the economic health of the construction industry, this time, is expected to increase slightly to 54.3, up from 54.2 of last time. The number higher than forecasted could likely give support to the weakening British Pound.
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSDM3004042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1455
Target 2: 1.1330
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 1.1330
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSDM3004042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4365
Target 2: 1.4075
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0146
Daily control level: 1.4425
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPYM3004042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 112.50
Target 2: 110.65
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.95
Daily control level: 112.70
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHFM3004042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9640
Target 2: 0.9495
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073
Daily control level: 0.9665
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCADM3004042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3175
Target 2: 1.2890
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142
Daily control level: 1.2850
AUDUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSDM3004042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7760
Target 2: 0.7575
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092
Daily control level: 0.7725
GOLD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GOLDM3004042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1252.00
Target 2: 1212.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 19.74
Daily control level: 1222.00
OIL
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CLK6M3004042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 38.00
Target 2: 35.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44
Daily control level: 39.00
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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 05.04.2016
EURUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSDM3005042016NY.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning’s trading saw EURUSD test the 1.1355 line of control.
A penetration of the 1.1375 level would correspond to a breach of the last isolated high of this morning’s session.
Such an event could see EURUSD test the Daily Pivot (1.1385) and R1 (1.1414).
Alternatively, a sustained breached of the 1.1355 level could see EURUSD test S2 (1.1330)
GBPUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSDM3005042016ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning GBPUSD broke down from its Daily Pivot (1.4258) and the 1.4250 support level.
The price continued its downward course and is now testing S1 (1.4195).
A continuation of the move lower could see GBPUSD test a prior weekly support level (1.4150) and S2 (1.4127).
Alternatively, a failure to sustain a move below S1 could see GBPUSD trade back up to the Daily Pivot.
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPYM3005042016ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY has traded lower for most of the day.
However, a bounce has occurred off S3 (110.31).
A continuation of the correction could see USDJPY trade through both S2 (110.69) and S1 (111.00).
Alternatively, a resumption of the downtrend could see S3 retested.
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHFM3005042016ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
This morning, USDCHF has traded within a small range around the Daily Pivot (0.9588).
A breach of R1 (0.9609) or S1 (0.9562) could offer some guidance on the afternoon direction in prices.
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCADM3005042016ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD has experienced a strong up-day that has brought the price action to touching distance of R3 (1.3200).
A continuation of the move higher, however, could run out of upside momentum as the price action has come close to exhausting the upper limit of its average true range (1.3210).
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/05042016ny.png)
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD has experienced a volatile session with the price action initially testing S1 (0.7575) and then the Daily Pivot (0.7626).
The Daily Pivot, however, was rejected, and this led to a freefall in AUDUSD that sent the price action crashing through S2 (0.7546).
A continuation of the move lower, however, could run out of downside momentum as the price action tests the lower level of today’s average true range (0.7515)
GOLD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GOLDM3005042016ny-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Gold this morning has broken higher as the price action has reversed its three day’s down trend.
Having slashed through R1, R2 and R3 Gold is now testing the upper ATR boundary of 1235.00.
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CLK6M3005042016ny-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Oil has experienced a quiet day as the price action trades at the bottom of a recent downtrend.
A breach of the Daily Pivot (36.00) or S1 (34.84) could offer guidance on the afternoon direction in prices.
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.04.2016
Today at 19:00 pm London time the FOMC minutes for the last meeting will be published. The release could likely put a further downward pressure on the US currency.
The US Dollar continues to decline as the Federal Reserve’s earlier promises were not matched to the actions. The last FOMC meeting held in March also disappointed investors after it decided to take a significantly more dovish stance than the one it undertook in December.
At the last speech, the Fed chairwoman underlined the caution with changes to the monetary policy being considered. The patient approach pushed the dollar downwards, with its index is now trading below 95.00 level, being its five-month low.
The earlier promised four rate hikes in 2016 are now changed to a mere two, and even these are not guaranteed. As the CME Fed Watch Tool shows, the chances that the Fed will increase interest rates in September are around 40% at the moment.
Furthermore, investors give just 18% a chance to the hawkish actions of the Fed in June and 57% in December. Nevertheless, keeping in mind the last speech of Janet Yellen, the future policy will be much more accommodative to the state of the domestic economy, which is represented by the inflation rate and jobs market. The global circumstances will also continue to be observed.
At the moment, the cheap dollar could actually be of a benefit to the US economy as the local production will be supported. Also, that is the way to keep the cost of the domestic debt at affordable levels, which is imperative to the world’s largest economy.
EURUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSDM3006042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1450
Target 2: 1.1310
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070
Daily control level: 1.1400
GBPUSD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSDM3006042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4290
Target 2: 1.4030
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level: 1.4320
USDJPY
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPYM3006042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 111.15
Target 2: 109.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.82
Daily control level: 111.75
USDCHF
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHFM3006042016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9615
Target 2: 0.9500
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0059
Daily control level: 0.9605
USDCAD
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCADM3006042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3255
Target 2: 1.3015
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122
Daily control level: 1.2995
AUDUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSDM3006042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7625
Target 2: 0.7455
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7725
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GOLDM3006042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1250.00
Target 2: 1213.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 18.21
Daily control level: 1214.00
OIL
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CLK6M3006042016-1.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 38.00
Target 2: 35.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.43
Daily control level: 37.25
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.04.2016
EURUSD
(http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSDM300704.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Daily Pivot : 1.1384
S1 : 1.1338
S2 : 1.1279
S3 : 1.1233
R1 : 1.1443
R2 : 1.1489
R3 : 1.1548
GBPUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSDM3007042016.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Daily Pivot : 1.4099
S1 : 1.4027
S2 : 1.3933
S3 : 1.3862
R1 : 1.4193
R2 : 1.4264
R3 : 1.4358
USDJPY
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPYM300704.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Daily Pivot : 109.90
S1 : 109.18
S2 : 108.59
S3 : 107.86
R1 : 110.49
R2 : 111.22
R3 : 111.81
USDCHF
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHFM300704.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Daily Pivot : 0.9569
S1 : 0.9517
S2 : 0.9477
S3 : 0.9425
R1 : 0.9609
R2 : 0.9661
R3 : 0.9701
USDCAD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCADM300704.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Daily Pivot : 1.3111
S1 : 1.3037
S2 : 1.2987
S3 : 1.2912
R1 : 1.3161
R2 : 1.3236
R3 : 1.3286
AUDUSD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSDM300704.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Daily Pivot : 0.7583
S1 : 0.7547
S2 : 0.7496
S3 : 0.7460
R1 : 0.7634
R2 : 0.7669
R3 : 0.7720
GOLD
(http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GOLDM300704.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Daily Pivot : 1223.00
S1 : 1215.00
S2 : 1208.00
S3 : 1200.00
R1 : 1230.00
R2 : 1239.00
R3 : 1245.00
OIL
(http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CLK6M300704.png)
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Daily Pivot : 37.32
S1 : 36.78
S2 : 35.87
S3 : 35.33
R1 : 38.23
R2 : 38.77
R3 : 39.68
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